Value of: Brendan Lemieux

[Kocur Dill]

Noel Acciari, Richard Panik, and Pat Maroon were all signed this past offseason for around 2 million a year. And those weren't deals that kept them with a team. They all produce similarly to Brendan, although they may not be quite as physical (Maroon otherwise).

If you like Lemieux as a pest similar to Roussel, who can play a hard game but isnt really a top 6 talent, thats fine. But for actually impact on the ice, you can find players that are similar to Lemieux's current production in free agency for around 2 million.

If you think he will become a Ferland type of player, which will require him taking major offensive strides, then he will be worth more. But he doesnt play a top 6 game, and current is a bottom six player. He has 11 EV points. Thats the same as Kyle Okposo and Austin Watson. Those are bottom six forwards.

His impact is drawing penalties similar to Marchand. It's a lost skill. NYR is build on PP chances at the moment. He inflates other players numbers in that regard in addition to his hard g&a numbers.

Add to that his role as a modern enforcer and he's quite the package.

He's and oddball that stats cant quantify. You'd have to watch him game in and game out to understand the positive impact he has on NYR success.

There is a reason it was reported many other GM's were phoning Gorton last season to see if we would flip him after we got him in the Hayes deal.

 

[eco's bones]

I once said I wouldnt trade Patrick Kaleta for a 2nd round pick because I loved the way he played on my team. I totally get why Ranger fans are in love with Lemieux. When you have a pest that can play some decent hockey... its an auto fan favorite.

With that being said, he isn't worth a first round pick. Even if he is a fan favorite - the value of a first is higher than his.

You replace Lemieux name with any other player in the league with similar production, and you wouldn't trade a late first for them. However, I dont blame any Ranger fans for wanting their guy. Its what we as fans do.

My team had Lemieux once..... but we trade any potential talent we have to other groups for their trash. So I dont get to enjoy him on my team lol

......and we might need to be lucky to get a player as good or as useful as Lemieux with a late 1st round pick. You're rolling the dice usually when you're at the tail end of the first round.

 

[Shootertooter]

Petr Cehlarik & 2nd round pick, I'd do that. I like Lemieux.

That's pretty terrible.........so likely the 59-60-61 or 62 pick and a bad forward.
The Rangers need more guys like Lemieux on their roster not to trade the one they have for dogsh*t.

 

[pld459666]

Id do it for like a 2nd and a 3rd/4th

I wouldn't.

 

[Sheppy]

That's pretty terrible.........so likely the 59-60-61 or 62 pick and a bad forward.
The Rangers need more guys like Lemieux on their roster not to trade the one they have for dogsh*t.

Ok.

 

[EdJovanovski]

Lemieux is the textbook definition of a player who's worth more to his team than he'd be valued in a trade. I consider him one of the biggest untouchables on the team, I'd sign him to a league max length contract if I could.

 

[UnSandvich]

Read all the Blue Jacket fan responses to Josh Anderson trade "offers". That'll be the same response you'll get here.

"No, short of a significant overpay"

 

[bernmeister]

Lemieux's value is: Way more than what a team would reasonably offer. He's an important piece for the Rangers and there's zero incentive to trade him for anything resembling "fair" value.

concur

He's the closest thing to Sean Avery for us since Sean Avery which is to say he's an absolute dick to play against. He's also been decent dropping the gloves and he's going to get better. I see him as a 3rd liner but also an identity player and he's cost controlled. This guy is going to be the perfect 3rd liner for us some day. He's pretty good at it now. I don't want to trade him. I wish we could clone him at least a couple more times. Find your own *******. He's ours.

And this is a headache free version of Sean Avery if not a better player as well.

NY isnt trading him unless it's a big overpay. His value can't be quantified in a trade from a team that is relatively soft up front.

He only gets moved if he is a throw in on a big deal for pieces we want.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Noel Acciari, Richard Panik, and Pat Maroon were all signed this past offseason for around 2 million a year. And those weren't deals that kept them with a team. They all produce similarly to Brendan, although they may not be quite as physical (Maroon otherwise).

If you like Lemieux as a pest similar to Roussel, who can play a hard game but isnt really a top 6 talent, thats fine. But for actually impact on the ice, you can find players that are similar to Lemieux's current production in free agency for around 2 million.

If you think he will become a Ferland type of player, which will require him taking major offensive strides, then he will be worth more. But he doesnt play a top 6 game, and current is a bottom six player. He has 11 EV points. Thats the same as Kyle Okposo and Austin Watson. Those are bottom six forwards.

You disregarded everything I said.

How about this? We'll keep our dime-a-dozen grinder that other teams seem to want to trade for. Problem solved.

 

[CowbellConray]

You disregarded everything I said.

How about this? We'll keep our dime-a-dozen grinder that other teams seem to want to trade for. Problem solved.

No, you can't. You are underselling Lemieux's value. He's shooting a very low SH% this season, as well, and he's not going to play 82 games. With his career SH over an 82 game pace, he'd be on pace for 34 points in his first full season as an NHL'er.
So if he has two things happen that have not occurred this season (higher shooting % (a 4% swing), plays a full season while being super physical) - he would have third line scoring numbers as a 23 year old. That doesnt change that he scores at a bottom six rate currently.

He'll probably score about 40 points next season with a bigger role.
But you are assuming he will. That's not a guarentee and shouldn't be treated like it's 100% going to happen.

And as you said, he's only playing 13 minutes per game, and usually doesn't play with the best linemates either.
Because he isn't a top 6 quality player right now

He's much more of a middle six forward than a bottom six forward, and you absolutely cannot sign a similar player for 2M in UFA.

I just gave you three players that scored at a similar rate in a similar role this season, that were signed this past offseason, for below, at, or above 2M in UFA.

Again, I have only made two claims -
1) He is a bottom six player. If you can show one thing that tells me other wise I am all ears. He doesnt score at a top 6 rate, he doesnt play top 6 ice time, he get PP time which 25% of his points have come from, and doesn't play a strong two way game. He is a 23 year old bottom sixer with potential to turn into a middle six guy in his prime. He draws penalties at a good rate - but that isn't what constitutes a top 6 player.

2) He isn't worth a 1st round pick, or, if you were offered a first round pick the sane GM would accept the deal. The closest comparable to him is Hartman, who scored at a better rate the season he was dealt. He was also around the same age, and had a season the year prior with 31 in 76 with no PP time (he had 1 PP point that year). And that trade has shown you why you have to be careful with these types of players. Not to mention scoring is up this year. If a GM is offered a first to get him, the right move in the Rangers situation is to take the deal.

I fail to see how what I have said is wrong or disregards what you have said.

I said I would offer a second or a comparable defensive player. But a first is a chip that is used to try and acquire top six talent, whether through the draft or trade.​

 

[BearsofBeantown]

overpayment required in currency NY wants

McAvoy DeBrusk BOS 2020 1st
for
DeAngelo Lemieux rental Kreider

like dat

I'll bite....this was a joke comment right?

 

[BearsofBeantown]

It would start at a first round pick.

Zero reason to even entertain moving him for less. He is that important to this team. So that proposal (a throw-in and a 4th) is terrible for the Rangers and an easy hang-up.

Ok so you are saying essentially he is untouchable as not many teams will pay a 1st rounder for him.

 

[Kaapo di tutti capi]

Ok so you are saying essentially he is untouchable as not many teams will pay a 1st rounder for him.

He brings something to the Rangers that is in short supply on that team, so yeah, I'm guessing that's what he's saying. Rangers need more guys like him, not less.

 

[SingnBluesOnBroadway]

Ok so you are saying essentially he is untouchable as not many teams will pay a 1st rounder for him.

This is the third time I’ve asked this question in this thread: why would the Rangers trade him?

 

[TBF1972]

Exactly. It's almost like some don't understand the concept of an over-payment being required.

Not everybody is a fan of a team, that frequently overpays in free agency.

 

[SingnBluesOnBroadway]

Not everybody is a fan of a team, that frequently overpays in free agency.

1999 wants its post back.

 

[bigdog16]

I'll bite....this was a joke comment right?

More realistic than the OP

 

[BearsofBeantown]

This is the third time I’ve asked this question in this thread: why would the Rangers trade him?

Its like anything then.....why try to trade Kreider? Why sell at all? It was a value post - that is fair if people think he is to valuable to the team to move, everyone is entitled to their perspective. I mean we are talking about a guy who has already been traded twice where he was the "throw in" on the trades and avgs 7-13 minutes a game. I get the grit and he brings it night in and night out. But perhaps there is a bigger hole the Rangers need to fill.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Its like anything then.....why try to trade Kreider? Why sell at all? It was a value post - that is fair if people think he is to valuable to the team to move, everyone is entitled to their perspective. I mean we are talking about a guy who has already been traded twice where he was the "throw in" on the trades and avgs 7-13 minutes a game. I get the grit and he brings it night in and night out. But perhaps there is a bigger hole the Rangers need to fill.

Get it right. He doesn't average 7-13 minutes per game.

 

[Shootertooter]

No, you can't. You are underselling Lemieux's value. He's shooting a very low SH% this season, as well, and he's not going to play 82 games. With his career SH over an 82 game pace, he'd be on pace for 34 points in his first full season as an NHL'er.
So if he has two things happen that have not occurred this season (higher shooting % (a 4% swing), plays a full season while being super physical) - he would have third line scoring numbers as a 23 year old. That doesnt change that he scores at a bottom six rate currently.

He'll probably score about 40 points next season with a bigger role.
But you are assuming he will. That's not a guarentee and shouldn't be treated like it's 100% going to happen.

And as you said, he's only playing 13 minutes per game, and usually doesn't play with the best linemates either.
Because he isn't a top 6 quality player right now

He's much more of a middle six forward than a bottom six forward, and you absolutely cannot sign a similar player for 2M in UFA.

I just gave you three players that scored at a similar rate in a similar role this season, that were signed this past offseason, for below, at, or above 2M in UFA.

Again, I have only made two claims -
1) He is a bottom six player. If you can show one thing that tells me other wise I am all ears. He doesnt score at a top 6 rate, he doesnt play top 6 ice time, he get PP time which 25% of his points have come from, and doesn't play a strong two way game. He is a 23 year old bottom sixer with potential to turn into a middle six guy in his prime. He draws penalties at a good rate - but that isn't what constitutes a top 6 player.

2) He isn't worth a 1st round pick, or, if you were offered a first round pick the sane GM would accept the deal. The closest comparable to him is Hartman, who scored at a better rate the season he was dealt. He was also around the same age, and had a season the year prior with 31 in 76 with no PP time (he had 1 PP point that year). And that trade has shown you why you have to be careful with these types of players. Not to mention scoring is up this year. If a GM is offered a first to get him, the right move in the Rangers situation is to take the deal.

I fail to see how what I have said is wrong or disregards what you have said.

I said I would offer a second or a comparable defensive player. But a first is a chip that is used to try and acquire top six talent, whether through the draft or trade.​

The flaw in this assessment is that you are basing his value solely on point production and that isn't always an accurate measure.

 

[BearsofBeantown]

More realistic than the OP

Again we understand the grit BL brings, but he has already been a "throw in" on 2 trades in his young career....not because he has huge upside, and 70pt potential. If the other teams thought that he likely would not have been moved. For the your sake I hope you are right that and he turns out to be a top line forward, but I am not sure it is in the cards for him sadly.

 

[Dijock94]

Its like anything then.....why try to trade Kreider? Why sell at all? It was a value post - that is fair if people think he is to valuable to the team to move, everyone is entitled to their perspective. I mean we are talking about a guy who has already been traded twice where he was the "throw in" on the trades and avgs 7-13 minutes a game. I get the grit and he brings it night in and night out. But perhaps there is a bigger hole the Rangers need to fill.

His role is exactly what we need more of. That’s the point, we’re moving Kreider because of his age and price to keep. Lemieux isn’t on the market because he is the age that fits our rebuild, and he is cost controlled. He’s also the only forward on our roster with any type of grit. We literally need two more players just like him.

 

[bernmeister]

overpayment required in currency NY wants

McAvoy DeBrusk BOS 2020 1st
for
DeAngelo Lemieux rental Kreider

like dat

I'll bite....this was a joke comment right?

nope

As nearly all NYR posters here indicate, he is worth more to us than value in a vacuum, which = overpayment. And for that overpayment to be meaningful, it must be in currency NY wants.

If we move Trouba to DET - the one place he might waive to go to - and to offset loss of tuffness in surrendering BL, RD McAvoy has to go here. If that is the case, Deangelo has to come to Boston.

Deangelo makes moving on from Krug to cheaper replacement less painful. He is rfa atm, so while you must expect AT LEAST 4 if not more for next year, I think he is agreeable to 4 next season in a deal w/term where his salary escalates to Dumba territory at an acceptable clip. So while McAvoy is short term very reasonable $, Deangelo at 4ish for next season actually helps your cap.

And I'm sure Deangelo, who is looking for his first payday, will gladly give you 7 years at market-ish. McAvoy is closer to ufa once his short term deal ends. Will he want to return to Long Beach NY if NY ponies up $? Unclear, NYR RD pic for then only starting to come into focus. If that happens --- a big if yes --- but if that happens, Bs could lose him for a lot less than the cost controlled Deangelo.

Shoe on the other foot, will Kreider want to go home to Beantown, or does he prefer return to the Big Apple? That is risk Rangers take. But anyhoo, consensus is Kreider is 1st +, w/the + influenced by how late the 1st is -- presumably close to the Hayes deal.

And as said by most herein, Lemieux requires overpayment.

Hence McAvoy + DeBrusk + 1st

Do I expect Bs to agree to this?
No, but only b'c they have room to negotiate from what would be top $ overpayment to something less that = a wince. Namely, Bruins counter by removing DeBrusk with something less.

Rangers presumably accept.

So as long as you accept the consensus premise that Lem goes nowhere w/o overpayment, that Kreider commands a haul wherever he goes, and that Deangelo and McAvoy, tho 2 different skillsets, are both talented, valuable RDs, then there is some basis for this deal demonstrated in logic.

so no joke

 

[EpicDing]

Who would've thought the Rangers fanbase would be unified in its love for the son of a rival's hated player?

To echo what was said here, we need more Lemieuxs, not less. It takes an overpayment.

 

[bernmeister]

Again we understand the grit BL brings, but he has already been a "throw in" on 2 trades in his young career....not because he has huge upside, and 70pt potential. If the other teams thought that he likely would not have been moved. For the your sake I hope you are right that and he turns out to be a top line forward, but I am not sure it is in the cards for him sadly.

does not have to develop into a top line F to be valued by the team

if he does a Jan Erixon and adds offensive skill down the road, fab, that is a huge +.

but we are not expecting that
what he brings, including hustle every single effin play, commands our respect, admiration, etc and he is not being moved for on paper = value disregarding those intangibles.

You want him badly enuf, you overpay in the currency we want.