Speculation: Botterill and Slow Cooking

[Chainshot]

Is it fair to say that Botterill's first attempt at slow cooking his prospects showed that sprinkling in spent veterans is not going to make the process work? His comments from last summer about making players earn their recalls was manna - finally someone who wanted to do it the right way, to build from within through competition and pride while getting the kids they reps they need to improve until such time as they displace those ahead of them. And yet... having that as a stated goal also builds in with it a trap that we've seen the team fall into this season: under-performing veterans left in the lineup despite not performing to even modest standards does not build competition, it stifles it. Having vets who can regularly make atrocious plays or simply be unprepared to play does not create the spirit of internal improvement since they're put right back into the lineup to make the same errors time and again.

The idea of slow cooking is fine. What we've seen is the practice has been terrible when too many of the vets are poor roster choices.

I'm wondering if Botts adapts or reacts to how this season has gone. His fringe (read "non-core" for someone who wants to parse words) signings and acquisitions last summer looked solid at the time and yet almost to a man have been some degree of flop. Does he adapt to how he fills needed roster holes this summer (aka. finding better fits) and possibly allow for internal graduation after a year of labor and reshaping on the farm? Does he react and trash his idea and simply let all the kids loose on the roster? Is there some happy medium?

Did it work and guys like Baptiste who's already performing in a 4th line role, Bailey, Smith, and others in Rochester have already put in the work to become what Botterill wants out of them?

Click to read more...

 

[valet]

I don't think it's necessarily a game of being better than the veterans. my interpretation of the strategy is that the players not in the NHL need to show that they are consistently playing at a high level for their farm clubs, more or less dominating in their role on those teams

Just about anyone could replace Nolan, pouliot, Beaulieu, poms, etc... The youth need to send a message of 'hey, the AHL is not a real challenge' to management before they replace the slugs. I don't think it affects their confidence nearly as much as we might think. they should want to be better than themselves, not players like Nolan

that said, it would be nice to ice a competitive team as that process happens. Botts didn't have the assets nor knowledge about players already in the system to make that happen this season. this off-season should be a lot different.

but who really knows? Proof will be in the pudding for better or worse

 

[brian_griffin]

Yeah, any vets next year need to have some griddle sizzle - enough speed to dance around like drops of water on a 450-Farenheit fry pan. Slow cook the youngsters, yes, but the vets have aged too long - if they were wine they'd be vinegar.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

I don't think there's any way around having a crap roster and crap performance for a year or so. I'd rather Botterill struggle filling holes with sub-par vets than having rookies (inevitably) go in and out of the starting line-up because they're being pressed into action. We should just take the hard hit now and let the right development and mentality set into the younger players. Instill in them what it takes to make the club, and set that bar high. Be terrible with vets and boot them when the younger guys earn it. I totally don't care about how bad the on ice product is as long as young players are brought along properly.

 

[Chainshot]

I don't think there's any way around having a crap roster and crap performance for a year or so. I'd rather Botterill struggle filling holes with sub-par vets than having rookies (inevitably) go in and out of the starting line-up because they're being pressed into action. We should just take the hard hit now and let the right development and mentality set into the younger players. Instill in them what it takes to make the club, and set that bar high. Be terrible with vets and boot them when the younger guys earn it. I totally don't care about how bad the on ice product is as long as young players are brought along properly.

The problem with allowing terrible vets to persist though is what does it say when they preach culture to the team? There is peril in allowing someone performing like Pouliot on the big club roster without displacement.

 

[Dingo44]

I don't think there's any way around having a crap roster and crap performance for a year or so. I'd rather Botterill struggle filling holes with sub-par vets than having rookies (inevitably) go in and out of the starting line-up because they're being pressed into action. We should just take the hard hit now and let the right development and mentality set into the younger players. Instill in them what it takes to make the club, and set that bar high. Be terrible with vets and boot them when the younger guys earn it. I totally don't care about how bad the on ice product is as long as young players are brought along properly.

So how do you sell that plan to free agent vets who are worth anything?

 

[slip]

Pretty much every effort we've made in the past 5 years to bring in "veteran" leadership has not amounted to much. Maybe Gionta, but that's about it.

Time for guys like ROR, Okposo, and Scandella to assume the vet leadership on this team and to unleash the kids around them. Maybe target a couple veterans to fill bottom 6 roles, like a checking line center. For too long our bottom 6 has been nothing more than a repository for washed up hacks like Pouliout, Moulson, and Pominville. That ends now.

 

[GellMann]

Pretty much every effort we've made in the past 5 years to bring in "veteran" leadership has not amounted to much. Maybe Gionta, but that's about it.

Time for guys like ROR, Okposo, and Scandella to assume the vet leadership on this team and to unleash the kids around them. Maybe target a couple veterans to fill bottom 6 roles, like a checking line center. For too long our bottom 6 has been nothing more than a repository for washed up hacks like Pouliout, Moulson, and Pominville. That ends now.

Actually it's time for Okposo to get off the team

 

[Beerz]

Is it fair to say that Botterill's first attempt at slow cooking his prospects showed that sprinkling in spent veterans is not going to make the process work? His comments from last summer about making players earn their recalls was manna - finally someone who wanted to do it the right way, to build from within through competition and pride while getting the kids they reps they need to improve until such time as they displace those ahead of them. And yet... having that as a stated goal also builds in with it a trap that we've seen the team fall into this season: under-performing veterans left in the lineup despite not performing to even modest standards does not build competition, it stifles it. Having vets who can regularly make atrocious plays or simply be unprepared to play does not create the spirit of internal improvement since they're put right back into the lineup to make the same errors time and again.

The idea of slow cooking is fine. What we've seen is the practice has been terrible when too many of the vets are poor roster choices.

I'm wondering if Botts adapts or reacts to how this season has gone. His fringe (read "non-core" for someone who wants to parse words) signings and acquisitions last summer looked solid at the time and yet almost to a man have been some degree of flop. Does he adapt to how he fills needed roster holes this summer (aka. finding better fits) and possibly allow for internal graduation after a year of labor and reshaping on the farm? Does he react and trash his idea and simply let all the kids loose on the roster? Is there some happy medium?

Did it work and guys like Baptiste who's already performing in a 4th line role, Bailey, Smith, and others in Rochester have already put in the work to become what Botterill wants out of them?

Pretty much.

It's hard to slow cook when the menu is packed full of unattractive and unsellable product.

Someway somehow you have to get talent ahead of the prospects....that might mean rushing some prospects in order to slow cook the prospects behind them.

When I started this post it made sense in my head but I don' think I did a good job explaining it.

Point is.... having vet plugs hasn't worked for 3 years.. it's time for a purge and let fresh blood in

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

Actually it's time for Okposo to get off the team

And how exactly does that happen with hia contract?

 

[GellMann]

And how exactly does that happen with hia contract?

It doesn't happen, but the next best thing can and should happen - after graduating a few guys (Mitts and one of Bailey/Baptiste/Smith/Nylander) and signing ~2 forwards, all of a sudden Okposo (and Pominville) aren't one of the 12 best forwards. (Others might not think that but I think they're both horrendous and Moulson-level players as is, I haven't seen KO generate an ES scoring chance for himself or someone else in about 3 months)

So just get the roster to a point where they're sitting or being sent down.

(I know that every coach in the league is going to/would play Okposo about 2 years too long though because muh vets and experience and preparing the right way, and that this is just a pipe dream)

 

[Rasmus CacOlainen]

It doesn't happen, but the next best thing can and should happen - after graduating a few guys (Mitts and one of Bailey/Baptiste/Smith/Nylander) and signing ~2 forwards, all of a sudden Okposo (and Pominville) aren't one of the 12 best forwards. (Others might not think that but I think they're both horrendous and Moulson-level players as is, I haven't seen KO generate an ES scoring chance for himself or someone else in about 3 months)

So just get the roster to a point where they're sitting or being sent down.

(I know that every coach in the league is going to/would play Okposo about 2 years too long though because muh vets and experience and preparing the right way, and that this is just a pipe dream)

You wont see Okposo sitting anytime soon. Hes still better than the majority of crap we have on the wings so it doesnt make sense to do it anyway.

 

[Moskau]

Slow cookers are 2014. Instapot or bust.

-Tim Murray probably.

 

[DatGuy]

And how exactly does that happen with hia contract?

A one way ticket to Robidas Island.

 

[GellMann]

You wont see Okposo sitting anytime soon. Hes still better than the majority of crap we have on the wings so it doesnt make sense to do it anyway.

He's really not though. His even strength production is as bad in the last 35% of the season as Moulson's was at its worst (last I checked, KO is on a 2 goals and 2 assists at ES in his last 27-28 games streak) and his skating and stickhandling have both deteriorated to sub-NHL level. Look at that chance he flubbed from the slot that Casey gave him the other night and it's emblematic of who he is. We can't even see if his shot has degraded too because he hasn't put himself in position to use it in months, because of his skating and stickhandling. He's an absolute anchor and drags down Jack and ROR so much that even loyal-to-his-vets Phil has stopped sticking him with them because their line dies when he does. His only positives are who he is as a person, and presumably as a locker room guy, and unfortunately that is going to keep us playing him when he should be going the way of Moulson next year. We'll see him two years too long just like we did Matt and it will actively hurt us.

Hell, even when he can still put up points on the power play, 75% of the time we've lost the puck in the o-zone on the PP recently is because he
a.) makes a poor passing decision or poor passing execution
b.) gets overmatched and loses a puck battle
c.) telegraphs his shot for 10 seconds before actually taking it so it's an easy save and clear or blocked.

Seriously, I challenge anyone to recall 3 instances in the last 2 months where he's either set himself or his linemates up for a legitimate chance at even strength. it literally just doesn't happen anymore. He's exactly where Moulson was, plodding around on the ice he shouldn't be on, for two straight seasons, two seasons too long.

 

[HaNotsri]

I think you have to consider where we were last year. No cap space. No quality in the top 9.
I think next season could be the start of a real system where we have an actual pipeline as well as NHL quality players on the main roster.

 

[Icicle]

He bought the best vets he could get for 1 million 1 year contracts. He wasn’t willing to commit in 3 million 3 year veteran contracts until he knew what he had. All is according to plan...B. But I don’t see what he did early as a mistake. Baptiste and Bailey were supposed to jump up early. Instead they sucked then got hurt half the season.

Given how Okposo and Moulson have gone, I’m ok with a little patience finding the right vet.

If he doesn’t find one this offseason I’ll be disappointed though.

 

[Kyndig]

He's really not though. His even strength production is as bad in the last 35% of the season as Moulson's was at its worst (last I checked, KO is on a 2 goals and 2 assists at ES in his last 27-28 games streak) and his skating and stickhandling have both deteriorated to sub-NHL level. Look at that chance he flubbed from the slot that Casey gave him the other night and it's emblematic of who he is. We can't even see if his shot has degraded too because he hasn't put himself in position to use it in months, because of his skating and stickhandling. He's an absolute anchor and drags down Jack and ROR so much that even loyal-to-his-vets Phil has stopped sticking him with them because their line dies when he does. His only positives are who he is as a person, and presumably as a locker room guy, and unfortunately that is going to keep us playing him when he should be going the way of Moulson next year. We'll see him two years too long just like we did Matt and it will actively hurt us.

Hell, even when he can still put up points on the power play, 75% of the time we've lost the puck in the o-zone on the PP recently is because he
a.) makes a poor passing decision or poor passing execution
b.) gets overmatched and loses a puck battle
c.) telegraphs his shot for 10 seconds before actually taking it so it's an easy save and clear or blocked.

Seriously, I challenge anyone to recall 3 instances in the last 2 months where he's either set himself or his linemates up for a legitimate chance at even strength. it literally just doesn't happen anymore. He's exactly where Moulson was, plodding around on the ice he shouldn't be on, for two straight seasons, two seasons too long.

That's 100% Okposo in a nutshell. I've been calling him Moulson 2.0 a lot lately because that's what he's turning into. The only difference is Moulson at least tried to one time a puck.

 

[old kummelweck]

His fringe (read "non-core" for someone who wants to parse words) signings and acquisitions last summer looked solid at the time and yet almost to a man have been some degree of flop.

I'm not in agreement with this statement. There were fringe players or long-shots, but lots of optimism from the fan base about them. They were essentially placeholders to keep the kids down on the farm to develop. In an ideal world, this team would have at least been in the mix for a playoff spot. But you don't fire your coach and GM, turn over your roster, then expect miracles. Botterill has publicly stated that this team is not where they expected it to be, but I don't think he's being 100% honest as where they are is within a predictable range of expectation after what transpired.

That said, we are starting to see a pattern with this team and the hole they put themselves in the first half. The GM has gone on the record and stated there would be major changes this off-season, but I think you can argue the team has responded to that just enough to make his job a little more difficult.

I'm ready for the player grades thread.

 

[joshjull]

The problem with allowing terrible vets to persist though is what does it say when they preach culture to the team? There is peril in allowing someone performing like Pouliot on the big club roster without displacement.

I think the premise of the thread is misguided in its focus. The measure of the success/failure of the development approach is the development/growth (or lack of it) of the youngsters. I get the frustration with the vets , Pouliot in particular. But I'd rather see the youngsters developed at their own pace and not rushed because the vets aren't cutting it. We needed a reset with our development approach. It was going to take placeholder vets to fill spots as the reset took place.

Nelson, Guhle, CJ Smith, Ullmark , Bailey and Baptiste took steps forward in their growth as players. ranging from small to huge leaps forward. Because of that growth we now have 6 legit in-house options for the NHL roster next season. That's 6 fewer spots for placeholders to fill.

 

[pigpen65]

I definitely don't see this as any kind of issue at the moment. There isn't a glut of talent in Rochester being cooked even though the Sabres could desperately use it now. Nylander has 7 goals, not 30. If he had 30 goals and Botterill was still leaving him down there then we would have some evidence of how committed Botterill was to the strategy. As it is the roster, along with the prospect pool, is a f***ing mess. CJ Smith isn't making any difference to the Sabres winning or losing games if he comes up.

 

[enthusiast]

#stopfoodanalogies2018

 

[BuzzKillington90]

It doesn't happen, but the next best thing can and should happen - after graduating a few guys (Mitts and one of Bailey/Baptiste/Smith/Nylander) and signing ~2 forwards, all of a sudden Okposo (and Pominville) aren't one of the 12 best forwards. (Others might not think that but I think they're both horrendous and Moulson-level players as is, I haven't seen KO generate an ES scoring chance for himself or someone else in about 3 months)

So just get the roster to a point where they're sitting or being sent down.

(I know that every coach in the league is going to/would play Okposo about 2 years too long though because muh vets and experience and preparing the right way, and that this is just a pipe dream)

Honestly, like Reinhart....Okposo has had a better 2nd half. Still no where near what we signed him for....but markedly better and more noticeable at least offensively.

Don't get me wrong, his play barely equals a 3rd liner right now...but I will give credit where credit is due...

 

[1point21Gigawatts]

I am hoping that Botts idea is to give a lot of the AHL guys a chance to get their feet wet and play a few games and a few stretches with the big club so that next year they can start bumping guys like Nolan.

Who won't be back next season that needs to be replaced? Josephson and PooPoo? What Rochester guys can be slotted into their place?

 

[Jame]

I think the premise of the thread is misguided in its focus. The measure of the success/failure of the development approach is the development/growth (or lack of it) of the youngsters. I get the frustration with the vets , Pouliot in particular. But I'd rather see the youngsters developed at their own pace and not rushed because the vets aren't cutting it. We needed a reset with our development approach. It was going to take placeholder vets to fill spots as the reset took place.

Nelson, Guhle, CJ Smith, Ullmark , Bailey and Baptiste took steps forward in their growth as players. ranging from small to huge leaps forward. Because of that growth we now have 6 legit in-house options for the NHL roster next season. That's 6 fewer spots for placeholders to fill.

I think that you've basically created a self-fulfilling prophecy... "look we slow cooked, look their ready now".

Convince me that Casey Nelson, at 25 years old, needed to be "slow cooked". Prove it.

Baptiste and Bailey needed to start a 3rd season in the AHL, in their 5th post draft year, at 22 years old? Why?

We didn't need to sacrifice a season, to re-set the development pipeline... it didn't need to be one or the other. Botts failed.