Speculation: Brian Burke: Cap might be $40 million next season

[Mickey Marner]

I don't think he's wrong. Next season, the cap could realistically be set at 40M and escrow might be near 0%. The league/players have decided to do a 81.5M cap and just take a massive escrow loss. Which is fine, but eventually, if revenues don't recover, I think long term, he might be right that they're going to have to drop the cap because it makes no sense to have a 80M cap and only pay players 50% of their contract they sign.

I'm hoping for a salary rollback as it would suit the Leafs much better than a flat cap, but I don't think it'll happen. Realistically, a balance of increased escrow and a rollback would probably be best, but the players will only want to lose out of one end or the other.

 

[IranCondraAffair]

I'm hoping for a salary rollback as it would suit the Leafs much better than a flat cap, but I don't think it'll happen. Realistically, a balance of increased escrow and a rollback would probably be best, but the players will only want to lose out of one end or the other.

A rollback (even a small one) hurts contracted players whereas Free Agents are relatively unaffected (and might even benefit). A cap decrease is the opposite, contracted players are unaffected whereas Free Agents are screwed. Flat cap (with high escrow) seems to be pretty fair for the short term (but isn't a long term solution) I think you're right that both will need to happen to avoid a civil war among players.

Same thing applies to teams. We can't do a cap decrease or big budget (contending) teams mutiny, equally we can't keep the cap artificially inflated either or small market (or non-contending) teams will push their agenda.

 

[Mickey Marner]

A rollback (even a small one) hurts contracted players whereas Free Agents are relatively unaffected (and might even benefit). A cap decrease is the opposite, contracted players are unaffected whereas Free Agents are screwed. Flat cap (with high escrow) seems to be pretty fair for the short term (but isn't a long term solution) I think you're right that both will need to happen to avoid a civil war among players.

Same thing applies to teams. We can't do a cap decrease or big budget (contending) teams mutiny, equally we can't keep the cap artificially inflated either or small market (or non-contending) teams will push their agenda.

No one needs to get screwed. You could set the cap ceiling at the 84 million it was projected to be at for July 1st, then roll the cap back on Sept 15th and preset the 2021-22 season cap at 3% growth. Escrow can balance the rest. If you can't come to contract terms by Sept 15th, tough shit, you had 2.5 months.

Edit. Dates are proxies, the actual start of free agency may differ.

 

[Anthrax442]

If the cup falls by this much, the player's salaries will roll back too.