It's just so hard to guess what 'balanced' NHL'rs are going to produce. Bowman, Nash, Nestrasil, Ruutu, J. Williams. They all have kind of a similar set of physical abilities/skills. Nothing stands out, nothing that weak.
I wasn't high on Nestrasil, but he's been chugging along for a while now. Although if he's a 40-50 point player, he won't be on our 3rd line.
I mentioned this once before and somebody took me to task. It's OK. Keep on hatin'.
I think it's great that wallym mentioned Justin Williams, because I talked to Justin about just this situation for a story I wrote in 2004. I asked him *how* he took the step from prospect to NHL top-6 regular. He said it was all about confidence. Kevyn Adams heard him and agreed so strongly that he essentially forced his way into the story. The three of us talked for an hour.
The gist is that according to these guys, players have to make the conscious decision not to be a fringe guy, or a prospect any longer. They have to believe they belong in the league and can put up points, and take that attitude to the ice with them every shift. If you think of yourself as a prospect, you'll remain a prospect.
At some point, the guys who are eventually successful have to ask themselves, "do I want to be a prospect forever, or do I want to play in this league?" And that really goes for everyone. Alexandre Daigle and Patrik Stefan weren't busts because they didn't have skill and talent. They were busts because they accepted being fringe guys.
Confidence comes first. Then success. Not the other way around.
I know you guys will disagree, but I've talked to over 100 NHLers in my career and every one of them will back me up on this.