TSN: Bob McKenzie on Insider Trading: Leafs have preliminary contract talks with Jake Muzzin

[SprDaVE]

I think people are going to be very, very surprised if they're expecting a Muzzin contract to come in under $5m with any term. Jake Gardiner was offered 3x$5.25m by the Habs and Muzzin is pretty clearly the better player. Only one year older than Gards and a rock solid physical presence, there would be a lot of demand for him. Stralman signed for 3x$5.5m at age 33. Faulk is younger, but signed a $6.5m deal. Trouba got $8m. Any dollar figure under $6m for Muzzin is a discount IMO and could go as high as $7m if the term is 3 years. He knows that this is his last big deal, so he'll probably be amenable to getting some term in exchange for cap hit, but I'll be gobsmacked if we get a 3 or 4 year deal at $5m or less.

I probably like Muzzin a lot more than average, but I'd be thrilled with him at 3x$6m or 4x$5.5m. If we let him walk, we have to trade assets for an equivalent player immediately. It would be best if we could clone him one or two times and put those guys on the blueline too.

I think that's a fair assessment. Leafs have plenty of cap space to fit Muzzin and another similar RHD defenseman to replace Barrie. I'm not overly worried about giving Muzzin is due.

Ideally, the shorter term the better though.

 

[Burnie97]

3 years... 4.5 to 5 million.

 

[Dangles McGavin]

4 years 5 mil feels right.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Took a stab at some comparable players.

IMO Vlasic and McDonagh are a higher tier player, but some of the other comparables may be pretty close.

 

[dubplatepressure]

4 years 5 mil feels right.

Add another mil to that and I think it happens. not that i'm advocating the contract but I think $24m over 4 years, heavily front loaded, gets it done.

 

[MapleLeafs77]

I am not signing anyone until the season is done. I want to see muzzin and dermott more.

I think its obvious that barrie and ceci are gone.

Muzzin wasnt good under keefe imo. He was great with babs tho. Lets see what dermott and muzzin can do carrying the left side the rest of the way.

 

[ShaneFalco]

I am not signing anyone until the season is done. I want to see muzzin and dermott more.

I think its obvious that barrie and ceci are gone.

Muzzin wasnt good under keefe imo. He was great with babs tho. Lets see what dermott and muzzin can do carrying the left side the rest of the way.

I get the sense Muzzin was playing hurt for a while there.

 

[Gallagbi]

I'd like to keep is shorter or cheaper but I'm expecting 4x6mil/yr is the number. Just a gut feeling.

 

[SprDaVE]

Took a stab at some comparable players.

IMO Vlasic and McDonagh are a higher tier player, but some of the other comparables may be pretty close.

View attachment 307985

3 years between 5 and 6M seems very appropriate.

 

[Jozay]

Would only go 4 years if the cap is low.

Ideally 3 x 5-6.

 

[Dangles McGavin]

Add another mil to that and I think it happens. not that i'm advocating the contract but I think $24m over 4 years, heavily front loaded, gets it done.

I go low, you go high. Meet somewhere in the middle. 5.7mil x 4 years.

 

[GoonieFace]

Not sure as a UFA he is going to take a 3 or 4 year deal, could be wrong.

 

[dubplatepressure]

I go low, you go high. Meet somewhere in the middle. 5.7mil x 4 years.

I don't see Muzzin getting anything less than $6M on 4y term - what negotiating tactics they use to get there are up to them. If he takes 5.7m I'd be pleasantly surprised.

 

[Anthrax442]

3-4 years max. anything more will be a problem

 

[18leafsfan18]

3 years between 5 and 6M seems very appropriate.

Does it seem like a decent list of comparables ?

I filtered for p/gm, age, signing year etc.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

I'd take Muzzin back at 3 years 17 million.

That would worsen the cap crunch

 

[SprDaVE]

Not sure as a UFA he is going to take a 3 or 4 year deal, could be wrong.

Hammer took a 2 year deal to stay with the Coyotes. Stralman took a 3 year deal. Heck even Gardiner was close to signing a 3 year deal with the Habs but opted for a cheaper 4 year deal.

I think players realize that signing huge contracts can be a pretty significant detriment because they generally don't work out long-term and could find themselves on the bus in the AHL for a long time. Just ask Karl Alzner. If Alzer had signed a 3 year deal instead of 5, he'd already be a pending UFA and likely relieved not to ride the bus with Laval, or maybe he would have gotten bought out by now and he could have moved on.

Sometimes signing 2-3 year term contracts as a non-star is better because they can then re-sign for market value contracts sooner and not be at risk of being in the AHL or end up on a bad team in Buffalo for example.

If the Leafs do go up to 5-6 years, the cap hit should be significantly lower than the 3 year cap hit. It might be worth doing that only to reduce the cap hit by a million or two.

 

[ShaneFalco]

 

[SprDaVE]

Does it seem like a decent list of comparables ?

I filtered for p/gm, age, signing year etc.

I would say it's a very good comparable list.

 

[13pacheco31]

Add another mil to that and I think it happens. not that i'm advocating the contract but I think $24m over 4 years, heavily front loaded, gets it done.

Maybe a number just north of 24

 

[JT AM da real deal]

4 years 5 mil feels right.

This is where things will end up. Muzz wants 5 years. Leafs at 3 years. I think 4 years at 5M will be the final negotiated position. and likely that 4th year will be a mistake but that's the way NHL veteran defense contracts go. The Leafs will front load bonus it too to help trade in that 4th year because they have the $$$ to do it.

 

[ACC1224]

Yep, 4 x 5 million seems about right.

 

[egd27]

Right D should be

Barrie
Holl
Liljegren
UFA (like Green because Babcock not here anymore)

Disagree.......I do not see Barrie returning as a UFA. Does not bring enough for the Cap and Term he will be looking for.

I am not signing anyone until the season is done. I want to see muzzin and dermott more.

I think its obvious that barrie and ceci are gone.

Muzzin wasnt good under keefe imo. He was great with babs tho. Lets see what dermott and muzzin can do carrying the left side the rest of the way.

I think you have too many Muzzin's listed

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Barrie is gone. Leafs are not interested in paying 8M AAV for him. They have Rielly already and he can run PP and if not then Sandin can do it.

I wish we would trade him when he has value for a 1st rounder next year. We are not winning Cup this year so why not get our pick back. I know times are bad right now to do it with Rielly out, and they likely won't do it, but he is our only asset that could get us a 1st rounder next year.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Barrie is gone. Leafs are not interested in paying 8M AAV for him. They have Rielly already and he can run PP and if not then Sandin can do it.

I wish we would trade him when he has value for a 1st rounder next year. We are not winning Cup this year so why not get our pick back. I know times are bad right now to do it with Rielly out, and they likely won't do it, but he is our only asset that could get us a 1st rounder next year.

Don't be too sure.