C Connor Bedard (2023, 1st, CHI) Part 6

[deleted user]

We have a lot of high picks in the next few drafts. Hopefully we hit on a number of them. I have no problem with the rebuild but it can be a little frustrating to see him trying to create with a bunch of plugs around him.

With you there. You're the only other team I try to keep up with. Bedard is worth watching. I hope you guys hit big on those picks.

 

[Sergei Shirokov]

Wow that was incredible. Almost no one shoots like this, ever.

He's going to be the next 60 goal scorer & thats an obvious statement more than any kind of prediction.

 

[Breakfast of Champs]

We have a lot of high picks in the next few drafts. Hopefully we hit on a number of them. I have no problem with the rebuild but it can be a little frustrating to see him trying to create with a bunch of plugs around him.

It's not his floor lol, MacKinnon is a 2x runner up for the hart and 3 time finalist. Had Mcdavid not existed he would have been strongly in consideration for best player in the world for a few years.

He will certainly score more goals, probably more pts too , but MacKinnon is absolutely a game changing player.

Mack is probably his mid tier projection. There's definitely a *chance* Bedard is never a top 2-3 player in the world.

I think he will be, but it's not his floor

Edit - replied to the wrong person meant to reply to the one saying his floor was mack

 

[Raistlin]

To be that accurate in that awkward a position mid stride with the patience of mind to change direction. At the very least, that is not what any teenager is supposed to do. He has a Sakic like progression ahead of him.

 

[pvr]

Vlasic, having a revelatory rookie year, with the perfect pass.

 

[JaegerDice]

It's not his floor lol, MacKinnon is a 2x runner up for the hart and 3 time finalist. Had Mcdavid not existed he would have been strongly in consideration for best player in the world for a few years.

He will certainly score more goals, probably more pts too , but MacKinnon is absolutely a game changing player.

Mack is probably his mid tier projection. There's definitely a *chance* Bedard is never a top 2-3 player in the world.

I think he will be, but it's not his floor

Edit - replied to the wrong person meant to reply to the one saying his floor was mack

Fine, not his floor, but he’ll almost certainly be better and more impactful than Mackinnon once he hits his prime and has support.

How much better do you think 18 year old Mackinnon would be doing on this team? In 2014, on a division leading team (albeit one riding a monster PDO bender), Mackinnon scored 63 points while Bedard is on pace for 70 points.

 

[Breakfast of Champs]

Fine, not his floor, but he’ll almost certainly be better and more impactful than Mackinnon once he hits his prime and has support.

How much better do you think 18 year old Mackinnon would be doing on this team? In 2014, on a division leading team (albeit one riding a monster PDO bender), Mackinnon scored 63 points while Bedard is on pace for 70 points.

63 points ranked him 35 in the NHL.

Last year that was 78 pts.

I agree he should be better, but no guarantees

 

[JaegerDice]

63 points ranked him 35 in the NHL.

Last year that was 78 pts.

I agree he should be better, but no guarantees

Of course. Nothing’s guarenteed. This is all projection, educated guessing.

 

[Breakfast of Champs]

Of course. Nothing’s guarenteed. This is all projection, educated guessing.

Right, but to call it his floor is a bit silly

 

[EddieTheEagle]

I think anyone looking at guys like McDavid, Crosby, MacKinnon, etc. for comparing to Bedard really need to look at the Hawks versus the teams that those players stepped into. I don't think Bedard will go PPG or even possibly match MacKinnon's first year as a rookie but it isn't for a lack of talent or ability, the team is just so bad, he gets the worst match-ups, and has to generate offensive chances almost on his own.

Looking at these lists, it is insane he has been able to do anything close to what these other prominent players have done.

Penguins 2005-2006 - Crosby's First Season	Oilers 2015-2016 - McDavid's First Season	Avalanche 2013-2014 - MacKinnon's First Season	Blackhawks 2023-2024 - Bedard's First Season
Crosby	McDavid	MacKinnon	Bedard
Recchi	Hall	Duchene	Kurashev
Leclair	Draisaitl	Landeskog	Dickinson
Malone	Eberle	O'Reilly	Foligno
Armstrong	Pouliot	Stastny	Jones
Lemieux (limited games)	Nugent-Hopkins	E. Johnson	Donato
Palffy	Yakupov	Barrie	T. Johnson
Gonchar	Sekera	Tanguay (limited games)	Hall (limited games)
Whitney	Nurse	Sarich	Korchinski

 

[Blue and Green]

Right, but to call it his floor is a bit silly

I don't see anything silly about it. He's been an outlier all through his teen years and he's already producing offence on a team that doesn't have a single legit top-6 forward to support him. Outside of some kind of debilitating injury, there's no reason to believe that he's going to stall to such a point that he won't be an obvious Hall of Fame player.

 

[Faceboner]

Just wait a short 2 years from now about this same time of season when he’s just turned 20. Hawks are gonna be absolutely loaded with complimentary young talent to surround him with. They’re stockpiling those 1st and 2nd rounders. This is the very beginning stage of their plan.

Not every first round player is gonna jump to the NHL right away though you need to at least insulate other young players with better talent Moore and nazar might not be ready two years from now only player I see being ready next year is celebrini everyone else looks two years out from this draft

 

[SimpleJack]

Bedard will look really good with whoever they grab in the next draft. Patience will pay off, hopefully.

Yup exactly ….As I said earlier they have multiple 1sts(including a likely top 3 overall) AND multiple 2nds in each of the next 2 upcoming drafts(‘24 and ‘25)….plus multiple 1st rounders waiting in the pipeline that they’ve already drafted in ‘22 and ‘23(Nazar, Moore, Rinzel) who we haven’t seen yet….you add all of this up in about 2 years it’s gonna go from “Wow poor Bedard has nobody to play with” to “They are loaded with young talent”. Oh yeah and then factor in all the cap space they’ll eventually put to good use by spending big on additional upgrades in FA.

It’s basically only this season that Bedard will be with severely limited options as teammates/linemates. By next season you’ll already notice a major difference. By 2025 it’s really gonna start adding up and the rebuild will be near complete.

Not every first round player is gonna jump to the NHL right away though you need to at least insulate other young players with better talent Moore and nazar might not be ready two years from now only player I see being ready next year is celebrini everyone else looks two years out from this draft

You honestly don’t think Moore and Nazar will be NHL ready by 2025?? I expect both will make the team out of camp and be part of next seasons opening night lineup.

 

[Faceboner]

We have a lot of high picks in the next few drafts. Hopefully we hit on a number of them. I have no problem with the rebuild but it can be a little frustrating to see him trying to create with a bunch of plugs around him.

The picks are fantastic but they need to at least make a trade for a top 9 player who could be considered overpaid and get a 3rd out of it if anyone like that is valuable.

 

[Faceboner]

Yup exactly ….As I said earlier they have multiple 1sts(including a likely top 3 overall) AND multiple 2nds in each of the next 2 upcoming drafts(‘24 and ‘25)….plus multiple 1st rounders waiting in the pipeline that they’ve already drafted in ‘22 and ‘23(Nazar, Moore, Rinzel) who we haven’t seen yet….you add all of this up in about 2 years it’s gonna go from “Wow poor Bedard has nobody to play with” to “They are loaded with young talent”. Oh yeah and then factor in all the cap space they’ll eventually put to good use by spending big on additional upgrades in FA.

It’s basically only this season that Bedard will be with severely limited options as teammates/linemates. By next season you’ll already notice a major difference. By 2025 it’s really gonna start adding up and the rebuild will be near complete.



You honestly don’t think Moore and Nazar will be NHL ready by 2025??

Nhl ready possibly but nazar missed a year last year Moore could possibly make I don't believe they will be good enough to make substantial difference in their rookie year still think they would need to be insulated with better talent

 

[SimpleJack]

Nhl ready possibly but nazar missed a year last year Moore could possibly make I don't believe they will be good enough to make substantial difference in their rookie year still think they would need to be insulated with better talent

I agree about them not being difference makers as rookies/if they’re on the roster next season. The team will still be bad next season regardless, as is part of the plan/process. And I agree that they will need to make trades to upgrade and put proven NHL talent around them. The time will come for all of that. As for now there’s no need to worry about it because there’s no rush.

I think anyone looking at guys like McDavid, Crosby, MacKinnon, etc. for comparing to Bedard really need to look at the Hawks versus the teams that those players stepped into. I don't think Bedard will go PPG or even possibly match MacKinnon's first year as a rookie but it isn't for a lack of talent or ability, the team is just so bad, he gets the worst match-ups, and has to generate offensive chances almost on his own.

Looking at these lists, it is insane he has been able to do anything close to what these other prominent players have done.

Penguins 2005-2006 - Crosby's First Season	Oilers 2015-2016 - McDavid's First Season	Avalanche 2013-2014 - MacKinnon's First Season	Blackhawks 2023-2024 - Bedard's First Season
Crosby	McDavid	MacKinnon	Bedard
Recchi	Hall	Duchene	Kurashev
Leclair	Draisaitl	Landeskog	Dickinson
Malone	Eberle	O'Reilly	Foligno
Armstrong	Pouliot	Stastny	Jones
Lemieux (limited games)	Nugent-Hopkins	E. Johnson	Donato
Palffy	Yakupov	Barrie	T. Johnson
Gonchar	Sekera	Tanguay (limited games)	Hall (limited games)
Whitney	Nurse	Sarich	Korchinski

Incredible post. Spot on.

 

[wetcoast]

That is a goal scorers goal.

 

[FDBluth]

I think Mackinnon might be his floor, honestly. He’s barely 18, has zero support and is still the most dangerous player on the ice most nights.

To me I think he has almost unlimited because of his dual threat of scoring and playmaking. But he also seems a little greener than Crosby or McDavid did when they entered the league, so there's more room for improvement. He isn't quite the skater that either were so he'll need to figure out how to best get to his spots. Of course having a teammate or two that didn't handle the puck like a hand grenade would help a lot.

 

[Slats432]

I think anyone looking at guys like McDavid, Crosby, MacKinnon, etc. for comparing to Bedard really need to look at the Hawks versus the teams that those players stepped into. I don't think Bedard will go PPG or even possibly match MacKinnon's first year as a rookie but it isn't for a lack of talent or ability, the team is just so bad, he gets the worst match-ups, and has to generate offensive chances almost on his own.

Looking at these lists, it is insane he has been able to do anything close to what these other prominent players have done.

Penguins 2005-2006 - Crosby's First Season	Oilers 2015-2016 - McDavid's First Season	Avalanche 2013-2014 - MacKinnon's First Season	Blackhawks 2023-2024 - Bedard's First Season
Crosby	McDavid	MacKinnon	Bedard
Recchi	Hall	Duchene	Kurashev
Leclair	Draisaitl	Landeskog	Dickinson
Malone	Eberle	O'Reilly	Foligno
Armstrong	Pouliot	Stastny	Jones
Lemieux (limited games)	Nugent-Hopkins	E. Johnson	Donato
Palffy	Yakupov	Barrie	T. Johnson
Gonchar	Sekera	Tanguay (limited games)	Hall (limited games)
Whitney	Nurse	Sarich	Korchinski

I made this point on the Oilers board about how McDavid played with some decent players. Oilers were a bottom 3 team but they lost a lot of close games. Bedard is playing with a pile of dogshit and is still near a PPG pace. Put him on any team with a few decent players and he could be over a PPG as a rookie.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

I made this point on the Oilers board about how McDavid played with some decent players. Oilers were a bottom 3 team but they lost a lot of close games. Bedard is playing with a pile of dogshit and is still near a PPG pace. Put him on any team with a few decent players and he could be over a PPG as a rookie.

McDavid played with a combination of Pouliot, Maroon, Eberle, and Yakupov in his rookie year, not exactly an impressive group either.

The main difference is on the PP. The Hawks PP is utterly incompetent and McDavid definitely had more to work with there.

 

[Faceboner]

McDavid played with a combination of Pouliot, Maroon, Eberle, and Yakupov in his rookie year, not exactly an impressive group either.

The main difference is on the PP. The Hawks PP is utterly incompetent and McDavid definitely had more to work with there.

Eberle was a solid top 6 player pouliot was slight cut above what Bedard has and same with maroon to a lesser extent

 

[EddieTheEagle]

McDavid played with a combination of Pouliot, Maroon, Eberle, and Yakupov in his rookie year, not exactly an impressive group either.

The main difference is on the PP. The Hawks PP is utterly incompetent and McDavid definitely had more to work with there.

I agree that it isn't an impressive group of players but the real value in being on the roster he was is that teams had to, at the very least, worry about other match-ups and had folks to cook with on the PP. If you weren't focusing in on McDavid, you had to worry about Hall, RNH, and Drai who are great players in their own right.

The Hawks have none of that. The next most "dangerous" line they have is Dickinson, Foligno, and Joey Anderson. Like, really? That is insane.

 

[Oscar The Grouch]

That goal is ridiculous. He basically passes it back to himself behind his inside foot and somehow gets his stick there first to one-time his own pass top corner.

 

[Artorius Horus T]

i know that he is 18 and a rookie, so inconsistency is an issue but man
when he is having a bad game, not scoring, its really bad.

11 games 0+0 -11 (0.00 ppg)
18 games 12+12 -4 (1.40 ppg)

i have been happily surprised how much he has been scoring though,
goals and points, was not expecting this much production, 30+ goals 65+ point pace
really impressive from 5 foot 9 rookie center.

 

[OKR]

It’s not even inconsistancy as much as it’s just playing on a bad team. When your team is allowing lot of goals against per game and you’re the only viable scoring option you’re bound to have lot minuses, it’s basically unavoidable.

Inconsistancy would mean he plays good one game and poor in the other, that’s not what’s happening with him.