Confirmed with Link: Blues sign Brandon Saad

[AjaxManifesto]

Schwartz probably needed a change of scenery. He went through a LOT of personal stuff over the years (sister, dad, injuries)....

 

[Brian39]

You really like Saad at $4.5 over Schwartz @ $5.5? Is it injuries or consistency? I can buy those arguments. Or do you just value cap that much? Schwartz is better point producer, better defensively, better on the cycle and winning puck battles. Schwartz is .1 ppg better over his career. Plus, barring some unknown drama, you got to think Schwartz would give us some hometown discount over an expansion team. It would probably end up less than $1M over Saad.

With a Tarasenko exit coming at some point, I think we had a bigger hole in finishing ability than playmaking ability now and moving forward. Thomas is a clear pass first guy. I like Kyrou more as a perimeter passing winger (who can quickly get himself to the net when the defense opens) than I do as a shooter. ROR can do everything, but he is better passing than shooting. Buch and Perron are good shooting threats, but Perron is 33 and will be well out of his prime by the middle of a 5 year deal. Given the roster makeup, I value Saad's edge in finishing ability more than Schwartz's overall production that comes from improved playmaking ability. In the last 3 years, Schwartz has 114 points compared to Saad's 104 (games played are 180 to 182). In the same time, Saad is up 59-41 in goals. All things being equal and given the current and predicted future roster construction, I value Saad's better finishing ability more than I do Schwartz's better playmaking ability.

I also have more concern about Schwartz's regression than I do Saad's. I trust 6'1" and 200+ lbs playing a barely physical game to age better than 5'10" and 190 lbs playing a slightly physical game. Saad is already a better skater in my opinion and his game is less centered around pinballing around in front of the net with speed.

I don't agree that Schwartz is better defensively. Both players have seen a noticeable drop in their defensive metrics the last couple years, but they are pretty damn similar in terms of overall defensive ability. My eye test this past season didn't favor one over the other and Saad's career-best defensively is better than Schwartz's. While Schwartz is a better cycler and better board battler, I prefer Saad's D zone coverage and ability to skate the puck out of the zone.

At even money, I'd take Schwartz right now with the expectation that I'd probably have preferred Saad in years 4 and 5. For $1M less, I'd bet on Saad for all 5 years.

 

[Falco Lombardi]

I heard somebody call him a bigger better version of Schwartz on the radio. Is that fair?

Not sure about better, but Schwartz is certainly a comp.

He’s got a lower ceiling than Schwartz but a higher floor

 

[Stealth JD]

Gross. I think we'll regret this signing sooner than later. Not because the Blues overpaid, but because Saad is such a 'meh' player and nowhere near worthy of a 5-year investment. That $4.5M is fair, but I think we'd prefer spending it elsewhere after watching him play for the next year or two.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Just to annoy Hawks fans, he's going to have an age 29 season like Steen and Perron.

 

[Brian39]

That's a big problem then if a 60 point player would rather go to an expansion team he has no geographical connection with than stay with his current team for the same contract.

Okay, but that isn't what happened here.

Schwartz has played at a 52 point pace over the last 3 seasons. He has been on pace to reach 60 in one of those three seasons and to be under 45 in the other two. You can't classify him as a 60 point player. He's hit the 60 point mark once in his career, been on pace for it a couple other times and has been well short of it in 2 of the last 3 seasons.

He has also stated numerous times in the last 24 hours that he wanted to be closer to home after the passing of his father. Seattle is much closer to home for him than St. Louis and being in the Pacific division will put him in Western Canada more often than he was with the Blues.

 

[Ginger Papa]

Hi everyone,

Congratulations on the Signing. I can understand some of you still hurting a bit over losing Jaden, he is such a great human being aside from the energy he brings to the Game.

That being said, I really like Saad’s game and see him as an upgrade over Hoffman in regards to his overall play. I personally think the Term is fine and he’ll be a great fit.

As much as I hate seeing the relationship sour, I’m now excited to see what GMDA gets for Tank.

Some memes/jokes for you while we wait…

And one for the Moderators

 

[WeWentBlues]

One factor mentioned was Schwartz needed to be closer to home near his family. Father passed away last fall.

That family has been through a lot.

Yeah it sounded like that was a big reason why and also the challenge of starting a new franchise.

I didn't mean to imply that Schwartz was hell bent on leaving St. Louis or that players want to leave this place in droves. But I do genuinely believe Schwartz was locked in on going to Seattle and an equivalent offer from the Blues would not have changed his decision.

 

[Majorityof1]

His parents lived in Seattle for a short time, and Schwartz stated that he wanted to move closer to his family.

Did you not read where he has connections to Seattle and wanted to be closer to home?

Okay, but that isn't what happened here.

Schwartz has played at a 52 point pace over the last 3 seasons. He has been on pace to reach 60 in one of those three seasons and to be under 45 in the other two. You can't classify him as a 60 point player. He's hit the 60 point mark once in his career, been on pace for it a couple other times and has been well short of it in 2 of the last 3 seasons.

He has also stated numerous times in the last 24 hours that he wanted to be closer to home after the passing of his father. Seattle is much closer to home for him than St. Louis and being in the Pacific division will put him in Western Canada more often than he was with the Blues.

Fair enough. I hadn't heard he wanted to be closer to home. That makes sense given what his family has been through.

 

[BadgersandBlues]

Wow those are great! The Plan Ahea one made me lose it.

 

[Stealth JD]

At least it's a moveable contract in the event Parayko wants out and this team goes into insta-rebuild mode. A team with a top-3 defense of Krug, Faulk & Scandella need as many tradeable assets as possible. So long as they're being picked up for 'free' in free agency and flip-able on the open-market, it helps alleviate some of the pain of guys leaving for nothing.

 

[Brian39]

This isn't a terrible signing, but...

In the flat cap era I feel like the Blues would have been wise to delay their spending on an UFA until next season. With teams going crazy with multi-year contracts during this years free agency and the cap being stagnant, I think there will be great deals on UFAs next offseason. Also having cap space would have given the Blues a better chance to pounce on opportunistic trades during the season. Also Parayko and Perron will need new contracts as well.

I've listed some players scheduled to be UFAs below. It's loaded with talent. Obviously not all of these players will be available, but because of the cap crunch I think many more will make it to UFA than in years past...

Parayko
Perron
Malkin
Giroux
Berkov
Bergeron
Couturier
Zibanejad
Lindholm
Ekholm
Pulock
Ristolainen
Letang
Klingberg
Rakell
Pavelski
Hertl
Rust
Fluery
Kuemper
Giordano
Gaudreau
Forsberg
Trochek
Strome
Kadri
Palat
Domi

Next summer's UFA list always looks incredible in July of this year, but the reality is that the vast majority won't make it to UFA. The Blues currently have $24M in cap space for next summer and it will be stunning if that number doesn't grow by $7.5M with a Tarasenko trade. We have people to re-sign and decisions to make, but I don't think it is worth leaving a noticeable hole in this year's roster that could have been filled for $4.5M based on who may or may not hit free agency next summer.

 

[BadgersandBlues]

Next summer's UFA list always looks incredible in July of this year, but the reality is that the vast majority won't make it to UFA. The Blues currently have $24M in cap space for next summer and it will be stunning if that number doesn't grow by $7.5M by then. We have people to re-sign and decisions to make, but I don't think it is worth leaving a noticeable hole in this year's roster that could have been filled for $4.5M based on who may or may not hit free agency next summer.

Something something count your chickens and all that.

It's true though. Let's see how many of Malkin/Giroux/Forsberg/etc even make it to market. If they do, it's probably b/c they looked horrible. Teams generally lock up their stars. How was the Landeskog free agent frenzy though? huh? HUH?

 

[Mike Liut]

Would you be happy with 23g 27a for 50 pts from Saad? That seems like that’s his career avg.

 

[The Grouch]

Next summer's UFA list always looks incredible in July of this year, but the reality is that the vast majority won't make it to UFA. The Blues currently have $24M in cap space for next summer and it will be stunning if that number doesn't grow by $7.5M with a Tarasenko trade. We have people to re-sign and decisions to make, but I don't think it is worth leaving a noticeable hole in this year's roster that could have been filled for $4.5M based on who may or may not hit free agency next summer.

I disagree! Filling that hole with Saad doesn't move the Blues into contender territory. I think better opportunities exist on the horizon and this signing severely limits the Blues ability to take advantage of that. Armstrong would have been better off going with Bozak and Bonino type players to fill out the roster cheaply and without much term. 24 million sounds like a lot but assuming Parayko and Perron are re-signed and the current RFAs get re-signed that 24 million becomes mostly accounted for.

 

[MoeBartoli]

Based on many of the inflated signings on Day 1, this contract is fair value. Saad is a top 6 player the Blues got for under $5M. Nice job, Army.

 

[Mike Liut]

Fills a huge hole with a potential 25g scorer who plays well defensively

 

[DoubleK81]

Perron put up a point per game plus last year. He has averaged .9055 ppg over the last 4 years, or 74.25 points a year, playing the vast majority of games. I don't care how old he is, how many 70+ point guys are signed at $4M?

Perron is most definitely deserving of more money, but I'd bet that he takes a huge discount again when it comes time to re-sign. The dude clearly loves this city.

 

[BlueDream]

I disagree! Filling that hole with Saad doesn't move the Blues into contender territory. I think better opportunities exist on the horizon and this signing severely limits the Blues ability to take advantage of that. Armstrong would have been better off going with Bozak and Bonino type players to fill out the roster cheaply and without much term. 24 million sounds like a lot but assuming Parayko and Perron are re-signed and the current RFAs get re-signed that 24 million becomes mostly accounted for.

I don’t think this limits much at all.

In a few years when Saad is 31, would he be hard to move with 2 years left at 4.5M? I don’t think so at all. That’s a player who would have plenty of takers.

 

[Meatball]

Once a Hawk, always a Hawk.

But he does fill a need and makes us much better.

 

[TruBlu]

I'm very happy with the Saad signing. The contract is reasonable for both sides, and he's easily able to be moved off if needed. We are starting to recoup our scoring losses and still able to sign upcoming contracts. All the DA haters constantly eat their words with every year that rolls by...

 

[Majorityof1]

I'm very happy with the Saad signing. The contract is reasonable for both sides, and he's easily able to be moved off if needed. We are starting to recoup our scoring losses and still able to sign upcoming contracts. All the DA haters constantly eat their words with every year that rolls by...

Our D is still a mess and we broke even on forwards. How are Army haters eating their words? Let's see how far this team goes before we bib up and dig in on that crow.

 

[SwivelSchwartz]

I like the fact he adds a little more speed to the lineup.

This is scary seeing as he was the slowest player on the avalanche

 

[BlueDream]

This is scary seeing as he was the slowest player on the avalanche

Lol. What are you basing that on?

 

[Thallis]

Pretty whelmed. A hole we needed to fill for a decent price, just not very exciting and hard to imagine it being enough.