Camp surprises

[Nona Di Giuseppe]

When they see his peewee level skating.

Fox is an okay prospect but he is raw as hell and gets way too talked up by Canucks fans.

This. I don't think people realize the advantage being an overager is in that league. There's a chart up somewhere of comparables and it basically breaks down to Fox being a super rare shot at the NHL and even if that happens, most likely to be a bottom 6 guy.

For this reason (and watching him a bit) and that he doesn't have the bits and pieces to contribute in the bottom 6, he's not going to make it.

This camp will be telling though. If he doesn't make some noticeable strides now and have some major development this summer, my expectations are tempered.

---


That Cassels though. Has looked better since being drafted. Lain is my camp stand-out, but I don't see him making the team.

 

[Ernie]

Dane Fox.

He's physically mature enough to play in the NHL and is obviously coming off of a strong season. He'll also be competing for ice time at the position where the Canucks are weakest.

Is there a chance he could outplay Vey for 3rd line C? Definitely possible.

 

[Zaddy91]

Shinkaruk will not have lost a step and improved even more.

Horvat and Gaunce will be making it impossible to send one if not both of them back.

Cassels will really make us look deep in a few mor years. I am excited. It was too much to expect of them last year and Gaunce still had 2 goals along with Shinkaruk, and Horvats 2 assits

 

[WetcoastOrca]

This. I don't think people realize the advantage being an overager is in that league. There's a chart up somewhere of comparables and it basically breaks down to Fox being a super rare shot at the NHL and even if that happens, most likely to be a bottom 6 guy.

For this reason (and watching him a bit) and that he doesn't have the bits and pieces to contribute in the bottom 6, he's not going to make it.

This camp will be telling though. If he doesn't make some noticeable strides now and have some major development this summer, my expectations are tempered.

---


That Cassels though. Has looked better since being drafted. Lain is my camp stand-out, but I don't see him making the team.

Not many overagers put up the numbers that Fox did and outscore the next closest guy in the league by as much as Fox did. And according to his coach he took all of the key defensive zone draws before Gaunce arrives.
I'm not sure what Fox will amount to, but I think you can throw out all of the charts of previous overagers. Fox is pretty unique as far as I'm aware.

 

[Ryp37]

This. I don't think people realize the advantage being an overager is in that league. .

I think everyone knows that because it gets brought up anytime he's talked about

Fox's case seems different though,off the top of my head I can't think of an overager who was poised to go around rounds 2-3 in his draft year but passed over due to off ice issues

 

[bossram]

I too think Gaunce is a lot closer to the NHL than is perceived. He has ability.

I just can't fathom the love for Cederholm though. It makes no sense. He has no upside, and is still years away. At best we're looking at Andrew Alberts. At best. I don't see the puck skill/passing/IQ necessary to play in the NHL.

 

[TheWanderer]

I was gonna say Cassels... but mono - D'OH!

 

[biturbo19]

Not many overagers put up the numbers that Fox did and outscore the next closest guy in the league by as much as Fox did. And according to his coach he took all of the key defensive zone draws before Gaunce arrives.
I'm not sure what Fox will amount to, but I think you can throw out all of the charts of previous overagers. Fox is pretty unique as far as I'm aware.

Yeah. Fox has had a pretty bizarre career trajectory in the OHL. It's hard to fit what he did into any of the traditional "boxes" you see there.

It's a really tough read on what he might become.

 

[canuck4life16]

Horvat/Gaunce/Shinkaruk/Jensen/Fox/Corrado two or three will made the team.....while rest is in junior or ahl

 

[Burke's Evil Spirit]

Dane Fox.

He's physically mature enough to play in the NHL and is obviously coming off of a strong season. He'll also be competing for ice time at the position where the Canucks are weakest.

Is there a chance he could outplay Vey for 3rd line C? Definitely possible.

Heh, there are no odds I wouldn't give you on this.

 

[Wilch]

Dane Fox and Jordan Subban.

 

[GPNuck]

Gaunce is making the team's third line. Bank on it.

I hope Gaunce turns into a real stud I really do, more then almost any other player on the team.. When he was invited to the WJC tryouts last year I remember some comments about him from Sutter saying basically that he was not impressed by Gaunce. I'm just a fan and those comments pissed me off I imagine it really lit a fire inside Gauncer and he's going to be a force to be reckoned with. This is what I hope

 

[Alexistheman]

Yeah. Fox has had a pretty bizarre career trajectory in the OHL. It's hard to fit what he did into any of the traditional "boxes" you see there.

It's a really tough read on what he might become.

Not really. Improved PPG every season, his progression has been steady. If he doesnt get injured in 2012 he likely gets drafted in the 2nd-4th round.

This isnt to say he will make the NHL for sure but its not like he went from garbage in the OHL one season to being the best goal scorer in his overage year.

 

[Canucks LB]

Dane fox is going to emerge, this guy is going to make people talk from his shot alone

 

[biturbo19]

Not really. Improved PPG every season, his progression has been steady. If he doesnt get injured in 2012 he likely gets drafted in the 2nd-4th round.

This isnt to say he will make the NHL for sure but its not like he went from garbage in the OHL one season to being the best goal scorer in his overage year.

He's had "other" aspects that have clearly contributed to his career trajectory though and are still influencing perceptions of his OHL career. Like you said in effect, it's not as though he just immediately started producing as an overager.

 

[John Bender*]

Dane fox is going to emerge, this guy is going to make people talk from his shot alone

I predict dane fox's career in the nhl will mirror Sergei shirokov's

 

[David Bruce Banner]

Gaunce gets my bet too.

For the long long long shot, I'll say Mallett.

 

[me2]

No surprises barring injuries.

 

[biturbo19]

Honestly my biggest bet to surprise fans here in camp isn't the rookies...it's Luca Sbisa. I think a lot of people have a far more negative impression of him than is warranted.

Followed by Linden Vey, who if he had been in our organization prior to this summer...fans would've been begging for him to be given a shot for years.

 

[MS]

I see Fox skate ... and I think he's horribly over-rated and will be lucky to ever be effective in the AHL. Then I see him shoot the puck .... and think he's a special talent who could score 40 goals in the NHL someday.

Such a weird player with such a weird trajectory and back story to this point. I really have no idea what to expect. I wouldn't be surprised if he's considered an untouchable top-3 prospect in the organization by the end of the season after destroying the AHL, and wouldn't be shocked if he's in the ECHL, either.

_________

Agreed with the earlier post saying that Kenins and Zalewski could both surprise and contend for a bottom-6 spot out of camp.

 

[biturbo19]

I see Fox skate ... and I think he's horribly over-rated and will be lucky to ever be effective in the AHL. Then I see him shoot the puck .... and think he's a special talent who could score 40 goals in the NHL someday.

Such a weird player with such a weird trajectory and back story to this point. I really have no idea what to expect. I wouldn't be surprised if he's considered an untouchable top-3 prospect in the organization by the end of the season after destroying the AHL, and wouldn't be shocked if he's in the ECHL, either.

Yeah. Completely agree. I honestly don't know what to make of Dane Fox right now. Though given his age and experience...it's one of those situations where we ought to find out what he's all about sooner, rather than later.

 

[MS]

Yeah. Completely agree. I honestly don't know what to make of Dane Fox right now. Though given his age and experience...it's one of those situations where we ought to find out what he's all about sooner, rather than later.

Yup.

First year pro is the most important in a player's development and the great separator of the guys who'll make it from the pretenders. And we have an absolute pile of guys playing their first pro year this year. Some will sink and some will swim.

 

[Alflives*]

McCann will impress, especially with his offence. He will go back to junior though, and afterword there will be much debate about the decision.

 

[Nona Di Giuseppe]

Not many overagers put up the numbers that Fox did and outscore the next closest guy in the league by as much as Fox did. And according to his coach he took all of the key defensive zone draws before Gaunce arrives.
I'm not sure what Fox will amount to, but I think you can throw out all of the charts of previous overagers. Fox is pretty unique as far as I'm aware.

I will give you he's got a much better shot than typical overagers, but when this is the list we're talking about here, being better is just a making the NHL.

Here's a list of the other overagers of the year from the o:

2013-14 Dane Fox, Erie Otters
2012–13 Charles Sarault, Sarnia Sting
2011–12 Andrew Agozzino, Niagara IceDogs
2010–11 Jason Akeson, Kitchener Rangers
2009–10 Bryan Cameron, Barrie Colts
2008–09 Justin DiBenedetto, Sarnia Sting
2007–08 Michael Swift, Niagara IceDogs
2006–07 Tyler Donati, Belleville Bulls
2005–06 Ryan Callahan, Guelph Storm
2004–05 André Benoit, Kitchener Rangers
2003–04 Martin St. Pierre, Guelph Storm
2002–03 Chad LaRose, Plymouth Whalers
2001–02 Cory Pecker, Erie Otters
2000–01 Randy Rowe, Belleville Bulls
1999–2000 Dan Tessier, Ottawa 67's
1998–99 Ryan Ready, Belleville Bulls
1997–98 Bujar Amidovski, Toronto St. Michael's Majors
1996–97 Zac Bierk, Peterborough Petes
1995–96 Aaron Brand, Sarnia Sting
1994–95 Bill Bowler, Windsor Spitfires
1993–94 B. J. MacPherson, North Bay Centennials
1992–93 Scott Hollis, Oshawa Generals
1991–92 John Spoltore, North Bay Centennials
1990–91 Joey St. Aubin, Kitchener Rangers
1989–90 Iain Fraser, Oshawa Generals
1988–89 Stan Drulia, Niagara Falls Thunder
1987–88 Len Soccio, North Bay Centennials
1986–87 Mike Richard, Toronto Marlboros
1985–86 Steve Guenette, Guelph Platers
1984–85 Dunc MacIntyre, Belleville Bulls
1983–84 Don McLaren, Ottawa 67's

It's not that I don't hope he turns out to be a gem, I'm just trying to manage expectations. I think we'll know pretty quickly how his game translates though.

-----

That said, my list for camp highlights:

Dud: Fox
Stud: Cassels
Surprise: Lain or Subban

 

[WetcoastOrca]

I will give you he's got a much better shot than typical overagers, but when this is the list we're talking about here, being better is just a making the NHL.

Here's a list of the other overagers of the year from the o:

2013-14 Dane Fox, Erie Otters
2012–13 Charles Sarault, Sarnia Sting
2011–12 Andrew Agozzino, Niagara IceDogs
2010–11 Jason Akeson, Kitchener Rangers
2009–10 Bryan Cameron, Barrie Colts
2008–09 Justin DiBenedetto, Sarnia Sting
2007–08 Michael Swift, Niagara IceDogs
2006–07 Tyler Donati, Belleville Bulls
2005–06 Ryan Callahan, Guelph Storm
2004–05 André Benoit, Kitchener Rangers
2003–04 Martin St. Pierre, Guelph Storm
2002–03 Chad LaRose, Plymouth Whalers
2001–02 Cory Pecker, Erie Otters
2000–01 Randy Rowe, Belleville Bulls
1999–2000 Dan Tessier, Ottawa 67's
1998–99 Ryan Ready, Belleville Bulls
1997–98 Bujar Amidovski, Toronto St. Michael's Majors
1996–97 Zac Bierk, Peterborough Petes
1995–96 Aaron Brand, Sarnia Sting
1994–95 Bill Bowler, Windsor Spitfires
1993–94 B. J. MacPherson, North Bay Centennials
1992–93 Scott Hollis, Oshawa Generals
1991–92 John Spoltore, North Bay Centennials
1990–91 Joey St. Aubin, Kitchener Rangers
1989–90 Iain Fraser, Oshawa Generals
1988–89 Stan Drulia, Niagara Falls Thunder
1987–88 Len Soccio, North Bay Centennials
1986–87 Mike Richard, Toronto Marlboros
1985–86 Steve Guenette, Guelph Platers
1984–85 Dunc MacIntyre, Belleville Bulls
1983–84 Don McLaren, Ottawa 67's

It's not that I don't hope he turns out to be a gem, I'm just trying to manage expectations. I think we'll know pretty quickly how his game translates though.

-----

That said, my list for camp highlights:

Dud: Fox
Stud: Cassels
Surprise: Lain or Subban

As I said, you can throw out the list. Fox would have been drated in an earlier year in the third round at worst. What you need is a list of overage players who were passed over in the draft for personal reasons and who then went on not only to lead the league in scoring but lead the next closest guy by a huge amount. Fox had 64 goals in 67 games in the OHL. The next closest guy had 49 goals. That's a 15 goal gap or 30% more goals than the second place guy.

Now, I suspect if you put together that list there's going to be one player on it. Fox. So throw out the list. This guy could either boom or bust or be a fourth liner. Who knows.