I would like for someone to explain how Dubas handing out fair contracts will somehow cause a lock out. How is that even connected in your head?
Younger players pulling most of the money creates a level of uncertainty for the club while giving guaranteed stability to the player. You're paying a premium for a player that is not an entirely known quantity (let's say, Nylander) relative to a free agent who is 27+ and certainly a known (mediocre) quantity. Nylander could improve drastically or get worse and then you've shot yourself in the foot years earlier than you had to.
As a GM, you're increasing risk by paying a premium for an RFA.
We have the opposite situation now. Most younger players have no leverage and no options, regardless of how well they perform and especially so if they improve. Some players - Couturier, Scheifele - are underpaid relative to their importance. The only ones who aren't getting fought hard by GMs are on the McDavid, Matthews level for obvious reasons: they are clearly top 10 players in the league. But when a Draisaitl gets the contract he does - where he was prematurely rewarded for a small body of work (even if he's a great player) - it opens up an opportunity for similar short- term performances to be rewarded and GMs are now making the same dumb mistakes but earlier in the process, which will f*** a team up even more. You're operating with less information than you used to.
And lost in all of this is that a whole bunch of mid-tier players are getting squeezed by the cap hits of star players and the cheapness of players on ELC. Guys who are on the wrong side of 25 can't be too happy with the current climate.
These young stars should get rewarded, it's absolutely logical that they do. But a lot more pain is coming to other, non-star players and fans of teams with dumb GMs. That's why a lockout might be on the horizon. And Dubas isn't to blame for any of this.