Can/Will the flyers make the playoffs?

[Appleyard]

Most surprising thing about this season tbh. You gotta think it picks up in the 2nd half.

Our on ice sh% is still only at 7.6% as well. (but regressing to mean massively... 9.5% over the last 21 games.) I would expect it finishes in the ~8.6-9% range. Which is right around league average.

We are at 90 point pace with some pretty bad luck in the goals department. And our goalies are at .919 sv%...

Which while it may seem grea since the start of the 2012-13 season Mason and Neuvirth have combined to stop 6626/7202 shot in that time for a combined average of .920 sv%... in over 13000 minutes. Which is a heck of a large sample even for goalies.

Had the Flyers shot at the 8.9% that is league average, and Flyers average, since 2012-13 they would have 109 goals this season, ie 16 more than currently.

Had the Flyers goalies posted a .920 sv% this season instead of .919 sv% they would have allowed 1 less 5 goal. (106 instead of 107.)

So statistically they have lost 17 goal difference due to 'luck'. They would be at +3 if all things were equal with 109 for, 106 against...

 

[markzab]

Our on ice sh% is still only at 7.6% as well. (but regressing to mean massively... 9.5% over the last 21 games.) I would expect it finishes in the ~8.6-9% range. Which is right around league average.

We are at 90 point pace with some pretty bad luck in the goals department. And our goalies are at .919 sv%...

Which while it may seem grea since the start of the 2012-13 season Mason and Neuvirth have combined to stop 6626/7202 shot in that time for a combined average of .920 sv%... in over 13000 minutes. Which is a heck of a large sample even for goalies.

Had the Flyers shot at the 8.9% that is league average, and Flyers average, since 2012-13 they would have 109 goals this season, ie 16 more than currently.

Had the Flyers goalies posted a .920 sv% this season instead of .919 sv% they would have allowed 1 less 5 goal. (106 instead of 107.)

So statistically they have lost 17 goal difference due to 'luck'. They would be at +3 if all things were equal with 109 for, 106 against...

You had me at hello.

 

[OzFlyers]

I can see Montreal missing the playoffs even if Price gets back.

 

[Curufinwe]

i HIGHLY disagree. the Coyotes also play in a much more difficult conference

nearly every single team in the Central crushes the Flyers in a playoff series

Not Nashville and Winnipeg. What a defensive ****-show that was last night. Rinne the All-Star is now down to .902 for the season.

 

[Rich Nixon]

We have all of our games against the Penguins left, so...

 

[Vlad*]

Not Nashville and Winnipeg. What a defensive ****-show that was last night. Rinne the All-Star is now down to .902 for the season.

Winnipeg they can beat but it'd probably be messy

Nashville probably beats them though. i can see it now, Weber + Josi is constantly on our top line while the secondary scoring is nowhere to be found. although it's certainly possible considering how bad Rinne has been

 

[Rebels57]

Winnipeg they can beat but it'd probably be messy

Nashville probably beats them though. i can see it now, Weber + Josi is constantly on our top line while the secondary scoring is nowhere to be found. although it's certainly possible considering how bad Rinne has been

Predators are following the same mold the Flyers did under Laviolette.

1st season was the best.

2nd season you saw his lack of defensive structure start to rear it's ugly head. Doesn't matter how skilled your defensemen are if the structure is all wrong.

 

[Rebels57]

Winnipeg they can beat but it'd probably be messy

Nashville probably beats them though. i can see it now, Weber + Josi is constantly on our top line while the secondary scoring is nowhere to be found. although it's certainly possible considering how bad Rinne has been

With the way the Couturier line is playing, and a group of defensemen more capable of moving the puck and scoring, why would our secondary scoring be nowhere to found in a series against Nashville?

Ellis and Eckholm aren't good enough to shut-down our secondary scoring game in, game out.

 

[Vlad*]

With the way the Couturier line is playing, and a group of defensemen more capable of moving the puck and scoring, why would our secondary scoring be nowhere to found in a series against Nashville?

Ellis and Eckholm aren't good enough to shut-down our secondary scoring game in, game out.

because their secondary scoring is terrible. they have one of the worst goals for in the league. Couturier has been playing well and Schenn is decent but other than that i don't trust any of them to do much of anything.

it took Read until January against a team that didn't have 2 of their best players to stop massacring the line he was on and have a decent game. Raffl, Bellemare, Read, White and *gasp* Umberger etc just isn't going to cut it.

 

[Appleyard]

Toronto lose, Carolina OT loss, Boston win, Tampa win but Pens get OT point. Not a good night in standings around us, not bad either.

#1: Washington: .802% (132 point pace)
#2: Florida: .648% (106 point pace)
#3: Islanders: .602% (99 point pace)
#4: Detroit: .602% (99 point pace)
#5: Rangers: .593% (97 point pace)
#6: Boston: .570% (93 point pace)
#7: Tampa Bay: .568% (93 point pace)
#8: Montreal: .557% (91 point pace)
#9: Philly: .549% (90 point pace)
#10: Pittsburgh: .547% (90 point pace)
#11: Ottawa: .523% (86 point pace)
#12: New Jersey: .522% (86 point pace)
#13: Carolina: .522% (86 point pace)
#14: Toronto: .464% (76 point pace)
#15: Buffalo: .432% (71 point pace)
#16: Columbus: .400% (66 point pace)

A win vs the Rags tomorrow would mean we jumped Montreal in point %, going to .560.

If not being greedy 3 pts this weekend would be great... especially if the win was against the Rags

 

[TheLegendkiller]

Wow...we have a **** ton of games on hand on like everybody. Its like 3-5 games.

 

[Appleyard]

Point pace standings after tonight:

#1: Washington: .789% (129 point pace)
#2: Florida: .633% (104 point pace)
#3: Detroit: .600% (98 point pace)
#4: Islanders: .600% (98 point pace)
#5: Rangers: .589% (97 point pace)
#6: Boston: .580% (95 point pace)
#7: Tampa Bay: .578% (95 point pace)
#8: Philly: .558% (92 point pace)
#9: Pittsburgh: .557% (91 point pace)
#10: Montreal: .543% (89 point pace)
#11: New Jersey: .533% (87 point pace)
#12: Ottawa: .533% (87 point pace)
#13: Carolina: .511% (84 point pace)
#14: Toronto: .453% (74 point pace)
#15: Buffalo: .444% (73 point pace)
#16: Columbus: .413% (68 point pace)

We are in the point pace playoffs! WOOOOOO!

If the Flyers finish the season at the pace they are currently on they will very likely have a ~50:50 shot at the playoffs. Though as it stands our ROW could go against us.

Pens, Isles and Bruins games in the next week or so are massive. Tbh more than half our games up to the trade deadline are massive in actuality.

Carolina are close to out now realistically tbh... they will need ~44 points in 35 games to have a decent shot. That is .629% hockey, 103 point pace and 20-11-4. They could come back... but will need a pretty herculean effort.

Toronto (~need 24-10-5), Buffalo (~need 24-9-4) and Columbus (~need 25-7-4) may as well be done.

 

[Hurricane28]

I didn't realize how far Washington was ahead. My god

 

[Embiid]

Washington is playoff jinxed....they are very good but I still think they will choke come playoffs....

 

[usahockey22flyers]

Thanks @appleyard for the awesome stats!

Apparently the Caps are "going all in", I wonder if they can keep up that ridiculous pace.

 

[whitstifier]

Washington is playoff jinxed....they are very good but I still think they will choke come playoffs....

I'm not so sure... Washington has never been this stacked IMO.

 

[beetee15]

i mean 2010 they were pretty stacked


edit* they have better goaltending now

 

[whitstifier]

i mean 2010 they were pretty stacked


edit* they have better goaltending now

Much better goaltending. The defense is more balanced too.

 

[OzFlyers]

The Flyers are flying under the radar at the moment with these games in hand. Win 2 out of 3 before the break and we will be in a good position.

 

[Curufinwe]

13th in the league going into tonight's game.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

The key is going to be beating the teams we should be beating. This team over the last few years seems to play very well against good opponents, but then slip up against bad opponents. Games like tonight are games that they really have to win or at least get an OTL point.

 

[Bob Clarke Fan Club]

Their power play just isn't this bad, right the power play and be a bit better on the PK and a spot should be there for the taking. Lots of reasons to be optimistic. Unless that optimism was centered around a top 5 pick in the draft. Flyers are playing everyone tough and clawing back against some pretty tough defensive clubs.

 

[FlyersFanz]

I can see Montreal missing the playoffs even if Price gets back.

I don't think Price will be back..maybe by the playoffs if Habs make it. There's rumors he may need knee surgery which is probably true because Habs haven't said when he's coming back and getting Scrivens was the first clue that Price may be out for a while.

 

[StoneHands]

I haven't see this much fight night in and night out from a Flyers team in a long time.

The Flyers were shut out twice in a row starting exactly two months ago today. In the 23 games since then, they are 14-6-3. In that span, the Flyers have only lost by more than 1 goal (not counting empty netters) 4 times and only 1 of those games did they lose by more than 2 goals. The Flyers goalies have not allowed more than 4 goals in that stretch and they have allowed 2 goals or less in 15 of those 23 games. In the 8 games that they allowed either 3 or 4 goals, they are 4-2-2.

Basically this team is in almost every single game.

For comparison, in the first 20 games of the season they went 6-9-5 and in those games they lost by 2 or more goals 8 times and 6 of those games they lost by 3 or more goals.

 

[Striiker]

I'm going to be so salty if we end up picking 14th....