Speculation: Brian Burke: Cap might be $40 million next season

[hullsy47]

I don't know about $40m, but I can't see the owners agree to start a new season with an $80m cap in a climate where future revenues are so uncertain. They may have to play the entire 20-21 season in front of no fans.

We're in for a ton of back-and-forth between the NHL and NHLPA.

The players are taking a cut or making up the difference In escrow
This is a pandemic everyone lost money
Some players may lose 50 %
It's real

 

[keonsbitterness]

At that point, it's a very simple equation for the players. If they want to play, they have to agree to a salary rollback based on a new salary cap as per the previously determined percentage of league revenues. Take it or leave it.

If their salaries are cut in half for a couple of years, I certainly wouldn't shed any tears for them, all things considered.

Few would shed any tears, but we're talking about the league and the PA adjusting to a new normal. They had trouble agreeing on new collective agreements during decades of relative stability in the pre-Coronavirus universe.

But you're right -- it may come down to take it or leave it for the players.

 

[ULF_55]

Do they get to take 50% off the coaches salaries at the same time?

Babcock's worthlessness would be better.

 

[keonsbitterness]

Do they get to take 50% off the coaches salaries at the same time?

Babcock's worthlessness would be better.

Current ones: maybe. Fired ones: no chance!

 

[Gabriel426]

Rich teams did. That era also resulted in a ton of Bobby Holik contracts, which in this era would result in a vast inflation of player contracts.

The NHL salary cap saved GMs from themselves.

I think the Leafs, Habs, Rangers and the Hawks were big market teams with deep pockets yet, beside the two Cups in the Early 90s, they have not won any Cups or even make it to the Cup Finals between 1990-2005. Teams that did it time after time again-ie: contenders years after years were Avs, Devils, Wings, then the Stars, Ducks and TB won.
Point I am trying to make is that teams that won during the 90s and in the Cap era were all built through the draft and development instead of outbidding teams for UFAs year after year. Just don’t see why it can be like that now.

 

[Menzinger]

How can there not be a major salary cap rollback if there is no end to this season? ..

The playoffs alone might make up 1/4 of the NHL season revenue of HRR for that season.

The cap doesnt have to be directly tied to revenue as long as both sides agree. Why lots of journalists have been speculating that theyd likely just keep the cap the same for next season to avoid complications

 

[Menzinger]

In the past Billionare owners didn't need too much to cry poor, sell a team, sell off players, etc. No ticket sales, no tv viewers (no live games to watch), no consessions, etc. what did you think might happen? Business as usual? Not every team in the NHL has the financial might of the Toronto Maple Leafs. What did people expect would happen? A lot of things have changed now, and many more things to come (I'm afraid).

People think that Burke is just trying to shock or bring attention to himself? Come on!

Burke has a long documented history of making outlandish public statements - even while he was employed as a GM.

The longer term financial impact of the pandemic on the NHL is undetermined right now (though obviously theyre taking some sort of hit), but at the moment theres nothing suggesting its a realistic possibility of the leagues cap being cut by more than 50% as soon as next season......

 

[Leafs1991]

This is maybe why NHL may take a pass on this season then. I was not sure if they could cover costs with US and Canada TV deals alone to finish season. But I can't see da owners throwing more losses at it just to declare a Cup winner. With da NBA da gate is a minor factor it is almost all about da $2.5B national TV contract. and even though LeBron may not want to play da owners are not paying back da huge sum of $$$. That alone creates da loss.

Why can't you just type "the"??

 

[Al14]

Why can't you just type "the"??

Why can't Coachcorner type proper English?

Maybe JT AM has a little French in him.

 

[saltming]

How simple does can they make it?

Static cap I can see but cutting it by over 50%?

 

[belair]

I think the Leafs, Habs, Rangers and the Hawks were big market teams with deep pockets yet, beside the two Cups in the Early 90s, they have not won any Cups or even make it to the Cup Finals between 1990-2005. Teams that did it time after time again-ie: contenders years after years were Avs, Devils, Wings, then the Stars, Ducks and TB won.
Point I am trying to make is that teams that won during the 90s and in the Cap era were all built through the draft and development instead of outbidding teams for UFAs year after year. Just don’t see why it can be like that now.

It is.

Teams that draft and develop poorly still suffer. They also routinely pay depth guys far more than they're worth.

 

[Fogelhund]

NHL Revenue in 2018/19 - 5.08 Billion Salary Cap $81.5 Billion
Expected Salary Cap for 2020/21 was between 84 to 88.2 Billion, according to Daly... used the average, about $86 Billion, to extrapolate out, expected rise in Revenues. About 5.5%

So... expected revenues rise was about 5.5% is about 5.36 Billion in revenues, that the league was on pace to make, before the virus.

Approx 1399 games in the season, 1312 in Regular season, and on average 5.82 games per playoff series, with 15 series.... 87 games... 1312+ 87 = 1399

195 games weren't played, plus 87 playoff games... .. so 20% of the season was lost... so you should surmise, that only 20% of revenues lost...

But, you could argue the playoffs are worth more, and I"m not sure how much more, but let's just go with double value of regular season game....

So, 1312 regular season + 87 games times two... is. 1486 games. 195 RS games + 87 x 2 then divided by 1486 games value... and it's 24%...

There is no way that 50% of league revenue are gone for the season, so there is no probability that the players would agree to a 50% cut.... The lost revenues are somewhere in the 20-24% in all probability.
But, keep in mind the revenue was already going up... so if we go back to the expected revenue of 5.36 Billion, and substract either 20 or 24% from it... you come up with $4.288 Billion and $4.07 Billion,,

So that's a drop of 15.6% to 19.9% from last years revenues. Where Burke would come up with 50% is of pure fantasy.

What the league, and NHLPA decides to do, is to be determined, but it's probably prudent to keep the cap as is, with a much higher escrow.

 

[Gabriel426]

Personally, I wish the 50mil Burke suggested would become a reality bc if that is the case, there won’t be a cap bc there is not one team that could possibly fill their current roster at 50mil, on the NHLPA, what are you going to tell the UFAs and RFAs, sign for the min. for a year and hope for the best next season.

Maybe I am being a Leafs homer but I think Leafs will be coming out ahead after this esp since Bettman and other GMs know they need the CAD revenues.

 

[Gabriel426]

It is.

Teams that draft and develop poorly still suffer. The also routinely pay depth guys far more than they're worth.

No question about it, I think the current cap is hurting teams that draft and develop well more than teams trying to use money to buy players or to get out of trouble.

 

[egd27]

I get how you thinks it's cool or something to replace the word "the" with the word "da" but this post was almost unreadable because of it. It's very distracting and slows down everyone's reading. It's similar to people who refuse to use the word "than". It disrupts people who want to read quickly. The content of your posts is fine but people are just going to start blocking you if it continues.

Seconded......it really is quite annoying

 

[Pookie]

He’s correct in that the cap calculation will be drastically lower.

If anyone takes that to mean the actual cap will be drastically lower... they need a helmet.

 

[Leafs1991]

Why can't Coachcorner type proper English?

Maybe JT AM has a little French in him.

No idea who that is. All I'm wondering is why can't we get proper English?

When he's using "da", it doesn't make him look cooler, just dumber and it makes no sense why he types it that way. It just makes him look foolish, or immature, or even uneducated.

(I know he's not uneducated, but when you type a certain way, it comes off that way)

Maybe this quarantine is getting to me, and I apologize for calling you out but I think I really just want to know why you do it lol

 

[93LEAFS]

A drop like that will cause a complete renegotiation of the CBA. Mainly, because no team could realistically be cap compliant, it burns all UFA's, and players would have to pay a fortune in escrow. The NHLPA knows if they don't be proactive and work with the league on a solution, that teams will contract, and members will lose jobs.

 

[Sniper99]

Why can't Coachcorner type proper English?

Maybe JT AM has a little French in him.

Lets not even start with him. calling everyone sire and having no idea what sire means. or calling the other teams players "suckas"

 

[BrannigansLaw]

Sweet.

We can ice a one line team

 

[82Ninety42011]

Will the cap be lower next year of course. Will it be half of this year hell no. However headlines sell not the truth and Burke loves headlines.

 

[ottomaddox]

NHL Revenue in 2018/19 - 5.08 Billion Salary Cap $81.5 Billion
Expected Salary Cap for 2020/21 was between 84 to 88.2 Billion, according to Daly... used the average, about $86 Billion, to extrapolate out, expected rise in Revenues. About 5.5%

So... expected revenues rise was about 5.5% is about 5.36 Billion in revenues, that the league was on pace to make, before the virus.

Approx 1399 games in the season, 1312 in Regular season, and on average 5.82 games per playoff series, with 15 series.... 87 games... 1312+ 87 = 1399

195 games weren't played, plus 87 playoff games... .. so 20% of the season was lost... so you should surmise, that only 20% of revenues lost...

But, you could argue the playoffs are worth more, and I"m not sure how much more, but let's just go with double value of regular season game....

So, 1312 regular season + 87 games times two... is. 1486 games. 195 RS games + 87 x 2 then divided by 1486 games value... and it's 24%...

There is no way that 50% of league revenue are gone for the season, so there is no probability that the players would agree to a 50% cut.... The lost revenues are somewhere in the 20-24% in all probability.
But, keep in mind the revenue was already going up... so if we go back to the expected revenue of 5.36 Billion, and substract either 20 or 24% from it... you come up with $4.288 Billion and $4.07 Billion,,

So that's a drop of 15.6% to 19.9% from last years revenues. Where Burke would come up with 50% is of pure fantasy.

What the league, and NHLPA decides to do, is to be determined, but it's probably prudent to keep the cap as is, with a much higher escrow.

All your figures seem competent, but that's not how billionaire owners operate. They also use projections, not just a simple loss of revenue for 3-4 months of the season. I'll say it again though. It doesn't take much for these owners to cry poor and start cutting the fat.

Just look at OTT,AZ, FLA. They do a heck of a lot of budgeting and frugal business. That was long before this Pandemic.

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

Technically I guess it SHOULD, but there is no chance in hell it will/can. Yes I believe itll be a little lower than this season but not by much

 

[Commander Clueless]

Well that would certainly be interesting.

It terms of straight HRR-based cap, it makes some sense. In terms of practicality and where the NHLPA is concerned, how would you even do that? The number of compliance buyouts and the chaos that would ensue....

Sounds fun. Let's do it!

 

[Stephen]

A drop like that will cause a complete renegotiation of the CBA. Mainly, because no team could realistically be cap compliant, it burns all UFA's, and players would have to pay a fortune in escrow. The NHLPA knows if they don't be proactive and work with the league on a solution, that teams will contract, and members will lose jobs.

Agreed.

If someone tabs up what the total existing contracts are in the NHL and what the cap hit is for next season and distributes that over 31 teams, you'll get an idea of how impossible a $50 million cap hit is considering all the NHLPA members on the sidelines with no job.

A soft cap situation, roll back of some sort, adjustment, and minimize buyouts is the only way to go.