Confirmed with Link: Brady Skjei re-signed [6 years, $5.25MM AAV]

[SA16]

With this mindset you'll never lock any player on a favourable term.

No. I'd sign Hayes longterm.

If you had to assign percentage likelihood that Skjei would regress, stay the same or improve what would it be? Would 20%-50%-30% be reasonable? So would you structure a contract based on 80% likelihood or 20%?

I'd consider the likelihood that Skjei improves to the point he will require a 7M+ AAV to be essentially zero therefore I'd have preferred to bridge him to delay the decision and would be prepared to give him ~6 on a longterm deal a couple of years from now if he remains a quality defender. So basically I see very little chance you'd have to pay significantly more from him, the likely scenario where you pay him the same amount he just got (bumped up slightly for cap inflation and less RFA years), and then some chance that he falls off and isn't worth this amount (this being more likely than the improving tremendously tier). Pretty much all the top paid defensman are guys who have put up 50+ points or so and I don't see him doing that.

 

[bl02]

Very fair deal for both sides. You have to have faith in Skjei. He's proven he can play and play in tough environment like the 2016 and 2017 playoffs. He has the tools and can contribute now and 3/4 years from now when hopefully the team will really be competing for something special again.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

No, I'm very on team "lock them up early", but I see far more downside than upside with this contract.

Yea because most 3rd year defensemen who already average top pair minutes, and who have already shown very good potential tend to get worse at the ripe age of 24. Far more downside.

 

[haveandare]

Have people just completely forgotten his rookie season? Last year wasn’t good for him or almost anyone else, including McDonagh. That’s half of Skjei’s career. The half before that he scored 39 points as a rookie and was one of our best d men right up until he was “lost on the bench” and we were eliminated.

In McDonagh’s rookie year he scored 4 more pints than Skjei did in his, and that point total is still McD’s career high. And correct me if I’m wrong but didn’t he get similar second pairing usage his first year?

I’m not saying he is or will be McDonagh but people acting like the two were wildly different at this stage in their careers are only thinking of McDs highs and Skjeis lows

 

[Rempe73]

Slavin got $5.3M for 7.

Very similar player to Skjei. Although Slavin is a little better defensively and Skjei is a little better offensively.

 

[SA16]

Have people just completely forgotten his rookie season? Last year wasn’t good for him or almost anyone else, including McDonagh. That’s half of Skjei’s career. The half before that he scored 39 points as a rookie and was one of our best d men right up until he was “lost on the bench” and we were eliminated.

In McDonagh’s rookie year he scored 4 more pints than Skjei did in his, and that point total is still McD’s career high. And correct me if I’m wrong but didn’t he get similar second pairing usage his first year?

I’m not saying he is or will be McDonagh but people acting like the two were wildly different at this stage in their careers are only thinking of McDs highs and Skjeis lows

Yea but that was the year he had a higher secondary assist rate than guys like Karlsson, Subban, Weber (can't remember the exact list I posted it a couple of weeks ago) have ever had in any single season onf their entire careers. Predictably that rate did not carry through to his second year. Those 39 points were a fluke and not indicative of his actual offense.

 

[bl02]

Have people just completely forgotten his rookie season? Last year wasn’t good for him or almost anyone else, including McDonagh. That’s half of Skjei’s career. The half before that he scored 39 points as a rookie and was one of our best d men right up until he was “lost on the bench” and we were eliminated.

In McDonagh’s rookie year he scored 4 more pints than Skjei did in his, and that point total is still McD’s career high. And correct me if I’m wrong but didn’t he get similar second pairing usage his first year?

I’m not saying he is or will be McDonagh but people acting like the two were wildly different at this stage in their careers are only thinking of McDs highs and Skjeis lows

Also some conveniently forget he was probably the best defenseman on the ice for the 2017 playoffs in two very intense playoff rounds.

 

[gravey9]

Leaving the $ aside, I do like the term a lot. For the past 5-6 years we've tended towards bridge deals with our young RFAs. And that made sense because we were a contending team with a core that was earning the bulk of the $. We needed to delay the paydays for younger players as long as possible so we could contend and have some flexibility to do so. Now that we're rebuilding, we need focus on long term stability --- and part 1 of that is to build and solidify the future of our D.

From that standpoint, the term on this deal makes sense. There is absolutely a big risk in this deal as Brady has to show consistency moving forward. And it's a lot of money for someone whose sophomore season was uneven.

I hope the new D-zone system under Quinn helps Brady grow quietly and ultimately asks less of Brady and our younger D. Let them develop at the NHL level with a simplified system and they have a better chance of flourishing, much in the same way that G, Staal, Sauer and McD flourished under Torts. If the system limits the exposure of our young D, this deal will look amazing within 2-3 years. To me, this deal is putting almost more faith in the bigger rebuild plan and in Quinn than in Brady.

 

[Rempe73]

Overpayment, would have rather bridged him.

Now it doesn't look amazing (and we don't need it to, since we are rebuilding and have cap space), but a few years from now, this will be a steal.

 

[SA16]

So his 39 points on a bad team last year were a fluke? I'm assuming you mean his rookie season of 42 points were a fluke? Also the exceptionally high level he played at in the playoffs scoring almost .5 points per game were a fluke?

Huh? He scored 39 points his rookie year and then 25 points his last year.

And yes. The 39 was a fluke.

 

[haveandare]

Yea but that was the year he had a higher secondary assist rate than guys like Karlsson, Subban, Weber (can't remember the exact list I posted it a couple of weeks ago) have ever had in any single season onf their entire careers. Predictably that rate did not carry through to his second year. Those 39 points were a fluke and not indicative of his actual offense.

Predictably he was worse when the entire team fell apart. We can’t say with any authority what is or isn’t a fluke with a sample size of two seasons, one of which was bad for literally everyone on the team

 

[LeetchisGod]

Also some conveniently forget he was probably the best defenseman on the ice for the 2017 playoffs in two very intense playoff rounds.

The talent is there. Skjei hasn't hit his ceiling yet.

 

[Thirty One]

So his 39 points on a bad team last year were a fluke? I'm assuming you mean his rookie season of 42 points were a fluke? Also the exceptionally high level he played at in the playoffs scoring almost .5 points per game were a fluke?

My main concern with these numbers is that they are made up.

 

[SA16]

Predictably he was worse when the entire team fell apart. We can’t say with any authority what is or isn’t a fluke with a sample size of two seasons, one of which was bad for literally everyone on the team

I mean it's pretty fair to say that if he had a higher secondary assist rate than Klingberg, Karlsson, Hedman, Josi, Doughty (and many others) have ever had in any single season of their entire career that that rate is an outlier and should not be expected to continue.

 

[Tawnos]

I would think this was too much money if I didn’t think it was pretty standard 2nd pairing money.

 

[bl02]

Huh? He scored 39 points his rookie year and then 25 points his last year.

And yes. The 39 was a fluke.

my bad. was 39. Did you see him throughout the 2017 playoffs? 39 points probably not a common number he would hit but I could see him scoring between 30-35 and playing a strong mobile defense.

 

[haohmaru]

Good deal for both sides. Lucky for us he didn't take a step forward last year and had the 2nd year jinx going. Let's see if he fit the bill as a 1 LD. I think he can take that step now that he's out of McDonagh's shadow (who, IMHO, wasn't playing like a 1D for at least the last year and a half) and the sophmore blues are behind him.

Skjei/Shatty
Staal/Smith
Claesson/Pionk (or ADA)

It's definitely better than the 6D we finished the year with. Given a decent system to play under with the new coach and some of our young forwards coming up it could be a good year to watch without a lot of expectation.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

This is fine.

Not great, not bad. Hopefully he can take a step forward and solidify himself as a top-4 defenseman.

 

[bl02]

My main concern with these numbers is that they are made up.

My bad was looking up the numbers while multitasking. it is 25 last year 39 his rookie year. still very impressive numbers and IMO will not regress in the future. we shall see.

 

[haveandare]

I mean it's pretty fair to say that if he had a higher secondary assist rate than Klingberg, Karlsson, Hedman, Josi, Doughty (and many others) have ever had in any single season of their entire career that that rate is an outlier and should not be expected to continue.

Do you honestly not think he could have gotten 10 more points last year if the team was better than an absolute dumpster fire?

 

[kovazub94]

No. I'd sign Hayes longterm.



I'd consider the likelihood that Skjei improves to the point he will require a 7M+ AAV to be essentially zero therefore I'd have preferred to bridge him to delay the decision and would be prepared to give him ~6 on a longterm deal a couple of years from now if he remains a quality defender. So basically I see very little chance you'd have to pay significantly more from him, the likely scenario where you pay him the same amount he just got (bumped up slightly for cap inflation and less RFA years), and then some chance that he falls off and isn't worth this amount (this being more likely than the improving tremendously tier). Pretty much all the top paid defensman are guys who have put up 50+ points or so and I don't see him doing that.

I address it all in my earlier post and you’re silent in supporting your position. Again, even if you think that Skjei is likely to stay as is, wouldn’t you rather spend cap space now or later?

Edit: btw, I disagree with your assumption that NYR would be able to sign Skjei to a reasonable or fair value deal when he became UFA in three years. Group 3 are overpaid almost by definition because there’s always a team or two willing to go above generally perceived fair value.

 

[SA16]

my bad. was 39. Did you see him throughout the 2017 playoffs? 39 points probably not a common number he would hit but I could see him scoring between 30-35 and playing a strong mobile defense.

Well there you go then. Obviously contracts are going up with the cap and such but of the 19 defenseman who currently make 6M or more every single out of them outside of Ekblad, Phaneuf, Erik Johnson, Boychuk had been putting up 40+ point seasons when they signed their deals. And of those three Johnson had two 39 point seasons, Ekblad had a 39 point season as an 18 year old rookie (and both of those had the reputation from being a former 1 ovr), and the Phaneuf/Boychuk contract was known to be awful instantly. So I really don't see how he would be getting so much more money than he just got by waiting a couple of years.

 

[haohmaru]

Do you honestly not think he could have gotten 10 more points last year if the team was better than an absolute dumpster fire?

He would've gotten 10 more if Shattenkirk's knee didn't take a dump for sure.

 

[SA16]

Do you honestly not think he could have gotten 10 more points last year if the team was better than an absolute dumpster fire?

I find this argument similar to the one saying Connor McDavid could have had x many more points if the Oilers PP was better. Maybe he's part of the problem?

Additionally the Rangers offense last year was basically league average. They were 21/31 in goals per 60 which is 0.10 out of 16th. The offense wasn't awful. The defensive play was.

I address it all in my earlier post and you’re silent in supporting your position. Again, even if you think that Skjei is likely to stay as is, wouldn’t you rather spend cap space now or later?

It's obviously better to spend the space now when the team isn't in a cap crunch and doesn't need the space. But, as I've said, I'd have preferred to be cautious and wait an extra two years and pay him an extra 1M per/year or so then if he remains the same than take the risk anything negative happens because I see almost no chance that he vastly improves to the point he would be worth more. Hopefully I'm wrong and he does.

 

[haveandare]

I find this argument similar to the one saying Connor McDavid could have had x many more points if the Oilers PP was better. Maybe he's part of the problem?

Additionally the Rangers offense last year was basically league average. They were 21/31 in goals per 60 which is 0.10 out of 16th. The offense wasn't awful. The defensive play was.

When he has extra points he’s not part of the reason for it, it’s gotta be a fluke.

When he has low points it’s gotta he totally on him.