NYR Viper
Registered User
The guy has been VERY good in his short time here so far. He skates well, moves the puck well, is physical in his own end and has very good gap control. Would be silly not t- re-sign him
Player Discussion Brendan Smith
- Thread starter TheGuarantee
- Start date
- Status
Agreed, but for the right price. I do still see him as a solid third pairing guy who at times can be a # 4 type. Should be paid as such.
Well...Is this a Brendan Smith discussion or a joke thread at this point?
Me thinks it's the latter
Thirty One
Safe is safe.
- Dec 28, 2003
- 28,981
- 24,354
GordonGecko
First Ping Pong Ball
I trust Gorton in terms of contract negotiations. If Slats were still in charge, however, I'd be expecting 6 years at 5.5/per with a full NTC
Pavel Buchnevich
Drury and Laviolette Must Go
I really don't see what's so good about Smith. I could guess he has a good corsi ranking, so maybe thats why he gets so much credit, but I don't think he's anymore than a serviceable bottom four defenseman.
He's not a very smart player, makes some terrible decisions with the puck and away from it, and he takes a lot of penalties. I can kind of see what Detroit fans say that he has all the tools, but not the toolbox. He skates well, he has good puck moving skills when he's not making dumb passing decisions, along with decent size, pretty physical, usually okay defensively and a good shot, but it doesn't all come together. His skills play down because of his lack of hockey IQ.
I just don't see the need to bring him back. Someone will overpay. I didn't even see the need to bring him here for a 2nd and a 3rd. Is he better than Klein as the 6th D? Probably. Enough that its worth a 2 and 3? Absolutely not. I think Gorton just made a move to make one, and didn't actually consider that his team barely improves, if at all, by adding Smith. This team needed another body at the position for a very cheap price or an actual difference maker, not someone who's barely an improvement on the defenseman we had and someone who costs a lot.
He's not a very smart player, makes some terrible decisions with the puck and away from it, and he takes a lot of penalties. I can kind of see what Detroit fans say that he has all the tools, but not the toolbox. He skates well, he has good puck moving skills when he's not making dumb passing decisions, along with decent size, pretty physical, usually okay defensively and a good shot, but it doesn't all come together. His skills play down because of his lack of hockey IQ.
I just don't see the need to bring him back. Someone will overpay. I didn't even see the need to bring him here for a 2nd and a 3rd. Is he better than Klein as the 6th D? Probably. Enough that its worth a 2 and 3? Absolutely not. I think Gorton just made a move to make one, and didn't actually consider that his team barely improves, if at all, by adding Smith. This team needed another body at the position for a very cheap price or an actual difference maker, not someone who's barely an improvement on the defenseman we had and someone who costs a lot.
I don't know why it's not a big deal that a defenseman is on for more shots on goal than against.
Pavel Buchnevich
Drury and Laviolette Must Go
So thats worth a 2 and 3 for half a season of that player who despite doing well in corsi stats is a bottom four defenseman?
Irishguy42
Mr. Preachy
I think the team improved with the addition of Smith, but the short-term effects are probably not as visible as the long-term effects with him, and that's why I think we should try to re-sign him. Within a reasonable price, of course.
I also think we are, once again, overrating the value of picks. We're all guilty of that. 2+3 was not that bad of a price.
I also think we are, once again, overrating the value of picks. We're all guilty of that. 2+3 was not that bad of a price.
The guy is at worst a good depth defenseman, not every defenseman is going to be a superstar. A 2 and 3 is not some king's ransom. It's a good price for him.
Pavel Buchnevich
Drury and Laviolette Must Go
I don't think we are.
Here's a study from St. Lawrence University: http://myslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/sports/Schuckers_NHL_Draft.pdf
If you combine the worth of a 2 and 3, you get an average of 374 NHL games. Smith will play way less on the contract we traded for. Unless there's some handshake agreement we don't know about, any hypothetical signing that happens in the offseason or was agreed to after the trade doesn't change the value for the trade being poor under absolutely any condition, besides Smith playing like one of the best defenseman in the NHL for the rest of the season and playoffs.
That doesn't take into account the caliber of games played. 30 games of McDavid is probably as valuable as 374 from a 6D, but Smith is no better than the average NHL regular, so you are completely overpaying, if you take value and caliber of play into account.
Even with a big extension, he probably won't reach that many games played for us. Smith is under no condition worth a 2 and 3. The thing is, rentals are always so overrated. They almost never live up to the value you gave up. Even if they contribute to winning a Stanley Cup, that doesn't mean you will get fair value for what you paid. Someone like Smith as a rental should be worth like a 7th in a few years, if you take into account the amount of games you are paying for, and his caliber of play. Even that might be generous. With an extension, maybe he's worth like a 4th and 5th.
I don't think many will care if he helps us win a Stanley Cup and the draft picks can be replenished other ways, but if we are to discuss the actual value in the trade, we are almost certainly losing this trade from a pure value standpoint. I think there's very little chance we won't. I'm not against every rental, but Smith and Eric Staal are examples of terrible rental deals. If we are paying a 2 and 3 for half a season, I'd expect to get back one of the best players in the NHL. Just because thats not market value doesn't mean its not proper value because it is shown statistically, and the market has totally been diluted by bad decisions.
That's a silly way of going about it, you can just get 10 guys taken in the final round and get a high number.
Pavel Buchnevich
Drury and Laviolette Must Go
Or you could get Henrik Lundqvist's career. Draft picks are not nothing. Columbus threw in a 3rd round pick in the Rick Nash trade, and while most of the big names in the trade at the time might've eventually mostly washed out, the trade is totally tilted in our favor because the pick they threw in turned into Buchnevich. Especially for a team like us that drafts well, we should not be throwing away draft picks.
I'm also not totally against overpaying. If its the right situation, you overpay. I'd have given up a 2 and 3 for a rental Shattenkirk, even though the value is poor. The potential benefits added outweigh the potential negatives, as there is a big gain from improving your team to that level and a small loss for losing a mid round draft pick. However, there is no big gain from adding Smith as a rental. He is a very marginal improvement on someone like Klein, if he's even that, and it is highly unlikely the difference between those two players or the difference between bumping each defenseman back one spot is the difference in any playoff series. So while it might be easy for fans to say that in the grand scheme of things losing a few draft picks in a bad value trade will not make a big difference over the long term for an NHL team, it still doesn't mean that you just randomly venture into a very bad market. Gorton has made a habit of this, and while each individual decision might not make a difference on its face, I think the accumulation of these bad decisions eventually will add up to being one good player that you would've otherwise picked in the draft short of winning a playoff series. Its possible we subsidize that by adding another Hayes, but there is no guarantee that the Rangers constant ventures into bad markets will have us eventually bailed out.
Machinehead
GoAwayTrouba
Machinehead
GoAwayTrouba
Also, Smith "makes dumb decisions" but Ryan McDonagh who is one of the dumbest players in the league is still elite?
Having your cake and eating it too.
Having your cake and eating it too.
Pavel Buchnevich
Drury and Laviolette Must Go
Thats small ball compared to the point I was making. Smith is not a defenseman worth overpaying for. And I know he gets the benefit of the doubt from some people because of his advanced stats, but it doesn't really change the big picture that he's a bottom pairing defenseman on a good team. Some probably think he's a 4, others think he's a 5. Still, I don't really understand why this team needs to be adding that type of player for a 2nd and 3rd round pick, and I think thats something everyone should be agreeing on, when you consider the value we are getting compared to what we paid for.
Also, Smith is infinitely times dumber than McDonagh. There's a reason one of them is a #1D, and the other was getting scratched for a team with a terrible defense this season. McDonagh has some goofy plays, but Smith is a dumb hockey player. Its why he has not turned into the player people thought he would. McDonagh's not even that more talented of a defenseman, he's put everything together though, and Smith hasn't.
Machinehead
GoAwayTrouba
He's still not the sharpest tool in the shed even though he's getting by.
But he's certainly not McDonagh-level moronic either. McDonagh has long stretches where it looks like he's never seen a hockey game before and doesn't know the rules.
We have to have the dumbest defense in the league.
Machinehead
GoAwayTrouba
He's a number 4 or 5 despite every piece of evidence saying the contrary, because that's what you've decided. Par for the course.
Machinehead
GoAwayTrouba
Because he's right back on the "Girardi hasn't been around for weeks and McDonagh still sucks" train.
When are we going to stop excusing it?
Pavel Buchnevich
Drury and Laviolette Must Go
So then by your logic Clendening's the team's best player and Hayes is the worst with Miller being the third worst despite leading us in points? I could see why you think Smith's advanced stats help his case, but if you are going to tell me this guy is a top pairing defenseman or a really good second pairing defenseman purely because of his advanced stats, I'm not sure this discussion should continue much longer.
With this market where any above average player fetches a 1st round pick, if he was really so good, he would've easily fetched a first if NHL GM's thought he was that good. Like I said, there's a reason why he was getting scratched for Detroit. Doesn't mean he's bad, but you gotta add some context to those stats.
Machinehead
GoAwayTrouba
The discussion shouldn't continue much longer because you're already wrong and have the wrong idea in your head, and I'm not changing that because you're smarter than the rest of us.
And I'm sure you've seen Smith play a ton of times, right, Mr. Bowman?
If I died, and my corpse farted, that fart is how much I care about what NHL GM's think.
Pavel Buchnevich
Drury and Laviolette Must Go
The discussion shouldn't continue much longer because you're already wrong and have the wrong idea in your head, and I'm not changing that because you're smarter than the rest of us.
And I'm sure you've seen Smith play a ton of times, right, Mr. Bowman?
If I died, and my corpse farted, that fart is how much I care about what NHL GM's think.
So instead of acting like an *******, let me hear your opinion on what Smith is and what was his value?
Machinehead
GoAwayTrouba
He skates at an extremely high level, something half our defense can't do at an NHL level.
He makes exit passes at an extremely high level, again something half our defense can't do at an NHL level.
His gap control is excellent.
His ability to deny entries and step up at his own blueline is elite. But that will disappear once AV teaches him that defending in the neutral zone isn't allowed on this team. (By the way, Girardi is STILL backing up on that Dallas goal in January)
He's very good at clearing the crease and is the nastiest defenseman we've had since freakin Dale Purinton.
And yes, you can yell "CORSI SUX" all you want, but the other team just doesn't shoot much when he's on the ice. That has a lot of value whether you think it does or not.
- Status
