Can/Will the flyers make the playoffs?

[StoneHands]

I still don't get why the Eastern Conference has 16 teams and the West only has 14. 8 teams out of 14 making the playoffs is a joke. The Flyers currently sit in 12th in the East but they would be in 7th in the West with 2-3 games in hand on the teams chasing them.

 

[orangey]

I still don't get why the Eastern Conference has 16 teams and the West only has 14. 8 teams out of 14 making the playoffs is a joke. The Flyers currently sit in 12th in the East but they would be in 7th in the West with 2-3 games in hand on the teams chasing them.

Because NHLOL.

 

[sobrien]

Hell yeah they can make it. It'll be close though, definitely a fringe situation.

 

[Vikke]

I think it'll come close, but no cigar. Which, probably, is for the better in the long run, but god damn I miss watching the Flyers in the playoffs when they're not in there.

 

[briererocks]

I still don't get why the Eastern Conference has 16 teams and the West only has 14. 8 teams out of 14 making the playoffs is a joke. The Flyers currently sit in 12th in the East but they would be in 7th in the West with 2-3 games in hand on the teams chasing them.

Because the west is so much better than the east. In the east, Winnipeg is a playoff team as is Colorado.

More seriously, when they do expand they will add a team to the west and not the east so it is less unfair.

 

[Larry44]

The forwards and goaltending are solid, esp. the new lines. The D is coming around too. It's there for them, they just have to keep winning.

Every game is important, esp. vs. the teams they are chasing. They are at 25% odds of making it right now...

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Metropolitan/Philadelphia.html

Beat Boston 3-2, playoff odds up 6.2 to 24.9%
45 points 19 15-7

 

[Appleyard]

The forwards and goaltending are solid, esp. the new lines. The D is coming around too. It's there for them, they just have to keep winning.

Every game is important, esp. vs. the teams they are chasing. They are at 25% odds of making it right now...

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Metropolitan/Philadelphia.html

Beat Boston 3-2, playoff odds up 6.2 to 24.9%
45 points 19 15-7

Yeh, roughly speaking it breaks down like:

Flyers have a ~50% chance of getting to 92 points. If they get to 92 points they will have a ~50% chance of being a playoff team.

Arizona, Colorado, St. Louis & Chicago for wins tonight please... Isles vs Rags not going to OT.

3pts this weekend as well I would be happy with!

 

[briererocks]

The forwards and goaltending are solid, esp. the new lines. The D is coming around too. It's there for them, they just have to keep winning.

Every game is important, esp. vs. the teams they are chasing. They are at 25% odds of making it right now...

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Metropolitan/Philadelphia.html

Beat Boston 3-2, playoff odds up 6.2 to 24.9%
45 points 19 15-7

These numbers are almost meaningless because the margin of error is so large. That is, the flyers playoff odds increased from 18.7 to 24.9% with a margin of error I'm guessing in the neighborhood of 60% assuming a 5% error rate. That is, there is a 95% chance that the probability the flyers make the playoffs is between 0 and 84.9%. Not very informative.

 

[Appleyard]

I mean, if I were a betting man I reckon this is what happens from here:

Washington & Florida are virtually in.
Buffalo, Columbus & Toronto are out already tbh.

So with that in mind:

Detroit & Montreal go on decent runs and basically secure spots.

Islanders & Rangers fall back into the pack.

Flyers, Boston, Penguins & Tampa keep trucking along at a similar pace.

Ottawa and the Debs fall off. Schneider either gets injured or cannot keep bailing the Devils out like he has so far. Hoffman & Ryan cannot continue their unsustainable levels of production and without the puck luck they have had the Sens have to rely on Karlsson, Stone & Turris to pull them through but they cannot.

Carolina make a real push, but it is too much and they can't make the group to be back in race by end of year. They still have an outside shot with 5gms left, but like ~5 points behind.

Which leaves:

Rangers, Islanders, Flyers & Penguins fighting for 2nd seed in Met.
Rangers, Islanders, Flyers, Penguins, Tampa & Boston fighting for playoff spots.

And the last 5 games of the season will decide which of these 6 get the 4 spots.

 

[Appleyard]

These numbers are almost meaningless because the margin of error is so large. That is, the flyers playoff odds increased from 18.7 to 24.9% with a margin of error I'm guessing in the neighborhood of 60% assuming a 5% error rate. That is, there is a 95% chance that the probability the flyers make the playoffs is between 0 and 84.9%. Not very informative.

Just keep the number 92 in mind... if the Flyers can get on pace for that they have a very good shot... as it is very likely 92 is going to be the cut-off.

 

[Striiker]

These games in hand we have over all the teams in front of us are going to be every important.

 

[briererocks]

I mean, if I were a betting man I reckon this is what happens from here:

Washington & Florida are virtually in.
Buffalo, Columbus & Toronto are out already tbh.

So with that in mind:

Detroit & Montreal go on decent runs and basically secure spots.

Islanders & Rangers fall back into the pack.

Flyers, Boston, Penguins & Tampa keep trucking along at a similar pace.

Ottawa and the Debs fall off. Schneider either gets injured or cannot keep bailing the Devils out like he has so far. Hoffman & Ryan cannot continue their unsustainable levels of production and without the puck luck they have had the Sens have to rely on Karlsson, Stone & Turris to pull them through but they cannot.

Carolina make a real push, but it is too much and they can't make the group to be back in race by end of year. They still have an outside shot with 5gms left, but like ~5 points behind.

Which leaves:

Rangers, Islanders, Flyers & Penguins fighting for 2nd seed in Met.
Rangers, Islanders, Flyers, Penguins, Tampa & Boston fighting for playoff spots.

And the last 5 games of the season will decide which of these 6 get the 4 spots.

I respectfully disagree.

It is way too early to say buffalo or Toronto is out of the playoffs hunt. They are only 10 points out of being a relatively high seed with roughly 40 games to play.

I think alot will depend on injuries. If any team not named Washington or new York rangers suffer an injury to a major contributor they can very quickly be out of the playoff hunt.

Tampa has underperformed in part of injuries. Same goes for Boston due to krejci missing time. Rangers suffered alot because Stepan missed time. The flyers thus far have been rather fortunate. The only major injury was to couturier which fortunately was not very long. I think how things play out will depend alot on injuries to key players.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

They certainly have a good shot but, we'll really have a better idea come February.

 

[Vlad*]

the fact that a team this subpar can make the playoffs really goes to show how bad the East is

 

[Curufinwe]

Worse teams will make the playoffs in the West.

 

[Appleyard]

These games in hand we have over all the teams in front of us are going to be every important.

A lot of '4pt' games coming up as well. Over the next 19 games some wins really are worth more than others!

If we are going to lose lose against the Western teams, Washington, Buffalo and Toronto!

10-7-2 with the 7 regulation losses being:

Toronto, Washington, Nashville, Washington, Anaheim, Buffalo and Toronto would be pretty realistic and pretty perfect (ofc a better record would be better... but that record would be best with those losses tbh instead of against teama around us in standings!)

If that happened the Flyers would likely be in ~6-7thth place going into the Western road trip!

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

the fact that a team this subpar can make the playoffs really goes to show how bad the East is

The East is certainly better than most of the West this year. The Flyers are better than about half of the West. The fact Phoenix is 2nd in the Pacific with 48 points screams volumes of how bad/mediocre the West is this year.

 

[Striiker]

A lot of '4pt' games coming up as well. Over the next 19 games some wins really are worth more than others!

If we are going to lose lose against the Western teams, Washington, Buffalo and Toronto!

10-7-2 with the 7 regulation losses being:

Toronto, Washington, Nashville, Washington, Anaheim, Buffalo and Toronto would be pretty realistic and pretty perfect (ofc a better record would be better... but that record would be best with those losses tbh instead of against teama around us in standings!)

If that happened the Flyers would likely be in ~6-7thth place going into the Western road trip!

Absolutely, and they're off to a good start by beating Boston and Montreal recently.

 

[explosive skating]

the fact that a team this subpar can make the playoffs really goes to show how bad the East is

This is not true. Actually, this is ********* u are saying. The race is tight that's all. Flyers can beat all these teams no problem. Only Wsh, Dal and Chi are beast teams.

 

[Appleyard]

I respectfully disagree.

It is way too early to say buffalo or Toronto is out of the playoffs hunt. They are only 10 points out of being a relatively high seed with roughly 40 games to play.

I think alot will depend on injuries. If any team not named Washington or new York rangers suffer an injury to a major contributor they can very quickly be out of the playoff hunt.

Tampa has underperformed in part of injuries. Same goes for Boston due to krejci missing time. Rangers suffered alot because Stepan missed time. The flyers thus far have been rather fortunate. The only major injury was to couturier which fortunately was not very long. I think how things play out will depend alot on injuries to key players.

Buffalo will likely have to go 25-10-4 (92 points) or better from here on out to make the playoffs. That is 0.692 point % down the stretch... 114 point pace.

Toronto will likely have to go 24-12-5 (92 points) or better from here on out to make the playoffs. That is 0.646 point % down the stretch... 106 point pace.

And that is while playing the majority of their games against teams well ahead of them in the standings... team so very rarely have such a different 2nd half of the season to 1st... let alone pick up ~15 more points over the 2nd half than the 1st.

Coming back from margins like that happens once every ~10 years. As while it may seem like they just have to have a nice stretch they also have to pass ALL the teams in-front of them... who were better than them over the 1st half for legit reasons.

Statistically such a margin is a killer... if either team has a bad 5 game stretch from here they are completely done tbh. And both teams are bad teams who have done a lot more losing than winning for a few years.

Injuries ofc will help decide. If Ottawa lost Karlsson... they are likely done. If Jersey lost Schneider... they are likely done. If we lose Giroux... we are likely done.

I was effectively stating that a few teams will fall off... and frankly when stats are delved into Jersey and Ottawa are the most likely... they are both lucky to have the record they have right now. And that Montreal & Detroit are probably better than their record... so have more of a chance of keeping up their play and current pace than the Isles or Rags, who frankly have both been playing like crap for some time.

 

[Appleyard]

Chicago beat Montreal.

Isles win in regulation.

Jersey and Detroit both 2 down in 3rd period. (lets hope they both hold out.)

Mwahahaha, results going our way tonight.

 

[Vlad*]

The East is certainly better than most of the West this year. The Flyers are better than about half of the West. The fact Phoenix is 2nd in the Pacific with 48 points screams volumes of how bad/mediocre the West is this year.

i HIGHLY disagree. the Coyotes also play in a much more difficult conference

nearly every single team in the Central crushes the Flyers in a playoff series

This is not true. Actually, this is ********* u are saying. The race is tight that's all. Flyers can beat all these teams no problem. Only Wsh, Dal and Chi are beast teams.

the race is tight because the teams in the East are not good. you guys must have forgot how hopeless they looked just 2 weeks ago.

even if they manage to squeak into the playoffs they will get utterly humiliated in round 1

 

[Appleyard]

Point % standings after tonight:

#1: Washington: .802% (132 point pace)
#2: Florida: .648% (106 point pace)
#3: Islanders: .602% (99 point pace)
#4: Detroit: .602% (99 point pace)
#5: Rangers: .593% (97 point pace)
#6: Boston: .560% (92 point pace)
#7: Tampa Bay: .558% (92 point pace)
#8: Montreal: .557% (91 point pace)
#9: Philly: .549% (90 point pace)
#10: Pittsburgh: .548% (90 point pace)
#11: Ottawa: .523% (86 point pace)
#12: Carolina: .522% (86 point pace)
#13: New Jersey: .522% (86 point pace)
#14: Toronto: .476% (78 point pace)
#15: Buffalo: .442% (72 point pace)
#16: Columbus: .400% (66 point pace)

Capitalise on the games in hand over the busy stretch and we should be in good shape.

 

[blinds]

I think the PP will need to get going for them to make the playoffs. I can't believe it's 29th.

Most surprising thing about this season tbh. You gotta think it picks up in the 2nd half.

 

[Hurricane28]

I expect Montreal to take off once they get Price back