Waived: Canucks place F Sven Baertschi on waivers (Dec 15)

[ginner classic]

An injury-prone player who has never cleared 35 points should not be getting $3.5 million. And you walk away if he does.

A sane person might. There is plenty of precedent from Benning that he'd offer that on a multi-year deal.

 

[F A N]

What upside does Baertschi have? He’s nearly 26. He very like is what he’s shown.

I think Baertschi has shown enough where simply staying healthy and remaining consistent would bump up his overall offensive production. Over 82 games, he's been more or less a 21 goal 42-44 point guy the past two seasons.

At this point I think you look to sign Baertschi to a 1-3 year contract at around a $2.5-3M cap hit?

 

[Melvin]

Who are Baertschis comparables? First one that comes up based on stats is Tommy wingels. I am not very familiar with this player, but roughly 0.5 PPG at the same age. Signed 3x2.5 a few years ago.

Anyone have any better comparables?

 

[CanaFan]

I think Baertschi has shown enough where simply staying healthy and remaining consistent would bump up his overall offensive production. Over 82 games, he's been more or less a 21 goal 42-44 point guy the past two seasons.

At this point I think you look to sign Baertschi to a 1-3 year contract at around a $2.5-3M cap hit?

Sure, that would apply to any player in the league. Consistency is a challenge for 95% of the league.

Why do you expect it to happen to Baertschi at age 26?

 

[sting101]

What upside does Baertschi have? He’s nearly 26. He very like is what he’s shown.

you don't think he has any upside?

 

[LordBacon]

A 2.75 x 3 years deal would be great

 

[ChilliBilly]

sorry but for me Baertchi is the epitome of whats wrong with the team. Mediocre second liner with 0 grit. Fairly skilled, but for all those comparing him to Tatar or others, find me anyone who is even offering a draft pick for him.

We have 10 of this type of player ....

 

[CanaFan]

you don't think he has any upside?

From what he’s shown at age 25?

Not especially. Why would I? Players peak around 23. I’d put my money on Baertschi being what we’ve seen already.

 

[MS]

A sane person might. There is plenty of precedent from Benning that he'd offer that on a multi-year deal.

Well, what we should do and what Benning will do are two entirely different things.

There's no way this player should be getting any more than 2 years and ~$2.5 million/year. He's an incredibly middling, injury-prone player and he needs this team and this situation (which has been very good to him after his NA career was nearly done with Calgary) a lot more than we need him.

This is not the sort of player you invest in long-term, especially with a lot of skill forwards coming down the pipeline. You either sign him short-term - where he does remain useful - or move on.

 

[MS]

From what he’s shown at age 25?

Not especially. Why would I? Players peak around 23. I’d put my money on Baertschi being what we’ve seen already.

Yeah, for how inconsistent he's been on a game-to-game basis, he's actually been extremely consistent in the larger picture since he established himself in the lineup.

After a wobbly start to 15-16, he scored at a 42 point pace/82 GP in the 2nd half of the season. Then scored at a 42 point pace in 16-17. Then scored at a 44-point pace this year.

He turns 26 later this year. He is what he is - an OK 40-45 point 2nd liner who can do a decent job as a 3rd wheel on a line with skill players, but can't drive production himself. And is OK defensively but soft and lacking any sort of intangibles (physical play, PK ability, etc).

This is a useful player at the right price, but not even remotely a core player and not a hard player to replace if the price isn't right.

 

[ginner classic]

Well, what we should do and what Benning will do are two entirely different things.

There's no way this player should be getting any more than 2 years and ~$2.5 million/year. He's an incredibly middling, injury-prone player and he needs this team and this situation (which has been very good to him after his NA career was nearly done with Calgary) a lot more than we need him.

This is not the sort of player you invest in long-term, especially with a lot of skill forwards coming down the pipeline. You either sign him short-term - where he does remain useful - or move on.

You are preaching to the choir. 2.5M is the absolute maximum I'd go. I'd pefer to ship him out if the Sedins come back. With the log jam of middling forwards and legit prospects there is no need to commit significant dollars and term to him.

 

[sting101]

From what he’s shown at age 25?

Not especially. Why would I? Players peak around 23. I’d put my money on Baertschi being what we’ve seen already.

Curious response given what i have seen from Baertschi. But whatever.

Might want to tell Seguin Hall Stone Kuznetsov Schwartz Zucker to name a few taken in the draft a year before Baertschi that they should have peeked at 23. The other part i find curious is that most players are far more complete and consistent as they get into the 25-30 age range?

I get why you would want to trade him before he puts it all together and has a healthy season??

 

[Hit the post]

Curious response given what i have seen from Baertschi. But whatever.

Might want to tell Seguin Hall Stone Kuznetsov Schwartz Zucker to name a few taken in the draft a year before Baertschi that they should have peeked at 23. The other part i find curious is that most players are far more complete and consistent as they get into the 25-30 age range?

I get why you would want to trade him before he puts it all together and has a healthy season??

While I wouldn't want to trade him now either, Seguin did put up 67 points in the NHL at the age of 19 (guess Benning didn't argue hard enough to keep him a Bruin) & 84 points at the age of 22. Taylor Hall also put up 53 points in the NHL at the age of 21 [and 50 points @ 22 in the lockout shortened season]. Chiapet is just a horrible GM in any event (worse than Benning).

 

[MS]

Curious response given what i have seen from Baertschi. But whatever.

Might want to tell Seguin Hall Stone Kuznetsov Schwartz Zucker to name a few taken in the draft a year before Baertschi that they should have peeked at 23. The other part i find curious is that most players are far more complete and consistent as they get into the 25-30 age range?

I get why you would want to trade him before he puts it all together and has a healthy season??

That list of guys is supporting the opposite argument since all of them except for Zucker reached their peak level of play/production at age 22-23. That a guy like Hall is matching his 2012-2014 production this year at age 26 after a dip doesn't really change that.

Most skill players peak early. There are obviously exceptions and outliers, but banking on outliers is bad business.

I don't think anyone is in a 'hurry' to get rid of him but if you can get a Tatar return or if keeping him means a 3-year/$12 million contract ... see ya!

If he can be kept under a reasonable short contract and the best we could get for him is a #2 or #3 pick, then yeah, keep him until it stops making sense to keep him.

 

[sting101]

Yeah, for how inconsistent he's been on a game-to-game basis, he's actually been extremely consistent in the larger picture since he established himself in the lineup.

After a wobbly start to 15-16, he scored at a 42 point pace/82 GP in the 2nd half of the season. Then scored at a 42 point pace in 16-17. Then scored at a 44-point pace this year.

He turns 26 later this year. He is what he is - an OK 40-45 point 2nd liner who can do a decent job as a 3rd wheel on a line with skill players, but can't drive production himself. And is OK defensively but soft and lacking any sort of intangibles (physical play, PK ability, etc).

This is a useful player at the right price, but not even remotely a core player and not a hard player to replace if the price isn't right.

yes this is pretty spot on. Although i disagree slightly about your salary structure.

A 40-45pt LW is 28th to 37th in the league the last 3 seasons and that is a decent 2nd line winger production and Sven doesn't mind going to dirty areas, works hard off the puck and is pretty decent in his own zone.

A smart deal for us would be a 3yr 3million . I would bet his agent would be smart enough to try and do a show me type deal that puts him into UFA and then they can springboard off a bigger production year. As i said earlier his injury may be a good thing for us if Benning doesn't f*** it up and pay for his peak potential.

 

[sting101]

While I wouldn't want to trade him now either, Seguin did put up 67 points in the NHL at the age of 19 (guess Benning didn't argue hard enough to keep him a Bruin) & 84 points at the age of 22. Taylor Hall also put up 53 points in the NHL at the age of 21 [and 50 points @ 22 in the lockout shortened season]. Chiapet is just a horrible GM in any event (worse than Benning).

Taylor Hall and Tyler Seguin are without question having their best most complete hockey seasons ever this year.

If you don't believe me go to their boards and ask their fans. Both taken a year before Baertschi, both were established players.

 

[MS]

yes this is pretty spot on. Although i disagree slightly about your salary structure.

A 40-45pt LW is 28th to 37th in the league the last 3 seasons and that is a decent 2nd line winger production and Sven doesn't mind going to dirty areas, works hard off the puck and is pretty decent in his own zone.

A smart deal for us would be a 3yr 3million . I would bet his agent would be smart enough to try and do a show me type deal that puts him into UFA and then they can springboard off a bigger production year. As i said earlier his injury may be a good thing for us if Benning doesn't **** it up and pay for his peak potential.

If he was actually scoring 40-45 points, maybe. But he isn't. And his injury-proneness has to be factored into the contract.

His last 3 seasons, getting consistent top-6 icetime with PP time, he's ended up providing us 28, 35, and 29 points. He should be taking his 2 years/$5 million and be damned happy about it. Good luck taking your 31-point average season to the open market.

Taylor Hall and Tyler Seguin are without question having their best most complete hockey seasons ever this year.

If you don't believe me go to their boards and ask their fans. Both taken a year before Baertschi, both were established players.

No-one is disputing that players round out their games as they get older. Baertschi will probably get a bit better defensively. But most, in terms of raw production, peak early. As Hall and Seguin did.

 

[Hit the post]

Taylor Hall and Tyler Seguin are without question having their best most complete hockey seasons ever this year.

If you don't believe me go to their boards and ask their fans. Both taken a year before Baertschi, both were established players.

I'm glad Chiapet is the GM of the Oilers (their fans still need to eat alot more humble pie ) - he was the GM that dealt both those guys.

 

[Pip]

Taylor Hall and Tyler Seguin are without question having their best most complete hockey seasons ever this year.

If you don't believe me go to their boards and ask their fans. Both taken a year before Baertschi, both were established players.

They were already high end scorers at an early age. I wouldn’t say that the ‘typical’ development curve for players necessarily works for elite players. For most others, the peak is quite early on in their career. Also, Baertschi hasn’t given us a reason to think he’s going to get better. He might round out his game a little more but I doubt he vastly improving his scoring totals, unless he’s riding shotgun on a really hot line.

 

[Siludin]

Is Baertschi eligible for player-elected salary arbitration this year, or just team-elected arbitration? If he does go that far, what do you see the arbiter awarding him? I think the Canucks should be looking to avoid that situation, personally.

I believe Baertschi is a 20-30-50 guy if he is healthy on a bad Canucks team. On a good Canucks team, I think he has one or two 60+ point seasons in him.

 

[MS]

Is Baertschi eligible for player-elected salary arbitration this year, or just team-elected arbitration? If he does go that far, what do you see the arbiter awarding him? I think the Canucks should be looking to avoid that situation, personally.

I believe Baertschi is a 20-30-50 guy if he is healthy on a bad Canucks team. On a good Canucks team, I think he has one or two 60+ point seasons in him.

His production should logically go DOWN as the team gets better.

He scored at a 44-point pace this year spending most of it on the #1 line with two very good players (Horvat and Boeser) and getting substantial chunks of PP time. No matter if the team gets better, he isn't likely getting a better situation than that.

As guys like Pettersson and Gaudette (hopefully) claim roles and offensive minutes, and with Leipsic now a Green favourite in the fold, Baertschi isn't likely to be getting that same opportunity and stands to be shuffled into more of a traditional 2nd line role. And his production isn't rocketing up by 15-20 points when that happens.

 

[sting101]

That list of guys is supporting the opposite argument since all of them except for Zucker reached their peak level of play/production at age 22-23. That a guy like Hall is matching his 2012-2014 production this year at age 26 after a dip doesn't really change that.

Most skill players peak early. There are obviously exceptions and outliers, but banking on outliers is bad business.

I don't think anyone is in a 'hurry' to get rid of him but if you can get a Tatar return or if keeping him means a 3-year/$12 million contract ... see ya!

If he can be kept under a reasonable short contract and the best we could get for him is a #2 or #3 pick, then yeah, keep him until it stops making sense to keep him.

uhh No.
all of those players listed are having their best most productive years to date and are exceeding any past PPG totals with the exception of Seguin who almost on par with his best ever years is on pace for a career high 45 goals and is being lauded as a good 2 way player for probably the fist time in his career.

On aggregate your right about age and peak performance but you have to account for the player and where he fits into the equation. players like Blake Wheeler Daniel Sedin Alex Steen (for a few off the top of my head) have shown that a dedicated player with a excellent work ethic to continually improve can keep pointing the needle in the right direction. What happens more often than not 1- player gets injured and never regains form. 2- party's like a rock star or gets lazy and can't find consistency 3- takes on more defensive responsibility or 4- is supplanted by a highly skilled youngster who bumps him into a support role and knocks his production down due to mostly 1 and 2 or a stud kid being better and taking prime scoring roles.

i think most of the best players in the league and their coaches would say they were better at 26-28 than they were at 21-24 but for sure the stats support your take.

To bring it back to Baertschi i think he still has upside for a few reasons. 1 he hasn't been able to stay healthy for a whole season 2- The team has been bad. IF we improve and Sven can stay healthy i believe he could put up 45-50pts without question.

 

[CanaFan]

Curious response given what i have seen from Baertschi. But whatever.

Might want to tell Seguin Hall Stone Kuznetsov Schwartz Zucker to name a few taken in the draft a year before Baertschi that they should have peeked at 23. The other part i find curious is that most players are far more complete and consistent as they get into the 25-30 age range?

I get why you would want to trade him before he puts it all together and has a healthy season??

Tyler Seguin put up his career high (84 pts) at age 21/22.
Taylor Hall put up his career high (80 pts) at age 21/22.
Kuznetzov put up his career high (77 pts) at age 23/24.
Jaden Schwartz put up his career high (63 pts) at age 22/23.

Zucker is the only one that fits your pet theory.

You think Baertschi is going to significantly alter his ceiling at age 26? You're certainly welcome to but I don't see any compelling evidence to expect it.

 

[CanaFan]

uhh No.
all of those players listed are having their best most productive years to date and are exceeding any past PPG totals with the exception of Seguin who almost on par with his best ever years is on pace for a career high 45 goals and is being lauded as a good 2 way player for probably the fist time in his career.

On aggregate your right about age and peak performance but you have to account for the player and where he fits into the equation. players like Blake Wheeler Daniel Sedin Alex Steen (for a few off the top of my head) have shown that a dedicated player with a excellent work ethic to continually improve can keep pointing the needle in the right direction. What happens more often than not 1- player gets injured and never regains form. 2- party's like a rock star or gets lazy and can't find consistency 3- takes on more defensive responsibility or 4- is supplanted by a highly skilled youngster who bumps him into a support role and knocks his production down due to mostly 1 and 2 or a stud kid being better and taking prime scoring roles.

i think most of the best players in the league and their coaches would say they were better at 26-28 than they were at 21-24 but for sure the stats support your take.

To bring it back to Baertschi i think he still has upside for a few reasons. 1 he hasn't been able to stay healthy for a whole season 2- The team has been bad. IF we improve and Sven can stay healthy i believe he could put up 45-50pts without question.

So if everything goes right you think Baertschi could be a 45-50 point player instead of a 40-45 pt player?

Better keep him them

 

[CanaFan]

And sure, Baertschi may improve his overall game a bit more. Players tend to improve in that area as they age but that is offset by their increased salary and proximity to UFA. There's a reason why young players are valued more than older players. You could argue Baertschi's value will actually go down at ages 26-28 if he doesn't significantly improve his scoring as teams see less "mystery box" upside and see more of his looming UFA eligibility.