Player Discussion Brandon Pirri

[NickyFotiu]

Just more proof that the eye-test sucks



I think my approach to both of these players is aligned more in (my perceived) reality than taking an approach one way or another, positive or negative. I'm less bullish on JT than most, which I guess is perceived as being negative. I'm more bullish on Pirri than most, which I guess is perceived as being positive.

I think I had JT pegged at 15g/35a max this season which is quite close to where he's at. He has more goals than I expected, but the research I conducted suggested that his sh% was going to decrease this year. And it did, 5v5 and 5v4. What I did not expect, was 4v5 time, where JT has three of his goals.

Now to get to the "fancystat" portion of this post...

His underlying #s are total ****. The Rangers do not shoot as often and get bludgeoned by attempts against when he is on the ice. With the understanding that his line is out there to create quality chances instead of quantity chances, JT's on-ice metrics do not suggest that he moves the needle all that much compared to the rest of the team in quality chances.

Quality over quantity tends to be less repeatable and sustainable than quantity over quality.

So, while he's essentially put up b2b 20 goal years here, I'm not entirely convinced this is what JT is. I think he's a good set up man, I think he'll give you anywhere from 35-40 assists a year (pending ice time, could be more), but I think at the end of the day, he settles in around 15 all situation goals a year. And there's nothing wrong with that at all.

Where my "Miller hater" status opens up is when people in ever off-season deem him a guaranteed 60 point guy, well, I don't buy that. Does that make me "negative" ? Maybe. But, I like to believe it's "real".

Hope that helps clear some of this thought process up.

Im thrilled with JT as a 50 plus point scorer. Id be thrilled if Pirri produced 50 points for us as well. 50 points is a pretty good season for anyone making 6 mill or less in this league.

 

[silverfish]

Im thrilled with JT as a 50 plus point scorer. Id be thrilled if Pirri produced 50 points for us as well. 50 points is a pretty good season for anyone making 6 mill or less in this league.

Of course, but will he do it consistently? Maybe, maybe not. I tend to not think so, and that earns me the Miller hater badge.

I don't think Pirri will ever record 50 points in an NHL season. Ever. He very well may hit 20 goals again, but if he ever hits 50 points, I'd be absolutely, positively, shocked.

 

[True Blue]

Goals per 60:
With Pirri: 6.94
Without Pirri: 4.63

Shot attempts per 60:
With Pirri: 114.32
Without Pirri: 74.4

If you took the Rangers metrics above with Pirri on the ice and compared them to a league ranking for each team?

114.32 shot attempts per 60 would be first in the league by 12 attempts. Philadelphia is in 1st right now with 102.76.

6.94 goals for per 60 would be good for 7th in the league.

You are listing one of the issues that stats like /60 have. You are trying to equalize by looking at the world with blinders on. Pirri scored 4 goals in this first 9 games. He has then scored 4 in his next 48. No weight has been given to what his play has looked like over the majority of the season as you attempt to equalize it per 60. Likewise, no weight is being given to the fact that he scored half of his goals at a time where the Rangers roared out of the gate, before the NHL made an adjustment to them.

To blow this out even more, let's say that he scored all of his goals in his very first game and has not touched the net since. Would you still be showing stats that attempt to show how much better they are with him?

The fact of the matter is that aside from a hot start by both him and the team, and has barely made an impact.

But what I believe, is that you're just looking for things to complain about that straight up are not there. You can bash Pirri for his 5v5 play this year, he hasn't been good enough, but to complain about his 5v4 time? That's an argument that has no business being made.

Offering views on a middling player that is being regarded as much more important than he really is, is a view and an opinion. Which is why most of us are here at last check.

Pirri scored 40% of his power play goals in his first 7 games. Since then he has scored about on PP goal per month. Not sure how one can state that there is no argument to be made.

 

[silverfish]

You are listing one of the issues that stats like /60 have. You are trying to equalize by looking at the world with blinders on. Pirri scored 4 goals in this first 9 games. He has then scored 4 in his next 48. No weight has been given to what his play has looked like over the majority of the season as you attempt to equalize it per 60. Likewise, no weight is being given to the fact that he scored half of his goals at a time where the Rangers roared out of the gate, before the NHL made an adjustment to them.

To blow this out even more, let's say that he scored all of his goals in his very first game and has not touched the net since. Would you still be showing stats that attempt to show how much better they are with him?

The fact of the matter is that aside from a hot start by both him and the team, and has barely made an impact.

Offering views on a middling player that is being regarded as much more important than he really is, is a view and an opinion. Which is why most of us are here at last check.

Pirri scored 40% of his power play goals in his first 7 games. Since then he has scored about on PP goal per month. Not sure how one can state that there is no argument to be made.

Because I'm looking at the season as a whole, and you're folding the season into bits and pieces to build your narrative.

If you only look at 2017 data, like you want to, Pirri is on the ice for 94.99 shots per 60. 4th among forwards. He leads the team in individual shot attempts per 60 with 37. Zuccarello is 2nd on the team in this timeframe with 26. (still Corisca. Still 5v4)

The entire PP has been in complete **** mode since 2017. At least Pirri is still shooting the puck.

However, your initial contention, the main reason that I jumped into this thread again, is because you didn't think Pirri shoots enough on the PP. Do you still believe that?

 

[Thirty One]

Pirri scored 40% of his power play goals in his first 7 games. Since then he has scored about on PP goal per month. Not sure how one can state that there is no argument to be made.

Last season, a powerplay goal per month would be the difference between:
30th and 21st ranked powerplay
17th and 7th ranked powerplay
7th and 1st ranked powerplay

So even if removing the games which he was the most successful was reasonable, I'm not sure I'd be so quick to discount a goal per month.

 

[silverfish]

Last season, a powerplay goal per month would be the difference between:
30th and 21st ranked powerplay
17th and 7th ranked powerplay
7th and 1st ranked powerplay

So even if removing the games which he was the most successful was reasonable, I'm not sure I'd be so quick to discount a goal per month.

Preach.

 

[NickyFotiu]

Of course, but will he do it consistently? Maybe, maybe not. I tend to not think so, and that earns me the Miller hater badge.

I don't think Pirri will ever record 50 points in an NHL season. Ever. He very well may hit 20 goals again, but if he ever hits 50 points, I'd be absolutely, positively, shocked.

Is it possible that you may have a small bias against JT and for Pirri?

You are big on statistics but you seem to heavily disregard some of the most obvious stats in this regard (JT 50 points in 70 games & Pirri 18 points in 57 games).

 

[silverfish]

Is it possible that you may have a small bias against JT and for Pirri?

You are big on statistics but you seem to heavily disregard some of the most obvious stats in this regard (JT 50 points in 70 games & Pirri 18 points in 57 games).

Did we not just cover this in full? I'm also uncertain why this is your reply to the post you quoted, where I say I'm not sure if JT will be a *consistent* 50 point guy, and I don't think Pirri will ever come close to 50 points...

Am I missing something?

 

[Thirty One]

Did we not just cover this in full? I'm also uncertain why this is your reply to the post you quoted, where I say I'm not sure if JT will be a *consistent* 50 point guy, and I don't think Pirri will ever come close to 50 points...

Am I missing something?

You still haven't answered the question. Why do you think Pirri is so much better than Miller?

 

[silverfish]

You still haven't answered the question. Why do you think Pirri is so much better than Miller?

I liked you better when you left HF.

That's a lie. I'm so glad you're back.

 

[Synergy27]

Last season, a powerplay goal per month would be the difference between:
30th and 21st ranked powerplay
17th and 7th ranked powerplay
7th and 1st ranked powerplay

So even if removing the games which he was the most successful was reasonable, I'm not sure I'd be so quick to discount a goal per month.

Devil's advocate, you can also interpret that as the difference between the 30th and 21st ranked PP (and the other sets you mentioned) is small/insignificant, and clearly subject to chance given how randomly distributed goals are.

 

[NickyFotiu]

Did we not just cover this in full? I'm also uncertain why this is your reply to the post you quoted, where I say I'm not sure if JT will be a *consistent* 50 point guy, and I don't think Pirri will ever come close to 50 points...

Am I missing something?

I did not think your post was a definitive answer to my lingering question. Maybe I should have been more clear previously. I'm not asking you about other people's perceptions of your posts. I'm asking you your honest feelings about the two players. I'm asking you if it is possible that you have a small positive bias towards Pirri or a small negative bias against JT?

 

[silverfish]

I did not think your post was a definitive answer to my lingering question. Maybe I should have been more clear previously. I'm not asking you about other people's perceptions of your posts. I'm asking you your honest feelings about the two players. I'm asking you if it is possible that you have a small positive bias towards Pirri or a small negative bias against JT?

I think my approach to both of these players is aligned more in (my perceived) reality than taking an approach one way or another, positive or negative. I'm less bullish on JT than most, which I guess is perceived as being negative. I'm more bullish on Pirri than most, which I guess is perceived as being positive.

Where my "Miller hater" status opens up is when people in ever off-season deem him a guaranteed 60 point guy, well, I don't buy that. Does that make me "negative"? Maybe. But, I like to believe it's "real".

Not sure why this isn't a sufficient answer?

The only reason this is a question is because of how other people perceive my posts.

 

[NickyFotiu]

Not sure why this isn't a sufficient answer?

The only reason this is a question is because of how other people perceive my posts.

I do not want to beat a dead horse. Other people's perceptions may or may not align with my own personal bias. I have bias for some players. Its not the end of the world for me to admit that as a fact.

 

[silverfish]

I do not want to beat a dead horse. Other people's perceptions may or may not align with my own personal bias. I have bias for some players. Its not the end of the world for me to admit that as a fact.

I admit no bias.

Perhaps people perceive that a bias exists, but I can assure you I post opinions with carefully thought out analysis. I dropped hours upon hours of research into Miller and Pirri. It's quite possible that I'm wrong. Maybe Miller will be a consistent 50 point guy. Maybe Pirri will never play in the NHL after this season, but I'm not hindered by bias against Miller or for Pirri. I don't care enough on a personal level about either of these guys to develop a bias for or against.

 

[NickyFotiu]

I admit no bias.

Perhaps people perceive that a bias exists, but I can assure you I post opinions with carefully thought out analysis. I dropped hours upon hours of research into Miller and Pirri. It's quite possible that I'm wrong. Maybe Miller will be a consistent 50 point guy. Maybe Pirri will never play in the NHL after this season, but I'm not hindered by bias against Miller or for Pirri. I don't care enough on a personal level about either of these guys to develop a bias for or against.

I admit I do have bias at times. I try to be fair to everyone but I do have bias towards my favorite players.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

He's having a bad year 5v5. No doubt. He's not getting his offense like he used to. Could be an ice-time thing. Could be a quality of teammates thing. Could be a him not fitting in AV's team type thing. I'm sure the response to this will be that "he's bad", but I don't think it's that simple.

Players have bad years. Pirri is not having a "Pirri" 5v5 year scoring-wise right now. Doesn't make the Pirri signing any less savvy today than it was when the Rangers signed him. And next off-season when he gets another NHL contract, or a tryout with a team, it'll be a savvy signing by whichever org grants him that opportunity.

Interestingly enough, it seems like he's generating more quality chances this year than the previous two seasons, he's just not finishing. He's operating 3% lower than his expected unblocked shooting percentage suggests. Normally, he outshoots his expectation. Either way, he's not doing enough to put himself in a position to get a quantity amount of shot attempts off 5v5, and that's the problem.

Is this a regression to the norm season? Bad luck? Who knows. I think to just simply say that Pirri is "bad" is lazy analysis.

At the end of the day, to me, Pirri is a bottom-6 player who scores at the rate of a top-6 player. Unfortunately, if you're getting bottom-6 TOI and teammates, it's a hard thing to keep up. What we're seeing this year is Pirri not keeping that up.

He's just a cheap whatever bottom six player. I mean, he's neither good nor bad. I don't mind Pirri but I think he can easily be replaced. As can almost all but the truly elite bottom six guys. Pirri is a completely one dimensional player. His one dimension is good and valuable (albeit this is seemingly a down year in that regard).

I wouldn't shed a tear if we let him go and I wouldn't raise hell if we kept him.

I'm as ambivalent on him as I am white bread.

 

[silverfish]

He's just a cheap whatever bottom six player. I mean, he's neither good nor bad. I don't mind Pirri but I think he can easily be replaced. As can almost all but the truly elite bottom six guys. Pirri is a completely one dimensional player. His one dimension is good and valuable (albeit this is seemingly a down year in that regard).

I wouldn't shed a tear if we let him go and I wouldn't raise hell if we kept him.

I'm as ambivalent on him as I am white bread.

I don't think there's any reason to feel a different way about Pirri. My only gripe right now is that Glass is in the lineup, and Pirri is not. And Vesey, to a certain extent, but that's more explainable than 15.

 

[True Blue]

Because I'm looking at the season as a whole, and you're folding the season into bits and pieces to build your narrative.

Because looking at it solely through the per 60 stats completely distorts what is really happening. Efforts to "normalize" Pirri's effect by equalizing this leaves out context. Again, he scored 40% in his first 7 games. Since then, he has been largely a factor on the ice. ES or PP.

If you only look at 2017 data, like you want to, Pirri is on the ice for 94.99 shots per 60. 4th among forwards. He leads the team in individual shot attempts per 60 with 37. Zuccarello is 2nd on the team in this timeframe with 26. (still Corisca. Still 5v4)

This is where the stats distort the truth. Since November rolled around, he has 3 PP goals. Point out whatever stats you want, but what I see is someone who has hardly been a factor.

However, your initial contention, the main reason that I jumped into this thread again, is because you didn't think Pirri shoots enough on the PP. Do you still believe that?

My contention is that if the only thing that he is good for is his shot, then he has no place in the line up as clearly something is not working for him. Or said differently, it does not really matter if it is him or Glass in the lineup. At least not right now.

 

[silverfish]

Because looking at it solely through the per 60 stats completely distorts what is really happening. Efforts to "normalize" Pirri's effect by equalizing this leaves out context. Again, he scored 40% in his first 7 games. Since then, he has been largely a factor on the ice. ES or PP.

This is where the stats distort the truth. Since November rolled around, he has 3 PP goals. Point out whatever stats you want, but what I see is someone who has hardly been a factor.

My contention is that if the only thing that he is good for is his shot, then he has no place in the line up as clearly something is not working for him.

I'm not distorting anything, I'm just using different metrics than you are. I'm leaning towards shots while Pirri is on the ice, goals while Pirri is on the ice, and individual shot attempts, and I'm normalizing them on a per 60 value to level the playing field with teammates of his who may get more or less PP time, and then comparing him to his teammates.

You're using individual goals on a specific timeframe conducive to your interests.

Just two different methods of analysis is all. You think my methods are flawed, I think your methods are flawed.

Let's go ahead and call it, yeah? Cool.

 

[True Blue]

Just two different methods of analysis is all. You think my methods are flawed, I think your methods are flawed.

Let's go ahead and call it, yeah? Cool.

Yeah, that's about where we're at. Good enough.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

I don't think there's any reason to feel a different way about Pirri. My only gripe right now is that Glass is in the lineup, and Pirri is not. And Vesey, to a certain extent, but that's more explainable than 15.

Glass is fine every few games. He should never be a constant, though.

Vesey should get playing time over both, but I'm fine if he sits a game or so as well.

 

[NickyFotiu]

I was wondering if he might be 4th line center insurance but looks like Brandon is signing with the team that Kevin Klein signed with.

http://www.tio.ch/News/Sport/Hockey/1155206/Brandon-Pirri-ai-Lions

 

[trilobyte]

Glass is more likely to make a positive difference in a game than Brandon Pirri.
I never thought of him much, other than now and then realizing he was still a Ranger and knowing that that would change, and now it has.
Good luck to Brandon Pirri, but he did not register high enough to even be a blip as a Ranger.
He was essentially useless.

 

[Machinehead]

Glass is more likely to make a positive difference in a game than Brandon Pirri.