Thanks for sharing your comments on Lockwood.
Was a bit disappointed we didn't go Abramov but seeing the video and your comments, my hopes are up again. Fingers crossed indeed.
I really like Abramov as well, but i think you also have to admit that there are issues there.
With a
very small Russian kid that has some super slick offensive skills...it's really enticing in terms of "upside" for sure. But you also have to weigh that against the lower-end of projections, and the realities of a small skilled Russian kid with a ton of bad habits to break.
Abramov is very much a boom or complete bust type prospect. If he doesn't make it as a good Top-6 forward, he will not be an NHLer. Period. The skillset and traits are not there to be effective in "bottom-6 minutes" at the NHL level - he'll always be a guy who needs to handle the puck a ton, offensive zone time, skilled linemates, PP minutes, etc. Yet he has a
lot of things to address in his game before he's an NHL Top-6 forward. There's absolutely no guarantee that a guy like Abramov is going to stick around "in the system" in North America for a lot of years if that's how long it takes to build up his game to that point (assuming it's even translatable at all). There's always an "out", where a player like that could go back and become a KHL star if the NHL dream isn't materializing quickly enough.
So much of that comes down to the elements we as fans and hobbyist scouts are not privy to. The interviews. The in person stuff. The human element.
Whereas with a prospect like Lockwood...he's a guy you're going to get into your system with a pretty high degree of certainty. He's going to stick it out in North America - a couple years in college, a couple years in the AHL if that's what it takes. And he's a guy who even if the skill doesn't blossom into an NHL Top-6 Forward...he plays the sort of game where he can be effective and impactful without a cent of PP time and without the premium offensive minutes and linemates. There's "value" in that.
Despite our lack of picks...the reality doesn't change. What you want in a 3rd round pick is...a legitimate, contributing NHL player. You can hope for more, but just getting a great high-energy 3rd liner with some skill out of a 3rd round pick is a good outcome by the numbers. If you get that, you're doing alright.
A solid on-base is useful. Swing and a miss on that home-run ball for a strike doesn't help much at all. Something to always keep in mind imo.