Player Discussion Calen Addison

[Dr Jan Itor]

Came up in the GDT, so I figured I'd look into it a bit.

In the 2 seasons that Dumba played prior to signing his bridge deal, he was 5th in 5v5 ice time per game and 2nd in PP ice time per game for defensemen, and had 26 points in 81 games in the 2nd season. He got 2 x $2.55M which was 3.49% of the cap back then. So it was a pretty similar role to what Addison is doing now (6th in 5v5 ice time per game and 1st in PP ice time for defensemen).

3.49% of the expected cap of $86.5M next season would be $3M, but Addison is also looking like he'll exceed Dumba's production.

A recent one would be Noah Dobson for the Islanders. Last season, he played a 2nd pair + top PP role and had a 13 goal, 51 point season. He got a 3 x $4M per year deal.

My thought is that "fair" bridge deal would be somewhere in the $2.5-$3 million range on a 2 year deal, depending on how Addison does the rest of the season of course.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

I’m still not sold on him. If I were a GM I’d move him after he puts up lofty numbers this year. Undersized and doesn’t defend super well. Tons of PP points but isn’t a play driver at even strength. Reminds me a lot of Ty Smith in his rookie season. He’s in the AHL these days.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I’m still not sold on him. If I were a GM I’d move him after he puts up lofty numbers this year. Undersized and doesn’t defend super well. Tons of PP points but isn’t a play driver at even strength. Reminds me a lot of Ty Smith in his rookie season. He’s in the AHL these days.

I mean, if we could get a mid 1st round pick for him, then sure, but are we really talking about a 22 year old rookie defenseman with 41 NHL games not "driving play"? Seems like an unfair expectation.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

I mean, if we could get a mid 1st round pick for him, then sure, but are we really talking about a 22 year old rookie defenseman with 41 NHL games not "driving play"? Seems like an unfair expectation.

I’m not asking him to drive play at an elite level, but he isn’t creating much of anything. Probably should have worded it differently. PP dependent d-man at this point. Maybe he develops as the year goes on, but if not I would look to shop him. Don’t trade for nothing obviously, but if he can be a part of a package for a higher pick I’d be fine with it.

 

[57special]

Our PP is finally humming, and i don't think it's a coincidence that Addison is running it. He makes smart, FAST, decisions, and is very mobile. His defending isn't great, but far better than i thought it might be, and his ability to move the puck is welcome.

He is still only 22, and not even halfway through his 1st year. He is on pace to have a better year than Dumba did at the same age, and frankly, he makes a lot less mistakes.

His main weakness is not being much of a crease clearer, but IMO he will learn to get better, and he can always be paired with a bigger meathead who can do that. He will get stronger as he matures. He hasn't shown it yet, and i'm guessing that he has been told not to, but he is a decent fighter, albeit a flyweight. I'd say he's every bit as good as Shaw in that regard. He's a MB boy, a Metis.
They usually don't have a pampered, suburban, hockey school upbringing...it gets pretty rugged. He has a lot in common with Dewar.

I can't believe that we are talking about moving him when he has done wonders for the PP(always has been good, as he ran the WJC PP with Lafreniere), is decent generally(it's been guys like Merrill screwing up far more, IMO), and is young as hell with plenty of career ahead. He is at least a year ahead of any of the young Dmen in the system, more likely 2-3. Simon Johansson is not ready, and may never be ready, for the NHL. Faber might be one of the rare Dmen who jump right into the NHL from college, but i sure wouldn't bet on it. In any event, if Dumba goes(as we all think he will)then we will need Faber and Addison, who have differing skillsets.

I mean, if we are trading Addison for a top 10 pick then you have to think about it, but otherwise...pfft...a mid to late 1st that MIGHT be ready in 3-5 years, if ever? For the guy who is part of the best PP we've had in years, and seem to make our star player very happy? I don't get it.

 

[AKL]

The risk/reward calculation for moving a 22 year old rookie defender who may or may not score 40-50 points would be mind numbing.

I mean if you can get a 22 year old rookie 60-70 point center then sure. If you're trading him for some random prospect a team wants to part with? What's the point? You've waited this long to take a chance on your guy, follow through to the end.

 

[Wabit]

I’m not asking him to drive play at an elite level, but he isn’t creating much of anything. Probably should have worded it differently. PP dependent d-man at this point. Maybe he develops as the year goes on, but if not I would look to shop him. Don’t trade for nothing obviously, but if he can be a part of a package for a higher pick I’d be fine with it.

I'd be okay with him not driving 5v5 play much if he was even somewhat decent in the d-zone; which he's not. The d-corps isn't good enough to have a completely sheltered 6D that plays 12 mins a game 5v5.

 

[57special]

The risk/reward calculation for moving a 22 year old rookie defender who may or may not score 40-50 points would be mind numbing.

I mean if you can get a 22 year old rookie 60-70 point center then sure. If you're trading him for some random prospect a team wants to part with? What's the point? You've waited this long to take a chance on your guy, follow through to the end.

Exactly. I mean, anythings possible, but in general, all you had to do was look at Suter on our opponents PP today to appreciate what Addison has done for us. He is already better than Brodin, Dumba, and Spurgeon there, and none of our top D prospects (Hunt, ROR, Faber, SJO) are even playing on the PP.

Would i trade him for Byfield? Yah, probably, you have to take that gamble even though Byfield has been underwhelming and overinjured so far. Lafreniere? Maybe, I guess? Turcotte? NFW.

 

[Prior]

Addison is fine if he’s a third pair, PP specialist on a defensive corps. I have a hard time looking at his play and projecting him forward as anything more than that if you want a corps that is able to compete for anything in the playoffs.

With limited cap space and contracts on defense like Spurgeon who will be declining over Addison’s next deal and Brodin who is anything but well rounded at his number, I’d be very careful committing more significant cap numbers on a defensive corps that doesn’t include top pair defensemen. Their defensemen all have clear holes throughout each of their games save for maybe Spurgeon to a lesser degree but cannot see him aging gracefully.

Anything more than $2.5 per on a short bridge for Addison is a stretch. He’s ran the PP admirably, distributing well but zero threat to shoot, but his point totals are a direct result of the best player this franchise has ever had and will ever have any time soon being on that same PP.

 

[AKL]

Exactly. I mean, anythings possible, but in general, all you had to do was look at Suter on our opponents PP today to appreciate what Addison has done for us. He is already better than Brodin, Dumba, and Spurgeon there, and none of our top D prospects (Hunt, ROR, Faber, SJO) are even playing on the PP.

Would i trade him for Byfield? Yah, probably, you have to take that gamble even though Byfield has been underwhelming and overinjured so far. Lafreniere? Maybe, I guess? Turcotte? NFW.

I guess Lambos could be playing on PP2, but as far as I know, Ben Zloty is still QBing that PP too. So even Lambos, who is my best bet for best all around of the LD's, is not a surefire PP player the way Addison is.

Addison is fine if he’s a third pair, PP specialist on a defensive corps. I have a hard time looking at his play and projecting him forward as anything more than that if you want a corps that is able to compete for anything in the playoffs.

With limited cap space and contracts on defense like Spurgeon who will be declining over Addison’s next deal and Brodin who is anything but well rounded at his number, I’d be very careful committing more significant cap numbers on a defensive corps that doesn’t include top pair defensemen. Their defensemen all have clear holes throughout each of their games save for maybe Spurgeon to a lesser degree but cannot see him aging gracefully.

Anything more than $2.5 per on a short bridge for Addison is a stretch. He’s ran the PP admirably, distributing well but zero threat to shoot, but his point totals are a direct result of the best player this franchise has ever had and will ever have any time soon being on that same PP.

I have more faith in Addison's ability to improve his overall game a la every other defenseman we've developed than I do in this organization being able to find a guy who could do what Addison can do at 22, for 2.5M or less.

 

[57special]

I'd be okay with him not driving 5v5 play much if he was even somewhat decent in the d-zone; which he's not. The d-corps isn't good enough to have a completely sheltered 6D that plays 12 mins a game 5v5.

He's ok. His ability to handle the puck, and his skating, are abilities you can't ignore when it comes to defending. if he can get back to the puck faster than his peers(Merrill, Middleton) then he is already an improvement. If he then is able to handle the puck competently (again compared to those two)and move the puck up the ice before we get hemmed in the D zone then that's the best kind of Defense . Is he the next Brodin? Of course not. Is he Hunt? No, he's better defensively.

If you think that Merrill is a better Dman then you are looking at a different game than I am. Once you throw in Addison's offensive skills, and relative youth, it's not even close. Addison has only played 41 games in his NHL career- he will get better. Merrill has played 500, and is 8 years older. He is what he is, and will be declining sooner rather than later(he is about to turn 31, an age that isn't kind to borderline NHL'ers)

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Yeah, at least getting through a bridge deal with him is a no-brainer for me. After that, it depends on what we see over those 2 years.

 

[Wabit]

He's ok. His ability to handle the puck, and his skating, are abilities you can't ignore when it comes to defending. if he can get back to the puck faster than his peers(Merrill, Middleton) then he is already an improvement. If he then is able to handle the puck competently (again compared to those two)and move the puck up the ice before we get hemmed in the D zone then that's the best kind of Defense . Is he the next Brodin? Of course not. Is he Hunt? No, he's better defensively.

If you think that Merrill is a better Dman then you are looking at a different game than I am. Once you throw in Addison's offensive skills, and relative youth, it's not even close. Addison has only played 41 games in his NHL career- he will get better. Merrill has played 500, and is 8 years older. He is what he is, and will be declining sooner rather than later(he is about to turn 31, an age that isn't kind to borderline NHL'ers)

I'll take Merrill every time in the d-zone. Heck I'll take Goli, Kulikov, Prosser, or even Benn in the d-zone (and most of them in the o-zone too).

Put Addison with Kaprizov on the ice together 5v5 with an o-zone FO (the way an o-zone 6D should be used) and the results have been terrible.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I'll take Merrill every time in the d-zone. Heck I'll take Goli, Kulikov, Prosser, or even Benn in the d-zone (and most of them in the o-zone too).

Put Addison with Kaprizov on the ice together 5v5 with an o-zone FO (the way an o-zone 6D should be used) and the results have been terrible.

Interesting. Kaprizov is actually the forward that he's played the most with 5v5 and the results don't seem to be too terrible:

53.42 CF
51.18 xGF
49.04 SCF
57.89 HDCF

Addison's numbers also much better without Merrill than with him, almost across the board.

 

[57special]

I'll take Merrill every time in the d-zone. Heck I'll take Goli, Kulikov, Prosser, or even Benn in the d-zone (and most of them in the o-zone too).

Put Addison with Kaprizov on the ice together 5v5 with an o-zone FO (the way an o-zone 6D should be used) and the results have been terrible.

Again, i think you are ignoring puck retrieval, and how important it is to playing in your won zone. Brodin is a master at it, Spurgeon is VG, Addison is above average. Getting back to the puck, quickly, then moving it either by passing (puck skill, vision), or skating it(puck skill, skating)out, eliminates to the need to get hemmed in your zone. Prosser was awful at it, as was Benn, because they were very slow, had little to no stick skills, no vision, and no ability to carry the puck. A rested Goligoski was/is vg, but he showed worrying signs of aging(slowing down) last year. Kulikov was decent last year...certainly better than Merrill and Benn, but everyone freaked out when he made some bad mistakes in the playoffs.

Benn's supposed skillset was being tough, but I saw him lose puck battle after puck battle, never fight, and basically be a pylon in the D zone, nvm the neutral zone and the rest of the ice surface.

None of those players can skate with Addison ( a younger Goligoski, sure), or have his ability to move the puck(excepting Goli). Merrill, Benn, and Prosser are a day late, and a dollar short, to any puck. Are they better than Addison at shoving after the whistle? Prosser and Benn, maybe. Merrill's a p***ycat. I'll tell you another thing. If it came to a fight, i think Addison would take Merrill, and maybe Prosser.

Prosser was so bad he would go back to retrieve the puck then collapse around it like a dog expecting to be kicked. Why? Because he knew that he didn't have the skills to do anything else. I've seen Merrill do the same thing.

 

[Wabit]

Interesting. Kaprizov is actually the forward that he's played the most with 5v5 and the results don't seem to be too terrible:

53.42 CF
51.18 xGF
49.04 SCF
57.89 HDCF

Addison's numbers also much better without Merrill than with him, almost across the board.

Yep, but look at the actual on ice results of 3gf/13ga and the HD 1gf/6ga for Kap/Addison. Merrill/Addison and Addison numbers are pretty stable without Kaprizov.

Kap/Addison without Merrill are 1gf/9ga, Merrill/Kap/Addison are 2gf/4ga in similar amount of ToI splits.

I do think having a bigger body d-man on the ice is something both Addison and the Kap line need. Middleton and Merrill are the only d-men I consider fitting that bill. Sustr is a big body, but I can't say if he's any good or not (I can't recall the last NHL game I saw him play).

 

[Wabit]

Again, i think you are ignoring puck retrieval, and how important it is to playing in your won zone. Brodin is a master at it, Spurgeon is VG, Addison is above average. Getting back to the puck, quickly, then moving it either by passing (puck skill, vision), or skating it(puck skill, skating)out, eliminates to the need to get hemmed in your zone. Prosser was awful at it, as was Benn, because they were very slow, had little to no stick skills, no vision, and no ability to carry the puck. A rested Goligoski was/is vg, but he showed worrying signs of aging(slowing down) last year. Kulikov was decent last year...certainly better than Merrill and Benn, but everyone freaked out when he made some bad mistakes in the playoffs.

Benn's supposed skillset was being tough, but I saw him lose puck battle after puck battle, never fight, and basically be a pylon in the D zone, nvm the neutral zone and the rest of the ice surface.

None of those players can skate with Addison ( a younger Goligoski, sure), or have his ability to move the puck(excepting Goli). Merrill, Benn, and Prosser are a day late, and a dollar short, to any puck. Are they better than Addison at shoving after the whistle? Prosser and Benn, maybe. Merrill's a p***ycat. I'll tell you another thing. If it came to a fight, i think Addison would take Merrill, and maybe Prosser.

Prosser was so bad he would go back to retrieve the puck then collapse around it like a dog expecting to be kicked. Why? Because he knew that he didn't have the skills to do anything else. I've seen Merrill do the same thing.

Addison doesn't get the puck out of the zone either, unless it's on the PP or the other team goes off on a line change.

The other teams don't have to dump it in when Addison is on the ice 5v5. He's not going to stand anyone up on the blueline, he won't even give much pressure to the puck carrier.

All i see is it's a grind for MN to get the puck out of the d-zone and very little smooth transition game as a whole. The only out numbered rushes seem to be with Dewar/Shaw while on the PK.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Yep, but look at the actual on ice results of 3gf/13ga and the HD 1gf/6ga for Kap/Addison. Merrill/Addison and Addison numbers are pretty stable without Kaprizov.

Kap/Addison without Merrill are 1gf/9ga, Merrill/Kap/Addison are 2gf/4ga in similar amount of ToI splits.

I do think having a bigger body d-man on the ice is something both Addison and the Kap line need. Middleton and Merrill are the only d-men I consider fitting that bill. Sustr is a big body, but I can't say if he's any good or not (I can't recall the last NHL game I saw him play).

Yeah, it looks like they deserve better outcomes than what they’ve been getting so far.

 

[Wabit]

Yeah, it looks like they deserve better outcomes than what they’ve been getting so far.

I'm not a big fan of the xgf/a stats. It's just a shot location thing without accounting for other variables. It's an okay tool, but there are many other stats I prefer more (better?).

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I'm not a big fan of the xgf/a stats. It's just a shot location thing without accounting for other variables. It's an okay tool, but there are many other stats I prefer more (better?).

Such as?

 

[Wabit]

Such as?

Actual on-ice totals are my first look stat, and the quality of the chances/goals, FO zone starts.

The xg are in the same group as corsi and +/- for me. A quick reference point, but a very incomplete picture. People seem to like the xg stats so I reference them.

 

[57special]

Yep, but look at the actual on ice results of 3gf/13ga and the HD 1gf/6ga for Kap/Addison. Merrill/Addison and Addison numbers are pretty stable without Kaprizov.

Kap/Addison without Merrill are 1gf/9ga, Merrill/Kap/Addison are 2gf/4ga in similar amount of ToI splits.

I do think having a bigger body d-man on the ice is something both Addison and the Kap line need. Middleton and Merrill are the only d-men I consider fitting that bill. Sustr is a big body, but I can't say if he's any good or not (I can't recall the last NHL game I saw him play).

Sustr is awful, and not physical.

 

[HobeyBroten]

Addison has been scratched quite a bit lately. Do we expect to move him by TDL?

He has been our most productive D points wise, why would he keep getting benched?

 

[thestonedkoala]

Addison has been scratched quite a bit lately. Do we expect to move him by TDL?

He has been our most productive D points wise, why would he keep getting benched?

He's getting scratched because of his attitude.

 

[AKL]

Addison has been scratched quite a bit lately. Do we expect to move him by TDL?

He has been our most productive D points wise, why would he keep getting benched?

Showcasing Goligoski for the deadline, and a Goligoski-Addison pairing would be a mess, so they have to swap the two.