C Joseph Veleno - Saint John Sea Dogs, QMJHL (2018, 30th, DET)

[le_sean]

the Q has 10 out of top 25 scorers...**** league eh....

Again the question isn’t the Q’s ability to generate good offensive players, but rather it’s lack of good defenders and goaltenders. How many of the Top 30 NHL defenders come from the Q? Vlasic and Letang (when healthy)? And Top 15 goalies? Fleury who was a 1st overall pick 15 years ago. Anyone else? It’s a weaker league defensively, I think that’s the case historically too (a running joke in the 80s).

So a guy (an offensive centre) that has 40 career goals in 3 Q seasons is thought of as a possible Top 10 pick? I’m wary. I want much better production if my team sucks that much and are picking that high.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

A 37 powerplay sample is literally nothing, and prone to a bunch of statistical noise at that point. Even the best powerplays can run cold over 12 games.

If your argument of Hardie not having an impact on the Sea Dogs powerplay, is built on the premise he only had 1 powerplay goal, how do you explain Veleno only having 2 powerplay goals during his 31 game timeframe there?

You used the sample size/WJC excuse last month. Well, the sample size grew, and (surprise, surprise), their power play still sucks. Guess what? It's still going to suck for the remaining month and a half.

And Veleno was among the QMJHL leaders in PP assists during his time in Saint John, which was operating at close to 20% with him running it. It's called running a power play. Adam Oates (for example) had a whopping three PPG's for the Blues in 1991. Why? Because he was feeding pucks from behind the net to the circles.

And Hardie was a passenger on that first power play unit -- swapping with Safin for the slot. It ran through Veleno at the point, with Salda doing the puck carrying and Pare on the wall.

I mean, come on. I get that you don't like Veleno but he ran two power plays for two different teams at a combined 24% clip -- and they both stunk without him.

 

[93LEAFS]

You used the sample size/WJC excuse last month. Well, the sample size grew, and (surprise, surprise), their power play still sucks. Guess what? It's still going to suck for the remaining month and a half.

And Veleno was among the QMJHL leaders in PP assists during his time in Saint John, which was operating at close to 20% with him running it. It's called running a power play. Adam Oates (for example) had a whopping three PPG's for the Blues in 1991. Why? Because he was feeding pucks from behind the net to the circles.

And Hardie was a passenger on that first power play unit -- swapping with Safin for the slot. It ran through Veleno at the point, with Salda doing the puck carrying and Pare on the wall.

I mean, come on. I get that you don't like Veleno but he ran two power plays for two different teams at a combined 24% clip -- and they both stunk without him.

Well, you used a sample of a powerplay that lost 4 of 5 starters. Which is why that sample was extremely flawed. When you remove that much, trying to attribute anything to one player at that point is ridiculous. Since then, we have a 37 Powerplay sample. It's not an excuse, it is an actual fact. The sample really only became relevant when they got atleast 2 of those players back. Break up any teams powerplay into 12 game samples and you will see erratic returns. If you are going to build an argument around statistics. you should at least recognize the inherent flaws in small sample sizes.

You are the one who pointed to PPG's as a key metric to the effectiveness of Hardie on the powerplay. Now, you want to say Joe Veleno is Adam Oates because it fits your argument. I never said powerplay goals was the key of an individual player, you did to discredit Hardie. All, I did was point out Veleno had all of 2 goals.

I'm not a big fan of Veleno, I don't think he sees passing lanes quickly at least to be a high-end NHL playmaker. He's fast and works hard. That skill set allows him to produce right now, similar to how Mikey McLeod puts up sizable numbers in his draft year. Its a skill set that will probably lead to him having a long NHL career. He's quickly improving his stock with his play.

 

[Mark Edwards]

Stats matter but they can only take you so far, you need to watch games. Veleno had 3 goals on Tuesday night, looks great on the stat sheet but slightly less impressive if you saw the game. One empty netter and one was pretty much scored by the Rouyn Dman. Even the 3rd goal was not some super skilled goal, he tapped in a puck that was sitting on the edge of the goal line. That said, he works hard and creates opportunities. He forced the bad turnover that created the 2nd goal.

I've actually spoken to quite a few scouts this week about him. Biggest recurring comment they give me is questionable hockey sense and lack of pure scoring ability. He's shown both those issues in several of my viewings of him this season. I'm not hater, I like a lot of elements of his game. The issue I have is that, for me the elements I like in his game don't equate to ranking him up there with some of the other players in this draft.

As for the Q is a weak league conversation. My take is that the league has and will continue to send some great players to the NHL. That said, be careful looking at numbers...the bottom of the rosters in the Q can be downright awful on some teams. Also, it's always nice to see if the player just lights up some of the weak sisters in the league for big point games...watching them play the top teams might be slightly more important when scouting some seasons in the Q.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Well, you used a sample of a powerplay that lost 4 of 5 starters. Which is why that sample was extremely flawed. When you remove that much, trying to attribute anything to one player at that point is ridiculous. Since then, we have a 37 Powerplay sample. It's not an excuse, it is an actual fact. The sample really only became relevant when they got atleast 2 of those players back. Break up any teams powerplay into 12 game samples and you will see erratic returns. If you are going to build an argument around statistics. you should at least recognize the inherent flaws in small sample sizes.

You are the one who pointed to PPG's as a key metric to the effectiveness of Hardie on the powerplay. Now, you want to say Joe Veleno is Adam Oates because it fits your argument. I never said powerplay goals was the key of an individual player, you did to discredit Hardie. All, I did was point out Veleno had all of 2 goals.

I'm not a big fan of Veleno, I don't think he sees passing lanes quickly at least to be a high-end NHL playmaker. He's fast and works hard. That skill set allows him to produce right now, similar to how Mikey McLeod puts up sizable numbers in his draft year. Its a skill set that will probably lead to him having a long NHL career. He's quickly improving his stock with his play.

It's actually two combined sample sizes I'm using -- Saint John's PP with and without Veleno running it and Drummondville's without and with him running it.

Facts:

Saint John's had an effective PP before trading Veleno.

Drummondville had an ineffective PP before acquiring Veleno.

Saint John's PP has struggled mightily since the Veleno trade.

Drummondville's PP improved significantly since the Veleno trade.

Veleno leads the entire QMJHL in PP assists.

Rocket science not needed to deduce Veleno's impact on a power play is more his doing than mere coincidence

 

[93LEAFS]

It's actually two combined sample sizes I'm using -- Saint John's PP with and without Veleno running it and Drummondville's without and with him running it.

Facts:

Saint John's had an effective PP before trading Veleno.

Drummondville had an ineffective PP before acquiring Veleno.

Saint John's PP has struggled mightily since the Veleno trade.

Drummondville's PP improved significantly since the Veleno trade.

Veleno leads the entire QMJHL in PP assists.

Rocket science not needed to deduce Veleno's impact on a power play is more his doing than mere coincidence

The extent you are crediting to Veleno for Saint Johns is a bit much given you really only have 12 games and 37 powerplays to point to. A natural decrease would be expected because it trickles down into their 2nd units due to depth.

But whatever, we clearly disagree on the extent of the importance of what you can measure over 37 powerplays. You think that's an adequate sample size, I don't. It doesn't matter if you try to add the Drummondville powerplays to the sample size, as both are inherently small pools and don't equate to a significantly larger one because you are measuring too seperate things (the absence of Veleno, and the addition of Veleno, without him being the only change).

 

[Steve Kournianos]

The extent you are crediting to Veleno for Saint Johns is a bit much given you really only have 12 games and 37 powerplays to point to. A natural decrease would be expected because it trickles down into their 2nd units due to depth.

But whatever, we clearly disagree on the extent of the importance of what you can measure over 37 powerplays. You think that's an adequate sample size, I don't. It doesn't matter if you try to add the Drummondville powerplays to the sample size, as both are inherently small pools and don't equate to a significantly larger one because you are measuring too seperate things (the absence of Veleno, and the addition of Veleno, without him being the only change).

Trends. Again, trends. What's your threshold when a trend becomes reality?

Because in the 21 games without Veleno -- 40% of their season -- the Saint John power play has been poor.

You used the WJC excuse -- a sample size of six whole games without Salda/Safin -- as a factor in the decline of Saint John's PP, but dismiss the 12 games they've played since they returned?

This is the second time in a month you've clung to the size of a sample to dismiss Veleno's impact on a power play, and you even went as far to dismiss calling him a PP specialist when he leads his whole damn league in PP assists -- the definition of a PP specialist is someone who produces on the power play.

Regardless, Veleno is white hot and most recent rankings by people other than me seem to acknowledge that.

 

[93LEAFS]

Trends. Again, trends. What's your threshold when a trend becomes reality?

Because in the 21 games without Veleno -- 40% of their season -- the Saint John power play has been poor.

You used the WJC excuse -- a sample size of six whole games without Salda/Safin -- as a factor in the decline of Saint John's PP, but dismiss the 12 games they've played since they returned?

This is the second time in a month you've clung to the size of a sample to dismiss Veleno's impact on a power play, and you even went as far to dismiss calling him a PP specialist when he leads his whole damn league in PP assists -- the definition of a PP specialist is someone who produces on the power play.

Regardless, Veleno is white hot and most recent rankings by people other than me seem to acknowledge that.

I don't fully dismiss them, but it is a very small sample size to measure a PP effectiveness.

I'll still dismiss calling him a PP specialist, at least if that is what you are projecting him to be at the NHL level. Look at the level of offensive talent it takes for a player to run a powerplay at the NHL level. I simply don't see him having that. He's closer to a guy like Dylan Larkin who can play on the powerplay, but he isn't someone you run your powerplay through. Young guys who come into the league who teams use as their powerplay QB are quite rare, and tend to destory junior or the NCAA to a much higher level. For example, McDavid, Marner, Drouin, Eichel, Huberdeau, Keller or Gaudreau. That's even if a team uses a forward in that role, as many also will run it through a defender like Karlsson, Josi and Klingberg. Look at the players who QB NHL powerplay 1st units, and I don't see Veleno having the talent to be that guy. I would think even the people who are high on him aren't expecting an elite NHL PP player. There are very limited spots to be that guy in the role he has success in at the QMJHL. Tons of players excel at things in juniors that have a limited chance of carrying over to the NHL.

No other ranking has him close to as high as you. No one else has him above 12 at the moment. McKenzie has him at 15, HockeyProspect.com has him at 20, with their head Quebec scout in extremely close proximity to Drummondville, and Button has him at 25. In my eyes, he's very similar to Mikey McLeod, who was a top 15 pick, and will probably carve out an NHL career.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

I don't fully dismiss them, but it is a very small sample size to measure a PP effectiveness.

I'll still dismiss calling him a PP specialist, at least if that is what you are projecting him to be at the NHL level. Look at the level of offensive talent it takes for a player to run a powerplay at the NHL level. I simply don't see him having that. He's closer to a guy like Dylan Larkin who can play on the powerplay, but he isn't someone you run your powerplay through. Young guys who come into the league who teams use as their powerplay QB are quite rare, and tend to destory junior or the NCAA to a much higher level. For example, McDavid, Marner, Drouin, Eichel, Huberdeau, Keller or Gaudreau. That's even if a team uses a forward in that role, as many also will run it through a defender like Karlsson, Josi and Klingberg. Look at the players who QB NHL powerplay 1st units, and I don't see Veleno having the talent to be that guy. I would think even the people who are high on him aren't expecting an elite NHL PP player. There are very limited spots to be that guy in the role he has success in at the QMJHL. Tons of players excel at things in juniors that have a limited chance of carrying over to the NHL.

No other ranking has him close to as high as you. No one else has him above 12 at the moment. McKenzie has him at 15, HockeyProspect.com has him at 20, with their head Quebec scout in extremely close proximity to Drummondville, and Button has him at 25. In my eyes, he's very similar to Mikey McLeod, who was a top 15 pick, and will probably carve out an NHL career.

I didnt say everyone ranked him high. I said most everyone gave him a bump in their rankings. So he must be doing something right in their eyes. Maybe you can ask them why a flawed prospect like Veleno went up to get a broader collection of opinions. Especially after some were so down on his game.

As for the power play stuff, he's run three of them under three different coaches in half a draft year and did so with a high success rate. Future coaches would be stupid not to use him the same way, or at least groom him to contribute in an area of responsibility he's cleary -- clearly -- talented and smart enough to oversee.

 

[Tutu to]

That doesn't mean it transfers better. You don't just take a snapshot of the league at a random time and think that makes it accurate. Historically WHL scoring transfers better. Those numbers aren't picked out of thin air, they are done by studying the success rate of players from each league. I mean, it also evaluates all the guys who score at extremely high-rates and go on to be nothing.

I mean, Crosby not being a beast scoring would be unheard of, he scored at an absolutely ridiculous rate regardless of league. Kucherov spent like 40 games in the Q, and Voracek entered the QMJHL as an expected top 15 pick.

the Q has historically had better forwards then the W as well. Its not just currently.

 

[schnapshot]

the Q has historically had better forwards then the W as well. Its not just currently.

I think the W is better at producing defensemen but the Q is much better at producing forwards.

The most productive forward from the W this year (Schenn) is currently 19th in the NHL. In the top 30 there are only two (other one is Barzal). In the top 50 there are 6, while there are 12 from the Q.

 

[93LEAFS]

the Q has historically had better forwards then the W as well. Its not just currently.

That doesn’t mean a point in the QMJHL is equal or means more. Look at the rates elite scorers in the NHL who played in the WHL scored at. Historically it is a lower number when you look at guys like Getzlaf and Benn.

You are looking at pools of 100s of players and seeing how scoring as a whole carries over. You can pick outliers in any direction.

That doesn’t make the QMJHL a bad league, it’s just that if two kids born in the same month and the same year and score at the exact same rate with one in the WHL and the other in the QMJHL, the kid in the WHL is more likely to be successful in the NHL. Obviously, when scouting a bunch more stuff comes into play.

 

[Janne Niinimaa]

Already 2 points tonight for Veleno. A goal and an assist, both on the power play. He is very, very good on the power play. Shows a lot of patience and creativity.

 

[Dominance]

Already 2 points tonight for Veleno. A goal and an assist, both on the power play. He is very, very good on the power play. Shows a lot of patience and creativity.

Doesn’t have the IQ to be an offensive threat at the next level.

 

[Breakfast of Champs]

4th consecutive 3 point game.

13 game point streak, 30 points.

 

[1972]

As for the Q is a weak league conversation. My take is that the league has and will continue to send some great players to the NHL. That said, be careful looking at numbers...the bottom of the rosters in the Q can be downright awful on some teams. Also, it's always nice to see if the player just lights up some of the weak sisters in the league for big point games...watching them play the top teams might be slightly more important when scouting some seasons in the Q.

This last part is just great advise....some players rack up serious points against the piss poor teams. That’s partly why I love Svechnikov in this years draft, that kid just scores against everybody.

 

[Anardil]

I admit that I have not seen much of Veleno, but from the little that I have seen and from reading much more from more knowledgeable people, I would be extremely disappointed if the Habs use a top ten pick on this player. Everything screams Tomas Plekanec as his ceiling. I expect more from an early pick.

 

[Lebowski]

I admit that I have not seen much of Veleno, but from the little that I have seen and from reading much more from more knowledgeable people, I would be extremely disappointed if the Habs use a top ten pick on this player. Everything screams Tomas Plekanec as his ceiling. I expect more from an early pick.

How, exactly?

Also, peak Plekanec was a low-end 1st line two-way center. We could do a lot worse with a top 10 pick.

 

[Janne Niinimaa]

I admit that I have not seen much of Veleno, but from the little that I have seen and from reading much more from more knowledgeable people, I would be extremely disappointed if the Habs use a top ten pick on this player. Everything screams Tomas Plekanec as his ceiling. I expect more from an early pick.

His passing and hands are arguably already better than Plekanec.

 

[Anardil]

I believe that Veleno could be the 55-65 point Plekanec, if he reaches his full potential. An above average two way 2nd line center. I know that the potential for worse is also possible. I just want a higher potential ceiling with a top 10 pick.

How, exactly?

Also, peak Plekanec was a low-end 1st line two-way center. We could do a lot worse with a top 10 pick.

 

[StatisticsAddict99]

I believe that Veleno could be the 55-65 point Plekanec, if he reaches his full potential. An above average two way 2nd line center. I know that the potential for worse is also possible. I just want a higher potential ceiling with a top 10 pick.

I think it’s possible he cranks a couple PPG+(Allot of those points would have to come from the PP though) seasons depending on what team he lands on and the role he is given, that’s his max potential to me.

 

[Masch78]

He will go in the top 10.

 

[Balthazar]

He will go in the top 10.

Around #6 to #8 would be my guess

 

[Redder Winger]

How does Veleno compare to a young Patrice Bergeron?

 

[goonybird]

How does Veleno compare to a young Patrice Bergeron?

I think Hischier is a better comparison for young Patrice Bergeron.

Veleno is more like a Joe Thornton, but obviously nowhere near as good. Style-wise though he's a set-up guy who can play the rest of the game average or better.

Maybe a more gifted Zajac?