Player Discussion: Brayden Point

[J T Money]

I'd say there is zero chance a deal is done and simply waiting. What would happen if Point got in a car crash and lost his arm like that Dolphins player? He wouldn't get a contract after that, hence why he would sign to guarantee that his family is set for life.

 

[BoltzManConstant]

I'd say there is zero chance a deal is done and simply waiting. What would happen if Point got in a car crash and lost his arm like that Dolphins player? He wouldn't get a contract after that, hence why he would sign to guarantee that his family is set for life.

My thinking exactly. It's hard to see what would be in it for Point to delay the signing if they've agreed to the terms.

I guess it's possible he's taken out a loss-of-value insurance contract, but I've never actually heard of that outside of college athletes. But in any case, I doubt the policy would make him whole vs having signed the contract.

And of course, the longer he waits, the later he gets his signing bonus.

 

[LightningStrikes]

I too doubt pissing off Toronto management, fan base and media is high up on his bucket list.

 

[God King Fudge]

Yeah, this isn't high school. JBB doesn't care at all about TOR.

 

[J T Money]

My thinking exactly. It's hard to see what would be in it for Point to delay the signing if they've agreed to the terms.

I guess it's possible he's taken out a loss-of-value insurance contract, but I've never actually heard of that outside of college athletes. But in any case, I doubt the policy would make him whole vs having signed the contract.

And of course, the longer he waits, the later he gets his signing bonus.

Getting an insurance policy is becoming more and more common among athletes these days...but insurance won't cover close to what his potential contract would be since it's not in writing (and signed).

 

[Steazy Doo]

Yeah, this isn't high school. JBB doesn't care at all about TOR.

What if JBB has a crush on Dubas and offersheets one of his players beacuse he likes him?

 

[DFC]

I too doubt pissing off Toronto management, fan base and media is high up on his bucket list.

As opposed to the rest of our bucket lists, where it's right near the top.

 

[God King Fudge]

What if JBB has a crush on Dubas and offersheets one of his players beacuse he likes him?

 

[Todd1a]

of course we want to sign point long term but I remember Lebrun saying something they would rather try and bridge point 2-3 years term to save some cap space.

 

[LightningStrikes]

of course we want to sign point long term but I remember Lebrun saying something they would rather try and bridge point 2-3 years term to save some cap space.

To do what? So you can pay Vas, Serg, Cernak, Cirelli next season? Then what, after Point's 2-3 years? Lose him because you ran out of money. Makes no sense.

23 year old 40+ goals scoring two-way centers don't grow on trees. The goal has to be to lock him up for as long as possible.

 

[Todd1a]

To do what? So you can pay Vas, Serg, Cernak, Cirelli next season? Then what, after Point's 2-3 years? Lose him because you ran out of money. Makes no sense.

23 year old 40+ goals scoring two-way centers don't grow on trees. The goal has to be to lock him up for as long as possible.

If you bridge point for three years you can get past all these ntc that killorn, Johnson, palat have. Ya we need money for Vasy next year when he asks for 9-10 million per season! And the only guy we can move next summer is killorn! You think point is scoring 40 plus goals each year ? I doubt it I think he is a 30 to 33 goals a year guy and 35 to 45 assists. I think points wise this past season will be the best season he ever has.

 

[LightningStrikes]

If you bridge point for three years you can get past all these ntc that killorn, Johnson, palat have. Ya we need money for Vasy next year when he asks for 9-10 million per season! And the only guy we can move next summer is killorn! You think point is scoring 40 plus goals each year ? I doubt it I think he is a 30 to 33 goals a year guy and 35 to 45 assists. I think points wise this past season will be the best season he ever has.

The Vasilevskiy situation is gonna be interesting, no doubt (although maybe a thing for another thread). It's also interesting that Vinik was just very recently quoted specifically saying "it's either Point or Vasilevskiy" (although probably meant as an example/hypothetical). With the above mentioned other players looking for extensions and raises after next season (Cirelli, Serg, Cernak) JBB got some work to do.

Then again, at this point there are only five goaltenders in the entire league with a cap hit higher than $6.5M:

Price at $10.5M
Bob at $10M
Lundqvist at $8.5M
Rask at $7M
Fleury at $7M

Other #1 goalies will be UFA / RFA after next season too: Holtby, Lehner, Murray, Markstrom, Greiss and others. UFAs get overpaid, RFAs not so much most of the time.

On a team with arguably several franchise players already (Kuch, Stamkos, Hedman, most likely Point) how much can and will we give Vasi? Would you feel comfortable paying him Kucherov money? Is it unlikely to have him at Gibson/Holtby/Hellebuyck/Jones/Quick money, so around $6.0 - $6.5M? $7.5M tops?

 

[seadawg]

If you bridge point for three years you can get past all these ntc that killorn, Johnson, palat have. Ya we need money for Vasy next year when he asks for 9-10 million per season! And the only guy we can move next summer is killorn! You think point is scoring 40 plus goals each year ? I doubt it I think he is a 30 to 33 goals a year guy and 35 to 45 assists. I think points wise this past season will be the best season he ever has.

Really? That seems awfully pessimistic. In his rookie season, he scored 40 pts in 68 games in a limited role. In year two, he scored 66 points with an increased role, and then exploded for 92 pts with top line and top PP minutes. I think he will be a permanent fixture on the top line and top PP for years to come. Even if you don't see him repeating 92 pts (he did tail off towards the end of the season), suggesting he is only a 65-78 pt player seems low. No doubt he will have the odd season in the 70 point range, but I think most seasons he will be at least a PPG player.

 

[twenty5psi]

With Carle's buyout and Domingue rolling off the books next year that gives you another 3M for Vasy, figure we find another 1M or so and sign him to an ~8x8 next year?

 

[Todd1a]

The Vasilevskiy situation is gonna be interesting, no doubt (although maybe a thing for another thread). It's also interesting that Vinik was just very recently quoted specifically saying "it's either Point or Vasilevskiy" (although probably meant as an example/hypothetical). With the above mentioned other players looking for extensions and raises after next season (Cirelli, Serg, Cernak) JBB got some work to do.

Then again, at this point there are only five goaltenders in the entire league with a cap hit higher than $6.5M:

Price at $10.5M
Bob at $10M
Lundqvist at $8.5M
Rask at $7M
Fleury at $7M

Other #1 goalies will be UFA / RFA after next season too: Holtby, Lehner, Murray, Markstrom, Greiss and others. UFAs get overpaid, RFAs not so much most of the time.

On a team with arguably several franchise players already (Kuch, Stamkos, Hedman, most likely Point) how much can and will we give Vasi? Would you feel comfortable paying him Kucherov money? Is it unlikely to have him at Gibson/Holtby/Hellebuyck/Jones/Quick money, so around $6.0 - $6.5M? $7.5M tops?

I think what vinik means was if example we brought in karlsson then we couldn’t afford to sign Vasy or point long term we say goodbye to one.

 

[VinikToWinIt]

Really? That seems awfully pessimistic. In his rookie season, he scored 40 pts in 68 games in a limited role. In year two, he scored 66 points with an increased role, and then exploded for 92 pts with top line and top PP minutes. I think he will be a permanent fixture on the top line and top PP for years to come. Even if you don't see him repeating 92 pts (he did tail off towards the end of the season), suggesting he is only a 65-78 pt player seems low. No doubt he will have the odd season in the 70 point range, but I think most seasons he will be at least a PPG player.

Kucherov is a kingmaker, so I could see him regressing a bit in points if they switch lines. But he's a play driver in his own right, so I could see him pacing close if not quite on par with last season. Maybe 80-85 points.

 

[VinikToWinIt]

The Vasilevskiy situation is gonna be interesting, no doubt (although maybe a thing for another thread). It's also interesting that Vinik was just very recently quoted specifically saying "it's either Point or Vasilevskiy" (although probably meant as an example/hypothetical). With the above mentioned other players looking for extensions and raises after next season (Cirelli, Serg, Cernak) JBB got some work to do.

Then again, at this point there are only five goaltenders in the entire league with a cap hit higher than $6.5M:

Price at $10.5M
Bob at $10M
Lundqvist at $8.5M
Rask at $7M
Fleury at $7M

Other #1 goalies will be UFA / RFA after next season too: Holtby, Lehner, Murray, Markstrom, Greiss and others. UFAs get overpaid, RFAs not so much most of the time.

On a team with arguably several franchise players already (Kuch, Stamkos, Hedman, most likely Point) how much can and will we give Vasi? Would you feel comfortable paying him Kucherov money? Is it unlikely to have him at Gibson/Holtby/Hellebuyck/Jones/Quick money, so around $6.0 - $6.5M? $7.5M tops?

Anything over $8M makes me squeamish with a goalie. Goalies are weird and prone to inconsistency, and it's debatable how much of an impact they have on a team vs. a good replacement.

 

[HoseEmDown]

To do what? So you can pay Vas, Serg, Cernak, Cirelli next season? Then what, after Point's 2-3 years? Lose him because you ran out of money. Makes no sense.

23 year old 40+ goals scoring two-way centers don't grow on trees. The goal has to be to lock him up for as long as possible.

In three years Palat is a free agent, so if hasn't been traded yet he walks. Killorn, Johnson and Gourde all have limited NTC by that point and all should be moved. That's 20M gone with just those 4. If you give Point 3x6 now in three years you can easily do 8x9/10. Even if the cap doesn't rise much it should at least 1M a year so that's 3M when he is due. Of the guys who need to get signed next year Vasilevskiy is the only one who will make big money. None of the others will join the 5M club, I really can't see any even getting more than 4 right now.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

In three years Palat is a free agent, so if hasn't been traded yet he walks. Killorn, Johnson and Gourde all have limited NTC by that point and all should be moved. That's 20M gone with just those 4. If you give Point 3x6 now in three years you can easily do 8x9/10. Even if the cap doesn't rise much it should at least 1M a year so that's 3M when he is due. Of the guys who need to get signed next year Vasilevskiy is the only one who will make big money. None of the others will join the 5M club, I really can't see any even getting more than 4 right now.

The only one I can see getting 5M is Cirelli if he keeps up his play and moves Johnson down the lineup. Cernak might make a case but doubtful since its only 1.5 seasons of play. I realized yesterday looking at our cap that next year alone, we should still be able to fit everyone in by moving Killorn. His 16 team trade list and price is good for a contender or a team on the cusp of the playoffs with his production. Moving up Volkov to the roster should replace his regular season production but not sure about playoff.

My point is, it isn't so bad next season.

 

[DFC]

Kucherov is a kingmaker, so I could see him regressing a bit in points if they switch lines. But he's a play driver in his own right, so I could see him pacing close if not quite on par with last season. Maybe 80-85 points.

Still elite numbers if not paired with an elite forward. And let's not forget he can play a shutdown role when needed.

 

[VinikToWinIt]

Still elite numbers if not paired with an elite forward. And let's not forget he can play a shutdown role when needed.

Yep - no question about his value on the team. He's like a mini Patrice out there.

 

[HoseEmDown]

The only one I can see getting 5M is Cirelli if he keeps up his play and moves Johnson down the lineup. Cernak might make a case but doubtful since its only 1.5 seasons of play. I realized yesterday looking at our cap that next year alone, we should still be able to fit everyone in by moving Killorn. His 16 team trade list and price is good for a contender or a team on the cusp of the playoffs with his production. Moving up Volkov to the roster should replace his regular season production but not sure about playoff.

My point is, it isn't so bad next season.

5M is 2C money, Cirelli isn't a 2C nor has produced like one. Kucherov had back to back 60 point seasons and didn't get 5. Johnson didn't get 5 till after proving he was a 2C. Cirelli would have to have a monster year to sniff that type of money. The only one who will be close is Sergachev because he will have 3 full seasons under his belt so you know more of what you are getting. The cap situation isn't bad at all, it's just like every year where they say this will be the one that gets us and forces us to dump salary but we don't.

 

[God King Fudge]

I'd love to see Point anchor his own line. Stamkos needs a good winger in the worst way. Saddling him with the corpse of Ondrej Palat is frustrating. You're still lacking another good top 6 player after Kuch, Stamkos, Johnson, Gourde and Point, but that's not going to be addressed unless it's one of the Syracuse kids.

Kuch with Stamkos and Point with Gourde would be my starting positions. Can fill in linemates as you go.

As I think about it, I honestly wouldn't mind running something like:

Johnson-Point-Gourde
Stamkos-Cirelli-Kucherov
Killorn-Verhaeghe/ABB-Joseph
Erne-Paquette-Palat

This gets one of the Syracuse kids away from playing wing on the 4th line and puts them at their natural position. Gives Cirelli some dangerous linemates that could both benefit greatly from his solid 2 way play and underrated speed. Gives Point the opportunity to show he can anchor a line without a superstar on his wing. Spreads the wealth out a bit.

Ultimately, I think we do shoot for a shorter term deal in hopes we can persuade him into signing a $6-7M deal for 3 years or so. Allows us to get out from under guys like Killorn and Palat, lets you see what you have in your next crop of guys like the Feet, Volkov, Raddysh, Katchouk, etc. You'd rather lock him up long term for 8-8.5 now vs 6-7 now and 9+ down the road, but 2-3 years wouldn't be the worst.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

5M is 2C money, Cirelli isn't a 2C nor has produced like one. Kucherov had back to back 60 point seasons and didn't get 5. Johnson didn't get 5 till after proving he was a 2C. Cirelli would have to have a monster year to sniff that type of money. The only one who will be close is Sergachev because he will have 3 full seasons under his belt so you know more of what you are getting. The cap situation isn't bad at all, it's just like every year where they say this will be the one that gets us and forces us to dump salary but we don't.

Cirelli keeping with his current pace, could easily score 10 more points if given more minutes. He almost was a 20-20 guy last season with 3rd line minutes and PK time. He could ask for close to 5 if he manages to become a 20-30 or in general a 50 point centre. That was my point with him moving Johnson down the lineup.

Sergachev is a strange case, his value depending on the season could go anywhere from 3 million to 5 million, it really depends on his season and how big the threat of an offer sheet is with him.

EDIT: Just want to say, I see Sergachev being the higher risk of actually signing an offer sheet over Cirelli. I think Cirelli will pick the team, where as Sergachev would actually sign an offer sheet to get what he wants.

 

[DFC]

I'd love to see Point anchor his own line. Stamkos needs a good winger in the worst way. Saddling him with the corpse of Ondrej Palat is frustrating. You're still lacking another good top 6 player after Kuch, Stamkos, Johnson, Gourde and Point, but that's not going to be addressed unless it's one of the Syracuse kids.

Kuch with Stamkos and Point with Gourde would be my starting positions. Can fill in linemates as you go.

As I think about it, I honestly wouldn't mind running something like:

Johnson-Point-Gourde
Stamkos-Cirelli-Kucherov
Killorn-Verhaeghe/ABB-Joseph
Erne-Paquette-Palat

This gets one of the Syracuse kids away from playing wing on the 4th line and puts them at their natural position. Gives Cirelli some dangerous linemates that could both benefit greatly from his solid 2 way play and underrated speed. Gives Point the opportunity to show he can anchor a line without a superstar on his wing. Spreads the wealth out a bit.

Ultimately, I think we do shoot for a shorter term deal in hopes we can persuade him into signing a $6-7M deal for 3 years or so. Allows us to get out from under guys like Killorn and Palat, lets you see what you have in your next crop of guys like the Feet, Volkov, Raddysh, Katchouk, etc. You'd rather lock him up long term for 8-8.5 now vs 6-7 now and 9+ down the road, but 2-3 years wouldn't be the worst.

That would be ideal, but stamkos and Kuch are gonna have to finally learn to not over-pass when they see the other on the ice. As great as they can be together, they've always had a shelf life.