Speculation: Burke (+You/DeLorean) vs. Shanahan

[indigobuffalo]

Assume you had a time machine, and you could travel back in time to when Burke had just completed the trade for Phil Kessel (September 19, 2009, the next day). You can tell him about the draft results, but he won't change his philosophy on playing style preferences and puck analytics, or possession systems. So the advice he will take will be for the best available "Burkian" players.

You can also make recommendations for FA signings, within reason. The player needs to be Burkian, and you can't sign players that were never going to sign in Toronto, like Parise/Suter, no matter what the pitch was. AND NO BACK-DIVING CONTRACTS!

Another caveat for all this is that for each subsequent year, your knowledge of the future becomes less and less relevant, because as timelines change, information from your present (the future) is no longer correct based on the changes you've created in the space-time continuum. (E.g. Leafs don't sign player X, who signs with another team, takes a roster spot from prospect Y, who doesn't develop properly, and doesn't become the Cody Ceci we know today). Also, as you "improve" the roster, predict how the season would finish and change the Leafs' draft position accordingly. Assume other teams draft the same player or next selection chronologically.

So what I mean about "Burkian" players are testosterone-filled, pugnacious, belligerent, and of course, truculent players. But you can guide him to the best ones of that mould. Keep in mind a very strong distaste for European players and especially Russians. So you can't convince Burke to select Tarasenko no matter how hard you try. Adding a rule here: Draft picks are set by nationality, you can only select a better player from that nation, or "upgrade" to a USA or CAN born player.


So that's option #1. And it's open to interpretation. So if you choose option one, post a 2015-16 roster (try and include cap numbers so it's somewhat realistic) and explain your choices. Trades are okay but within reason, preferably something that would have been seen as poor value at the time but with your knowledge of the future can be turned into a solid win. But NO MORE THAN two player acquisitions TOTAL via trade.

Option #2 is much easier to explain. It's the status quo. All those bad Burke/Nonis years, the last two under Shanahan, the implementation and gradual roll-out of the Shanaplan, hiring Lamoriello, Hunter, Dubas, the Analytics Wing, Babcock, Legends Row, the new logo, etc. etc.

So which would you choose?

Here are some resources, should you need them:
Links to each NHL Entry Draft: 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016
Links to NHL Transactions (by year): 2009 (*keep in mind everything prior to September 19, 2009 is set in stone), 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016
Leafs Prospects (Hockey's Future from September 25, 2009)
Roster as of September 19, 2009 (your starting point): Sorry, having trouble with this. If anyone else has this info as of September 19, 2009, please post it.

Click to read more...

 

[ACC1224]

#2, Kessel trade is never made if they know the pick would be #2 overall.

 

[indigobuffalo]

I'm going to try and post my "vision" of a Burke future, as an example, but I personally voted for the Shanaplan. And I was always a Burke supporter and still feel that given more time he could've built a more successful team. But in contrast to the Shanaplan, it's no contest IMO.

*UPDATE #1*
Okay, so as far as fixing the goalie situation... that's proving hard to do. There's no guarantee Reimer is ready for NHL action, although it's likely he'd do better than Toskala...

As for trades, I'm looking at acquiring Theodore out of WAS, but they have a very green Varlamov and again, can't see them dealing Theodore without a viable option to replace him. There's the possibility of dealing Gustavsson in return, but the league wouldn't have enough respect yet for an undrafted Swede, so can't see that happening...

So yeah. I can't see how you fix the Leafs' disastrous finish to the season.

I remember being big on trying to acquire Marty Turco from DAL back then. But he put up mediocre numbers that season (22-20-11 W-L-T and .913 Sv% and 2.72GAA) but I would think those numbers are stable, and so if you replace Toskala/MacDonald with Turco, here's what you'd get.

Turco W% (43.13) x Games Started by Toskala/MacDonald (26+5=31) = +13 wins

And that's with a goalie who averaged LESS THAN a .500 record. Which is really not good.

So if you give that Leafs team +26 points in the standings, you put them at 100 points which is good enough for a playoff berth.

Now, I'm going to assume that the Leafs were a worse team than DAL (although DAL was also very, very bad that year, posting a .470 team W% compared to the Leafs' .366), so let's assume the addition of Turco and removal of Toskala/MacDonald is offset by a ratio equal to team W%. So .470 - .366 = .104, 26 x .104 = 3

So even adjusting for that, the Leafs still grab 23 points, which would put that at 97 points.

So let's go one step further, assume that the Leafs don't make the playoffs even with the subpar (though less-subpar-than-Toskala/MacDonald) goaltending of Turco, it does at least push them into the mid-round draft range. So let's assume 14th OA.

And since MacDonald was included in the Phaneuf trade, I'll swap him out for Gustavsson in order to still complete the Phaneuf trade (where we give up literally nothing for Phaneuf, who no matter how you feel about him, is an actual NHL player).

So 2010 Draft, assuming the Leafs were slotted 14th OA:
2nd round pick (42nd overall* Calgary would climb one spot higher as the Leafs would've passed them) Tyler Toffoli
3rd round pick (74th overall) TRADED with TOR 3rd rd (79 OA) 2010 to COL for 2011 2nd rnd pick

(COL finished the 2009-10 season with the 12 highest record and first playoff berth in a few years, so the organizational sense was that things were going in a positive direction. However things didn't go as planned and they finished 2nd worst in the 2010-11 season, so that 2nd round pick is the 32nd overall selection.)

4th round pick (116 overall) Zach Hyman
5th round pick (144 overall) Brendan Gallagher
5th round pick (146 overall) Mark Stone
7th round pick (194 overall) Andrej Sustr (Not a NA born player but he was playing for Youngstown of the USHL so Burke would've had some familiarity there, and was prone to pick Europeans with his late round picks).

 

[indigobuffalo]

#2, Kessel trade is never made if they know the pick would be #2 overall.

Right, but that was during the summer, so you could in theory make enough changes before the season started to prevent that pick being a No. 2 OA.

Like getting rid of Toskala.

 

[Banic]

Id Damn well ensure Burke goes Jenner over Biggs.

 

[613Leafer]

#2, Kessel trade is never made if they know the pick would be #2 overall.

We had no #1 C, no #1 D, no #1 G, very limited skill up front, etc. It wasnt remotely unrealistic that we'd finish right near the bottom.

 

[deletethis]

I read that twice and I still don't know what you're asking me to choose.

I'd call up Nashville and ask them for the package they offered the Bruins for Kessel to start.

Things are simple. If Burke and his staff had actually drafted well regardless of their biases for certain types of players, the team would actually not be in the toilet like it is now.

There is a lot of assumption of competency to the current regime's team building that has yet to be proven.

 

[Daisy Jane]

Shanaplan.

i'm not even playing this game (and this isn't against you because I like the concept of the game). but Burke's stupid dumb vision on getting all those "truculent, pugnastic, testosterone " players and signings because thinking about it would make me rage, way way way too much and no one should start a monday that way

 

[Mess]

Using a time machine to fix all Burke's mistakes should be used to fix the biggest mistake of all his own hiring and then all this pain and suffering by Leafs Nation could have been prevented.

The only reason they hired Burke was for his experience, because they felt they were struggling because green horn JFJ lacked the knowledge to make the Leafs competitive.

If MLSE knew Burke would be naive and foolish enough to trade for Kessel & it cost them the #2 overall pick (Seguin) the time machine would be used to go back in time and NEVER hire Burke in the 1st place.

JFJ tried to convince MLSE that they needed to draft rebuild the team, so had he not been fired and replaced by Burke then we wouldn't be debating all Burke's mistakes thereafter unfortunately with 20/20 hindsight now.

MLSE should have gone from JFJ to Shanahan and cut out the entire Burke/Nonis era in Leaf history by using the DeLorean to travel back in time. So it should be used to correct their own biggest mistake and then all the rest thereafter could have been prevented. Simply too many ill advised trades, poor UFA signings and weak drafting to be able to fix everything with a magic time machine.

 

[glue]

I read that twice and I still don't know what you're asking me to choose.

I'd call up Nashville and ask them for the package they offered the Bruins for Kessel to start.

Things are simple. If Burke and his staff had actually drafted well regardless of their biases for certain types of players, the team would actually not be in the toilet like it is now.

There is a lot of assumption of competency to the current regime's team building that has yet to be proven.

Fair point, however, the current regime's 'process' appears to be a lot more well thought out and logical. That in itself to me is a win. Makes it easier to believe we're actually going to be good one day and develop a long term organization winning strategy - much like the Wings and Devils.

 

[zeke]

That #2 overall was all on Toskala. We were a top-10 possession team that year. Our offense was middle of the pack before trading everyone away at the deadline.

Even though gustavsson sucked we were still over .500 with him in net.

But Toskala was beyond horrendous. Somehow we still let him play 26 games despite his .874sv%, which is epic stupidity.

 

[ACC1224]

Using a time machine to fix all Burke's mistakes should be used to fix the biggest mistake of all his own hiring and then all this pain and suffering by Leafs Nation could have been prevented.

The only reason they hired Burke was for his experience, because they felt they were struggling because green horn JFJ lacked the knowledge to make the Leafs competitive.

If MLSE knew Burke would be naive and foolish enough to trade for Kessel & it cost them the #2 overall pick (Seguin) the time machine would be used to go back in time and NEVER hire Burke in the 1st place.

JFJ tried to convince MLSE that they needed to draft rebuild the team, so had he not been fired and replaced by Burke then we wouldn't be debating all Burke's mistakes thereafter unfortunately with 20/20 hindsight now.

MLSE should have gone from JFJ to Shanahan and cut out the entire Burke/Nonis era in Leaf history by using the DeLorean to travel back in time. So it should be used to correct their own biggest mistake and then all the rest thereafter could have been prevented. Simply too many ill advised trades, poor UFA signings and weak drafting to be able to fix everything with a magic time machine.

You're forgetting Gramps reign of dysfunction between JFjr and Burke.
If he had never been hired it would have significantly altered the course of the Team.

 

[613Leafer]

That #2 overall was all on Toskala. We were a top-10 possession team that year. Our offense was middle of the pack before trading everyone away at the deadline.

Even though gustavsson sucked we were still over .500 with him in net.

But Toskala was beyond horrendous. Somehow we still let him play 26 games despite his .874sv%, which is epic stupidity.

We finished bottom ten in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015, and likely again in 2016.

Can't really blame 2010 all on Toskala. It wasnt exactly an anomaly where we finished and we had different goalies in different years.

 

[brettzz]

knowing the future is such a big advantage even if you are calling 50% of stuff wrong you will nail some ridiculous draft steals, trade players at the perfect time, sign amazing ufa contracts, its a crazy advantage over even the best gm in the league

maybe you draft seguin and he gets consumed by the toronto culture and busts but meanwhile you've drafted toffoli instead of brad ross, klingberg instead of greg mckegg, gallagher instead of petter granberg, mark stone instead of sam carrick (jesus how bad was that draft)

somehow you need to convince burke you are from the future

 

[indigobuffalo]

Using a time machine to fix all Burke's mistakes should be used to fix the biggest mistake of all his own hiring and then all this pain and suffering by Leafs Nation could have been prevented.

The only reason they hired Burke was for his experience, because they felt they were struggling because green horn JFJ lacked the knowledge to make the Leafs competitive.

If MLSE knew Burke would be naive and foolish enough to trade for Kessel & it cost them the #2 overall pick (Seguin) the time machine would be used to go back in time and NEVER hire Burke in the 1st place.

JFJ tried to convince MLSE that they needed to draft rebuild the team, so had he not been fired and replaced by Burke then we wouldn't be debating all Burke's mistakes thereafter unfortunately with 20/20 hindsight now.

MLSE should have gone from JFJ to Shanahan and cut out the entire Burke/Nonis era in Leaf history by using the DeLorean to travel back in time. So it should be used to correct their own biggest mistake and then all the rest thereafter could have been prevented. Simply too many ill advised trades, poor UFA signings and weak drafting to be able to fix everything with a magic time machine.

Please Mess, take my money and my wallet, just don't hurt me or my family.

Oh wait, you're not a hijacker?

Just play within the parameters of the thread.

It should go without saying that you could make things a lot better not having Burke, but the question is whether you would prefer Shanahan or Burke with better choices.

 

[zeke]

Yeah, horrendous goaltending was the reason for most all of our struggles from 05/06 to 09/10.

And then when we finally got goaltending, Burke sabotaged it by hiring a horrendous coach and giving him a laughable "truculent" pile of crap for the bottom half of his roster.

 

[indigobuffalo]

knowing the future is such a big advantage even if you are calling 50% of stuff wrong you will nail some ridiculous draft steals, trade players at the perfect time, sign amazing ufa contracts, its a crazy advantage over even the best gm in the league

maybe you draft seguin and he gets consumed by the toronto culture and busts but meanwhile you've drafted toffoli instead of brad ross, klingberg instead of greg mckegg, gallagher instead of petter granberg, mark stone instead of sam carrick (jesus how bad was that draft)

somehow you need to convince burke you are from the future

We're assuming he will listen to you but won't make decisions that go against his core philosophies. So while Toffoli would be a great Burkian player, you'd have a hard time selling him on Gallagher (small, but pugnacious/belligerent), and he'd be a tough sell on a Swede like John Klingberg over a pugnacious Greg McKegg.

 

[Anthrax442]

If I can keep the DeLorean after, I take the Burke option

 

[indigobuffalo]

I read that twice and I still don't know what you're asking me to choose.

I'd call up Nashville and ask them for the package they offered the Bruins for Kessel to start.

Things are simple. If Burke and his staff had actually drafted well regardless of their biases for certain types of players, the team would actually not be in the toilet like it is now.

There is a lot of assumption of competency to the current regime's team building that has yet to be proven.

This is very much the crux of the thread. We don't know how the future will play out. No one does. But would you rather have the current situation/direction for the Leafs, or that of the previous regime assuming you fixed some of the major problems that plagued the Burke era Leafs.

 

[Mess]

This is very much the crux of the thread. We don't know how the future will play out. No one does. But would you rather have the current situation/direction for the Leafs, or that of the previous regime assuming you fixed some of the major problems that plagued the Burke era Leafs.

MLSE (Ontario Teachers Pension Plan) selling their rights to Bell/Rogers happened 4 years too late.

The 1st order of business of Bell/Rogers upon taking ownership of MLSE was to show Burke the door before he could inflict any more damage on the organization.

The time machine could have be used to turn back the clock to the sale of the Leafs and move that date earlier and it would have erased the entire Burke era in Toronto.

 

[ULF_55]

Assume you had a time machine, and you could travel back in time to when Burke had just completed the trade for Phil Kessel (September 19, 2009, the next day). You can tell him about the draft results, but he won't change his philosophy on playing style preferences and puck analytics, or possession systems. So the advice he will take will be for the best available "Burkian" players.

You can also make recommendations for FA signings, within reason. The player needs to be Burkian, and you can't sign players that were never going to sign in Toronto, like Parise/Suter, no matter what the pitch was. AND NO BACK-DIVING CONTRACTS!

Another caveat for all this is that for each subsequent year, your knowledge of the future becomes less and less relevant, because as timelines change, information from your present (the future) is no longer correct based on the changes you've created in the space-time continuum. (E.g. Leafs don't sign player X, who signs with another team, takes a roster spot from prospect Y, who doesn't develop properly, and doesn't become the Cody Ceci we know today). Also, as you "improve" the roster, predict how the season would finish and change the Leafs' draft position accordingly. Assume other teams draft the same player or next selection chronologically.

So what I mean about "Burkian" players are testosterone-filled, pugnacious, belligerent, and of course, truculent players. But you can guide him to the best ones of that mould. Keep in mind a very strong distaste for European players and especially Russians. So you can't convince Burke to select Tarasenko no matter how hard you try.

So that's option #1. And it's open to interpretation. So if you choose option one, post a 2015-16 roster (try and include cap numbers so it's somewhat realistic) and explain your choices. Trades are okay but within reason, preferably something that would have been seen as poor value at the time but with your knowledge of the future can be turned into a solid win. But NO MORE THAN two player acquisitions TOTAL via trade.

Option #2 is much easier to explain. It's the status quo. All those bad Burke/Nonis years, the last two under Shanahan, the implementation and gradual roll-out of the Shanaplan, hiring Lamoriello, Hunter, Dubas, the Analytics Wing, Babcock, Legends Row, the new logo, etc. etc.

So which would you choose?

Here are some resources, should you need them:
Links to each NHL Entry Draft: 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016
Links to NHL Transactions (by year): 2009 (*keep in mind everything prior to September 19, 2009 is set in stone), 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016
Leafs Prospects (Hockey's Future from September 25, 2009)
Roster as of September 19, 2009 (your starting point): Sorry, having trouble with this. If anyone else has this info as of September 19, 2009, please post it.

Leafs called up Joey MacDonald sporting a great .893 with the Marlies leaving the 21 year old kid with a .925 in the minors.

Burke kept his buddy coaching.

Really, once Burke threw the team out of the airplane without parachutes all you could do was watch the oncoming disaster.

The other issue was Burke overpaid for Kessel in the first place offersheet compensation would have been less.

1st., 2nd., 3rd. round would have been better than what Burke gave up, but that is outside the bounds of your question.

In ending .... Tom Kurvers, Lanny McDonald, the Big M, ... but we wouldn't be here today would we.

 

[leafs in five]

Yeah, horrendous goaltending was the reason for most all of our struggles from 05/06 to 09/10.

And then when we finally got goaltending, Burke sabotaged it by hiring a horrendous coach and giving him a laughable "truculent" pile of crap for the bottom half of his roster.

then Nonis decided that better goaltending was the team's most pressing need after Reimer put up a .924 sv pct and 4 shutouts in 31 games.

 

[SprDaVE]

Good god was Burke ever a disaster. So many expectations, so much disappointment.

 

[Leafs87]

Someone actually votes Burke ?

 

[Stephen]

Burke was screwed the moment he traded those picks for Kessel. There wasn't any amount of luck, Jedi mind tricks, man from the future or anything at his disposal at that point to have reversed the short/medium term damage of not having Seguin and Hamilton in a rebuild.