Post-Game Talk: Canucks 3 @ Habs 4 (OT) || *unintelligble yelling*

[iceburg]

TBH we're just a mediocre team, Vrabata and Hamhuis will be gone and we'll have 2/3 years of top 5 picks.

The experience the 3 rookie forwards are getting is invaluable, add another 4 and we have a top 9

As long as the Sedins are here those top 5 picks will actually be top 10....unless San Jose and Anaheim continue to struggle then they'll be top 15.

 

[JuniorNelson]

The injuries this season have been precise in neutering the team. Without Prust there is no raucous forward. Without Sbisa there is no hard hitting defenseman. Without Sutter, they are slow up the middle. Without Markstrom, Miller was overused.

The Sedins and Vrbata had good years last season. This season the Sedins seem too slow and Vrbata seems less interested. Desjardins should be running his bench differently, IMO, to shelter older players. The older players are simply gassed in the third! This is puzzling on a rookie laden roster.

 

[PM]

Take away enough defensemen and this team will bottom out regardless of the Sedins. A long term Tanev injury would do the trick. Losing Hamhuis as well would mean another 20 minutes per night that has to be played by one of our replacement level dmen.

 

[PM]

The injuries this season have been precise in neutering the team. Without Prust there is no raucous forward. Without Sbisa there is no hard hitting defenseman. Without Sutter, they are slow up the middle. Without Markstrom, Miller was overused.

The Sedins and Vrbata had good years last season. This season the Sedins seem too slow and Vrbata seems less interested. Desjardins should be running his bench differently, IMO, to shelter older players. The older players are simply gassed in the third! This is puzzling on a rookie laden roster.

Honestly the injuries have not been bad at all. Losing Tanev, Edler or a Sedin would be catastrophically worse. Miller would probably have received almost as many starts anyways, maybe one less, if Markstrom was healthy.

 

[Huggy]

As long as the Sedins are here those top 5 picks will actually be top 10....unless San Jose and Anaheim continue to struggle then they'll be top 15.

Any team that misses the playoffs has a growing chance of a top 3 pick

You can't convince me the Sedins alone will take us out of bottom 8.

And if they do they show 0 signs of not being as effective when the kids start hitting their prime.

If anaheim and SJ are below us than top lel at Kesler

 

[alternate]

The thing with Sbisa, is that he can be to the PK, what Weber should be to the PP (but hasn't been, and probably just isn't outside of that isolated stretch).

And when it comes to defensive play, Sbisa is someone who can actually engage in what's going on around him. Weber can't, and willfully doesn't do so. Weber avoids puck battles like the plague, pawning them off on teammates left right and center, and when he does get isolated in those situations where he has to engage in them...he loses, almost every time.

Now Sbisa has his obvious glaring weaknesses when it comes to doing the right thing with the puck on his stick, but i've said it before...the biggest reason this is so glaring, is the amount of times he's on the "front lines" so to speak, actually getting possession back. First into the corners, pressuring the puck carrier, cordoning them off in an area and dictating their movement with his stick and body.

Now, that doesn't mean Sbisa is a great player or anything. But there are things he does do well. And that Hutton-Sbisa pairing seemed to be helping mitigate his shortcomings as a puck-handling defenceman.

And quite frankly...when Sbisa ****s up...it's because he's trying to do something.

When Weber ****s up...it's usually because he isn't doing anything at all. In addition to his **** ups where he turns the puck over or botches his attempt at avoiding a physical play by throwing the puck away, and because he's not actually a very talented "puck mover" at all. He's an "offensive zone defenceman". That's where he's good...and he hasn't even been that this year.

Just makes watching Weber so immensely frustrating. People give Sven a hard time for being a "perimeter player" and "soft"...my goodness what does that make Weber.

Good post, agree completely.

To me, and this won't be widely agrred with, if you take away the one or two pizzas per game (say approximately 30 seconds of his 18mins each game) Sbisa brings elements to this bluelune corp no one else does. Whether it's the odd big hit to keep players honrst, or just playing whack a mole in front of the net, Luca brings a degree of "difficult to play against" no one else comes close to. Of course you can't just completely ignore his pizzas, and his contract is a bit of a rookie mistake by this front office, but you need at least one guy that will leave a mark on opposition forwards.

I'm hesitant to use Donnie Taylor as any sort of "authority" but the other day he was talking about a time he sat behind the net for a game and it changed his perspective on Sbisa. Said he really got to see Sbisa working guys overmin front of the net, and battling on the wall etc. Things that frequently are outside the camera shot on tv. We miss that with Sbisa out of the line up.

It would be one thing if Weber produced significantly more, but outside a handful of flukey goals last season, he doesn't. Sbisa certainly wins significantly more puck battles though. I definitely prefer Sbisa, and like it or not, I don't see how anyone can argue at this point that Sbisa isn't currently the 5th best defenceman we have (as sad as that is).

But really imo the issue isn't Sbisa or Weber. Sbisa imo is a solid 3rd pairing guy, and I don't hate Weber as a 7/8 guy. Sbisa needs the right partner though, and Weber shouldn't be playing extended streaks of games. But really the big problem is we currently don't have a 3rd or 4th guy --Hamhuis is deteriorating quickly, and Hutton isn't ready. If we had a solid 2nd pairing, neither Sbisa nor Weber would be such big issues.

 

[biturbo19]

Good post, agree completely.

To me, and this won't be widely agrred with, if you take away the one or two pizzas per game (say approximately 30 seconds of his 18mins each game) Sbisa brings elements to this bluelune corp no one else does. Whether it's the odd big hit to keep players honrst, or just playing whack a mole in front of the net, Luca brings a degree of "difficult to play against" no one else comes close to. Of course you can't just completely ignore his pizzas, and his contract is a bit of a rookie mistake by this front office, but you need at least one guy that will leave a mark on opposition forwards.

I'm hesitant to use Donnie Taylor as any sort of "authority" but the other day he was talking about a time he sat behind the net for a game and it changed his perspective on Sbisa. Said he really got to see Sbisa working guys overmin front of the net, and battling on the wall etc. Things that frequently are outside the camera shot on tv. We miss that with Sbisa out of the line up.

It would be one thing if Weber produced significantly more, but outside a handful of flukey goals last season, he doesn't. Sbisa certainly wins significantly more puck battles though. I definitely prefer Sbisa, and like it or not, I don't see how anyone can argue at this point that Sbisa isn't currently the 5th best defenceman we have (as sad as that is).

But really imo the issue isn't Sbisa or Weber. Sbisa imo is a solid 3rd pairing guy, and I don't hate Weber as a 7/8 guy. Sbisa needs the right partner though, and Weber shouldn't be playing extended streaks of games. But really the big problem is we currently don't have a 3rd or 4th guy --Hamhuis is deteriorating quickly, and Hutton isn't ready. If we had a solid 2nd pairing, neither Sbisa nor Weber would be such big issues.

I'm still not sold on this idea of Hamhuis deteriorating quickly, so much as he maybe just can't carry a garbage partner to the degree being asked of him, in "2nd pairing" type minutes.

But i think the bolded is absolutely the problem here. And it's been a glaring issue since well before the season started. This team is, and always was one solid "top-4D" short of a blueline you could feel good about.

Edler-Tanev
Hamhuis-#4
Hutton-Sbisa

...would be a blueline i think you could feel pretty good about most nights. That's not a bad group. And having a guy like Bartkowski (or even Weber i guess) in reserve isn't that bad.

Not asking the world for a solid, proven #4D there either. But without that as we are...it just slides everybody else up and juggles them around in roles they're not ready or suited for, or capable of. Just puts everybody out of sorts and out of place.

And when injuries strike, even to a Luca Sbisa as they have...it goes from "suspect" to "bad".

Not really sure how much can be done about it now though, in season. Time has really passed to shore things up without expending assets.

 

[CanaFan]

As long as the Sedins are here those top 5 picks will actually be top 10....unless San Jose and Anaheim continue to struggle then they'll be top 15.

Not sure how true this is. Based on what we've seen so far this season, I'd argue our fortunes are more heavily tied to the play of Miller than to the Sedins.

First 4 games of the season:

3W 0L 1OTL 0.875 WINNING% PROJECTED 144 PTS

SEDINS -> 4 PTS IN 4 GAMES (1.0 PPG)

MILLER -> .955 sv%


Last 15 games:

4W 6L 5OTL 0.433 WINNING% PROJECTED 71 PTS

SEDINS -> 27 PTS IN 15 GAMES (1.8 PPG)

MILLER -> .897 sv%


While other factors are certainly at play (injuries, PP conversion, coaching), the biggest swing between the team's hot start and 15 game swoon since is the play of Miller, whose sv% has dropped from elite to AHL-quality. And this is despite the fact that the Sedins combined for just 4 points during the 4 game hot start and have nearly doubled that pace during the swoon (27 in 15). Goaltending > PPG when it comes to driving winning%.

Seems like our fortunes are more significantly tied to the play of Miller and Markstrom than Daniel and Hank. And the winning % of our last 15 games projects to just a 71 point pace, which is what 26th place Carolina finished with last year.

Anything is possible for this group honestly.

 

[Peen]

Hamhuis is fine for this season and next.

The issue is that he's going to want a contract that will be with minimum two year term unless he's planning on retiring. Benning prior to the season said it's fair to say they'd be re-signed or traded. I don't think they want to re-sign either which is why I think they're both dealt by the deadline.

 

[Verviticus]

Not sure how true this is. Based on what we've seen so far this season, I'd argue our fortunes are more heavily tied to the play of Miller than to the Sedins.

First 4 games of the season:

3W 0L 1OTL 0.875 WINNING% PROJECTED 144 PTS

SEDINS -> 4 PTS IN 4 GAMES (1.0 PPG)

MILLER -> .955 sv%


Last 15 games:

4W 6L 5OTL 0.433 WINNING% PROJECTED 71 PTS

SEDINS -> 27 PTS IN 15 GAMES (1.8 PPG)

MILLER -> .897 sv%


While other factors are certainly at play (injuries, PP conversion, coaching), the biggest swing between the team's hot start and 15 game swoon since is the play of Miller, whose sv% has dropped from elite to AHL-quality. And this is despite the fact that the Sedins combined for just 4 points during the 4 game hot start and have nearly doubled that pace during the swoon (27 in 15). Goaltending > PPG when it comes to driving winning%.

Seems like our fortunes are more significantly tied to the play of Miller and Markstrom than Daniel and Hank. And the winning % of our last 15 games projects to just a 71 point pace, which is what 26th place Carolina finished with last year.

Anything is possible for this group honestly.

this is really poor analysis. you're using a sample of four games where miller had a .955. no **** we did well there

 

[CanaFan]

this is really poor analysis. you're using a sample of four games where miller had a .955. no **** we did well there

What are you looking for, a peer reviewed article? It's a message board mate and we're a whopping 19 games into the season. I'll definitely crank up the statistical rigour on the next post though, lol.

 

[Verviticus]

you missed the point. if I said that our record in games that we have more goals than the other team is 1.00 you'd recognize that the chosen sample is stupid. same thing here. of course we win games when miller does well

 

[CanaFan]

you missed the point. if I said that our record in games that we have more goals than the other team is 1.00 you'd recognize that the chosen sample is stupid. same thing here. of course we win games when miller does well

Except that's not what the poster I was responding to said was the reason we would never draft top 5. He postulated only that the Sedins would prevent us ever drafting top 5, not the play of Miller. Yet as the last 15 games has shown, our record (pace for 71 pts) is driven more heavily by Miller's ****** sav% than by Hank&Dank's near PPG.

What point are you even arguing anyway?

 

[Verviticus]

that your point is flawed and not true, on account of you drawing conclusions from a bad sample. this wasn't onvious?

your sedin sample was reasonable. your miller sample was impossible. you don't see why this causes a problem?

 

[Verviticus]

look, I hate ryan miller. I'd jump at the opportunity to throw him under the bus and back up, but the example you provided just isn't useful

 

[CanaFan]

that your point is flawed and not true, on account of you drawing conclusions from a bad sample. this wasn't onvious?

your sedin sample was reasonable. your miller sample was impossible. you don't see why this causes a problem?

I think you've lost the plot mate.

My *point* is that the Canucks CAN finish bottom 5 because our fortunes are tied to Miller's play more than they are to the Sedins play. Both sets of games - the first 4 and the last 15 - support that.

So no, I don't believe anything I've stated or how I support it is *flawed*.

The only thing flawed is your logic in saying my analysis is bad based on parroting my exact conclusions back at me (i.e. that Miller's play obviously drives the team's win%).

 

[CanaFan]

look, I hate ryan miller. I'd jump at the opportunity to throw him under the bus and back up, but the example you provided just isn't useful

My example of 12 games where we are under .500 and Miller's play has been terrible isn't useful?

Ok ...

 

[Addison Rae]

I'm still not sold on this idea of Hamhuis deteriorating quickly, so much as he maybe just can't carry a garbage partner to the degree being asked of him, in "2nd pairing" type minutes.

But i think the bolded is absolutely the problem here. And it's been a glaring issue since well before the season started. This team is, and always was one solid "top-4D" short of a blueline you could feel good about.

Edler-Tanev
Hamhuis-#4
Hutton-Sbisa

...would be a blueline i think you could feel pretty good about most nights. That's not a bad group. And having a guy like Bartkowski (or even Weber i guess) in reserve isn't that bad.

Not asking the world for a solid, proven #4D there either. But without that as we are...it just slides everybody else up and juggles them around in roles they're not ready or suited for, or capable of. Just puts everybody out of sorts and out of place.

And when injuries strike, even to a Luca Sbisa as they have...it goes from "suspect" to "bad".

Not really sure how much can be done about it now though, in season. Time has really passed to shore things up without expending assets.

if only we had a guy who's shown to be a minute eater in tough comp with hamhuis (Jason garrison)

 

[Verviticus]

I think you've lost the plot mate.

My *point* is that the Canucks CAN finish bottom 5 because our fortunes are tied to Miller's play more than they are to the Sedins play. Both sets of games - the first 4 and the last 15 - support that.

So no, I don't believe anything I've stated or how I support it is *flawed*.

The only thing flawed is your logic in saying my analysis is bad based on parroting my exact conclusions back at me (i.e. that Miller's play obviously drives the team's win%).

you still havent understood anything i said here

edit: nah, nevermind. you're aware that i think your conclusion is bad and i dont feel you'll understand my explanation. good talk

 

[CanaFan]

you still havent understood anything i said here

your sedin sample was reasonable. your miller sample was impossible. you cant compare these to make a conclusion.

You can throw the first sample (4 games) in the ****ter if you want, it arrives at the exact same conclusion. As I stated, BOTH samples support the exact same conclusion so even if you think one is *bad* it is incorrect to conclude that the entire of the analysis is flawed.

 

[lawrence]

TBH we're just a mediocre team, Vrabata and Hamhuis will be gone and we'll have 2/3 years of top 5 picks.

The experience the 3 rookie forwards are getting is invaluable, add another 4 and we have a top 9

man... if we can turn Miller, Vrbatta, and Hamhius into 1st round picks from other buyers, I'm down for that. Time to rebuild, this road trip kinda tells, it's really time to move on. Burrows might get us something good too, since he has an additional year on his contract at a not so bad cap hit.

 

[CanaFan]

you still havent understood anything i said here

edit: nah, nevermind. you're aware that i think your conclusion is bad and i dont feel you'll understand my explanation. good talk

Maybe because you haven't really *said* anything. You are like the person playing Pictionary who draws two lines and a wiggle then sits back and waits for the other person to decipher their work of art. And when you ask for more clues they just circle what they've already drawn and then throw up their hands in frustration.

 

[Verviticus]

Maybe because you haven't really *said* anything. You are like the person playing Pictionary who draws two lines and a wiggle then sits back and waits for the other person to decipher their work of art. And when you ask for more clues they just circle what they've already drawn and then throw up their hands in frustration.

didnt you reply to that already?

 

[Pip]

I don't really understand the analysis. Of course any team is going to have a much better record when they get elite goaltending then terrible goaltending. Not even the top teams can really overcome that.

 

[Verviticus]

hes trying to say [good miller] + [bad sedins] = win, [bad miller] + [good sedins] = loss, and thus this team has a respectable chance of a very high pick regardless whether or not our top line is firing (in contrast to the popular opinion that the team only goes as far as henrik and daniel)