Blues Trade Proposals 2019-2020

[LGB]

Who of Sanford, Kyrou, Sunny, Blais, Mac, or Barby plays with O'Reilly and Perron? Sound like a good discussion?

First of all giving contracts to players in free agency after career years rarely ends well.

I would say the options currently on the roster to play with ROR and Perron are Sanford, Thomas, Blais, Kyrou in that order. Sanford's stats alongside ROR and Perron will shock you:

(regular season + playoffs)

TOI	CF%	GF%	xGF%	xGF/60	xGA/60
164.17	53.07	73.33	65.03	2.37	1.28

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Now the sample size is not as big as I'd like it to be, but still significant enough to come to the conclusion that this line is good. Even more impressively the entire regular season sample came from the first half of the season when the Blues were bad (~128 min, +12.84 xGF% rel), and the rest came from the Stanley Cup finals. The line was incredibly good defensively giving up only 1.28 xGA/60 (Sanford has a surprisingly good defensive impact statistically at least). That is probably not sustainable over a larger sample, but even if it goes up 50% this is still a strong line. Not to mention Perron and O'Reilly are guys who typically outperform their xG share.

 

[blues hillbilly]

First of all giving contracts to players in free agency after career years rarely ends well.

I would say the options currently on the roster to play with ROR and Perron are Sanford, Thomas, Blais, Kyrou in that order. Sanford's stats alongside ROR and Perron will shock you:

(regular season + playoffs)

TOI	CF%	GF%	xGF%	xGF/60	xGA/60
164.17	53.07	73.33	65.03	2.37	1.28

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Now the sample size is not as big as I'd like it to be, but still significant enough to come to the conclusion that this line is good. Even more impressively the entire regular season sample came from the first half of the season when the Blues were bad (~128 min, +12.84 xGF% rel), and the rest came from the Stanley Cup finals. The line was incredibly good defensively giving up only 1.28 xGA/60 (Sanford has a surprisingly good defensive impact statistically at least). That is probably not sustainable over a larger sample, but even if it goes up 50% this is still a strong line. Not to mention Perron and O'Reilly are guys who typically outperform their xG share.

I thought someone would comment about last year being an outlier. Maybe, maybe not. When he came out in the draft this would have been considered extremely low because of his skating and skills. He went 4th overall.

I also thought Sanford would be the best pairing with ROR and Perron.

I should have listed Thomas but I think he may be best off starting alongside Bozak for another year. Bozak is just so exemplary for Thomas. The following year Thomas gets his own line.

How we handle the two spots on the 2nd and 3rd lines seems to be the big question marks next year for our forwards. At least we have many options and really just let them compete for the spots.

If it's not working then add at the trade deadline.

Just my thoughts on their approach.

 

[Vladys Gumption]

In a league where Neal Pionk was praised as a return for Trouba because he played on a bad team that needed him to play 20+ minutes a night, just being able to play the games goes a long way.

Who has been praising Pionk as the return? I've seen the exact opposite. People are (rightfully) ripping that deal for being awful.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

Who has been praising Pionk as the return? I've seen the exact opposite. People are (rightfully) ripping that deal for being awful.

Fans, yes. As they should be! It’s an ultimately silly argument. But the Jets made that argument anyways. It’s an argument that gets made all the time by GMs: “this guy plays a lot, and you are either good enough to play that much, or at least you got experience playing minutes against top guys at the NHL level and those are minutes we wouldn’t have given this guy (and probably don’t want to give him in the future if everything goes according to plan), but we’re happy that he knows what to expect and how to handle it.”

And with Allen... maybe that’s true. Maybe he does find consistency on another team and carves out a nice career. Halak has. Dubnyk has. Goalies are inexplicable.

But the general idea is this: if anybody thinks that bad/risky GM moves are outliers of an otherwise perfectly utilitarian system where teams always maximize trade/signing values, they either don’t understand the constraints of a hard cap system, or haven’t been paying attention to any of the recent evidence. Don’t pay so much attention to what makes sense, and pay more attention to what GMs are actually doing. Those two things are miles apart in most cases. Allen getting an asset back (and the receiving fan base being INCENSED by it) is exactly what GMs today would do.

 

[Vladys Gumption]

Fans, yes. As they should be! It’s an ultimately silly argument. But the Jets made that argument anyways. It’s an argument that gets made all the time by GMs: “this guy plays a lot, and you are either good enough to play that much, or at least you got experience playing minutes against top guys at the NHL level and those are minutes we wouldn’t have given this guy (and probably don’t want to give him in the future if everything goes according to plan), but we’re happy that he knows what to expect and how to handle it.”

And with Allen... maybe that’s true. Maybe he does find consistency on another team and carves out a nice career. Halak has. Dubnyk has. Goalies are inexplicable.

But the general idea is this: if anybody thinks that bad/risky GM moves are outliers of an otherwise perfectly utilitarian system where teams always maximize trade/signing values, they either don’t understand the constraints of a hard cap system, or haven’t been paying attention to any of the recent evidence. Don’t pay so much attention to what makes sense, and pay more attention to what GMs are actually doing. Those two things are miles apart in most cases. Allen getting an asset back (and the receiving fan base being INCENSED by it) is exactly what GMs today would do.

Wait so you're saying that your evidence for "people are saying this is a good deal" is the GM who made the trade making that statement? As if he would say anything else?

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Wait so you're saying that your evidence for "people are saying this is a good deal" is the GM who made the trade making that statement? As if he would say anything else?

I think what he is trying to say is that GMs are different than fans, and we've seen that GMs trade for guys like Pionk because they can "play the minutes". Allen can play the minutes, and if it weren't for his cap hit, would be a good gamble for a team. For a team that doesn't care about the cap hit, Allen is that good gamble.

I'm not as optimistic as Morty, but players like Allen get traded all of the time. He's tradeable, and I don't think it will require big assets to do so. We can debate whether Fabbri or Kostin are big assets.

I think that Allen stays for next year UNLESS he is able to be traded without losing pieces like Fabbri and Kostin. The only way that changes is if we are in the hunt for a big FA and need the space. Otherwise, Allen is a good fit for us just like the hypothetical team mentioned before since we don't have a use for that cap space THIS year.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

Wait so you're saying that your evidence for "people are saying this is a good deal" is the GM who made the trade making that statement? As if he would say anything else?

I said Pionk “was praised.” Read Chevy’s statements, it’s what he said. I’m not being intentionally or unfairly generous here, I’m just saying what the GM said, and what GMs say over and over again (because they make bad decisions all the time; just look at what the Wild’s GM said about his draft picks this weekend). You’re making the same point I am. It was a bad deal. Playing a lot of minutes doesn’t mean anything in of itself. Nevertheless, was the deal made or wasn’t it? Did Pionk get traded for Trouba or didn’t he? Chevy got into a cap pickle, had a need, found an asset that let him off the hook as much as he could swing, and made the move.

If you’re wanting to trade Allen to like Toronto or Tampa Bay or Vegas, yeah man, you’re gonna have to add. A lot. But those aren’t teams you’re trading Allen to anyways. You’re trading him to teams that need a goalie and don’t care about cap space. I cited several teams who fit that description. And ultimately it’s the GMs and not the fans making the call. So I care more about what *they* say and what *they* do than what the fans say or want to do instead.

 

[Colt55]

Allen + Fabbri + Kostin <-> back-up goaltender (+ pick)?

I think we need to hold onto kostin he just turned 20. I think you will see him step up t gis year

 

[Halak Ness Monster]

I'm not too interested in trading Jake Allen unless he wants out.

He had a .916 save % in his final 19 games played this season. He had a .930 save % in his final 10 games.

I really like Allen as a backup. I don't want to go out and get a goalie and possibly wind up with another Chad Johnson. I'd rather play it safe.

 

[Frenzy31]

Same here. I see no reason at all to move him. I am not so sure we would,t have to retain on him anyways, and after you have done that and paid a backup...... you are likely at his cap number.

 

[LetsGoBooze]

I really think the move is let Allen be the backup this upcoming season, and move him next offseason when we will have more cap related issues(Schenn/Pietrangelo). This also will most likely improve Allen's trade value since:

We remove another year from his contract length
His numbers could improve from a backup role

 

[simon IC]

I think people are vastly overestimating how much it is going to take to get rid of Allen. I can think of a handful of teams that have:

1. A lot (or too much) cap space
2. A need for a goalie with starting experience who can play the games

In a league where Neal Pionk was praised as a return for Trouba because he played on a bad team that needed him to play 20+ minutes a night, just being able to play the games goes a long way.

Allen should be playing with a chip on his shoulder, and is clearly in need of a fresh start. He has been brilliant for long stretches, even if his long stretches of very bad play are all anybody remembers.

His cap hit is top-20 for a goalie, but the cap has gone up, his % of cap space has gone down as a result, and - again - his cap hit and term would not be a concern for a cap floor team, especially if their interest is in rebuilding. His contract is also fairly appealing because it has already been negotiated; you don’t have to pay the opportunity cost of getting a goalie on the free agent market. You know what he is going to earn, and for how long. Retaining salary is also an option if necessary, but I wouldn’t expect us to do anything over $1mil, if that.

I wouldn’t expect to get much more than draft picks for him, but I don’t think that we need to attach Fabbri, Kostin, and/or draft picks to get rid of him if our main goal is to not have him on the roster anymore. I’d say a 2nd round pick is a fair price, and I could be talked into liking a combo of lower picks or prospects.

I could see Calgary, Carolina, Columbus, New Jersey, Ottawa, and Vancouver fitting those criteria.

Oh Morty, that sentence! Well played, sir, well played!

 

[simon IC]

Hmm ... Gusev. Let's see. Undersized (5'9") forward, never played an NHL game, Russian flight risk, wants lots of money, present team looking to move him. Ummm ... no thanks!

 

[Ranksu]

I'm not too interested in trading Jake Allen unless he wants out.

He had a .916 save % in his final 19 games played this season. He had a .930 save % in his final 10 games.

I really like Allen as a backup. I don't want to go out and get a goalie and possibly wind up with another Chad Johnson. I'd rather play it safe.

You wanna take a bet Allen will play back-up role .920% average next season?

 

[WeWentBlues]

It cost Toronto a first round pick to move Marleau because they got backed into a corner.

Armstrong should try to free cap now if he can for the Pietrangelo and Schenn extensions.

 

[Ranksu]

I'm not too interested in trading Jake Allen unless he wants out.

He had a .916 save % in his final 19 games played this season. He had a .930 save % in his final 10 games.

I really like Allen as a backup. I don't want to go out and get a goalie and possibly wind up with another Chad Johnson. I'd rather play it safe.

Btw funny that people say Binnington only played half season so he doesn't have longer sample size for deserve long term contract, but in same sentence they people announche Allen was good in last 19 games or final 10 games.

I don't believe Allen wants out. WHO wouldn't like to be at bench and open door for 4.350mill.$?

 

[Ranksu]

It cost Toronto a first round pick to move Marleau because they got backed into a corner.

Armstrong should try to free cap now if he can for the Pietrangelo and Schenn extensions.

Allen + Steen out and we can keep our core players.

 

[Alklha]

Hmm ... Gusev. Let's see. Undersized (5'9") forward, never played an NHL game, Russian flight risk, wants lots of money, present team looking to move him. Ummm ... no thanks!

You only acquire him if he's willing to sign, and the flight risk isn't there because KHL teams can't give him the type of money that he'd get on a mid-range NHL deal.

The upside is significant. He's the same size as Dadonov, had better KHL numbers and had a better World Championships performance. Dodonov has been a 28 goal and 70 point player (70 point pace in his first season) in his two NHL seasons. It's a risk because he hasn't played, but he has way more upside on a 2-3 year deal than anyone else we could add at the likely price.

I doubt that Vegas moves him.

Allen + Steen out and we can keep our core players.

We can keep our core players next season without moving them. The most logical time to move Allen is next summer, and that move alone should allow us to keep our core players.

We're probably stuck with Steen for the two years, which isn't a major issue.

 

[Alklha]

It cost Toronto a first round pick to move Marleau because they got backed into a corner.

Armstrong should try to free cap now if he can for the Pietrangelo and Schenn extensions.

He really doesn't need to worry about it now.

Toronto got backed into a corner because the cap hit of four of their players is going to jump from ~$7m, including bonuses, to over $27m. The cap hit of Pietrangelo and Schenn is going to jump from $11.625m to maybe $17m.

The only contracts that Toronto could move are important roster player (Kadri) or players with negative value (Marleau & Zaitsev?). Buying players out was not an option.

We need to find a way to make space for a ~$5.5m jump in cap to two players. Plus whatever Dunn gets, but a bridge deal is an option there. The talk from last week was the the players wanted to limit to rise of the cap of this summer and next to $2.5m-$3m each year. So we're potentially looking at an $84m cap. Bouwmeester is coming off the books, even if we plan on extending him we can wait until the situation eases, so that is $3.25m off. That will basically cover the rises to the two UFA's.

Then we have the option to buy out Bozak (creates $2.8m+ in space, roster spot to Kyrou for a $2.1m cap space gain) and buying out Allen (creates $2.6m, replace with a $1m option).

That isn't taking into consideration that our current projected roster for next season isn't likely to max out the $81.5m cap. We'll likely make some move, but it's potentally another short term deal that comes off the books before the extensions kick in.

So other teams aren't going to be able to put a gun to our heads when it comes to trade talks. Our cap situation next summer is easier than the Lightning situation was this summer, and they didn't have a problem getting a healthy return for JT Miller.

 

[WeWentBlues]

He really doesn't need to worry about it now.

Toronto got backed into a corner because the cap hit of four of their players is going to jump from ~$7m, including bonuses, to over $27m. The cap hit of Pietrangelo and Schenn is going to jump from $11.625m to maybe $17m.

The only contracts that Toronto could move are important roster player (Kadri) or players with negative value (Marleau & Zaitsev?). Buying players out was not an option.

We need to find a way to make space for a ~$5.5m jump in cap to two players. Plus whatever Dunn gets, but a bridge deal is an option there. The talk from last week was the the players wanted to limit to rise of the cap of this summer and next to $2.5m-$3m each year. So we're potentially looking at an $84m cap. Bouwmeester is coming off the books, even if we plan on extending him we can wait until the situation eases, so that is $3.25m off. That will basically cover the rises to the two UFA's.

Then we have the option to buy out Bozak (creates $2.8m+ in space, roster spot to Kyrou for a $2.1m cap space gain) and buying out Allen (creates $2.6m, replace with a $1m option).

That isn't taking into consideration that our current projected roster for next season isn't likely to max out the $81.5m cap. We'll likely make some move, but it's potentally another short term deal that comes off the books before the extensions kick in.

So other teams aren't going to be able to put a gun to our heads when it comes to trade talks. Our cap situation next summer is easier than the Lightning situation was this summer, and they didn't have a problem getting a healthy return for JT Miller.

Ok you talked me off the ledge.

 

[Weiss1604]

Having watched Niko Mikkola perform incredibly well in all aspects of play at the world championships is it time to move on from Joel Edmondson ? I love Eddie but Mikkola in my opinion has a slightly higher ceiling & being on is ELC will probably cost 3 t0 4 million cheaper than Eddies next contract . Multiple teams are chasing a shut down LD & his value after winning a cup may never be higher .
Also i think it would make sense to trade Jake , numerous teams would be interested as personally i think he could potentially have a bounce back season elsewhere , Carolina maybe an ideal location for him . What would they give us ? Maybe say Haydn Fleury in exchange , who looks to be in a numbers battle there especially with Jake Bean moving up to the NHL next season + they'd be selling low as so far he's not stuck at the NHL level & again is an ideal bounce back candidate with a fresh start & he's Saskatchewan lol . In this scenario we could have Mikkola , Fleury & Bortuzzo as our 5,6,7 on D( in no particular order) .
Just throwing out ideas to maximize cap management ...

 

[Ranksu]

Ok, I'll wait what Army will do, who stays, who leaves and who get what kind of contracts and than re-evaluate where we're at. I just don't believe everything will goes smooth as here has been written down.

 

[WeWentBlues]

Having watched Niko Mikkola perform incredibly well in all aspects of play at the world championships is it time to move on from Joel Edmondson ? I love Eddie but Mikkola in my opinion has a slightly higher ceiling & being on is ELC will probably cost 3 t0 4 million cheaper than Eddies next contract . Multiple teams are chasing a shut down LD & his value after winning a cup may never be higher .
Also i think it would make sense to trade Jake , numerous teams would be interested as personally i think he could potentially have a bounce back season elsewhere , Carolina maybe an ideal location for him . What would they give us ? Maybe say Haydn Fleury in exchange , who looks to be in a numbers battle there especially with Jake Bean moving up to the NHL next season + they'd be selling low as so far he's not stuck at the NHL level & again is an ideal bounce back candidate with a fresh start. In this scenario we could have Mikkola , Fleury & Bortuzzo as our 5,6,7 on D( in no particular order) .
Just throwing out ideas to maximize cap circumvention ...

Agree with everything you said except that last word. Circumvention = bad

Normally I wouldn't be the grammar police but I don't want Bettman getting any ideas and awarding Parayko to the Devils.

 

[Weiss1604]

Agree with everything you said except that last word. Circumvention = bad

Normally I wouldn't be the grammar police but I don't want Bettman getting any ideas and awarding Parayko to the Devils.

Yeah you are right , why did i use that word lol . Should have just said Cap Management , apologies for being a dumbass lol .. Edited lol

 

[Alklha]

Having watched Niko Mikkola perform incredibly well in all aspects of play at the world championships is it time to move on from Joel Edmondson ? I love Eddie but Mikkola in my opinion has a slightly higher ceiling & being on is ELC will probably cost 3 t0 4 million cheaper than Eddies next contract . Multiple teams are chasing a shut down LD & his value after winning a cup may never be higher .
Also i think it would make sense to trade Jake , numerous teams would be interested as personally i think he could potentially have a bounce back season elsewhere , Carolina maybe an ideal location for him . What would they give us ? Maybe say Haydn Fleury in exchange , who looks to be in a numbers battle there especially with Jake Bean moving up to the NHL next season + they'd be selling low as so far he's not stuck at the NHL level & again is an ideal bounce back candidate with a fresh start & he's Saskatchewan lol . In this scenario we could have Mikkola , Fleury & Bortuzzo as our 5,6,7 on D( in no particular order) .
Just throwing out ideas to maximize cap management ...

Carolina have a really cheap owner. While they have just bought a first round pick for $4.25m, I don't see them taking Jake Allen when they are already saddled with an AHL goalie earning $7m+ over the next two years. Jake Allen with two more years at $4.35m, and earning a total of $9.2m, likely carries too much risk to return anything.

Those who are talking about moving Allen this summer... who are we replacing him with? If we're not getting a better goalie, what are we spending the cap space on to make us better and how much worse is our backup going to be?

As for Mikkola, he'll be judged on how he performed in the AHL last season. I don't believe that his performances there have him banging on the door of the NHL. I'm certainly not opposed to moving Edmundson, but that was his worst season in the League. Unless we believe that is the player that he is, moving him at his lowest value isn't ideal. Mikkola is waivers exempt, so let him come to camp and put in a performance where he's basically showing us that we need to make space for him. Otherwise he is in the AHL, hopefully as a first callup option.

I'm hopeful for Mikkola, but let's not forget that there were a couple of other Blues draft picks on that defence. Hakanpää had a more prominent role on the Finnish defence and he never got near the NHL when we brought him over, although has now got himself a contract in Anaheim. Lindbohm looked like he was ahead of Edmundson at a point, but he never had consistency.