Prospect Info: Canucks draft D Viktor Persson (7th Round, 191st Overall) (Brynäs junior team ---> Kamloops Blazers)

[supercanuck]

I would go so far as to say this

Our drafting out of the CHL has been abysmal for a very long time. Off the top of my head, going back the last 10-15 years, we have Bo, Jake, McCann, Hodgson, and Grabner who have made any impact in the NHL? And those were all 1st rounders (3 top 10s, 1 top 15, 1 late 1st).

 

[VanJack]

Our drafting out of the CHL has been abysmal for a very long time. Off the top of my head, going back the last 10-15 years, we have Bo, Jake, McCann, Hodgson, and Grabner who have made any impact in the NHL? And those were all 1st rounders (3 top 10s, 1 top 15, 1 late 1st).

The challenge in drafting players out of the CHL for the Canucks, is that so many of them seem to plateau after they're drafted. Over the years some of late picks expended on CHL players, particularly blueliners, were so bad they didn't even get signed. In the 2019 draft it doesn't look like Keppen or Focht will amount to much. . Even some of the second-rounders like Woo and Lind, regressed after the Canucks picked them.

I have no idea if they were just marginal picks to begin with, or whether the problem is 'player development'. When the Canucks draft players out of Sweden and Finland, they tend to leave them in their home countries playing in their top pro leagues. And it seems to do wonders for their draft-plus-one and draft-plus-two years.

And although the Canucks only had five picks in the 2020 draft, none of them were drafted out of Major Junior Hockey.

 

[MS]

The CHL is generally extremely overscouted and unless you're looking at Points and Gallaghers and Garlands who have fallen because they were 'too small' it's really hard to get value out of CHL picks in the mid-late rounds.

 

[elitepete]

The CHL is generally extremely overscouted and unless you're looking at Points and Gallaghers and Garlands who have fallen because they were 'too small' it's really hard to get value out of CHL picks in the mid-late rounds.

Agreed. This is especially true for forwards. There are actually a lot of steals when it comes to d and goalies. But I wouldn’t touch a CHL forward after the 2nd round unless it’s a guy that has a huge drop like Point.

 

[sting101]

The CHL is generally extremely overscouted and unless you're looking at Points and Gallaghers and Garlands who have fallen because they were 'too small' it's really hard to get value out of CHL picks in the mid-late rounds.

Agreed. This is especially true for forwards. There are actually a lot of steals when it comes to d and goalies. But I wouldn’t touch a CHL forward after the 2nd round unless it’s a guy that has a huge drop like Point.

I disagree that value cannot be attained as easily as in Europe. In fact below shows a fair degree of value left on the table after the 2nd round. Much of which is not in the too small category. I agree that typically your looking at skating deficiencies or size/strength deficiencies but sometimes it's just a case of a late bloomer like a Tanev or a Gaudette type. European players will be scrutinized every bit as hard as North Americans and when you add the reluctance to come over and spend 3 to 4yrs in the minors or playing a PK 4th line role it has to be a consideration of how many of these marginal players you want to select from Europe to fill out your organizational depth.
3rd round and beyond forwards CHL vs other sources. 2005 to 2015
* captalized are undrafted
* if you add the USHL which would be scouted every bit as heavy as the CHL then it's not really close

whl -Stone Point Gallagher Bjorkstrand Ferland Helm Calvert Z.Smith Eakin Lowry Wagner T.JOHNSON RYAN
ohl - Cirelli J.Anderson Trocheck C.Brown Labanc Mangiapane Athanasiou Shaw Clutterbuck M.Foligno Cizikas Rieder Cousins KAHUN
qhl - Marchand Palat Hoffman Pageau Duclair Blais Joseph Perreault Byron Garland GOURDE MARCHESSAULT ROUSSEL

ushl - Gaudreau Guentzel C.Smith Rust Dzingel Coleman Gaudette Terry Copp Hinostroza IAFALLO VATRANO

ushs - A.Lee Killorn Atkinson Bonino Maroon Haula Wood Foegele ACCIARI SHEARY
jr a - Benn Re.Smith Hyman Kerfoot Heinen BOZAK B.TANEV

swe - Arvidsson Hornqvist Nyquist Olofsson Hagelin Fast Janmark Lindblom Wallmark M.KARLSSON
rus - Dadonov Buchnevich PANARIN
fin - Donskoi
cze - Kase Simon
nor - ZUCCARELLO
aus - RAFFL

 

[MS]

I disagree that value cannot be attained as easily as in Europe. In fact below shows a fair degree of value left on the table after the 2nd round. Much of which is not in the too small category. I agree that typically your looking at skating deficiencies or size/strength deficiencies but sometimes it's just a case of a late bloomer like a Tanev or a Gaudette type. European players will be scrutinized every bit as hard as North Americans and when you add the reluctance to come over and spend 3 to 4yrs in the minors or playing a PK 4th line role it has to be a consideration of how many of these marginal players you want to select from Europe to fill out your organizational depth.
3rd round and beyond forwards CHL vs other sources. 2005 to 2015
* captalized are undrafted
* if you add the USHL which would be scouted every bit as heavy as the CHL then it's not really close

whl -Stone Benn Point Gallagher Bjorkstrand Ferland Helm Calvert Z.Smith Eakin Lowry Wagner T.JOHNSON RYAN
ohl - Cirelli J.Anderson Trocheck C.Brown Labanc Mangiapane Athanasiou Shaw Clutterbuck M.Foligno Cizikas Rieder Cousins KAHUN
qhl - Marchand Palat Hoffman Pageau Duclair Blais Joseph Perreault Byron Garland GOURDE MARCHESSAULT ROUSSEL

ushl - Gaudreau Guentzel C.Smith Rust Dzingel Coleman Gaudette Terry Copp Hinostroza IAFALLO VATRANO

ushs - A.Lee Killorn Atkinson Bonino Maroon Haula Wood Foegele ACCIARI SHEARY
jr a - Re.Smith Hyman Kerfoot Heinen BOZAK B.TANEV

swe - Arvidsson Hornqvist Nyquist Olofsson Hagelin Fast Janmark Lindblom Wallmark M.KARLSSON
rus - Dadonov Buchnevich PANARIN
fin - Donskoi
cze - Kase Simon
nor - ZUCCARELLO
aus - RAFFL

A lot of the guys you're listing are now going way back. Benn was drafted 13 years ago.

Post-2013, rounds 4-7 for the CHL have turned into a wasteland. There's the odd Mangiapane but generally speaking the hit rate is horrific and substantially worse than the USHL/Euro jrs.

It gets harder and harder to get steals out of the CHL. A decade ago, teams were still criminally underrating smallish skill players and overrating big slow donkeys, and some guys slipped through the cracks. That has in large part now corrected and it's exceedingly hard to find value in CHL picks after the top 3 rounds.

 

[sting101]

A lot of the guys you're listing are now going way back. Benn was drafted 13 years ago.

Post-2013, rounds 4-7 for the CHL have turned into a wasteland. There's the odd Mangiapane but generally speaking the hit rate is horrific and substantially worse than the USHL/Euro jrs.

It gets harder and harder to get steals out of the CHL. A decade ago, teams were still criminally underrating smallish skill players and overrating big slow donkeys, and some guys slipped through the cracks. That has in large part now corrected and it's exceedingly hard to find value in CHL picks after the top 3 rounds.

Then show the evidence

What is different about the USHL scouting and the CHL scouting?

I agree with what you said about this year and the Covid virus creating some unique circumstances but the facts are teams are pretty universally just looking for the highest end talents at forward they can find with a preference for a player that can win a puck battle and play a role all things being equal.

 

[F A N]

Then show the evidence

What is different about the USHL scouting and the CHL scouting?

I agree with what you said about this year and the Covid virus creating some unique circumstances but the facts are teams are pretty universally just looking for the highest end talents at forward they can find with a preference for a player that can win a puck battle and play a role all things being equal.

I think it is easier to find later round "gems" from the US high school or USHL than the CHL. The top players in the USHL tend to go to the NTDP program and in that program the 2nd tier guys have their ice time and opportunities limited. So there may gems on that team that didn't get the same opportunities or conversely overrated because they were in that program and piling up the points because they played on the best team against weaker competition (leading other USHL prospects to fall in the draft). We also see some players like Rathbone purposely choose to play high school hockey and quality of competition concerns tend to drop these guys in the draft.

With that said, I don't agree with MS that rounds 4-7 for the CHL have turned into a wasteland. You still see teams finding Dmen later in the draft which reflects past data that percentage wise it's much harder to find top 6 forwards later in the draft than Dmen.

 

[Josepho]

(jamie benn was actually drafted out of the bchl)

 

[MS]

Then show the evidence

What is different about the USHL scouting and the CHL scouting?

I agree with what you said about this year and the Covid virus creating some unique circumstances but the facts are teams are pretty universally just looking for the highest end talents at forward they can find with a preference for a player that can win a puck battle and play a role all things being equal.

The last two measurable drafts (2014/2015) have seen 30/150 non-CHL players drafted rounds 4-7 go on to play 40+ NHL games (20%) while 8/90 CHL players (9%) have met the same criteria. The quality of the CHL players is also substantially worse.

Maybe it's a blip and it was closer a decade + ago, recent results show a very stark difference.

As an aside, good god is the depth in the 2016 draft horrible. There are only 2 guys (Jesper Bratt and Victor Mete) currently in the NHL from rounds 4-7 of that draft. And if you expand it to the 3rd round, the only extra guy you get is Adam Fox.

 

[LickTheEnvelope]

The CHL is generally extremely overscouted and unless you're looking at Points and Gallaghers and Garlands who have fallen because they were 'too small' it's really hard to get value out of CHL picks in the mid-late rounds.

Mark Stone the best one recently?

 

[MS]

Mark Stone the best one recently?

Probably, yeah. A decade ago.

Stone and Gallagher were in the same 2010 draft and hilariously, when our draft list for that draft was leaked, we didn't even have either one on our list.

 

[LickTheEnvelope]

Mark Stone the best one recently?

Actually... how did Palat fall to the end of the 7th round in 2011 with 107 pts in 71 games that year in the Q?
LOL guy literally played with Couturier ... had the same # of points (more goals) in their draft year... Couturier goes 8th overall, Palat goes 208th.

Palat a year older... but still...

 

[MS]

Actually... how did Palat fall to the end of the 7th round in 2011 with 107 pts in 71 games that year in the Q?
LOL guy literally played with Couturier ... had the same # of points (more goals) in their draft year... Couturier goes 8th overall, Palat goes 208th.

Double overager.

I've said this before, but if you look at the 'hits' from the mid-late rounds, they pretty much all fit into a couple categories :

1) Talented guys who fell because they were small.
2) Talented guys who fell because they were slow.
3) Talented guys who slipped through the cracks due to lack of exposure/playing in a weird league.
4) Talented guys who fell because they had been passed over in a previous draft and were late bloomers.

Palat was initially (3) and became (4). He was playing in the poorly-scouted Czech junior league in his initial draft, then became a late bloomer after coming to the CHL but was ignored because he was older.

 

[LickTheEnvelope]

Probably, yeah. A decade ago.

Stone and Gallagher were in the same 2010 draft and hilariously, when our draft list for that draft was leaked, we didn't even have either one on our list.

Just glancing at the last 9 years guys worthwhile drafted in last couple of rounds from CHL:

Palat 2011
Brown 2012
Kubalik 2013
Weeger 2013
Lebanc 2013
Mangiapane 2015

Ya basically 1 guy every other year, strength seems to be mainly from Czech guys who weren't previously scouted... and still were not in CHL?

 

[Vancouver_2010]

Seems like a good player. I am going to ask the obvious, why did he dropped to the seventh round?

 

[Hansen]

The coverage is great and all but we do have to keep in mind he is playing at a Junior A level equivalent

 

[VanJack]

I think one of the things weakening the CHL prospect pool, particularly in rounds 4-7, is the fact that so many top Jr. A prospects are earning hockey scholarships to U.S. schools. A decade ago a lot of them would have graduated to Major Junior. But now they're bypassing the CHL altogether.

As a result, I just don't think the depth of the prospect pool in the CHL is nearly what it was a decade or so ago. The top guys like Kirby Dach, Alexis Lafreniere, Connor McDavid, etc. are still worthy of high first round picks. But after that, the talent falls off the table.

I suppose you can't blame talented players and their parents. If the choice is a full-ride hockey scholarship to a good U.S. university, or riding the buses in the CHL, it's really a bit of a 'no brainer' isn't it?

 

[sting101]

The coverage is great and all but we do have to keep in mind he is playing at a Junior A level equivalent

wouldn't it be the equivalent of CHL?

I think one of the things weakening the CHL prospect pool, particularly in rounds 4-7, is the fact that so many top Jr. A prospects are earning hockey scholarships to U.S. schools. A decade ago a lot of them would have graduated to Major Junior. But now they're bypassing the CHL altogether.

As a result, I just don't think the depth of the prospect pool in the CHL is nearly what it was a decade or so ago. The top guys like Kirby Dach, Alexis Lafreniere, Connor McDavid, etc. are still worthy of high first round picks. But after that, the talent falls off the table.

I suppose you can't blame talented players and their parents. If the choice is a full-ride hockey scholarship to a good U.S. university, or riding the buses in the CHL, it's really a bit of a 'no brainer' isn't it?

This is a good point

 

[Hansen]

wouldn't it be the equivalent of CHL?



This is a good point

No I think its probably closer to JrA instead of Major Junior, but it is the top level of Jr in Sweden. Its difficult because the top players dont really stay in that league, they will either move on to the parent team in Pro or be scooped by Allsvenskan, or even go overseas.

 

[supercanuck]

.....
I suppose you can't blame talented players and their parents. If the choice is a full-ride hockey scholarship to a good U.S. university, or riding the buses in the CHL, it's really a bit of a 'no brainer' isn't it?

Yeah, as a parent, I cannot think of any reasons why I would have my kid choose a WHL team instead. Perhaps maybe if he was chosen by the Giants and can stay home...but even then...full scholarship at a major university is hard to ignore given the chances of making the NHL are so slim.

 

[StreetHawk]

Yeah, as a parent, I cannot think of any reasons why I would have my kid choose a WHL team instead. Perhaps maybe if he was chosen by the Giants and can stay home...but even then...full scholarship at a major university is hard to ignore given the chances of making the NHL are so slim.

You have to decide the option by like age 16. Being realistic, how many CHL players make it to the NHL right after they get drafted? Typically, it would be 1-3 guys right? Then you can up another 5 guys make it in their draft +1 season.

You had Hughes/Kakko make it right away.
I would expect Dach/Byram/Zegras and another guy or two to make it this season.

Overall, it's like 10 guys who make it before what would be their Junior year in College. So, if that is the case, why not get 2 years of college done if it's so rare to play in the NHL at as a teenager?

 

[FreeMcdavid]

Seems like a good player. I am going to ask the obvious, why did he dropped to the seventh round?

Rumors were swirling on draft night that he uses fork and knife to eat pizza.

 

[Hansen]

More draft eligible NA prospects should go play for a European pro team imo like what Matthews did

 

[StreetHawk]

More draft eligible NA prospects should go play for a European pro team imo like what Matthews did

Made sense for Mathews due to him having a late birthday. For guys like that such as Eichel, Tavares, Laf, etc it would make sense as an example.