Speculation: Botterill and Slow Cooking

[Chainshot]

So I think it’s fair to say that with Jason’s three seasons of work, his commentary about proper development and earned ice time was spurious, his attempts to install veteran placeholders or augment their roster has been poor and almost none of the players that were in Rochester at the outset of this build process matured into steady NHL talent.

 

[Gabrielor]

It’s depressing to think about Rochester, because, despite their record and success, who’s currently developing there that’ll have any NHL impact?

Mittelstadt, Borgen, Luukkonen, and possibly Bryson and Murray as longshots.

Thompson’s injury was terrible timing, Asplund should be there still, but injuries keep bringing him here, and Pilut should be here full time.

And who’s on deck to go into Rochester? Samuelsson and Pekar probably go next year. Does anyone feel great about Davidsson and Laaksonen right now? Johnson’s a few years away; Cozens probably skips, rightly or wrongly, and Ruotsalainen is tough to say because of his Finnish contract.

Basically, the idea that Botterill made our pipeline better, or aided our development process, is a myth. He added a few quality non-NHL vets to stabilize Roch that wouldn’t sell out like Cal OReilly. That’s it. It’s now a decently set up factory, but has little/nothing to process.

 

[OkimLom]

3 minutes into this video Lebrun talks about Buffalo - says an ROR or Reinhart could be traded but probably only if a team was willing to overpay, Botterill not looking to trade them.

Insider Trading: Which coaches are on the hot seat?

Just this from April 3rd 2018...Not looking to trade them, but much changes in those 4 months I guess. Also, that signing bonus must've sneaked up on him on July 1st to call Armstrong last minute.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I read this whole thread thinking it was now.

Duh....

 

[jBuds]

It’s depressing to think about Rochester, because, despite their record and success, who’s currently developing there that’ll have any NHL impact?

Mittelstadt, Borgen, Luukkonen, and possibly Bryson and Murray as longshots.

Thompson’s injury was terrible timing, Asplund should be there still, but injuries keep bringing him here, and Pilut should be here full time.

And who’s on deck to go into Rochester? Samuelsson and Pekar probably go next year. Does anyone feel great about Davidsson and Laaksonen right now? Johnson’s a few years away; Cozens probably skips, rightly or wrongly, and Ruotsalainen is tough to say because of his Finnish contract.

Basically, the idea that Botterill made our pipeline better, or aided our development process, is a myth. He added a few quality non-NHL vets to stabilize Roch that wouldn’t sell out like Cal OReilly. That’s it. It’s now a decently set up factory, but has little/nothing to process.

Ask Pierre, he teed it up nicely for us during the Detroit game

 

[joshjull]

It’s depressing to think about Rochester, because, despite their record and success, who’s currently developing there that’ll have any NHL impact?

Mittelstadt, Borgen, Luukkonen, and possibly Bryson and Murray as longshots.

Thompson’s injury was terrible timing, Asplund should be there still, but injuries keep bringing him here, and Pilut should be here full time.

And who’s on deck to go into Rochester? Samuelsson and Pekar probably go next year. Does anyone feel great about Davidsson and Laaksonen right now? Johnson’s a few years away; Cozens probably skips, rightly or wrongly, and Ruotsalainen is tough to say because of his Finnish contract.

Basically, the idea that Botterill made our pipeline better, or aided our development process, is a myth. He added a few quality non-NHL vets to stabilize Roch that wouldn’t sell out like Cal OReilly. That’s it. It’s now a decently set up factory, but has little/nothing to process.

This is a bad take.

Most draft picks, outside the top of the 1st round, take 2 years in juniors or 2-3 years in college/Europe before they go pro/come to North America, let alone play in the NHL.

The draft picks who should have been ready this year and next are Murray picks. Since we are 6 season out from his first draft and 4 seasons out from his last. That’s right in the development wheelhouse of picks post draft spending 2yrs in juniors/ 2-3 college/Europe and then developing for a year or so in AHL.

We have exactly one draft from Botts (2017) where there can be realistic expectations of players going pro, not necessarily the NHL, outside of the 1st round. UPL and Bryson are first year pros from the 2017 draft. Laaksonen and Davidson not being here yet is not unusual. Next season Pekar, and possibly Samuelsson may be going pro in their D+3 seasons from the 2018 draft. We also have Pilut and R2 as UDFA signings in the mix. Obviously Dahlin and Mitts are high picks with very different results.

Building up options through the draft and UDFA signings will take time. Let’s talk again in a few years to see what we have via Botts.

 

[Gabrielor]

This is a bad take.

Most draft picks, outside the top of the 1st round, take 2 years in juniors or 2-3 years in college/Europe before they go pro/come to North America, let alone play in the NHL.

The draft picks who should have been ready this year and next are Murray picks. Since we are 6 season out from his first draft and 4 seasons out from his last. That’s right in the development wheelhouse of picks post draft spending 2yrs in juniors/ 2-3 college/Europe and then developing for a year or so in AHL.

We have exactly one draft from Botts (2017) where there can be realistic expectations of players going pro, not necessarily the NHL, outside of the 1st round. UPL and Bryson are first year pros from the 2017 draft. Laaksonen and Davidson not being here yet is not unusual. Next season Pekar, and possibly Samuelsson may be going pro in their D+3 seasons from the 2018 draft. We also have Pilut and R2 as UDFA signings in the mix. Obviously Dahlin and Mitts are high picks with very different results.

Building up options through the draft and UDFA signings will take time. Let’s talk again in a few years to see what we have via Botts.

It's a bad take...because Botterill needs more time to prove he's fixed it...

Yeah, I think this one answers itself...

 

[joshjull]

It's a bad take...because Botterill needs more time to prove he's fixed it...

Yeah, I think this one answers itself...

Its a bad take because it’s completely devoid of a basic understanding of normal draftee development time lines. Its also devoid of any understanding of when to realistically expect drafted players to make an impact at the NHL level.

But since it involves Botts, anything other than an all out rant against him is unacceptable.

 

[Gabrielor]

Its a bad take because it’s completely devoid of a basic understanding of normal draftee development time lines. Its also devoid of any understanding of when to realistically expect drafted players to make an impact at the NHL level.

But since it involves Botts, anything other than an all out rant against him is unacceptable.

I guess you missed the part of your own post where you largely agreed with me.

 

[Chainshot]

It is the inconsistencies in the method that are frustrating. They said they would have veterans in place that younger players could displace and yet played several younger players in Mittelstadt and Thompson who were in way over their heads. The point that they had no one else was made during Mitts' rookie year, but they also had O'Regan on the farm who even at Botterill's own admission was someone they wanted to get a look at in the NHL and did not.

Flipping that coin over, we also have seen where younger players have played well and still come out of the lineup for vets who have not, though that has been mostly been on defense. And of course that has reached a head this year with the absolute glut of defensemen and not enough cycles for almost everyone which is a separate issue.

Then there is the matter of the pipeline. I've mentioned in different years' draft threads that one way to push feeder players into the system is to use later round picks on OA's so that they get people percolating up through the system a bit faster. The one area they seemed to tap in every draft for seemingly forever is having at least one per draft. Taking someone like Gareffa last year say is a OA2 last draft who could be in Rochester actually giving them a high-offense wing prospect to work on. There are some others, both OA/OA2's and UDFA's. It's some unconventional thinking to get better there and that is something that they are stymied by the flops of the previous GM's.

I think Botts might want to throw out his recipe card on this one.

 

[TehDoak]

So, in a sense, most people's understanding of how to slow cook a meal is:

1) Prep a few foods before starting
2) Put everything in slow cooker
3) Come back when everything is done

It's probably the most accurate way to describe his GM-ing style. He does a few things during the summer, puts a lid on it, and hopes it all turns out ok by the trade deadline.

 

[OkimLom]

So, in a sense, most people's understanding of how to slow cook a meal is:

1) Prep a few foods before starting
2) Put everything in slow cooker
3) Come back when everything is done

It's probably the most accurate way to describe his GM-ing style. He does a few things during the summer, puts a lid on it, and hopes it all turns out ok by the trade deadline.

well with the right ingredients together, that could create a very tasty meal. But you have to be creative and have an understanding on how to build it up.

 

[joshjull]

I guess you missed the part of your own post where you largely agreed with me.

I didn’t miss it because it didn’t happen. You asserted a few things I disagreed with.

1) That its a myth Botts made the pipeline better. Its not a myth at all.

Using only players they drafted or signed as UDFA (so no Tage or Joker)

Murray was fired April 2017. At the time we had

-Nothing in Rochester or the system generally to make the jump to NHL.
-Only Guhle (drafted) and CJ Smith (recently signed UDFA) as rookies heading to Rochester with a returning Nelson. Guys like Olofsson, Asplund, Fitzgerald, Borgen were a year or two away from going pro/coming to NA. All would be considered long shots at the time.

April 2020 will be the same time frame in Botts tenure to Murray’s firing.

-Guys who could help next season in NHL: Pilut, Cozens and Mitts with longer shots like Bryson, Pekar and R2.
- Guys starting in AHL or at least going pro/coming to NA: up to all 3 of the NHL long shots, UPL, Samuelsson. Davidsson and Laaksonen might be brought over. Not sure on their contract status or what the organization thinks about them.

The pipeline also has highly touted prospects in Johnson and Portillo. Plus weird and fun long shot Rousek.

Its pretty obvious Botts did a good job starting to refill the pipeline. He was certainly much more successful than Murray.

2) That we don’t have a ton of guys in Rochester ready to step in next season. Thats true but the lions share of blame for that falls on Murray. Yet you seem to want to blame Botts for something he had no control over (the 25 picks made in 2014, 2015 and 2016).

3) I also think you’re very much jumping the gun on who will or won’t contribute in the NHL. Its too early to say with many of Botts picks/UDFAs. You’re also off the mark about Bryson. He’s not remotely in the same category as Murray.

4) You seem to be saying Rochester = the pipeline. Its part of it but certainly not the entire thing. If any of Cozens, R2 or Pekar make the team and contribute next year. Thats a credit to the pipeline producing a player we need.

5) That Rochester hasn’t helped anyone develop. Olofsson, Ullmark and Pilut are successes. Tage got his game on track there. Unfortunately he was injured before we could see the results. Mitts is there now to work on his game.


This is one of the few areas I feel safe saying Botts did good. How good will be known in a few years.

 

[Zman5778]

well with the right ingredients together, that could create a very tasty meal. But you have to be creative and have an understanding on how to build it up.

Seems to me that Botts is trying to make a pot roast by using filet mignon submerged in an entire bottle of the cheapest white wine one could get and also adding peanut butter and marshmallows.

 

[Zman5778]

5) That Rochester hasn’t helped anyone develop. Olofsson, Ullmark and Pilut are successes. Tage got his game on track there. Unfortunately he was injured before we could see the results. Mitts is there now to work on his game.

I'd add Asplund to the mix too. Rochester helped refine his game some. He's going to be an NHLer in some capacity...more than likely next year.

 

[joshjull]

I'd add Asplund to the mix too. Rochester helped refine his game some. He's going to be an NHLer in some capacity...more than likely next year.

Good point. I forgot him.

 

[brian_griffin]

One might counter that 80-90% of Pilut’s, Olofsson’s, and Asplund’s development was in the SEL/SHL.

Ullmark IMO benefitted more than the others in Rochester.

Who will be the first American / Canadian drafted by Murray / Botterill outside the first round and slow-cooked in juniors/college then Rochester to make it and stay in BUF ??? Am I forgetting someone?

 

[Gabrielor]

I didn’t miss it because it didn’t happen. You asserted a few things I disagreed with.

1) That its a myth Botts made the pipeline better. Its not a myth at all.

Using only players they drafted or signed as UDFA (so no Tage or Joker)

Murray was fired April 2017. At the time we had

-Nothing in Rochester or the system generally to make the jump to NHL.
-Only Guhle (drafted) and CJ Smith (recently signed UDFA) as rookies heading to Rochester with a returning Nelson. Guys like Olofsson, Asplund, Fitzgerald, Borgen were a year or two away from going pro/coming to NA. All would be considered long shots at the time.

April 2020 will be the same time frame in Botts tenure to Murray’s firing.

-Guys who could help next season in NHL: Pilut, Cozens and Mitts with longer shots like Bryson, Pekar and R2.
- Guys starting in AHL or at least going pro/coming to NA: up to all 3 of the NHL long shots, UPL, Samuelsson. Davidsson and Laaksonen might be brought over. Not sure on their contract status or what the organization thinks about them.

The pipeline also has highly touted prospects in Johnson and Portillo. Plus weird and fun long shot Rousek.

Its pretty obvious Botts did a good job starting to refill the pipeline. He was certainly much more successful than Murray.

2) That we don’t have a ton of guys in Rochester ready to step in next season. Thats true but the lions share of blame for that falls on Murray. Yet you seem to want to blame Botts for something he had no control over (the 25 picks made in 2014, 2015 and 2016).

3) I also think you’re very much jumping the gun on who will or won’t contribute in the NHL. Its too early to say with many of Botts picks/UDFAs. You’re also off the mark about Bryson. He’s not remotely in the same category as Murray.

4) You seem to be saying Rochester = the pipeline. Its part of it but certainly not the entire thing. If any of Cozens, R2 or Pekar make the team and contribute next year. Thats a credit to the pipeline producing a player we need.

5) That Rochester hasn’t helped anyone develop. Olofsson, Ullmark and Pilut are successes. Tage got his game on track there. Unfortunately he was injured before we could see the results. Mitts is there now to work on his game.


This is one of the few areas I feel safe saying Botts did good. How good will be known in a few years.

Long, and admittedly well-written, but rather than spend the next hour going point-by-point, I’ll just say:

I do have a fundamental problem that the recent Rochester success has largely been statistically produced by career AHLers. Olofsson/Pilut notwithstanding (who also arguably shouldn’t have been in the AHL at all), none of the major contributors to the 3 playoff runs are currently on the Sabres, except Ullmark.

Also, and I’ll take blame, I was talking about pipeline as a process, not the prospect pipeline, when I mentioned pipeline. I take issue with the fact that Rochester’s success largely hasn’t come from prospective NHLers. Which is why when Botterill gets credit for fixing Rochester, I would point to the lack of value produced from that, so far.


(Side note:Man, you sure want to drag Murray into this. Your conclusion seems to be that Botterill outdid Murray, therefore it’s good. Weird.)

 

[slip]

Fun fact: Tim Murray drafted 7 forwards in 2014. That's only one less than Botterill has drafted over 3 entire drafts.

 

[5 Minute Major]

The only thing slow cooking about Botterill is the gray matter between his ears.

 

[joshjull]

Long, and admittedly well-written, but rather than spend the next hour going point-by-point, I’ll just say:

I do have a fundamental problem that the recent Rochester success has largely been statistically produced by career AHLers. Olofsson/Pilut notwithstanding (who also arguably shouldn’t have been in the AHL at all), none of the major contributors to the 3 playoff runs are currently on the Sabres, except Ullmark.

Also, and I’ll take blame, I was talking about pipeline as a process, not the prospect pipeline, when I mentioned pipeline. I take issue with the fact that Rochester’s success largely hasn’t come from prospective NHLers. Which is why when Botterill gets credit for fixing Rochester, I would point to the lack of value produced from that, so far.


(Side note:Man, you sure want to drag Murray into this. Your conclusion seems to be that Botterill outdid Murray, therefore it’s good. Weird.)

Thanks for clarifying your point about the pipeline.

I’ll start with your side note because its the most relevant. The reason we’ve needed so many AHL vets in Rochester the last few years is largely due to Murray’s drafting and trades.

The 2015 and 2016 drafts are the ones that should have produced the young talent making an impact the last couple seasons on the farm. Murray could have made 8 1st and 2nd round picks in those drafts (outside of picking Jack) But he only made 3 picks (Guhle, Nylander and Asplund). He traded away 5 others (2 firsts in 15/ 2 seconds in 15/ 1 second in 16).

I’m not commenting on whether or not he should have made the trades. Just pointing out that if you trade away 5 picks in the first two rounds and not do that great drafting with the other 3 picks. You’re not likely to have much young talent making significant contributions on the farm 3-4 years later. Not unless you hit on a decent amount of lower picks anyway.

 

[1point21Gigawatts]

So I think it’s fair to say that with Jason’s three seasons of work, his commentary about proper development and earned ice time was spurious, his attempts to install veteran placeholders or augment their roster has been poor and almost none of the players that were in Rochester at the outset of this build process matured into steady NHL talent.

Almost posted something similar in another thread, but i think this sums it up perfectly.

When botterill started, it sounded like the plan was to try and pick up reclamation projects and middle six players, while bolstering defense through trades and drafting, all while waiting for the small prospect pool we had to develop. Well, none of the reclamation projects really worked (beaulieu, josefson come to mind) and now our defense is a messy glutton of mediocre to 7th d talent. Worst of all, only Olofsson has proven himself to be a well developed, NHL ready prospect. Pilut is there, but again...that mess on D.

Botterill failed at his initial plan and has yet to formulate any coherent contingency plan. It might not satiate the fans, but it would be nice to know what direction he intends to go in next (preferably towards the unemployment line).

 

[joshjull]

Almost posted something similar in another thread, but i think this sums it up perfectly.

When botterill started, it sounded like the plan was to try and pick up reclamation projects and middle six players, while bolstering defense through trades and drafting, all while waiting for the small prospect pool we had to develop. Well, none of the reclamation projects really worked (beaulieu, josefson come to mind) and now our defense is a messy glutton of mediocre to 7th d talent. Worst of all, only Olofsson has proven himself to be a well developed, NHL ready prospect. Pilut is there, but again...that mess on D.

Botterill failed at his initial plan and has yet to formulate any coherent contingency plan. It might not satiate the fans, but it would be nice to know what direction he intends to go in next (preferably towards the unemployment line).

I agree with the bolded until the underlined. Which is simply not the case. We had no prospect pool to wait on at the time of Murray’s firing/Botts hiring. Botts goal was, and still is, to rebuild the prospect pool with his own moves using the draft, UDFA signings and trades (Joker). On that front he’s done good but not great so far. But he needs to keep building and this is the type of project that takes time.

What I don’t quite understand is posters blaming Botts for decisions Murray made. The guys who should have been breaking into the NHL roster the last couple years would have been Murray picks in their D+3 or D+4 seasons. If we were lucky even a D+2 would break through.

Murray trading away 5 picks in the 1st/2nd rounds of the 2015/2016 drafts was going to have consequences 3-4 seasons later. As was the fact he didn’t draft well with the ones he kept (Guhle, Nylander and Asplund). Thats the primary reason we haven’t developed anyone outside of Olofsson of his picks. We haven’t had much to work with.

 

[1point21Gigawatts]

I agree with the bolded until the underlined. Which is simply not the case. We had no prospect pool to wait on at the time of Murray’s firing/Botts hiring. Botts goal was, and still is, to rebuild the prospect pool with his own moves using the draft, UDFA signings and trades (Joker). On that front he’s done good but not great so far. But he needs to keep building and this is the type of project that takes time.

What I don’t quite understand is posters blaming Botts for decisions Murray made. The guys who should have been breaking into the NHL roster the last couple years would have been Murray picks in their D+3 or D+4 seasons. If we were lucky even a D+2 would break through.

Murray trading away 5 picks in the 1st/2nd rounds of the 2015/2016 drafts was going to have consequences 3-4 seasons later. As was the fact he didn’t draft well with the ones he kept (Guhle, Nylander and Asplund). Thats the primary reason we haven’t developed anyone outside of Olofsson of his picks. We haven’t had much to work with. There was always going to be consequences in the pipeline down the line for those trades and bad draft decisions.

That's a more than fair point. I should clarify that i am not pinning the lack of a quality prospect pool on Botts. If i did, it was unintentional. That said, we still had Olofsson, asplund, Smith, fasching, etc. Those guys, with the exception of Olofsson haven't really panned out (asplund is still on the fence).

The biggeset draft transgression against Botts is Mittelstadt. Not only was that a swing and a miss. It took him a season too long to realize the kid still needed time to develop. At this point, it's a question of whether Mitts will ever be NHL ready. You just can't miss on first round picks like that.

Overall, i agree. It's too soon to really grade Botts on his drafting.

 

[joshjull]

That's a more than fair point. I should clarify that i am not pinning the lack of a quality prospect pool on Botts. If i did, it was unintentional. That said, we still had Olofsson, asplund, Smith, fasching, etc. Those guys, with the exception of Olofsson haven't really panned out (asplund is still on the fence).

The biggeset draft transgression against Botts is Mittelstadt. Not only was that a swing and a miss. It took him a season too long to realize the kid still needed time to develop. At this point, it's a question of whether Mitts will ever be NHL ready. You just can't miss on first round picks like that.

Overall, i agree. It's too soon to really grade Botts on his drafting.

Fair enough on Mitts. I wouldn’t say he is a swing and a miss just yet though. He still has time to get his game on track with Amerks. He started slow down there initially (1 pt in 5gms). He eventually got going. He has 7g 16 pts in 20gms since that slow start and 10pts in his last 11 games. He’s trending in the right direction and needs to keep building on it. Then see what he can do in the AHL playoffs.


Speaking of the AHL playoffs and prospects.

1st AHL playoffs; Mitts, Bryson, Oglevie*, JJ with possibly Cozens, Pekar and R2** in the mix at some point.

2nd AHL playoffs; Asplund and Pilut***
3rd AHL playoffs; CJ Smith

I may have missed someone.

*missed previous year due to injury.
** not 100% sure if he can come over
*** IIRC Pilut played through a shoulder injury in the playoffs last year. Its what lead to his surgery. Don’t remember when it happened specifically though.