Camp surprises

[WetcoastOrca]

I see Fox skate ... and I think he's horribly over-rated and will be lucky to ever be effective in the AHL. Then I see him shoot the puck .... and think he's a special talent who could score 40 goals in the NHL someday.

Such a weird player with such a weird trajectory and back story to this point. I really have no idea what to expect. I wouldn't be surprised if he's considered an untouchable top-3 prospect in the organization by the end of the season after destroying the AHL, and wouldn't be shocked if he's in the ECHL, either.

_________

Agreed with the earlier post saying that Kenins and Zalewski could both surprise and contend for a bottom-6 spot out of camp.

I hate to say it and I'm in no way saying he ever gets there, but you just described Lucky Luc Robitaille. Hopefully now that Fox is drafted he will get more help with his skating so that he can improve in that area.

I agree with you though that he could end up being just about anything. He's probably the guy I'm most interested in seeing in camp. I'm also ging to be watching to see how he does in the AHL this year playing against players his own age.

 

[VanJack]

Happy some posters brought up Subban....maybe the most offensively gifted dman in the system.....could be a big surprise and stick around a lot longer this time around....but isn't he still unsigned?

 

[Steveorama]

I hate to say it and I'm in no way saying he ever gets there, but you just described Lucky Luc Robitaille

Well, let's hope his first pro season mirrors Luc's!
Of course, LA's top 3 centres that season were Dionne, Carson and Nicholls, all of whom could dish the puck.

 

[ziploc]

Well, let's hope his first pro season mirrors Luc's!
Of course, LA's top 3 centres that season were Dionne, Carson and Nicholls, all of whom could dish the puck.

Matched on our team by Henrik, Bonino and Vey. Legends all.

 

[ChilliBilly]

Going with Kenins. Impressed against Canada at the Olympics, and at 6' 201 lbs has the size to step in. Also, he was born in 91, so at 23 not a bad age to step into the NHL. But we'll see.

 

[Shareefruck]

Going with Kenins. Impressed against Canada at the Olympics, and at 6' 201 lbs has the size to step in. Also, he was born in 91, so at 23 not a bad age to step into the NHL. But we'll see.

Good pick

 

[Ho Borvat]

Gaunce is making the team's third line. Bank on it.

Im less optimistic with Gaunce than most, but I think if he ever becomes a quality 3C during his prime it will be considered a win.

 

[RandV]

I will give you he's got a much better shot than typical overagers, but when this is the list we're talking about here, being better is just a making the NHL.

Here's a list of the other overagers of the year from the o:

2013-14 Dane Fox, Erie Otters
2012–13 Charles Sarault, Sarnia Sting
2011–12 Andrew Agozzino, Niagara IceDogs
2010–11 Jason Akeson, Kitchener Rangers
2009–10 Bryan Cameron, Barrie Colts
2008–09 Justin DiBenedetto, Sarnia Sting
2007–08 Michael Swift, Niagara IceDogs
2006–07 Tyler Donati, Belleville Bulls
2005–06 Ryan Callahan, Guelph Storm
2004–05 André Benoit, Kitchener Rangers
2003–04 Martin St. Pierre, Guelph Storm
2002–03 Chad LaRose, Plymouth Whalers
2001–02 Cory Pecker, Erie Otters
2000–01 Randy Rowe, Belleville Bulls
1999–2000 Dan Tessier, Ottawa 67's
1998–99 Ryan Ready, Belleville Bulls
1997–98 Bujar Amidovski, Toronto St. Michael's Majors
1996–97 Zac Bierk, Peterborough Petes
1995–96 Aaron Brand, Sarnia Sting
1994–95 Bill Bowler, Windsor Spitfires
1993–94 B. J. MacPherson, North Bay Centennials
1992–93 Scott Hollis, Oshawa Generals
1991–92 John Spoltore, North Bay Centennials
1990–91 Joey St. Aubin, Kitchener Rangers
1989–90 Iain Fraser, Oshawa Generals
1988–89 Stan Drulia, Niagara Falls Thunder
1987–88 Len Soccio, North Bay Centennials
1986–87 Mike Richard, Toronto Marlboros
1985–86 Steve Guenette, Guelph Platers
1984–85 Dunc MacIntyre, Belleville Bulls
1983–84 Don McLaren, Ottawa 67's

It's not that I don't hope he turns out to be a gem, I'm just trying to manage expectations. I think we'll know pretty quickly how his game translates though.

-----

That said, my list for camp highlights:

Dud: Fox
Stud: Cassels
Surprise: Lain or Subban

I'm randomly checking out some of the players in that list. Some guys seemed to be doing okay but had a sudden decline in the AHL (Ryan Ready - 55 points to 25 points on the Moose in one season), some guys were too undersized for the NHL (Michael Swift - 5'9" 165lbs), and I'm sure there's a variety of other reasons.

On one hand by the time you get to overage status you have the left over players, as anyone drafted will typically be on their pro teams farm club. On the other hand you should consider the average bust rate of any general prospect. Starting from 2000, you have Chad Larose, Ryan Callahan, and Andre Benoit as NHL'ers of various levels. Take half a draft class out of any round outside the 1st & 2nd and that's a pretty normal rate, especially considering most of those listed players seem to be 3rd/4th rounders or undrafted.

Going case by case Fox's career so far looks similar to Chad Larose's.

 

[Ernie]

It should be remembered that Dane Fox is a special case - he would likely have been drafted, but his personal problems got in the way and his 2nd season of draft eligibility was hampered by injury. If he had have been drafted, he likely would have been in the AHL last season.

The other prospects in that list had their own reasons for not being drafted, but at least Dane's are related to off-ice issues, not major flaws in his game. He should be viewed as the equivalent of a prospect who was a late round pick but saw a major jump in his game.

 

[Sharpshooter]

Gaunce is making the team's third line. Bank on it.

I wouldn't bank on him making the 3rd line at all.

My prediction is that no prospect from camp makes the team full time next season, barring injuries.

It's not that they aren't talented enough, it's that I don't see any of them supplanting a veteran or someone already tentatively penciled in...there isn't a prospect that could supplant Vey, for instance, as one 'penciled in', or Sbisa, another 'penciled in' player.

 

[Hardyvan123]

Gaunce being able to force his way out of an AHL spot onto this team out of camp would be very shocking. if he is there then that is really cool but these waiver exempt AHL players are such easy options to send down.[/B]They can be called up whenever and injuries will happen throughout the season. He'd have to put together a pretty ridiculous camp.

If this team is indeed missing the playoffs then he can take a spot full time when players start getting traded. Matthias and Richardson are both UFAs. Others may move on as well.

For economic reasons this makes sense but the Canucks need to have their best players pushing for jobs and Guance is one guy who might be ready for 3rd line duty.

This team needs a breath of fresh air and some infusion of youth and create a culture of hard work and team identity, like really quickly.

 

[Alflives*]

For economic reasons this makes sense but the Canucks need to have their best players pushing for jobs and Guance is one guy who might be ready for 3rd line duty.

This team needs a breath of fresh air and some infusion of youth and create a culture of hard work and team identity, like really quickly.

If young guys, like Guance, make the team, who (of the vets) goes? And no picking Sestito or Dorset. I don't think we have young guys, who can fill those roles.

 

[Drop the Sopel]

My prediction is that no prospect from camp makes the team full time next season, barring injuries.

This is how I see it. Don't think any prospects are NHL ready. After we see Vey in pre-season, I think it will highlight just how poor our pro ready prosepcts are. Expecting him to stand out way above the pack of guys like Horvat, Jensen, Shinkaruk etc...

2015-'16 is going to be very interesting though. Wouldn't be surprised if we see a MAJOR infusion of youth up front. Pure goalscorers typically break into the NHL at a young age and the Canucks will have a pair of players in Virtanen and Jensen that will have NHL size and a good shot at a roster spot. Shinkaruk as well will have a season of pro under his belt - Horvat too would be an obvious candidate to crack the roster. Never mind the B level guys headlined by Gaunce, Fox etc - or the older prospects like Zalewski and Kenins.

Wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility to see 3 rookie forwards on the team in '15-16 IMO. Don't think we see any next season, besides Vey.

 

[701]

McCann will impress, especially with his offence. He will go back to junior though, and afterword there will be much debate about the decision.

I agree that McCann will impress, but I doubt that anyone, including McCann himself, thinks he isn't going back to junior.
McCann pretty well said so, mentioning his need to bulk up, and especially to improve his consistency. By dev camp he was up to 190, he said. He got that list of stuff to work on from his GM (the new Leafs hire, so ex-GM) and it seems clear he'll be back in junior, improving his weaker points. However, he did say that after this coming season, all bets are off, meaning he thinks he'll be NHL-ready for 2015-16. Who can say, but I'm a big fan of his and I think his potential was undervalued by most of the league's GMs.

When I recall what a player Kesler became, after arriving as a fast-skating defensive centre with an attitude and "stone hands," I wonder about McCann's potential because he already has the shot and the good hands, as well as the skating, the defensive zeal, and maybe (a sunnier version of) the attitude.

 

[Shareefruck]

To be honest, I don't really understand the whole "he can play in the AHL, so it's unlikely he'll make the team" stuff. If anything, isn't that advantage?

If he can be sent down any time, there's no risk having him make the team. If he looks like he might be ready, you might as well try it, and if it doesn't work out or he might need more seasoning, you could easily send him down.

With Horvat, you better be ****ing sure he's MORE than ready, otherwise, he's stuck in nowhere land.

Can somebody explain to me what's wrong about this?

If Horvat and Gaunce both equally impress the same amount in the preseason, it seems more logical to me to give the spot to Gaunce.

 

[NoShowWilly]

To be honest, I don't really understand the whole "he can play in the AHL, so it's unlikely he'll make the team" stuff. If anything, isn't that advantage?

If he can be sent down any time, there's no risk having him make the team. If he looks like he might be ready, you might as well try it, and if it doesn't work out or he might need more seasoning, you could easily send him down.

With Horvat, you better be ****ing sure he's MORE than ready, otherwise, he's stuck in nowhere land.

Can somebody explain to me what's wrong about this?

If Horvat and Gaunce both equally impress the same amount in the preseason, it seems more logical to me to give the spot to Gaunce.

My argument was about depth but someone else can be the depth in the pressbox if they are being outperformed by a youngster. We have one, if not 2 spots. I like sestito but he can be waived.

You are right we can ship them down if they aren't ready.

I don't agree about the second part. Horvat can get his 10 games. If they are equal.

 

[F A N]

To be honest, I don't really understand the whole "he can play in the AHL, so it's unlikely he'll make the team" stuff. If anything, isn't that advantage?

If he can be sent down any time, there's no risk having him make the team. If he looks like he might be ready, you might as well try it, and if it doesn't work out or he might need more seasoning, you could easily send him down.

With Horvat, you better be ****ing sure he's MORE than ready, otherwise, he's stuck in nowhere land.

Can somebody explain to me what's wrong about this?

If Horvat and Gaunce both equally impress the same amount in the preseason, it seems more logical to me to give the spot to Gaunce.

It is a matter of depth and seeing what Horvat can do. Horvat can be sent back to juniors but once sent back he cannot be recalled until after his CHL season ends. With this being Gaunce's first professional season, he can always work on his game in the AHL.

 

[Shareefruck]

I shouldn't have even brought up Gaunce/Horvat-- that's not really the crux of my comment.

It just seems like the consensus around here is that if you're eligible to play in the AHL, you have much less of a chance to make the team since you can be called up later and if you're not eligible, there's more incentive for him to make the team.

But just on a logical level, that all sounds completely backwards to me. If you can be sent down/called up with impunity you're a more flexible choice to make the team because they don't need to be certain-- As long as it looks like that player can play at that level short term, there's no downside to keeping him up as long as you can even if you don't expect it to keep up.

On the other hand, if a guy who isn't AHL eligible for another year or two is competing for a spot, I'd be much more hesitant to give him a spot because even if he looks ready, his play can easily drop off and but stuck in the press-box or hurting the team/his own development. It seems like the default move would be to keep that player in juniors unless they give a miracle performance.

Again, I just don't understand the consensus in this case.

 

[Rotting Corpse*]

I have never seen Dane Fox, but the comments people make about him remind me so much of Jesse Schultz...6'0, 185, poor skating but tears up juniors as an overager on a 50-win team, doesn't get drafted, signs with the Canucks...

 

[LiquidSnake]

To be honest, I don't really understand the whole "he can play in the AHL, so it's unlikely he'll make the team" stuff. If anything, isn't that advantage?

If he can be sent down any time, there's no risk having him make the team. If he looks like he might be ready, you might as well try it, and if it doesn't work out or he might need more seasoning, you could easily send him down.

With Horvat, you better be ****ing sure he's MORE than ready, otherwise, he's stuck in nowhere land.

Can somebody explain to me what's wrong about this?

If Horvat and Gaunce both equally impress the same amount in the preseason, it seems more logical to me to give the spot to Gaunce.

What's the worse case scenario with Horvat if they play him? He doesn't play great and they dont win the Cup?

I think we're used to that by now.

 

[Canuckz]

Been saying it for months... Dane Fox.

All you overager naysayers leave out too many preceding facts. His skating can be remedied. Anyone remember how improved Booths skating was after he worked on it with a trainer?

2013-2014 - !07 points. 64goals, 43 assists, in 67 games. Playoffs: 19 points in 14 games

History

2009-10: Drafted by London in the third round (51st overall) of the 2009 OHL Priority Draft, Dane Fox appeared in 26 games with the Knights and skated in 23 games with the Strathroy Rockets in the GOJHL. He scored 1 goal with 6 assists and was an even plus/minus with 13 penalty minutes for the Knights during the regular season. Fox skated in two of twelve playoff games and had an even plus/minus with 1 assist. In 23 games for Strathroy he scored 11 goals with 10 assists and had 103 penalty minutes.

2010-11: Fox' ice time steadily increased in his first full season with London. In 51 games he scored 11 goals with 12 assists and was minus-two with 55 penalty minutes. The Knights reached the OHL playoffs despite finishing last in the Midwest Division. Fox played in all six playoff games in the first round series against Memorial Cup-bound Owen Sound and was minus-four with 1 goal and 6 penalty minutes.

2011-12: Fox was among the top scorers for league-leading London before being traded to last-place Erie in January in a trade-deadline deal. Fox scored 11 goals with 12 assists in 34 games with the Knights prior to the trade. He was one of the key offensive players for the Otters after the trade. In 62 games between the two teams Fox scored 23 goals with 31 assists and was minus-12 with 87 penalty minutes. Erie won just ten games and failed to make the OHL playoffs. Fox was invited to the NHL Draft Combine and ranked 46th amongst North American skaters in Central Scouting's final rankings prior to the 2012 NHL Draft.

2012-13: Fox attended the New York Rangers prospect camp and then suffered a freak foot injury in August which kept him out of the Erie Otters lineup until December. He scored at just under a point-per-game pace after returning, finishing the year with 19 goals and 17 assists in 37 games. Fox was -1 with 78 penalty minutes on an Erie team that had the OHL's second worst record.


Talent Analysis

Fox was snubbed twice in the NHL Draft but has now been signed by an NHL club. Fox has solid offensive skills but needs to work on his defensive game.

He has good, but not great, speed and needs to improve on his first step and acceleration

 

[DCantheDDad]

I see Cassels and Gaunce as guys who are going to have a great camp.

 

[CP]

Gaunce and Kenins will surprise in the preseason but still be in the AHL to provide depth if there are no injuries to players with one way contracts.
Horvat and Vey will make the team, but I don't consider that a surprise.

 

[Jay Cee]

Kinda hard to predict who will surprise isn't it? With some of the names bandied about I would not be one bit surprised if they surprised :p

 

[ChilliBilly]

Kinda hard to predict who will surprise isn't it? With some of the names bandied about I would not be one bit surprised if they surprised :p

Yes its always a surprise who surprises. It wouldn't be a surprise otherwise?