Don't know if any of our 1st round picks can be "surprise" so to speak since we are clearly going to have a youth movement, all of them likely will have a decent chance to make the team (except maybe the ones from this year). That means HS, BH, BG, and NJ all will have a legit shot of making the team. HS probably has the biggest hill to climb since he's coming off a major injury and likely isn't @ 100% gameshape coming pre-season.
Regardless, if we are going with that formula of "surprise", i think Jansen would likely be the one. He's probably the best "finisher" we have and since we had trouble filling the net last year, he'll probably get a very close look.