C Joseph Veleno - Saint John Sea Dogs, QMJHL (2018, 30th, DET)

[93LEAFS]

Meh, we'll see. If Veleno doesnt really progress at all from here he'll be more like Mcleod. McLeod was never the go to guy on his team, and 2 years post draft he was 6th on his team in scoring. Veleno was at least the clear number one guy on a bad team, then he went to a new team and was cleary the top guy for 33 games prior to his draft year.

Mcleod didnt have a run like Veleno did to end this season in his entire junior career 2 years post draft. Veleno still has 2 years to build on that. I dont think hes some blue chip cant miss prospect but I dont think comparing him to a guy who regressed over his junior career is fair either. At the point of them each being drafted I would say theyre somewhat comparable and Mcleod went 12th (without having a showig like Veleno did to end the season) helping my point that hes probably a little lower than he should be. But development isnt linear and that happened to Mcleod

On top of that, we dont really know what McLeod will be at the next level so hard to say what type of player he even is

I compared him to McLeod before McLeod regressed this year, I've said it for like 10 months.

McLeod absolutely was the go-to guy for Sauga last year and was on equal footing with Alex Nylander in 2015/16.

Here are there 17-year-old season numbers when you adjust their numbers for age and league.

McLeod 2015/16: 1.19

Veleno: 2017:18: 1.14

 

[newfy]

I've seen a lot of Esposito comparisons, but they are ludicrous. He was a problem child the moment he refused to play for Saint John if drafted (and subsequently 9 other teams) and fell in the JUNIOR draft. He then got worse as he got older because he didn't think he had to try. He was the 2nd coming of Alexandre Daigle had a team been dumb enough to draft him where he was originally predicted to go.

Veleno has none of the attitude/motivation problems. He's just not a driver of goal scoring, and is best served by being put with a scoring winger. (Zajac and Parise, Bozak and Kessel, etc.) I think he'll be better than those centres but he's not someone who can consistently pass their way into 100 pts with dog**** wingers like Thornton, Savard, Crosby, etc have/do.

Ya a lot of these comparisons are bad because theyre taking players who got worse and projected that this will happen to Veleno for some reason. Esposito regressed literally every year in the Q and was lazy as F. Mcleod, regressed offensively for whatever reason.

Veleno may not be living up to his exceptional status, but hes gotten better every year and finished the season answering a lot of the ?'s about his game. A lot of people thought he wasnt scoring because of the team in St John's, he left and tore the league up for almost half a season

 

[newfy]

I compared him to McLeod before McLeod regressed this year, I've said it for like 10 months.

McLeod absolutely was the go-to guy for Sauga last year and was on equal footing with Alex Nylander in 2015/16.

Here are there 17-year-old season numbers when you adjust their numbers for age and league.

McLeod 2015/16: 1.19

Veleno: 2017:18: 1.14

Yeah. And then Mcleod regressed/stagnated so its a moot point. Just because theyre similar in some ways doesnt mean Veleno is going to regress as well. That "style" of player doesnt automatically regress instead of developing further. Mcleod in his draft year was a very good prospect, he just couldnt put it together. Veleno still has time to put it together.

Youre also not taking their teams into consideration. One guy was on a very middle of the pack team, had some skill to play with, the other was on the worst team in the league with the second least goals for. When youre primarily a play maker thats going to impact you.

Aside from the fact that you cant assume he'll regress/stagnate, I think your comparison falls flat based on the last 33 games of the season this year for Veleno. You cant deny the fact that Mcleod never came close to that type of a run for a half a season (playoffs included), building up to his draft year

 

[93LEAFS]

Yeah. And then Mcleod regressed/stagnated so its a moot point. Just because theyre similar in some ways doesnt mean Veleno is going to regress as well. That "style" of player doesnt automatically regress instead of developing further. Mcleod in his draft year was a very good prospect, he just couldnt put it together. Veleno still has time to put it together.

Youre also not taking their teams into consideration. One guy was on a very middle of the pack team, had some skill to play with, the other was on the worst team in the league with the second least goals for. When youre primarily a play maker thats going to impact you.

Aside from the fact that you cant assume he'll regress/stagnate, I think your comparison falls flat based on the last 33 games of the season this year for Veleno. You cant deny the fact that Mcleod never came close to that type of a run for a half a season (playoffs included), building up to his draft year

Good players drag up bad teams, especially in the QMJHL. If you can't do it at that level, then expecting a good offensive player in the NHL is reaching. You keep on pointing to his last 33 games, where he landed on a stacked team, why should we ignore the first half and focus on that?

He was a fine pick at 30, but don't act like he's significantly better than that. There's a reason he slipped to 30. He's not a significantly better player than Ryan McLeod.

To start off his draft season, McLeod put up 1.27 ppg in his first 33 games, which when factoring how scoring translates historically translates for junior players from each league, is on par with Veleno 1.5 in the QMJHL. They adjust to pretty much the exact same rate before factoring in age (which is about a month cohort wise, so it doesn't matter).

 

[ijuka]

I still am of the opinion that people aren't thinking about Veleno as simply a prospect within this draft, they're talking about him as a disappointing exceptional player.

At above, developing over the season is better than regressing, right?

Veleno could be NHL ready even next season.

 

[Ishad]

Can only imagine what this thread would look like if he had gone 29th overall.

 

[93LEAFS]

I still am of the opinion that people aren't thinking about Veleno as simply a prospect within this draft, they're talking about him as a disappointing exceptional player.

At above, developing over the season is better than regressing, right?

Veleno could be NHL ready even next season.

It is not like his numbers improved while playing for the same team. They changed going to a much more favorable position. His playoff numbers were pretty much in line with his SJ numbers too. He had a big spike in January and early Feb then slowed down in the back half.

Can only imagine what this thread would look like if he had gone 29th overall.

Considering I've said this about Veleno for most of the year, I don't think my opinion of him would have dramatically changed if he put on a Leafs uniform. I'd be more optimistic about him fixing these issues possibly, but they wouldn't change on what he currently is or what he realistically projects too.

 

[newfy]

Good players drag up bad teams, especially in the QMJHL. If you can't do it at that level, then expecting a good offensive player in the NHL is reaching. You keep on pointing to his last 33 games, where he landed on a stacked team, why should we ignore the first half and focus on that?

He was a fine pick at 30, but don't act like he's significantly better than that. There's a reason he slipped to 30. He's not a significantly better player than Ryan McLeod.

To start off his draft season, McLeod put up 1.27 ppg in his first 33 games, which when factoring how scoring translates historically translates for junior players from each league, is on par with Veleno 1.5 in the QMJHL. They adjust to pretty much the exact same rate before factoring in age (which is about a month cohort wise, so it doesn't matter).

Well you dont have to ignore the first half of the season. But he was clearly the top guy on a bad team in his draft year. Being the best player on your team in your draft year isnt a bad thing. Maybe he was dragging up a bad team, I would like to see St Johns record without him after the trade but cant find it. I dont think you ignore the first half but you take it with some context, the team was brutal. How often are guys their teams best player in their draft year? Its rare outside of top 10ish picks.

Its also important to develop over the course of the year. Give me the guy with the hot 40 games to end the year over the guy who has s slow end to the year and a fast start. It needs to be taken with some context as well though. He went to a stacked team and was by far the teams best player.

Say what you want about comparing him to the Mcleods (guys who we dont know how theyll pan out), but every team Veleno has been on this year hes been the best player. On a bottom feeder he didnt put up great numbers but still put up the best numbers. On a top team his numbers jumped significantly and he was the top guy there as well. You said his playoff numbers went back to normal, but he still tied to lead the highest scoring team in the Q in playoff points and goals. Might be a case of needing good finishers because he really isnt a scorer, might be nothing and just a coincidence. But its definitely something the Mcleods havent done before

 

[AveryStar4Eva]

Can only imagine what this thread would look like if he had gone 29th overall.

He would be the next Crosby and the steal of the century. I’ll say that I would have been okay with Dallas taking Veleno at 13. Think he’s got 2C upside.

 

[93LEAFS]

Well you dont have to ignore the first half of the season. But he was clearly the top guy on a bad team in his draft year. Being the best player on your team in your draft year isnt a bad thing. Maybe he was dragging up a bad team, I would like to see St Johns record without him after the trade but cant find it. I dont think you ignore the first half but you take it with some context, the team was brutal. How often are guys their teams best player in their draft year? Its rare outside of top 10ish picks.

Its also important to develop over the course of the year. Give me the guy with the hot 40 games to end the year over the guy who has s slow end to the year and a fast start. It needs to be taken with some context as well though. He went to a stacked team and was by far the teams best player.

Say what you want about comparing him to the Mcleods (guys who we dont know how theyll pan out), but every team Veleno has been on this year hes been the best player. On a bottom feeder he didnt put up great numbers but still put up the best numbers. On a top team his numbers jumped significantly and he was the top guy there as well. You said his playoff numbers went back to normal, but he still tied to lead the highest scoring team in the Q in playoff points and goals. Might be a case of needing good finishers because he really isnt a scorer, might be nothing and just a coincidence. But its definitely something the Mcleods havent done before

McLeod got injured which led to his slow close to the 2015/16 season.

I think its debatable if Veleno was better than Beaudin. Since the QMJHL site is a mess right now, I'm not sure your claims about Veleno having the best numbers on St. John are correct. I'm pretty sure Ostap Safin was pretty much on par with him.

 

[goonybird]

people can't get over the fact that Veleno was a 6'1" 170 lbs 15 yr old that was shitting on his minor hockey counterparts and happened to be given exceptional status and played 4th line then 3rd line on some top teams, then act surprised that he can't drag up a team whose next best offensive player is a 7th round defenceman

whoopdie cockadoodle do

 

[A Few Good Males]

So this is an interesting thread. Especially if you go back about ten pages.

 

[Frk It]

He was a fine pick at 30, but don't act like he's significantly better than that. There's a reason he slipped to 30. He's not a significantly better player than Ryan McLeod.

To start off his draft season, McLeod put up 1.27 ppg in his first 33 games, which when factoring how scoring translates historically translates for junior players from each league, is on par with Veleno 1.5 in the QMJHL. They adjust to pretty much the exact same rate before factoring in age (which is about a month cohort wise, so it doesn't matter).

Maybe just in terms of PPG, sure. I think he is much less of a perimeter player than Ryan McLeod is and plays with more grit, and therefore projects better as a player in the pros.

Think we are getting a little bit too locked into these McLeod bros comparisons. There are other players he plays similarly to as well. He is not tied to the fate of the McLeod bros just because they have some similar qualities.

 

[Frk It]

He was a fine pick at 30, but don't act like he's significantly better than that. There's a reason he slipped to 30. He's not a significantly better player than Ryan McLeod.

To start off his draft season, McLeod put up 1.27 ppg in his first 33 games, which when factoring how scoring translates historically translates for junior players from each league, is on par with Veleno 1.5 in the QMJHL. They adjust to pretty much the exact same rate before factoring in age (which is about a month cohort wise, so it doesn't matter).

Maybe just in terms of PPG, sure. I think he is much less of a perimeter player than Ryan McLeod is and plays with more jam, and therefore projects better as a player in the pros.

Think we are getting a little bit too locked into these McLeod bros comparisons. There are other players he plays similarly to as well. He is not tied to the fate of the McLeod bros just because they have some similar qualities.