Value of: Brendan Lemieux

[SingnBluesOnBroadway]

Its like anything then.....why try to trade Kreider? Why sell at all?

Are just intentionally being contrarian or do you really not understand how this works?

It was a value post - that is fair if people think he is to valuable to the team to move, everyone is entitled to their perspective.

I have no idea what you're trying to say here. None.

I mean we are talking about a guy who has already been traded twice where he was the "throw in" on the trades and avgs 7-13 minutes a game.

And you propose trading for him as the main piece in a deal. So I have no idea what this has to do with anything. And, really, you don't either.

I get the grit and he brings it night in and night out. But perhaps there is a bigger hole the Rangers need to fill.

The Rangers need more players like Lemieux — players with grit, underrated skill, and offensive upside beyond what he's shown so far. They needs more guys like Lemieux — who are 23, cost controlled and can slot in pretty much anywhere in the lineup. They need more players like Lemieux — good teammates who will stand up for his guys.

Your OP offers none of that.

 

[DutchNYR]

about.

ABOUT WHAT?

I mean, I literally quoted the last word you said.

 

[lomiller1]

While I understand the opinion, a GM would be dumb to not take a first round pick for Lemeiux. He is a decent 3rd line player. He won't top 30 points this year, and is getting about 13 minutes a game. He is also in the bottom third of the team for corsi and other metrics. Yes he hits, but you can sign a bottom six grinder for 2 mil a year to provide similar production.

Picks outside the top 10 don’t usually become much more than that. A GM would need to be a complete idiot to trade a young NHL player for a pick in the 25-30 range. Lemieux himself was taken 31OA and is an example of a relatively successful player from that point in the draft.
Here are the players taken around him in 2014
26 Montreal Nikita Scherbak
27 San Jose Nikolay Goldobin
28 NY Islanders Josh Ho-Sang
29 Los Angeles Adrian Kempe
30 New Jersey John Quenneville
31 Buffalo Brendan Lemieux
32 Florida Jayce Hawryluk
33 St. Louis Ivan Barbashev
34 Calgary Mason McDonald
35 Tampa Bay Dominik Masin
36 Vancouver Thatcher Demko

 

[bigdog16]

Again we understand the grit BL brings, but he has already been a "throw in" on 2 trades in his young career....not because he has huge upside, and 70pt potential. If the other teams thought that he likely would not have been moved. For the your sake I hope you are right that and he turns out to be a top line forward, but I am not sure it is in the cards for him sadly.

That wasn't the point of my post at all, my point was that the OP was so far off value-wise it was comical. I don't expect him to be a top 6 guy, nobody does. He scored at a .85 clip in the AHL his 21 yr old season. So I do think he has more to offer offensively down the road. But no - hes not a top line guy. And not to degrade the Bruins in any way, your in a way better position than us right now, but JFK is struggling in a league inferior to the AHL. Why is that enticing in any way

 

[tony d]

Don't see the Bruins being interested in Lemieux. I think for them the only Rangers player they'd have interest in is Kreider.

 

[CowbellConray]

Picks outside the top 10 don’t usually become much more than that. A GM would need to be a complete idiot to trade a young NHL player for a pick in the 25-30 range. Lemieux himself was taken 31OA and is an example of a relatively successful player from that point in the draft.
Here are the players taken around him in 2014
26 Montreal Nikita Scherbak
27 San Jose Nikolay Goldobin
28 NY Islanders Josh Ho-Sang
29 Los Angeles Adrian Kempe
30 New Jersey John Quenneville
31 Buffalo Brendan Lemieux
32 Florida Jayce Hawryluk
33 St. Louis Ivan Barbashev
34 Calgary Mason McDonald
35 Tampa Bay Dominik Masin
36 Vancouver Thatcher Demko

The bulk of picks may not, but 2014 is a bad example because it was known to be an awful draft year. If we look at 2013, or 2015, we see the talent in those spots outweighs what Lemieux will likely bring:

2015:
1 22 Washington Ilya Samsonov
1 23 Vancouver Brock Boeser
1 24 Philadelphia Travis Konecny
1 25 Winnipeg Jack Roslovic
1 26 Montreal Noah Juulsen
1 27 Anaheim Jacob Larsson
1 28 NY Islanders Anthony Beauvillier
1 29 Columbus Gabriel Carlsson
1 30 Arizona Nick Merkley
2 31 San Jose Jeremy Roy
2 32 Arizona Christian Fischer
2 33 Tampa Bay Mitchell Stephens
2 34 Toronto Travis Dermott
2 35 Carolina Sebastian Aho
2 36 Ottawa Gabriel Gagne
2 37 Boston Brandon Carlo

2013:
1 20 Detroit Anthony Mantha
1 21 Toronto Frederik Gauthier
1 22 Calgary Emile Poirier
1 23 Washington Andre Burakovsky
1 24 Vancouver Hunter Shinkaruk
1 25 Montreal Michael McCarron
1 26 Anaheim Shea Theodore
1 27 Columbus Marko Dano
1 28 Calgary Morgan Klimchuk
1 29 Dallas Jason Dickinson
1 30 Chicago Ryan Hartman
2 31 Florida Ian McCoshen
2 32 Colorado Chris Bigras
2 33 Tampa Bay Adam Erne
2 34 Montreal Jacob De La Rose
2 35 Buffalo JT Compher
2 36 Montreal Zachary Fucale
2 37 Los Angeles Valentin Zykov

We could go draft by draft, but from my look, about a third of the picks around the range of the 1st round pick you would get for Brendan have a shot at being the same quality or a better quality player.

If you decide to keep the player, fine - totally understood. But from my understanding of GM's they tend to be overconfident and believe they can find talent throughout the first round. Tampa has dealt players for picks knowing they would prefer to take a shot at a home run instead of settling for the double they have right now. So I think a GM would take a first for Lemieux - and it wouldnt be a hesitant thought.

But I wont get too much more into this - my opinions are all made and out there for people to agree/disagree as they desire.

 

[Rydan]

nope

As nearly all NYR posters here indicate, he is worth more to us than value in a vacuum, which = overpayment. And for that overpayment to be meaningful, it must be in currency NY wants.

If we move Trouba to DET - the one place he might waive to go to - and to offset loss of tuffness in surrendering BL, RD McAvoy has to go here. If that is the case, Deangelo has to come to Boston.

Deangelo makes moving on from Krug to cheaper replacement less painful. He is rfa atm, so while you must expect AT LEAST 4 if not more for next year, I think he is agreeable to 4 next season in a deal w/term where his salary escalates to Dumba territory at an acceptable clip. So while McAvoy is short term very reasonable $, Deangelo at 4ish for next season actually helps your cap.

And I'm sure Deangelo, who is looking for his first payday, will gladly give you 7 years at market-ish. McAvoy is closer to ufa once his short term deal ends. Will he want to return to Long Beach NY if NY ponies up $? Unclear, NYR RD pic for then only starting to come into focus. If that happens --- a big if yes --- but if that happens, Bs could lose him for a lot less than the cost controlled Deangelo.

Shoe on the other foot, will Kreider want to go home to Beantown, or does he prefer return to the Big Apple? That is risk Rangers take. But anyhoo, consensus is Kreider is 1st +, w/the + influenced by how late the 1st is -- presumably close to the Hayes deal.

And as said by most herein, Lemieux requires overpayment.

Hence McAvoy + DeBrusk + 1st

Do I expect Bs to agree to this?
No, but only b'c they have room to negotiate from what would be top $ overpayment to something less that = a wince. Namely, Bruins counter by removing DeBrusk with something less.

Rangers presumably accept.

So as long as you accept the consensus premise that Lem goes nowhere w/o overpayment, that Kreider commands a haul wherever he goes, and that Deangelo and McAvoy, tho 2 different skillsets, are both talented, valuable RDs, then there is some basis for this deal demonstrated in logic.

so no joke

pretty good joke

 

[BearsofBeantown]

nope

As nearly all NYR posters here indicate, he is worth more to us than value in a vacuum, which = overpayment. And for that overpayment to be meaningful, it must be in currency NY wants.

If we move Trouba to DET - the one place he might waive to go to - and to offset loss of tuffness in surrendering BL, RD McAvoy has to go here. If that is the case, Deangelo has to come to Boston.

Deangelo makes moving on from Krug to cheaper replacement less painful. He is rfa atm, so while you must expect AT LEAST 4 if not more for next year, I think he is agreeable to 4 next season in a deal w/term where his salary escalates to Dumba territory at an acceptable clip. So while McAvoy is short term very reasonable $, Deangelo at 4ish for next season actually helps your cap.

And I'm sure Deangelo, who is looking for his first payday, will gladly give you 7 years at market-ish. McAvoy is closer to ufa once his short term deal ends. Will he want to return to Long Beach NY if NY ponies up $? Unclear, NYR RD pic for then only starting to come into focus. If that happens --- a big if yes --- but if that happens, Bs could lose him for a lot less than the cost controlled Deangelo.

Shoe on the other foot, will Kreider want to go home to Beantown, or does he prefer return to the Big Apple? That is risk Rangers take. But anyhoo, consensus is Kreider is 1st +, w/the + influenced by how late the 1st is -- presumably close to the Hayes deal.

And as said by most herein, Lemieux requires overpayment.

Hence McAvoy + DeBrusk + 1st

Do I expect Bs to agree to this?
No, but only b'c they have room to negotiate from what would be top $ overpayment to something less that = a wince. Namely, Bruins counter by removing DeBrusk with something less.

Rangers presumably accept.

So as long as you accept the consensus premise that Lem goes nowhere w/o overpayment, that Kreider commands a haul wherever he goes, and that Deangelo and McAvoy, tho 2 different skillsets, are both talented, valuable RDs, then there is some basis for this deal demonstrated in logic.

so no joke

Great detailed explanation for sure - the sad part McAvoy isn't likely being moved and the Bruins are looking for grit and a winger to play with DeBrusk and Krecji. While DeAngelo has shown offensive upside he has a history of being a distraction dating back to Junior hockey which to be frank is not entirely needed in beantown. Albeit he adds some offensive to replace Krug, the grumblings are Krug at 6.75 for 6 years which is only 1.5 million more than he is making now and if you assume Tony is 4.5 (Krug @2.25 more and already a well regarded team mate...I take Krug)

I also don't believe in blowing a 1st for Kreider. I get he has speed, size and other intangibles, but at best he is a 53 point player - which frankly given he is a LW doesn't address the RW gap we have.

And then we add BL, who by many ranger fans say he is untouchable which is my mistake as I figured a player who 10 minutes a game and plays as a bottom 6 forward would could be had.

 

[BearsofBeantown]

does not have to develop into a top line F to be valued by the team

if he does a Jan Erixon and adds offensive skill down the road, fab, that is a huge +.

but we are not expecting that
what he brings, including hustle every single effin play, commands our respect, admiration, etc and he is not being moved for on paper = value disregarding those intangibles.

You want him badly enuf, you overpay in the currency we want.

Fair, but no team wants him bad enough to move a 1st - which goes back to my previous comments....he is untouchable for the Rangers team.

 

[BearsofBeantown]

That wasn't the point of my post at all, my point was that the OP was so far off value-wise it was comical. I don't expect him to be a top 6 guy, nobody does. He scored at a .85 clip in the AHL his 21 yr old season. So I do think he has more to offer offensively down the road. But no - hes not a top line guy. And not to degrade the Bruins in any way, your in a way better position than us right now, but JFK is struggling in a league inferior to the AHL. Why is that enticing in any way

That is fair, that OP is required but many people asking for a 1st round pick etc. is a bit extreme hence my comments about him being untouchable. JFK is not a lost cause by any means, but we have a boat load of Center prospects that a change of scenery would benefit him a lot and add mutual benefit to the team that takes. Granted perhaps he and the 2nd round pick are under payments because bottom 6 grit needs more, which is also fair.

 

[lomiller1]

The bulk of picks may not, but 2014 is a bad example because it was known to be an awful draft year. If we look at 2013, or 2015, we see the talent in those spots outweighs what Lemieux will likely bring:

Only a couple of the players you’ve highlighted are clearly better than Lemieux and most of those were drafted closer to 20 than 30. There is a substantial drop off in the value of a 20OA pick and a 30OA pick. The chances of getting a player significantly better than Lemieux with a late first round pick is pretty low, and even by your own admission you need at least 3 late first round picks to be reasonably sure of getting someone who is at least as good.

Sure there may be a 2% chance to get a star player Pasternak or an Aho but hoping you hit a 2% lottery chance isn’t any way to build a team. You still need solid players on UFA contracts to surround those stars and when you have one trading them away for a pick that is unlikely to even replace what you already had is not a good idea.


BTW, this isn't coming from a Rangers fan. I'm a Jets fan who was happy to see the Jets get rid of him. He was a locker room cancer in Junior, he was a locker room cancer in the AHL and IMO he will be a problem in the NHL as well.

 

[CowbellConray]

Only a couple of the players you’ve highlighted are clearly better than Lemieux and most of those were drafted closer to 20 than 30. There is a substantial drop off in the value of a 20OA pick and a 30OA pick. The chances of getting a player significantly better than Lemieux with a late first round pick is pretty low, and even by your own admission you need at least 3 late first round picks to be reasonably sure of getting someone who is at least as good.

Sure there may be a 2% chance to get a star player Pasternak or an Aho but hoping you hit a 2% lottery chance isn’t any way to build a team. You still need solid players on UFA contracts to surround those stars and when you have one trading them away for a pick that is unlikely to even replace what you already had is not a good idea.


BTW, this isn't coming from a Rangers fan. I'm a Jets fan who was happy to see the Jets get rid of him. He was a locker room cancer in Junior, he was a locker room cancer in the AHL and IMO he will be a problem in the NHL as well.

Funny enough I am a Sabres fan who was bummed when we dealt him to you all initially!

 

[BearsofBeantown]

Are just intentionally being contrarian or do you really not understand how this works?



I have no idea what you're trying to say here. None.



And you propose trading for him as the main piece in a deal. So I have no idea what this has to do with anything. And, really, you don't either.



The Rangers need more players like Lemieux — players with grit, underrated skill, and offensive upside beyond what he's shown so far. They needs more guys like Lemieux — who are 23, cost controlled and can slot in pretty much anywhere in the lineup. They need more players like Lemieux — good teammates who will stand up for his guys.

Your OP offers none of that.

I can appreciate that point of view as the value he brings to the Rangers and will accept it 100% - the goal was for a bottom 6 grit player that fits the Bruins pack mentality. I just don't agree with people assuming he is worth a 1st round pick etc. That being said, if that is the inherent value to the Rangers than so be it, I just don't see many teams making that move.

 

[SingnBluesOnBroadway]

I can appreciate that point of view as the value he brings to the Rangers and will accept it 100% - the goal was for a bottom 6 grit player that fits the Bruins pack mentality. I just don't agree with people assuming he is worth a 1st round pick etc. That being said, if that is the inherent value to the Rangers than so be it, I just don't see many teams making that move.

Worth vs. giving a team a reason to make a trade are two very different things. For the points I spelled out (including what you offered) the Rangers are not compelled to deal him.

 

[BearsofBeantown]

Worth vs. giving a team a reason to make a trade are two very different things. For the points I spelled out (including what you offered) the Rangers are not compelled to deal him.

Yeah I also under estimated the "reason" aspect for a bottom 6 RFA forward.

 

[SingnBluesOnBroadway]

Yeah I also under estimated the "reason" aspect for a bottom 6 RFA forward.

You asked for him.....

 

[BearsofBeantown]

You asked for him.....

100% I asked for him - like I said, I under estimated the value of a bottom 6 forward. Its like me saying Sean Kuraly can land a 1st because he never takes a shift off, stands up for his team mates etc.

 

[SingnBluesOnBroadway]

100% I asked for him - like I said, I under estimated the value of a bottom 6 forward. Its like me saying Sean Kuraly can land a 1st because he never takes a shift off, stands up for his team mates etc.

Keep hearing what you want to hear.

 

[BearsofBeantown]

Keep hearing what you want to hear.

Not hearing anything.....reading it in the posts