Value of: Brett Pesce

[Nithoniniel]

Pesce > Larsson
Hall > Nylander

Just sayin'

Absolutely. Pesce is an interesting case for me. Loved him from his first game, but then I spent quite a bit of time on this exact topic and it probably got to me, because I started to cool on him. My position was that while he's great, he's not so good I'd want to part with Willy for him. Arguing for that position probably made me question too much on the negatives and question marks I had.

That has started to swing back lately. Took another deep dive into analytics over the summer and rekindled the love for him, especially after having a discussion with someone with access to some very interesting micro stats about his defensive game. The guy is a legit, defensively-inclined top pairing d-man.

The Hall comparison for Willy is interesting. Not necessarily because they are similar talents, Hall is definitely a step up. But just like with Hall, there's been some disappointment with Willy's production and a lot of question marks about his game, while some voices in the analytics community screams that he's something very special. Symptom of that would be Berkshire's comprehensive analytical comparisons, where Willy would have pushed towards the top #5 for his position if it weren't for his sejour on a last-placed Leafs team lacking almost any talent.

Marner is in no man’s land where Slavin and Aho are worth considerably more but pieces like Pesce wouldn’t be enough. Hamilton might have similar value, but I’d keep Marner if I were the Leafs.

You really think Aho is worth considerably more? Is it position-based? I would peg them as fairly even otherwise.

 

[bluedevil58]

Absolutely. Pesce is an interesting case for me. Loved him from his first game, but then I spent quite a bit of time on this exact topic and it probably got to me, because I started to cool on him. My position was that while he's great, he's not so good I'd want to part with Willy for him. Arguing for that position probably made me question too much on the negatives and question marks I had.

That has started to swing back lately. Took another deep dive into analytics over the summer and rekindled the love for him, especially after having a discussion with someone with access to some very interesting micro stats about his defensive game. The guy is a legit, defensively-inclined top pairing d-man.

The Hall comparison for Willy is interesting. Not necessarily because they are similar talents, Hall is definitely a step up. But just like with Hall, there's been some disappointment with Willy's production and a lot of question marks about his game, while some voices in the analytics community screams that he's something very special. Symptom of that would be Berkshire's comprehensive analytical comparisons, where Willy would have pushed towards the top #5 for his position if it weren't for his sejour on a last-placed Leafs team lacking almost any talent.


You really think Aho is worth considerably more? Is it position-based? I would peg them as fairly even otherwise.

Aho is better than Nylander. Scored more points last season on a worse team. Meanwhile William isn't even playing in the NHL. Just saying.

 

[BB88]

I’m still down with moving Pesce for Nylander. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t want to lose Pesce, but Nylander can help take the offense to another level.

The problem just becomes if he ends up on the wing in Carolina it pushes a guy like TT out, and then what was the point of trading Pesce?

 

[Nithoniniel]

Aho is better than Nylander. Scored more points last season on a worse team. Meanwhile William isn't even playing in the NHL. Just saying.

The comparison was to Marner.

 

[bluedevil58]

The comparison was to Marner.

Oh my bad. That's a harder one. I don't think we will know the true answer for another 2 to 3 years.

 

[GoldiFox]

You really think Aho is worth considerably more? Is it position-based? I would peg them as fairly even otherwise.

From a scoring impact standpoint they are even. Can't get much better than Aho or Marner. Positionally, Centers are at a premium for the Canes. Would be the case for most non-Toronto teams.

 

[Nithoniniel]

From a scoring impact standpoint they are even. Can't get much better than Aho or Marner. Positionally, Centers are at a premium for the Canes. Would be the case for most non-Toronto teams.

Agreed. Just wanted to be sure I knew what your position was.

 

[emptyNedder]

That has started to swing back lately. Took another deep dive into analytics over the summer and rekindled the love for him, especially after having a discussion with someone with access to some very interesting micro stats about his defensive game. The guy is a legit, defensively-inclined top pairing d-man.

Glad someone is actually looking at what Pesce does on the ice and not just "wow he made a play and skates beautifully." Everyone here agrees that Slavin is a top pairing D-man. Well, defensively this season Pesce is considerably better.
Slavin--shots against
Pesce--shots against
(Apparently this data is only available to HockeyViz subscribers--my apologies if you are not one)


Admittedly it is only four games. But while Pesce doesn't have the reputation of Slavin and Hamilton, when he has been on the ice the effect has been that the other team doesn't get shots from high danger positions. It isn't level of competition as that is pretty close.

As I said earlier in this thread--Slavin is a great all-around defenseman, Hamilton is one of the best scoring D-men. However, the truth is that Pesce is close to both and quickly pulling even.

So to the original question: Pesce's value is only microscopically less than the "top pairing" d-men on the Canes. Folks arguing otherwise are not looking at Pesce's every shift impact--probably going off highlights.

 

[Jerkob Slavin]

Tied for 87th in the league for TOI for defenceman

And that is a good thing. It is a luxury to be able to give 6 defenseman close to 20:00/game of ice time and to be confident in every pairing that goes over the boards.

....and we are winning. It feels good man.

 

[glucker]

Carolina absolutely does not add. It’s equal or leafs add. This is a top pair righty D vs. a butter soft, gutless winger. Cmon, man.

It’s elite top-line winger vs top-4 dman.

Come on, man.

 

[Critical13]

It’s elite top-line winger vs top-4 dman.

Come on, man.

Nothing against Pesce, but I can't imagine dealing Nylander for a defenceman with a 25 point ceiling.

As fantastic as he is defensively, I expect more offence from a top pairing defenceman. If he's not top pairing, then what's the point?

 

[glucker]

Marner is in no man’s land where Slavin and Aho are worth considerably more (positionally) but pieces like Pesce wouldn’t be enough. Hamilton might have similar value, but I’d keep Marner if I were the Leafs.

I wouldn’t consider a Marner for Slavin or Aho trade without at least a 1st coming to the Leafs.

 

[glucker]

It has Larsson - Hall written all over it.

Nothing against Pesce, but I can't imagine dealing Nylander for a defenceman with a 25 point ceiling.

It’s ridiculous.

Pesce is without a doubt a good dman, and has the potential to become a top pairing shutdown guy.

Nylander is a possession champ. Best Leaf by a country mile for controlled exits/entries. Already a top-line winger, with the potential to be an excellent #1C... which is what he was being groomed for before Matthews got drafted.

Nylander is also younger.

 

[Canes]

Leafs should keep Nylander then, and try to get their top 4 d-man for spare parts elsewhere.

 

[Critical13]

Leafs should keep Nylander then, and try to get their top 4 d-man for spare parts elsewhere.

1st round picks, prospects like Sandin and Liljegren...these aren't spare parts.

 

[The Assclown]

I would entertain a Pesce for Nylander trade, with additions as needed on either side. This is the kind of move that would solidify our top pairing and improve our team more so than adding Willy back.

 

[Jerkob Slavin]

1st round picks, prospects like Sandin and Liljegren...these aren't spare parts.

Maybe not to other teams, but for the Canes they would be.

 

[GoldiFox]

Nothing against Pesce, but I can't imagine dealing Nylander for a defenceman with a 25 point ceiling.

As fantastic as he is defensively, I expect more offence from a top pairing defenceman. If he's not top pairing, then what's the point?

Since you must watch him regularly to have such a good read on what his limatation are, please explain to all of us why Pesce is capped at 25 points. Please be detailed. What are his offensive deficiencies? Even one real-world example of one play that you recently watched would be great.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Glad someone is actually looking at what Pesce does on the ice and not just "wow he made a play and skates beautifully." Everyone here agrees that Slavin is a top pairing D-man. Well, defensively this season Pesce is considerably better.
Slavin--shots against
Pesce--shots against
(Apparently this data is only available to HockeyViz subscribers--my apologies if you are not one)


Admittedly it is only four games. But while Pesce doesn't have the reputation of Slavin and Hamilton, when he has been on the ice the effect has been that the other team doesn't get shots from high danger positions. It isn't level of competition as that is pretty close.

As I said earlier in this thread--Slavin is a great all-around defenseman, Hamilton is one of the best scoring D-men. However, the truth is that Pesce is close to both and quickly pulling even.

So to the original question: Pesce's value is only microscopically less than the "top pairing" d-men on the Canes. Folks arguing otherwise are not looking at Pesce's every shift impact--probably going off highlights.

Another thing worth mentioning is that one of the arguments against him so far has been the issue of attribution. When two players play as much together as he and Slavin has, it can be difficult to know just how to attribute their impact as a pairing. A strong season from Pesce now would eliminate the worry about the extent to which he benefits from the play of Slavin.

As fantastic as he is defensively, I expect more offence from a top pairing defenceman. If he's not top pairing, then what's the point?

Points are a treacherous stat to judge a d-man on though, especially one that is defensively inclined. Unless you are a great offensive talent, you are likely not going to even get the opportunity to produce. There's most often just two spots on the PP. Most d-men don't have the creative freedom to convert possession into chances in the offensive zone.

Pesce could be defined as someone who can play on a top pairing and significantly drive results towards winning hockey, mainly through his defensive ability but also through a strong transition game. If that's not a top pairing d-man, then what is?

 

[seanlinden]

Points are a treacherous stat to judge a d-man on though, especially one that is defensively inclined. Unless you are a great offensive talent, you are likely not going to even get the opportunity to produce. There's most often just two spots on the PP. Most d-men don't have the creative freedom to convert possession into chances in the offensive zone.

Pesce could be defined as someone who can play on a top pairing and significantly drive results towards winning hockey, mainly through his defensive ability but also through a strong transition game. If that's not a top pairing d-man, then what is?

QFT.

Defensive points do traditionally come from the powerplay anyways.

Heck, take a look at the Leafs last year. They had 2 50+ point defencemen in Rielly & Gardiner -- both players that would unanimously be considered excellent offensive defencemen.

Gardiner had 37 even strength points, Rielly 27. Pesce, last year, on a team with nowhere near the firepower that the Leafs had/have, that scored 83% of the goals that Toronto scored, had 19, all at even strength.

If the Leafs had Pesce, paired him with Rielly on the top pair, and he was a defensive stalwart that gave Rielly some more freedom, racking up a point every 3-4 games with basically 0 powerplay time, the Leafs would have done extremely well on a Nylander trade.

Yeah, he's probably capped at around 25 points as long as he's not on the powerplay -- but there's absolutely nothing wrong with that. No, he's not Jake Gardiner or Morgan Rielly... but he'd be paid less than both, and putting up points is not what he's there to do.

There were only 35 defenceman last year that put up more than 25 points at even strength...and it's a lot of guys that would primarily be considered offensive defencemen.

 

[bluedevil58]

It’s elite top-line winger vs top-4 dman.

Come on, man.

News flash. Nylander isn't an elite top line winger.

 

[LucicAndChong]

News flash. Nylander isn't an elite top line winger.

uhm scuse me what

 

[Cardiac Jerks]

I wouldn’t consider a Marner for Slavin or Aho trade without at least a 1st coming to the Leafs.

Yikes.

That is all.

 

[Critical13]

Another thing worth mentioning is that one of the arguments against him so far has been the issue of attribution. When two players play as much together as he and Slavin has, it can be difficult to know just how to attribute their impact as a pairing. A strong season from Pesce now would eliminate the worry about the extent to which he benefits from the play of Slavin.


Points are a treacherous stat to judge a d-man on though, especially one that is defensively inclined. Unless you are a great offensive talent, you are likely not going to even get the opportunity to produce. There's most often just two spots on the PP. Most d-men don't have the creative freedom to convert possession into chances in the offensive zone.

Pesce could be defined as someone who can play on a top pairing and significantly drive results towards winning hockey, mainly through his defensive ability but also through a strong transition game. If that's not a top pairing d-man, then what is?

I just personally am not overly interested in dealing a high ceiling offensive player for a defensive defenceman with little offensive upside. Not claiming anything more than my subjective opinion. I would love Pesce, but I think it's a mistake to make the investment Canes fans on here are asking for - Nylander+, for a player that isn't a threat offensively. In my perfect world, the guys playing 25-30 mins a night are a threat at both ends.

 

[LucicAndChong]

Yikes.

That is all.

I mean Aho - Marner, yeah not sure the value is even but defiantly not a 1st off, but Slavin isnt thaaaaat good. Maybe not a 1st but a low 2nd/high 3rd I would think