Speculation: Botterill and Slow Cooking

[Yatzhee]

This requires a breakdown of the acquisitions of those vets (the reasoning) and a projection of where expectations lay (there is an obvious gulf between the fanbase and GM).

First, the vets.
Moulson wasn't a Botterill acquisition. The situation however, was addressed by him.
Pominville was the price for Scandella.
One year left on that payment. Scans is worth it.
Josefson and Poulliot are 1 year gap fillers, but both are disappointments to be sure.
Nolan was a throw of the dice on picking up energy and grit. Another flop in my opinion, but somewhat necessary given the line up at the time.
O'Reilly under-performing for half a season really hurt the situation as well. And I consider him a veteran.

Yes, the team had a small handful of veteran flops.
Yes, it did buy the kids time to grow and allow Bots to evaluate what he had in Rochester from this 1st wave of incoming prospects.

I didn't expect to make the playoffs this season. But believe it or not, the position Bots has us in, I feel very optimistic about next season.

 

[Chainshot]

I think you have to consider where we were last year. No cap space. No quality in the top 9.
I think next season could be the start of a real system where we have an actual pipeline as well as NHL quality players on the main roster.

The need to turn over roster players was apparent, he took some swings and had mixed results. I want to know how people think it went and what they think he might due based on those hits and misses going into the off-season and roster building for next year.

I'm not in agreement with this statement. There were fringe players or long-shots, but lots of optimism from the fan base about them. They were essentially placeholders to keep the kids down on the farm to develop. In an ideal world, this team would have at least been in the mix for a playoff spot. But you don't fire your coach and GM, turn over your roster, then expect miracles. Botterill has publicly stated that this team is not where they expected it to be, but I don't think he's being 100% honest as where they are is within a predictable range of expectation after what transpired.

That said, we are starting to see a pattern with this team and the hole they put themselves in the first half. The GM has gone on the record and stated there would be major changes this off-season, but I think you can argue the team has responded to that just enough to make his job a little more difficult.

I'm ready for the player grades thread.

Optimism by fans at addressing depth and the possibility of being able to live into the conventional wisdom of development is something to disagree on? By my reading of what you wrote, we're actually aligned. Bringing in vet depth guys (Pouliot, Josefson, Tennyson, even Pominville, Nolan via waivers) was a way of facilitating more structured development. Beaulieu was a gamble and Griffith was the only real long-shot to make the team.

I think the premise of the thread is misguided in its focus. The measure of the success/failure of the development approach is the development/growth (or lack of it) of the youngsters. I get the frustration with the vets , Pouliot in particular. But I'd rather see the youngsters developed at their own pace and not rushed because the vets aren't cutting it. We needed a reset with our development approach. It was going to take placeholder vets to fill spots as the reset took place.

My focus is to have a conversation about what worked and didn't and what Botterill may or may not do this summer.

Nelson, Guhle, CJ Smith, Ullmark , Bailey and Baptiste took steps forward in their growth as players. ranging from small to huge leaps forward. Because of that growth we now have 6 legit in-house options for the NHL roster next season. That's 6 fewer spots for placeholders to fill.

Four of them seem like they should be locks at the moment (if Nelson is re-signed) with Smith and Bailey as possibles. Even Malone may be in the conversation to replace Josefson in that role with how he's progressed.

The thread isn't a dissection, it's an invite to conversation.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

For the last time; slow cooking is a terrible metaphor. Slow cooked food is mushy and soft. Is that what you want?!

 

[Chainshot]

#stopfoodanalogies2018

Biting commentary I see.

For the last time; slow cooking is a terrible metaphor. Slow cooked food is mushy and soft. Is that what you want?!

Burnt ends are never mushy.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

Biting commentary I see.



Burnt ends are never mushy.

If you advocate some sort of indirect heating method for prospectus I'll rejoin your crusade.

 

[enthusiast]

sous vide the 2018 draft

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

Even barbecued prospectus can be stringy. Second the notion to sous vide, or at least sear and roast.

 

[Djp]

Pretty much.

It's hard to slow cook when the menu is packed full of unattractive and unsellable product.

Someway somehow you have to get talent ahead of the prospects....that might mean rushing some prospects in order to slow cook the prospects behind them.

When I started this post it made sense in my head but I don' think I did a good job explaining it.

Point is.... having vet plugs hasn't worked for 3 years.. it's time for a purge and let fresh blood in

In order to slow cook players you need to have established depth and you aren't in a rush to bring people up.

When drafting in the top 10 historically players are in the NHL by year 2 post draft if not in year 1 The only time they see the AHL is if they are exempt from going to the CHL if they don't make it at 18

I understand the desire to have some competition but you still don't need to fill the roster with vet players giving no chance for young kids to compete.

looking ahead to 18/19 season Buffalo looks like:

zxx-Eichel-xxx
ccc-ROR-reinhart
xxx-Mittlestadt-Okposo
xxx-Larsson-xxx

Forwards: Poms, Girgensons, Bailey, Baptiste, fasching, ERod, Wilson (if kept)
waiver exempt: Nylander, Smith, Pu, Aspulund**, Olafsson **, 1st round pick possibly
**-if signed

They could sign/acquire a vet LW or maybe trade for D help with the forwards.

 

[Chainshot]

In order to slow cook players you need to have established depth and you aren't in a rush to bring people up.

When drafting in the top 10 historically players are in the NHL by year 2 post draft if not in year 1 The only time they see the AHL is if they are exempt from going to the CHL if they don't make it at 18

I understand the desire to have some competition but you still don't need to fill the roster with vet players giving no chance for young kids to compete.

looking ahead to 18/19 season Buffalo looks like:

zxx-Eichel-xxx
ccc-ROR-reinhart
xxx-Mittlestadt-Okposo
xxx-Larsson-xxx

Forwards: Poms, Girgensons, Bailey, Baptiste, fasching, ERod, Wilson (if kept)
waiver exempt: Nylander, Smith, Pu, Aspulund**, Olafsson **, 1st round pick possibly
**-if signed

They could sign/acquire a vet LW or maybe trade for D help with the forwards.

Why do you so regularly put things in about keeping Wilson? He's RFA, excellent P/60... what is your reasoning?

 

[GellMann]

Honestly, like Reinhart....Okposo has had a better 2nd half. Still no where near what we signed him for....but markedly better and more noticeable at least offensively.

Don't get me wrong, his play barely equals a 3rd liner right now...but I will give credit where credit is due...

Again, 2 goals and 4 points at even strength in 28 games. He looks horrible and produces horribly, even when Risto, Jack, and ROR get him easy peeper points despite his decade-long snap shot windup.

 

[Moskau]

Buffalo doesn't have a single player in top 50 rookie scoring. For a team that has had 400 draft picks in the last 4 seasons that's terrible. Even very good teams rely on getting some youth into their line-ups on a yearly basis. It's what drives teams forward.

I understand what Botterill was trying to do but I think he went too far in one direction with it. Realistically Baptiste and Bailey didn't knock anyone's socks off in pre-season but the team was terrible and turned out to be a terrible regular season team as well. When Rodrigues broke his hand he should have been replaced by one of those two.

I'm fully on board going full Toronto next season. Get the kids on the team. Most of them will do just as well in the NHL if not better with better teammates.

 

[Fezzy126]

Buffalo doesn't have a single player in top 50 rookie scoring. For a team that has had 400 draft picks in the last 4 seasons that's terrible. Even very good teams rely on getting some youth into their line-ups on a yearly basis. It's what drives teams forward.

I understand what Botterill was trying to do but I think he went too far in one direction with it. Realistically Baptiste and Bailey didn't knock anyone's socks off in pre-season but the team was terrible and turned out to be a terrible regular season team as well. When Rodrigues broke his hand he should have been replaced by one of those two.

I'm fully on board going full Toronto next season. Get the kids on the team. Most of them will do just as well in the NHL if not better with better teammates.

I go back and forth on this topic. Some days I think, oh f*** it, just bring them all up. Then I think about Girgs & McCabe as counterpoints. Would they be different players today if they weren't rushed into the league?

 

[Jim Bob]

It will get really interesting to see how patient Botts is this offseason.

Especially if they do get the 2nd or 3rd OV pick....

 

[pigpen65]

I'm fully on board going full Toronto next season. Get the kids on the team. Most of them will do just as well in the NHL if not better with better teammates.

Just like the first 20 games of 2014. We've come full circle. Time to bring back Regier, apologize, and beg him to fix this f***ing mess. Just tell him not to use the word "suffering" this time around for fear the media and fans will set their hair on fire and run around in hysterics again.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

The problem with allowing terrible vets to persist though is what does it say when they preach culture to the team? There is peril in allowing someone performing like Pouliot on the big club roster without displacement.

I don't think it's a big deal to explain to the younger guys that they're being brought along depending on how THEY play, not depending on how @#$%ty fringe vets play. If you get @#$%ty fringe vets that have the right attitude, I don't think there's a conflict in the message.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

So how do you sell that plan to free agent vets who are worth anything?

They don't have to be worth anything, just bring the right attitude and still want to play in the NHL.

 

[Moskau]

I go back and forth on this topic. Some days I think, oh **** it, just bring them all up. Then I think about Girgs & McCabe as counterpoints. Would they be different players today if they weren't rushed into the league?

Baptiste and Bailey will be on their 4th pro season. Fasching and Nylander their 3rd and I think both of them are players that will produce more in the NHL with better skill around them than they will in the AHL. Hell, stick Nylander on the top line with Eichel for the first 20 games next season and trade him.

 

[Chainshot]

I go back and forth on this topic. Some days I think, oh **** it, just bring them all up. Then I think about Girgs & McCabe as counterpoints. Would they be different players today if they weren't rushed into the league?

True, though the current crop will all have at least two AHL seasons if not three as a backdrop to training camp next fall. The only rush candidate may be Mittelstadt and it remains to be seen if he adapts to the areas he as a youngster is deficient right now to be proficient enough to be a positive right from the opening night next year.

Baptiste seems to have found the every-night energy required to be a pro, using his speed, creating short area puck battles. It'll be interesting to see if Bailey, O'Regan, and even Fasching can turn that corner. Bailey may be close based on recent viewing. I'd love to see O'Regan in a situation similar to Rodrigues as an offensive wing option for a quick centerman as a sample to see where he is at for next fall too.

 

[Icicle]

I think that you've basically created a self-fulfilling prophecy... "look we slow cooked, look their ready now".

Convince me that Casey Nelson, at 25 years old, needed to be "slow cooked". Prove it.

Baptiste and Bailey needed to start a 3rd season in the AHL, in their 5th post draft year, at 22 years old? Why?

We didn't need to sacrifice a season, to re-set the development pipeline... it didn't need to be one or the other. Botts failed.

They didn’t really. They were called up right away, got injured half the season, then spent the time after healing in Buffalo. Can’t hold those things against Botterill

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

It’s so hard to tell what the development sweet spot is...everyone’s development curve could be drastically different. Players who are amazing in the minors often turn out to be a dud in the NHL, and then you have nobody’s like Klingberg who become elite once they hit the NHL.

I really think you need to customize your strategy for each player, and not do a blanket approach one way or the other.

 

[Jame]

It will get really interesting to see how patient Botts is this offseason.

Especially if they do get the 2nd or 3rd OV pick....

This is literally the worst time to be impatient... I hate the idea of subtracting from the core, before a proper team has been built around it.

 

[Jame]

It’s so hard to tell what the development sweet spot is...everyone’s development curve could be drastically different. Players who are amazing in the minors often turn out to be a dud in the NHL, and then you have nobody’s like Klingberg who become elite once they hit the NHL.

Which is why blanket approaches like the "slow cook", are stupid.

I really think you need to customize your strategy for each player, and not do a blanket approach one way or the other.

yes... exactly what I've advocated.

 

[AustonsNostrils]

It will get really interesting to see how patient Botts is this offseason.

Especially if they do get the 2nd or 3rd OV pick....

Can anybody copy n paste the excerpt from Lebrun's article about Botterill and the Sabres?

I've been saying it, this guy is more competitive and emotional than people thought, look at my new avatar. This board is going to explode when trades go down because I think big names are leaving.

 

[struckbyaparkedcar]

This is literally the worst time to be impatient... I hate the idea of subtracting from the core, before a proper team has been built around it.

Yup, the season after you and your dipshit coaching hire has atrophied player value is the time to be aggressive.

 

[Jim Bob]

Can anybody copy n paste the excerpt from Lebrun's article about Botterill and the Sabres?

I've been saying it, this guy is more competitive and emotional than people thought, look at my new avatar. This board is going to explode when trades go down because I think big names are leaving.

LeBrun: Sabres feel the urgency to turn things around next...

That title tells you a lot...