Brian Burke says likely no more hockey in 2020

Killer Orcas

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Jul 2, 2011
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The way this is spreading yet I'm thinking the current season is done no playoffs. The start of the 20-21 season is in jeopardy as well unless we see a cure soon. Containing it is one thing but if there's not a cure another wave could wreck havoc. The economy I don't believe can handle another wave without going into a economic depression.
 

wasunder

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Aug 21, 2014
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First of all...first case of infected human in china was caught in november...until late january government lied about possible transfers between poeople and about real number of infected...thats 3 months of doing nothing...USA is following their lead...no restrictions, lessening threat by moronic statements of president etc etc...in april they claim they have it under controll...can you trust them after what they caused? big NO...so if you take 3 month of doing nothing like in China and apply it to USA where it started 1 month ago you have 2 months until hard restrictons come to play and then MAYBE 4 months of hard battle and woalaaa its october and you still arent "out of it"

btw....simple math....USA has around 325 mil. of population...doing 65 000 tests a day...how many days will pass until whole population is tested? second round...how many of already tested will become infected without hard restrictions like compulsory wearing of facemask, quarantine and closed bars etc.?
Hence my point about their reaction in January and February. I agree their early response was quite poor. However their response at the end of January was strong and a large reason why they are recovering right now. 3 months is also being a bit disingenuous, as the first case is likely traced back to November 17, and the Government mandated lock down was January 23, which is a bit over two months. The USA also has the chance to see how effective a heavy handed lock down will be, so hopefully they can apply larger restrictions before 2 months. China took about 2 months to recover after the heavy restrictions, and even Wuhan is recovering quite well, it's not about being "out of it", but getting to a manageable state where you can look into softening measure to open the country back up again.

In regards to testing, of course you won't be testing the whole population...that's not a feasible task. The goal should be to test at risk individuals, people with symptoms, travellers, and those who were at risk of contraction due to close contact. if you are not one of those people, you should be doing your job and attempting to quarantine yourself, avoiding bars and social gatherings.

General point I was trying to make was that China's response to the latter half of their situation was quite successful, and not a model that any country with a high infection rate should look away from.
 
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HeartAttack

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Feb 16, 2018
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Hence my point about their reaction in January and February. I agree their early response was quite poor. However their response at the end of January was strong and a large reason why they are recovering right now. 3 months is also being a bit disingenuous, as the first case is likely traced back to November 17, and the Government mandated lock down was January 23, which is a bit over two months. The USA also has the chance to see how effective a heavy handed lock down will be, so hopefully they can apply larger restrictions before 2 months. China took about 2 months to recover after the heavy restrictions, and even Wuhan is recovering quite well, it's not about being "out of it", but getting to a manageable state where you can look into softening measure to open the country back up again.

In regards to testing, of course you won't be testing the whole population...that's not a feasible task. The goal should be to test at risk individuals, people with symptoms, travellers, and those who were at risk of contraction due to close contact. if you are not one of those people, you should be doing your job and attempting to quarantine yourself, avoiding bars and social gatherings.

General point I was trying to make was that China's response to the latter half of their situation was quite successful, and not a model that any country with a high infection rate should look away from.

ok, i can agree with that...in january chinese took actions which stopped spreading the virus...hard actions but it worked and again BUT after 3 months they have it only under controll, not cured so all they need is one virus carrier without symptoms and the second wave is here again - and we know about patient 31...all i said was USA is following their lead of doing nothing first months (as you said two and something of month when quarantine was forced in china vs currently month of doing nothing in USA) sum it all and you have situation going on during 6 months and still not safe

until vaccine will be made you will have massive testing and tested will be everyone, not just people from marginal groups threatened most or people with symptomps

you can find many graphs on internet where you can look how virus was spreading through europe and you will find more countries which are now more succesfull in holding virus back in acceptable numbers
 

wasunder

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Aug 21, 2014
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ok, i can agree with that...in january chinese took actions which stopped spreading the virus...hard actions but it worked and again BUT after 3 months they have it only under controll, not cured so all they need is one virus carrier without symptoms and the second wave is here again - and we know about patient 31...all i said was USA is following their lead of doing nothing first months (as you said two and something of month when quarantine was forced in china vs currently month of doing nothing in USA) sum it all and you have situation going on during 6 months and still not safe

until vaccine will be made you will have massive testing and tested will be everyone, not just people from marginal groups threatened most or people with symptomps

you can find many graphs on internet where you can look how virus was spreading through europe and you will find more countries which are now more succesfull in holding virus back in acceptable numbers
It's definitely true that there could be a second wave. Restrictions here have actually amplified in the past couple days because of a rise in case numbers, I believe 37 new cases were reported here yesterday(still manageable, but a sign that a second wave could arise).
 

Habs Icing

Formerly Onice
Jan 17, 2004
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I think what makes this novel Sars-cov 2 virus so scary is that it is NOVEL. We know very little about it so we don't have a treatment or a vaccine. The biggest fear is that the health care facilities of all nations will be swamped at one time. These measures put in place are not to stop us from getting infected. We will all get infected if we live to see April 2021. No, these measures are in place to space out the infections so the hospitals are not overloaded. Having 30 million Americans infected over a span of 3 to 4 weeks is not the same as 30 million over 6 to 7 months. Also, the longer they can delay the spike the better chances of finding a treatment or better yet a vaccine.

That's one side of the scale. the other is that the numbers we have so far need to be seen in context. As of this morning, the Worldometer has 883,000 confirmed cases and 45,000 deaths WORLDWIDE. Here's the site if you want to check the numbers:
Coronavirus Update (Live): 882,191 Cases and 44,136 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

Now the context. The CDC claims there as many or more deaths each year in the States alone with the common flu. Examples:
flu season of Oct 2013 to May 2014: CDC estimated 33,000 to 55,000 deaths in the states alone.
flu season of Oct 2014 to May 2015: estimated deaths from 44,000 to 64,000 (again the states only)
flu season of Oct 2017 to May 2018: estimated deaths from 46,000 to 95,000.

And that's with a vaccine and treatment.

Here's the site for those numbers:
Burden of Influenza
 

swiftwin

★SUMMER.OF.PIERRE★
Jul 26, 2005
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Lol, pretty sure he’s referring to more than just retail stores. Try doing a little reading on what effects the Great Depression had on pro sports or just the world in general. People can’t go till 2021 without jobs. The govt can’t pay everyone unemployment for a the rest of the year.

What? The majority of people are still working. Like I said, just because flight attendants, nightclub DJs and GAP workers are currently unemployed doesn't mean everyone is unemployed. Not even close. Almost everyone I know is still working.
 
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Wolf357

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Jul 16, 2011
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What? The majority of people are still working. Like I said, just because flight attendants, nightclub DJs and GAP workers are currently unemployed doesn't mean everyone is unemployed. Not even close. Almost everyone I know is still working.

That is in your worlds Bubble... it other peoples bubble some people know hardly anyone who is still working. It all depends on where you live and the type of people you socialize with.
In my bubble I’m still working but my wife isn’t.. about 50% of people I know work and that’s only because of where I work and the people I know.
It’s like saying it’s not possibly raining where you are...in looking out my window and it’s sunny...
different places have different realities.
 

swiftwin

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Jul 26, 2005
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That is in your worlds Bubble... it other peoples bubble some people know hardly anyone who is still working. It all depends on where you live and the type of people you socialize with.
In my bubble I’m still working but my wife isn’t.. about 50% of people I know work and that’s only because of where I work and the people I know.
It’s like saying it’s not possibly raining where you are...in looking out my window and it’s sunny...
different places have different realities.

It goes both ways. I believe you that a unprecedented amount of people aren't working right now. But the person I was responding to was acting like nobody is working, and that society would crumble if we don't lift everything by the end of the year. The majority (>50%) are still working.
 

swiftwin

★SUMMER.OF.PIERRE★
Jul 26, 2005
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Back to the subject at hand though.

I actually agree with Burke. I can't see us playing hockey again in 2020 unless they did the empty arena thing. Lifting these social distancing is not an on-off switch, it's a series of gradual measures. We saw limits of the size of gatherings go from 250 to 50, to 25, and even down to 5 in some places. It's going to take a looong time until we work our way up to 18,000+ gatherings. Large gathering events like hockey games and concerts are the LAST thing that would get lifted. I can't see that happening until we have a vaccine, or enough people catch this to build a huge herd immunity (unlikely).
 
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Mortimer Snerd

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No. 1916 - Verdun, The Somme. 1347 - The Black Death. 1919 - so called Spanish Flu. Just to name a few.
 

valet

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Jan 26, 2017
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I don't even really care about hockey anymore. Seasons over boys, just time to move on
 

viper0220

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Oct 10, 2008
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I don't think we will hockey or any mega crowds spectacles until the end of 2021. The vaccine is still a year away(if they can even make it) and the situation is just getting worse. They won't have no fans games because the owners will feel like that is not worth it and the government will come down hard on them if something happens.

We are not even in the peak of this crisis and there is already talk of a second wave. We don't know how third world countries will deal with this, in India, the Indian government is saying they have everything under control but it is false. They have so may poor people that are not able to stay home because they don't have homes and live on the streets and there are also other countries in the situation.

The US also does not have this under control and I feel like they won't be able to get this under control for at least 4-6 months.
 

Hockey4Lyfe

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Feb 26, 2018
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What happened in 541 and 1348?

541 was the first incidence of the Bubonic Plague and then 1347 started the second, and more widely known, of the two occurrences.

541’s Plague was said to of killed almost half of Europe’s population at the time. Roughly 25 million. 1347 Black Plague killed 75 - 200 million depending on where you look for information.

But yeah, the initial comment someone made of “2020 being the worst year ever” is asinine. I can’t even begin to imagine the stuff you could easily die from in 541 or 1347. Let alone a worldwide pandemic that no one even had a clue to treat or deal with.
 

TeddyBare

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Jul 28, 2016
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Bettman has his work cut out for him
Figuring out off-season length
figuring out regular season
figuring out playoffs

If the season is cancelled
figuring out conditional picks
figuring out draft lottery (does ottawa get screwed with perccentages)


gotta earn that salary this year.
 

SPLBRUIN

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Mar 21, 2010
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The way this is spreading yet I'm thinking the current season is done no playoffs. The start of the 20-21 season is in jeopardy as well unless we see a cure soon. Containing it is one thing but if there's not a cure another wave could wreck havoc. The economy I don't believe can handle another wave without going into a economic depression.

Makes a lot more sense then to finish this season no matter how long the wait then to risk losing 2 seasons with all of the uncertainty ahead.
 

GeeoffBrown

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Jul 6, 2007
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Sports stars are going to be getting a pay cut across pretty much all leagues for the foreseeable future, because pretty much everyone is; it is a good thing though, as a sports lover, they occupy too much of a lot of peoples' time considering they really do not matter at all in the big scheme of things as evidence by the virus. The world goes on just fine without sports.
The world is not going by just fine right now. It f***ing sucks
 

Got One Cup

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Jun 3, 2008
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What? The majority of people are still working. Like I said, just because flight attendants, nightclub DJs and GAP workers are currently unemployed doesn't mean everyone is unemployed. Not even close. Almost everyone I know is still working.
You do realize 6.6 millions Americans filled for unemployment last week alone? That is a new record. We are officially in a recession with the real possibility of this being worse than the Great Depression. This isn’t just flight attendants, dj’s, and Gap workers. Most of our factories are shut down, Wall Street is freaking out, and people are losing their jobs. I’m not saying society will collapse but we are in for some real hard times. Not just America but the global economy will be hit hard by this.
 
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Mike Jones

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Apr 12, 2007
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I can see the league canceling the rest of this season but we're a long way from writing off the next one too.
 

Got One Cup

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Jun 3, 2008
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Have a feeling this season is done and if were lucky next starts on time or it's shortened as well.
I agree. We haven’t hit the peak of this yet and we may see a 2nd wave.China dealt with this for 4 months or so before lifting the quarantine and seeing if they had anymore cases.
 
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Robsker

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Nov 8, 2014
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Maybe I am wrong here, but people seem to be suggesting that Bettman and the NHL will make the call as to when the NHl starts up again - I would think that they will have to follow whatever the government and the mandates from there are. Sure, we will hear it through the league, but the determination will be made outside of the league. That is, when things start up again will be decided outside of the NHL. Now, of course, what the league looks like once started - in terms of number of games, playoff format, etc. - that will be determined by the NHL leadership.

In any event, this season seems absolutely done. Next season? Too many variables out there still. That said, I would be very surprised if the NHL were going in October - at the very least, I would expect the league to start later than normal... we will see.
 

Robsker

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Nov 8, 2014
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Just a mention that I forgot in my last post - it is also conceivable that the league could get the go-ahead to start at some point only to be interrupted again if yet another wave of the virus hits. So... it is not out of the question to consider that the league could start up and be halted yet again at a later date.
 

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