Post-Game Talk: Boscosharks at the Holtbys 7pm

[traparatus]

Hagelin and Eller with ~6 minutes of PK time each against one of the best power plays in the league. That's madness

Also, Siegenthaler with 6 minutes of PK time and 14 minutes total ice time. I honestly cannot remember ever seen this kind of deployment.

 

[StrikingDistance]

Just because he is supposed to be good doesnt excuse him being terrible defensively. There are tons of high end centers who can drive play well offensively while at least break even defensively. He has the worst net xG rates out of all the main Caps fowards and ranks 11th worst in the entire NHL in net xG rates. Now I don't think he is that bad because hes always been able to bend PDO in his favor but hes not worth his cap hit and hes not one of the better caps forwards.

Dude/ dudette...just give it a rest. We get it.

Create a 'Kuzy Sucks' thread and talk to yourself about it for eternity.

 

[JayBeagleFanAccount]

Dude/ dudette...just give it a rest. We get it.

Create a 'Kuzy Sucks' thread and talk to yourself about it for eternity.

I don't think he sucks, I just think he's overrated and not worth his cap hit.

 

[kicksavedave]

The heat maps have spoken!

# Trade Kuzy AND #TradeCarlson

 

[Kuznetsnow]

So his one ice analytics and eye test show both Carlson and Kuznetsov are poor defensively but theyre not because you say so? Look these heat maps of their defense, heat maps arent analytics they just show shots allowed when a player is on the ice, these literally prove that Carlson and Kuznetsov are not good defensively and Jensen is good defensively. I think that John Carlson is a great player and is better than Nick Jensen but Jensen is better at defense.

View attachment 290015 View attachment 290017 View attachment 290019

Your eye test that had Carlson break up 2 on 1 after 2 on 1 from the best line in hockey shows that he's poor defensively? Cool.

Look these heat maps of their defense, heat maps arent analytics they just show shots allowed when a player is on the ice, these literally prove that Carlson and Kuznetsov are not good defensively and Jensen is good defensively

"Shots allowed when a player is on the ice can be used as empirical PROOF of defensive ability because us statheads say so. Nevermind the fact that forwards take more shots against good players just to get pucks on net rather than try going for a pretty passing play, good players knowing who they're playing against and when letting them take a low percentage shot is the best option, good players playing percentages to transition quickly to offense out of the zone, and all other nuances that go into defense. No, none of this matters because we want to feel smart and using shots as a stand in for goals allows us to do so"

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

Honestly, I don't see this whole Carlson is bad at D thing. He was really solid today defensively, yet again. I love analytics, but, sometimes they don't show the full picture. If anything, I personally think that John has cut down on the d-zone turnovers and is being a lot more effective with an active stick and defensive positioning, as well as utilizing his big frame.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

What was the Caps record with Kuz as 1st line center with Backstrom hurt? Something like 83-0, but seriously we didn’t lose a game

 

[notDkristich]

went to game...good god backstrom is slower than ever or maybe he's is just saving it for the playoffs (insert sarcasm here)

bruins fans and all over the place.

 

[JayBeagleFanAccount]

Your eye test that had Carlson break up 2 on 1 after 2 on 1 from the best line in hockey shows that he's poor defensively? Cool.



"Shots allowed when a player is on the ice can be used as empirical PROOF of defensive ability because us statheads say so. Nevermind the fact that forwards take more shots against good players just to get pucks on net rather than try going for a pretty passing play, good players knowing who they're playing against and when letting them take a low percentage shot is the best option, good players playing percentages to transition quickly to offense out of the zone, and all other nuances that go into defense. No, none of this matters because we want to feel smart and using shots as a stand in for goals allows us to do so"

One poke check doesnt discredit a 3 year sample of being negative defensively. I also think Carlson is the Caps best defenseman with super high end, elite offense and is a massive plus to the team.

 

[StrikingDistance]

I don't think he sucks, I just think he's overrated and not worth his cap hit.

Potatoes/Potatos. Again, we get it. Thanks for the opinion you've surely beaten to death several times.

You should know by now these 'hot takes' don't age well. Last year a poster here had an unhealthy fascination with Oshie's performance for a few weeks. Look how that ended.

Stats don't tell the whole story...ever (I used to teach it).

Anyway my HFGAC/60 about #92 is 0%. Figure that one out.

 

[Kuznetsnow]

One poke check doesnt discredit a 3 year sample of being negative defensively. I also think Carlson is the Caps best defenseman with super high end, elite offense and is a massive plus to the team.

He has not been a negative defensively since the beginning of the Columbus series in the cup year and only very sporadically before that while not having NHL caliber partners and the Caps going through an existential crisis. His defense has been absolutely on point for a long long time. Gap control, blocking shots, handling odd man rushes, stickwork, successfully battling for pucks along the boards, clearing the zone, every typical defensive task he has been very very reliable at at.

 

[JayBeagleFanAccount]

He has not been a negative defensively since the beginning of the Columbus series in the cup year and only very sporadically before that while not having NHL caliber partners and the Caps going through an existential crisis. His defense has been absolutely on point for a long long time. Gap control, blocking shots, handling odd man rushes, stickwork, successfully battling for pucks along the boards, clearing the zone, every typical defensive task he has been very very reliable at at.

Do you have any statistical evidence of this or are you just throwing these words around? Sure he blocks a lot of shots but that doesnt make him a shut down defender.

 

[Hinterland]

If there is one thing we can all agree on it’s that the third line is atrocious. Get Boyd back in the lineup and sit either Hagelin or Panik.

Hagelin needs to come out. His good shifts this season you can count with one hand. But he's incredibily creative when it comes to wasting grade a chances. Always seems to find new ways to prevent the Caps from scoring. He's brutal. And not even fast anymore. A bad joke.

 

[traparatus]

Finally. For a few days here everyone was really liking everyone else and it felt creepy and unnatural. Normality has been restored.

As for the issue at hand, you are all wrong.

 

[Kuznetsnow]

Do you have any statistical evidence of this or are you just throwing these words around? Sure he blocks a lot of shots but that doesnt make him a shut down defender.

For starters Carlson +19 on the same team where Jensen is -9.

"But plus minus is unreliable..."

Unironically more grounded in actual hockey results than that shot-derived heatmap garbage which we're supposed to pretend represents "evidence" rather than correlation because some people would like it to.

 

[Kuznetsnow]

Hagelin needs to come out. His good shifts this season you can count with one hand. But he's incredibily creative when it comes to wasting grade a chances. Always seems to find new ways to prevent the Caps from scoring. He's brutal. And not even fast anymore. A bad joke.

This, resigning him and keeping him ultimately over Stephenson is a black eye on the offseason. And BMac doubled down with a similar passenger in Panik.

How much more effective would the 3rd line be right now with Stephenson/Boyd and one of Bura/Conno.

 

[JayBeagleFanAccount]

For starters Carlson +19 on the same team where Jensen is -9.

"But plus minus is unreliable..."

Unironically more grounded in actual hockey results than that shot-derived heatmap garbage which we're supposed to pretend represents "evidence" rather than correlation because some people would like it to.

+/- is probably the most worthless evaluation tool in the world of hockey, everything I have used is based from on ice results.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Maaco?

Disqualified for heavy stats use. Sharkbait hated stats.

 

[Kuznetsnow]

+/- is probably the most worthless evaluation tool in the world of hockey, everything I have used is based from on ice results.

So just so we're clear, GOALS for/against while on the ice is worthless, but SHOTS for/against while on the ice is a reliable indicator of "on ice results".

Hopefully Carlson gets the memo and starts putting pucks in the chest protector instead of the net. Imagine how much his EXPECTED goals for would soar if he was shooting the puck but not scoring any real ones

 

[AussieCapsFan]

It sounds personal at this point. Maybe Kuzy cut in front of him at the gas station.

Kuzy cutting into a line - careful now!

 

[SherVaughn30]

Hagelin needs to come out. His good shifts this season you can count with one hand. But he's incredibily creative when it comes to wasting grade a chances. Always seems to find new ways to prevent the Caps from scoring. He's brutal. And not even fast anymore. A bad joke.

I would have no problem with Panik being scratched for Boyd. Hagelin has far too much value in all the other areas to scratch him.

 

[AussieCapsFan]

He looks bad even to the eye test, do you watch him when he doesnt have the puck? The only player on the team more disengaged in the defensive zone is Ovechkin. Kuzy is lazy, yeah might have like 2 or 3 good rushes and some fancy passes in a game but that doesnt mean his overall contribution to the game is a net positive.

Well he IS Russian, so you need to factor that into your stats

And did you see him intercept that pass on a two on one tonight? Pretty sure that would have been a Boston goal if not for Kuzy.

 

[AussieCapsFan]

For starters Carlson +19 on the same team where Jensen is -9.

"But plus minus is unreliable..."

Unironically more grounded in actual hockey results than that shot-derived heatmap garbage which we're supposed to pretend represents "evidence" rather than correlation because some people would like it to.

I'm not ashamed to say - I like plus minus when it's viewed on a team by team basis, and in particular when it's a team you follow closely and know the roles of the players. And looking at the team, I'm not surprised that Jensen is -9 and Orlov is -4. Jensen because of some poor defensive lapses and Orlov because he takes risks with the puck.

If you throw every player in the NHL into a plus minus table you end up with a bell curve and it becomes meaningless outside of the highest and lowest.

 

[Hinterland]

I would have no problem with Panik being scratched for Boyd. Hagelin has far too much value in all the other areas to scratch him.

In what areas? Turning over pucks? Losing board battles? Losing foot races? Missing empty nets? Missing defensive assignments? Icing pucks? Getting overpowered pysically? Those are Hagelin's prime qualities. That guy is 100% done.

That amazing stretch pass he received from Eller tonight...if you saw what he did with it you can't even be mad anymore...you can't help but feel sorry for the guy. That was sad to watch. Every beer league player could have moved that puck to Panik in a way that would have allowed him to score. Hagelin probably tried to set up Panik but it certainly didn't look like he did. Puck ended up in deserted nowhereland. Sad story.

 

[zappa4ever]

Man what a satisfying game! I'm sure non-fans enjoyed it too
Everyone put their big boy pants on and skated hard
Gotta love Oshie, heart and soul HOF, lays it all out there
Been getting a lot of SH breaks the last several games, bout time for some SHG's methinks
Great D game from JC74, broke up a ton of plays
BOS is pretty top-heavy, outside of Past/Berg/March is where they couldn't keep up