Trade: [BOS/CHW] Chris Sale to Boston for Moncada, Kopech, Basabe and Diaz

[Blackhawkswincup]

You haven't read the Hawks board sports thread then

This deal is still terrible and a few good months of Moncada play doesn't change that

Its nice that something might be salvaged though I want to see Moncada carry this level of play beyond this season

Still the White Sox gave away a young left handed ace signed to a steal of a contract who has been nothing but dominant in his career and won WS as Red Sox ace

Moncada must be a top player at his position and Kopech/Basabe better develop into something to ever justify the deal White Sox took

 

[robert terwilliger]

counterpoint: chris sale hasn't won a game at home in over a year.

 

[Canes]

Look who's top 10 in WAR!

View attachment 244213

But look at that walk rate and BABIP, regression incoming.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

But look at that walk rate and BABIP, regression incoming.

Obviously .401 isn't maintainable but he's in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity so a good component of that is skill driven, he's destroying the ball it's not like he's just magically finding holes every time.

 

[Canes]

Obviously .401 isn't maintainable but he's in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity so a good component of that is skill driven, he's destroying the ball it's not like he's just magically finding holes every time.

I was mostly joking around. Moncada is definitely still a very good player. He's also still developing and has some untapped potential. He's probably not going to be a consistent top 10 WAR player unless he reaches that potential though.

 

[John Price]

what's wrong with him this year?

 

[Unholy Diver]

He got paid and put it on cruise control

 

[NJDevs26]

He got paid and put it on cruise control

Eh he was breaking down at the end of last year too. Not every power pitcher is built to last till 35+ like Max and Verlander. And it has to be said some pitchers are responding worse to the juiced balls this year than others, even Verlander's HR total is up.

 

[Unholy Diver]

Eh he was breaking down at the end of last year too. Not every power pitcher is built to last till 35+ like Max and Verlander. And it has to be said some pitchers are responding worse to the juiced balls this year than others, even Verlander's HR total is up.

Yeah I was just being a smart ass, I have to think he will bounce back a fair bit at least, maybe not all the way to where he was but I doubt he all of the sudden is cooked

 

[Quid Pro Clowe]

Eh he was breaking down at the end of last year too. Not every power pitcher is built to last till 35+ like Max and Verlander. And it has to be said some pitchers are responding worse to the juiced balls this year than others, even Verlander's HR total is up.

I like how now it's universally accepted that the balls are juiced, but for years whenever I or others brought it up wrt Bonds' era, people just scoffed, despite ct scans showing there was a difference.

This wasn't directed at you; just funny how people can switch narratives depending on the era. People don't want to think players from THEIR era cheated, bit they'll shit all over the era between 85-05.

 

[robert terwilliger]

ped's are the only reason barry bonds ever did anything positive on a baseball field. i know this because he was a jerk to america's royalty: sports media.

 

[NJDevs26]

I like how now it's universally accepted that the balls are juiced, but for years whenever I or others brought it up wrt Bonds' era, people just scoffed, despite ct scans showing there was a difference.

This wasn't directed at you; just funny how people can switch narratives depending on the era. People don't want to think players from THEIR era cheated, bit they'll **** all over the era between 85-05.

Well Verlander and others think there's a real difference just between last year's baseballs and this year's. Even Manfred more or less confirmed that while denying that he ordered the balls be made different.

 

[robert terwilliger]

they've been different a few times in the last few years, there was a spike in homers in 2017 and we're on pace to absolutely shatter the previous record in a season.

 

[Quid Pro Clowe]

Well Verlander and others think there's a real difference just between last year's baseballs and this year's. Even Manfred more or less confirmed that while denying that he ordered the balls be made different.

I'm agreeing with you. There was proof the balls were different in the 'steriod' era, too.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

He got paid and put it on cruise control

Sale is a lunatic. He’s incapable of cruise control.

 

[MurrayBannerman]

Sale is a lunatic. He’s incapable of cruise control.

Imagine Chris Sale chilling out

 

[MurrayBannerman]

I was mostly joking around. Moncada is definitely still a very good player. He's also still developing and has some untapped potential. He's probably not going to be a consistent top 10 WAR player unless he reaches that potential though.

He's 27th in bWARP at 2.5 and 59th in DRC+ at 119, which takes into account a lot of the uncertainty you're worried about. Pretty much all metrics like Moncada both defensively and on the bases this year. So, I'm not worried.

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

Imagine Chris Sale chilling out

Chris Sale is a born leader, 2nd to only Drake LaRoche.

 

[MurrayBannerman]

Chris Sale is a born leader, 2nd to only Drake LaRoche.

One of the best games I've ever went to was the Scissors game.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Moving from middle infield to corner infield obviously hurts your value. I think he'll be a slightly plus defender at third, it will be the bat that really makes him or break him. The analytics say he destroys the ball. He has a good eye. Everyone points to the 217 strikeouts last year but 85 of those were looking which is a ridiculous amount, so he doesn't have a ton of swing and miss in his game.

 

[MurrayBannerman]

Moving from middle infield to corner infield obviously hurts your value. I think he'll be a slightly plus defender at third, it will be the bat that really makes him or break him. The analytics say he destroys the ball. He has a good eye. Everyone points to the 217 strikeouts last year but 85 of those were looking which is a ridiculous amount, so he doesn't have a ton of swing and miss in his game.

The positional adjustment at 2nd and 3rd is the same WAR wise.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

The positional adjustment at 2nd and 3rd is the same WAR wise.

I had to double check but you're right, odd. But look at these numbers over the past 6 years for 3B vs 2B. I would have thought 2B gets a bigger boost playing up the middle and having to turn double plays and you can see teams are willing to sacrifice bat there.

3B

Season	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	BsR	Off	Def	WAR
2014	7164	25142	603	2698	2698	239	7.40%	19.70%	0.139	0.303	0.258	0.318	0.396	0.316	100	-34.1	-21.9	42.7	87.3
2015	7397	25742	747	2930	2898	228	7.10%	19.10%	0.16	0.297	0.26	0.318	0.42	0.319	101	-38	-2.8	34.4	90
2016	7661	27290	938	3376	3261	342	8.30%	19.90%	0.178	0.302	0.264	0.331	0.442	0.331	106	0.9	191.7	59.4	117
2017	7336	26138	928	3169	3193	245	9.10%	20.90%	0.182	0.295	0.256	0.33	0.438	0.328	102	-24.5	25.3	35.4	93.1
2018	7750	27223	886	3224	3188	245	8.90%	20.80%	0.174	0.291	0.251	0.324	0.425	0.323	102	-18.2	56.1	4.4	96.7
2019	4280	15917	605	2068	2015	126	8.90%	20.30%	0.191	0.295	0.26	0.332	0.451	0.33	104	-10.2	79.4	33	63.5

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

2B

Season	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	BsR	Off	Def	WAR
2014	7346	25409	420	2740	2309	473	6.80%	17.70%	0.113	0.292	0.25	0.307	0.364	0.298	88	67.6	-260.3	75.2	65.7
2015	7531	26307	513	2986	2556	422	6.70%	18.00%	0.131	0.303	0.261	0.315	0.391	0.307	93	37.8	-182.5	63.2	75.9
2016	7505	25800	691	3217	2684	442	7.30%	18.40%	0.154	0.311	0.27	0.329	0.425	0.324	101	40.8	70.9	74	100.9
2017	7902	27332	681	3398	2876	485	8.10%	18.80%	0.146	0.306	0.263	0.329	0.409	0.317	94	10.2	-191.2	97.3	81.5
2018	7624	26101	621	3025	2664	432	7.70%	20.00%	0.141	0.3	0.254	0.317	0.395	0.309	93	42	-173.6	57.7	74.7
2019	4572	16398	503	2015	1868	241	7.40%	20.30%	0.162	0.297	0.256	0.318	0.418	0.312	92	25.8	-142.2	34.4	43.6

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[MurrayBannerman]

I had to double check but you're right, odd. But look at these numbers over the past 6 years for 3B vs 2B. I would have thought 2B gets a bigger boost playing up the middle and having to turn double plays and you can see teams are willing to sacrifice bat there.

3B

Season	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	BsR	Off	Def	WAR
2014	7164	25142	603	2698	2698	239	7.40%	19.70%	0.139	0.303	0.258	0.318	0.396	0.316	100	-34.1	-21.9	42.7	87.3
2015	7397	25742	747	2930	2898	228	7.10%	19.10%	0.16	0.297	0.26	0.318	0.42	0.319	101	-38	-2.8	34.4	90
2016	7661	27290	938	3376	3261	342	8.30%	19.90%	0.178	0.302	0.264	0.331	0.442	0.331	106	0.9	191.7	59.4	117
2017	7336	26138	928	3169	3193	245	9.10%	20.90%	0.182	0.295	0.256	0.33	0.438	0.328	102	-24.5	25.3	35.4	93.1
2018	7750	27223	886	3224	3188	245	8.90%	20.80%	0.174	0.291	0.251	0.324	0.425	0.323	102	-18.2	56.1	4.4	96.7
2019	4280	15917	605	2068	2015	126	8.90%	20.30%	0.191	0.295	0.26	0.332	0.451	0.33	104	-10.2	79.4	33	63.5

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

2B

Season	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	BsR	Off	Def	WAR
2014	7346	25409	420	2740	2309	473	6.80%	17.70%	0.113	0.292	0.25	0.307	0.364	0.298	88	67.6	-260.3	75.2	65.7
2015	7531	26307	513	2986	2556	422	6.70%	18.00%	0.131	0.303	0.261	0.315	0.391	0.307	93	37.8	-182.5	63.2	75.9
2016	7505	25800	691	3217	2684	442	7.30%	18.40%	0.154	0.311	0.27	0.329	0.425	0.324	101	40.8	70.9	74	100.9
2017	7902	27332	681	3398	2876	485	8.10%	18.80%	0.146	0.306	0.263	0.329	0.409	0.317	94	10.2	-191.2	97.3	81.5
2018	7624	26101	621	3025	2664	432	7.70%	20.00%	0.141	0.3	0.254	0.317	0.395	0.309	93	42	-173.6	57.7	74.7
2019	4572	16398	503	2015	1868	241	7.40%	20.30%	0.162	0.297	0.256	0.318	0.418	0.312	92	25.8	-142.2	34.4	43.6

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

There's definitely a necessary push to redefine the adjustments, but, even then, if he's a better fit at third then he should be there.

 

[IU Hawks fan]

I think we also have to look at what makes the team better:

IE, in 2021, would you rather have?

Moncada at 2B + Machado at 3B

OR

Moncada at 3B + Madrigal at 2B + $30mm (for SP/RF, etc)

So even if hypothetically he lost 1.5 WAR from moving over, is it a net positive?

 

[MurrayBannerman]

I think we also have to look at what makes the team better:

IE, in 2021, would you rather have?

Moncada at 2B + Machado at 3B

OR

Moncada at 3B + Madrigal at 2B + $30mm (for SP/RF, etc)

So even if hypothetically he lost 1.5 WAR from moving over, is it a net positive?

It wouldn't even be that much. It'd be pretty minuscule.