Blues Discussion Thread 2018-2019 - Part II

[bleedblue1223]

Anyone else find it odd that Jordan Schmaltz is still unsigned?

It's pretty weird for a fringe player like him to not have a contract at this point. All the other RFAs without a contract are actual contributors in the NHL so their negotiations take a bit more work. But Schmaltz shouldn't be a hard signing.

For all the talk of Gunnarsson or Bouwmeester being traded I have a growing suspicion that Schmaltz isn't on the Blues roster come October. Whether he is traded or just flat out isn't good enough to make the team, I wouldn't be surprised if he was even just waived either.

Yeah, I wonder what the holdup is. Maybe we don't agree on 1-way vs 2-way, maybe he wants a guaranteed NHL salary, even if he's in the minors. Maybe he just isn't in our plans.

 

[Dbrownss]

Anyone else find it odd that Jordan Schmaltz is still unsigned?

It's pretty weird for a fringe player like him to not have a contract at this point. All the other RFAs without a contract are actual contributors in the NHL so their negotiations take a bit more work. But Schmaltz shouldn't be a hard signing.

For all the talk of Gunnarsson or Bouwmeester being traded I have a growing suspicion that Schmaltz isn't on the Blues roster come October. Whether he is traded or just flat out isn't good enough to make the team, I wouldn't be surprised if he was even just waived either.

I cant remember which flappy head reporter said it, but one of them mentioned once training camp sends some scrubs to SA, the salary should clear up

 

[BlueDream]

I cant remember which flappy head reporter said it, but one of them mentioned once training camp sends some scrubs to SA, the salary should clear up

Should that really matter though? As far as I know, we can go over the cap as long as we are under by the start of the season right?

Looks like we still have about $900K available so I don't see why it's such a holdup but maybe they have a plan.

 

[Bobby Orrtuzzo]

Kinda OT but hockey related, what’s the best LEGAL stream to watch games for this season on mobile? I work evenings so I want to actually watch as many games as possible. I’ve thought about just doing NHL TV but I’m STL local so I dont know how (if at all) blackouts play into it.

 

[Dbrownss]

Should that really matter though? As far as I know, we can go over the cap as long as we are under by the start of the season right?

Looks like we still have about $900K available so I don't see why it's such a holdup but maybe they have a plan.

I honestly dont know, just going off of what was said. Schmaltz cant really hold out for anything except a 1 way. Which shouldn't be a problem. He wont clear waivers

 

[STL fan in MN]

Anyone else find it odd that Jordan Schmaltz is still unsigned?

It's pretty weird for a fringe player like him to not have a contract at this point. All the other RFAs without a contract are actual contributors in the NHL so their negotiations take a bit more work. But Schmaltz shouldn't be a hard signing.

For all the talk of Gunnarsson or Bouwmeester being traded I have a growing suspicion that Schmaltz isn't on the Blues roster come October. Whether he is traded or just flat out isn't good enough to make the team, I wouldn't be surprised if he was even just waived either.

It is a little odd. I can only assume Schmaltz wants something in his contract the Blues are currently saying no to. Who will blink first? Who knows. I’d guess it’s that Schmaltz wants a one-way contract and the Blues are holding firm on a two-way.

Either way, he’s waiver eligible now though so things may be coming to a crossroads regardless.

 

[Robb_K]

I hope The Blues offer Schmaltz a 1-way, and he accepts it. I'd hate to see him traded for a 3rd or 4th Rounder, or just waived and lost. It's bad enough that when injuries hit, The Blues bring up marginal NHLers. I'd rather see Schmaltz get those minutes.

 

[PiggySmalls]

Kinda OT but hockey related, what’s the best LEGAL stream to watch games for this season on mobile? I work evenings so I want to actually watch as many games as possible. I’ve thought about just doing NHL TV but I’m STL local so I dont know how (if at all) blackouts play into it.

If you have Dish or Direct TV, both have apps that stream. I use my dish app often to stream, between that app and NBCSports app, I am pretty well covered.

 

[Bobby Orrtuzzo]

If you have Dish or Direct TV, both have apps that stream. I use my dish app often to stream, between that app and NBCSports app, I am pretty well covered.

I have charter. Now that I think about it though, I think they have an app as well.

 

[The Note in MI]

Kinda OT but hockey related, what’s the best LEGAL stream to watch games for this season on mobile? I work evenings so I want to actually watch as many games as possible. I’ve thought about just doing NHL TV but I’m STL local so I dont know how (if at all) blackouts play into it.

Best options legally are going to be your cable or satellite provider assuming that you have FSMW for FSGO and NBC Sports for Live Extra. That will get you every game I believe. You have to sign in with a cable provider for that and I’m 99% sure blackouts aren’t a problem.

NHL.tv is trash if you are local because it blacks out every time, unless you want other games. If you’re out of the FSMW viewing area it would be good and is probably going to be the best in terms of content.

FSGO now has a replay option for almost all content so it can be watched on demand, or you can choose to start the game live or restart at the beginning. This has been a boon for me. (traverse games are available in the replay section for those with FSGO FYI)

In terms of illegal, haha well, there’s an absolute ton of content available for those who have the patience to search for it.

 

[ManyIdeas]

I have charter. Now that I think about it though, I think they have an app as well.

You should have a Spectrum/Charter account, and you CAN use FoxSportsGo apps(android, presumably apple as well)/tv with that login. No blackouts from my memory.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Lets just go along with the narrative that ROR is a PP specialist, and that's where he gets the bulk of his production. Considering our PP, it would be good to get players that succeed on the PP.

In reality, those numbers are heavily influenced by linemates and usage, just like in Schenn's case. When a players moves from 1 team to another, you can't put much stock into those numbers.

If he's a PP specialist (like Schenn) the Blues will ruin him and make him ONLY a 5 on 5 70 point scorer. The PP is cursed.

 

[wannabebluesplayer]

If Yeo were to falter this year with this roster, and it's not a Jake Allen problem, will Armstrong relieve him of his job as well? IF, and it's a big if, he would be fired, who would you want as coach? I was reading THN's article about 5 coaches on the hot seat and was not really surprised Yeo wasn't on the list but I thought he might get an honorable mention. Link is below for those interested. They had Quenneville, Boudreau, Babcock, Reirden, and Cooper. Of those 5, if any or all of them would get released, I'd definitely want Cooper to takeover the Blues. Babcock would be #2, followed by Quenneville. I would take any of those 3 over Yeo. I want to give Yeo his shot with a revamped roster, but if the power play is struggling again and the players seem disinterested, then Yeo needs to go. I don't want to see any more prime years of Tarasenko, Schwartz, Schenn, Pietrangelo, etc. wasted.

Which five coaches will face the most pressure this season?

 

[542365]

If Yeo were to falter this year with this roster, and it's not a Jake Allen problem, will Armstrong relieve him of his job as well? IF, and it's a big if, he would be fired, who would you want as coach? I was reading THN's article about 5 coaches on the hot seat and was not really surprised Yeo wasn't on the list but I thought he might get an honorable mention. Link is below for those interested. They had Quenneville, Boudreau, Babcock, Reirden, and Cooper. Of those 5, if any or all of them would get released, I'd definitely want Cooper to takeover the Blues. Babcock would be #2, followed by Quenneville. I would take any of those 3 over Yeo. I want to give Yeo his shot with a revamped roster, but if the power play is struggling again and the players seem disinterested, then Yeo needs to go. I don't want to see any more prime years of Tarasenko, Schwartz, Schenn, Pietrangelo, etc. wasted.

Which five coaches will face the most pressure this season?

The article is about coaches under the most pressure this season, not necessarily the "hot seat". I don't think Babcock, or Cooper are on the hot seat, but there is definitely a lot of pressure as they have top teams and are expected to win. I don't think Quenneville will ever leave Chicago. He'll probably be bumped up to the front office if they tire of his coaching and want to make a change. Definitely don't want Boudreau, I'm indifferent on Reirden. Don't know a whole lot about him. I expect if there is a coaching change in the next year or two that Drew Bannister will be the man.

 

[PiggySmalls]

If this roster remains overall healthy and Allen is at least league average. Yet Blues faulter again, I can see Yeo's days become numbered. If that did happen, I would like to see Alain Vigneault. I like his style and could see the offense being more lethal running his system.

 

[Majorityof1]

If Yeo were to falter this year with this roster, and it's not a Jake Allen problem, will Armstrong relieve him of his job as well? IF, and it's a big if, he would be fired, who would you want as coach? I was reading THN's article about 5 coaches on the hot seat and was not really surprised Yeo wasn't on the list but I thought he might get an honorable mention. Link is below for those interested. They had Quenneville, Boudreau, Babcock, Reirden, and Cooper. Of those 5, if any or all of them would get released, I'd definitely want Cooper to takeover the Blues. Babcock would be #2, followed by Quenneville. I would take any of those 3 over Yeo. I want to give Yeo his shot with a revamped roster, but if the power play is struggling again and the players seem disinterested, then Yeo needs to go. I don't want to see any more prime years of Tarasenko, Schwartz, Schenn, Pietrangelo, etc. wasted.

Which five coaches will face the most pressure this season?

I take any over Yeo. Even if we make the conference finals, I fire Yeo if Babcock, Cooper or Coach Q are available. But this article isn't about coaches on the hot seat. Most of the five are bullet-proof for another year at least. It would take a disastrous showing or multiple poor showings for them to get fired.

 

[Majorityof1]

Cold dose of reality or failure of statistical modeling? You be the judge. Interesting article at the athletic that uses a statistical model to predict points for all teams for the coming NHL season. We end up a bubble team at 18th in the league, which even surprised the guy who created the model. He goes on to analyze why the model made that prediction. It is 100% in-line with my thoughts. First, our schedule is brutal....just brutal. Not just playing in the central, which is tough enough. I didn't know this but we are the less rested team 10 times more often than we are the more rested team. We have 4 stretches with 6 games in 9 days. Add the quality of the central and that might be the worst schedule in the league.

But that's not the real reason we are predicted to finish 18th in the league according to this model. We have the 10th best forward group (9th best top 9), 7th best D (5th best top 4). But our goaltending is bottom 3 in the league according to this model. That is exactly the reason I am less optimistic than anyone here about our chances (I'd also add poor coaching of the PP).

The article does admit there are flaws some flaws in the model that might be good for the Blues, including the inconsistency at predicting goaltending and the under-valuing of defensive forwards like RoR. He mentions other models which have us much higher. So overall, its a very fair assessment of the team and model. Good read.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Eh, with any statistical model it's important to understand the reasons. Like you mentioned that one was very pessimistic on Allen, which is fair. You then have to factor in the level of error in the model. It could project us at 18, but what's the high/low? For us to compete, Allen has to be average or just slightly below average, he can't be bottom 5.

The scheduling is a good point as well, something I haven't really looked at.

 

[Dbrownss]

I was pleased with Doms article. I do like seeing our forward group valued that high, even with room for improvement if Chemistry builds between guys. He's spot on with Allen, it's an absolute sink or swim. The skaters in front of him can no longer be an excuse. I'm concerned with coaching and the PP. I know it's probably foolish to put any weight on the prospect tournament, but that looked like straight up Blues hockey to me....

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Cold dose of reality or failure of statistical modeling? You be the judge. Interesting article at the athletic that uses a statistical model to predict points for all teams for the coming NHL season. We end up a bubble team at 18th in the league, which even surprised the guy who created the model. He goes on to analyze why the model made that prediction. It is 100% in-line with my thoughts. First, our schedule is brutal....just brutal. Not just playing in the central, which is tough enough. I didn't know this but we are the less rested team 10 times more often than we are the more rested team. We have 4 stretches with 6 games in 9 days. Add the quality of the central and that might be the worst schedule in the league.

But that's not the real reason we are predicted to finish 18th in the league according to this model. We have the 10th best forward group (9th best top 9), 7th best D (5th best top 4). But our goaltending is bottom 3 in the league according to this model. That is exactly the reason I am less optimistic than anyone here about our chances (I'd also add poor coaching of the PP).

The article does admit there are flaws some flaws in the model that might be good for the Blues, including the inconsistency at predicting goaltending and the under-valuing of defensive forwards like RoR. He mentions other models which have us much higher. So overall, its a very fair assessment of the team and model. Good read.

This model assumes Jake Allen and Chad Johnson are the goalies all season. I'm certain that if they were performing at a bottom 3 in the league level, there would be a change. We all see the same thing. Armstrong sees it, too. Although the cost would be unpleasant I'm sure, I have no doubt he has already explored options for moving on from Allen. But that can't be Plan A or Plan B.

I'm not one that thinks Husso is going to be the savior, at least not this early.

Its interesting, Dom's model was down on St Louis last season, too...even at the time when they were tied with Tampa for most points in the league. (During that time, Allen was playing fantastic...but we've all forgotten because of how bad he played afterward.) I think he's been fearing the ire of Blues fans again. Last year's model, it was partly because he had Schenn projected MUCH lower than his actual performance.

Personally, I hope all the models predict the Blues to miss the playoffs. I know this roster is deep, and has addressed its major holes. Goaltending is really the only place we may yet see a move, and I've seen Allen play at a high level enough times to know that he could have a great season. It wouldn't surprise me at all. But he could also prove that he just doesn't have the mental make-up to be the guy. None of it matters until they do it on the ice.

 

[The Note in MI]

This model assumes Jake Allen and Chad Johnson are the goalies all season. I'm certain that if they were performing at a bottom 3 in the league level, there would be a change. We all see the same thing. Armstrong sees it, too. Although the cost would be unpleasant I'm sure, I have no doubt he has already explored options for moving on from Allen. But that can't be Plan A or Plan B.

I'm not one that thinks Husso is going to be the savior, at least not this early.

Its interesting, Dom's model was down on St Louis last season, too...even at the time when they were tied with Tampa for most points in the league. (During that time, Allen was playing fantastic...but we've all forgotten because of how bad he played afterward.) I think he's been fearing the ire of Blues fans again. Last year's model, it was partly because he had Schenn projected MUCH lower than his actual performance.

Personally, I hope all the models predict the Blues to miss the playoffs. I know this roster is deep, and has addressed its major holes. Goaltending is really the only place we may yet see a move, and I've seen Allen play at a high level enough times to know that he could have a great season. It wouldn't surprise me at all. But he could also prove that he just doesn't have the mental make-up to be the guy. None of it matters until they do it on the ice.

Unfortunately the models in doms article he references all have blues top 10 with a couple in 6th

 

[Majorityof1]

This model assumes Jake Allen and Chad Johnson are the goalies all season. I'm certain that if they were performing at a bottom 3 in the league level, there would be a change. We all see the same thing. Armstrong sees it, too. Although the cost would be unpleasant I'm sure, I have no doubt he has already explored options for moving on from Allen. But that can't be Plan A or Plan B.

I'm not one that thinks Husso is going to be the savior, at least not this early.

Its interesting, Dom's model was down on St Louis last season, too...even at the time when they were tied with Tampa for most points in the league. (During that time, Allen was playing fantastic...but we've all forgotten because of how bad he played afterward.) I think he's been fearing the ire of Blues fans again. Last year's model, it was partly because he had Schenn projected MUCH lower than his actual performance.

Personally, I hope all the models predict the Blues to miss the playoffs. I know this roster is deep, and has addressed its major holes. Goaltending is really the only place we may yet see a move, and I've seen Allen play at a high level enough times to know that he could have a great season. It wouldn't surprise me at all. But he could also prove that he just doesn't have the mental make-up to be the guy. None of it matters until they do it on the ice.

If Allen/Johnson aren't our tandem all season and Husso isn't the answer, then who comes in? I don't know of any goalies worth a damn that are available. Are Lehtonen, MAson, Lack, Pavelec or other out of work guys any better? If we make a move for a guy like Schneider who may be pushed out, where do we get the cap space? How astronomical would the cost be to grab a young cheap guy like Saros? Would it be worth paying with Husso in the wings? Maybe we can grab a pending UFA at the deadline if their team is out of it (Talbot, Elliott, Varlamov), but we'd have to be in the race ourselves to make it worth while. I just don't see a lot of viable options. We can hope that Armstrong has a plan B or C if our goalies falter, but that does not make it so. So until we know otherwise, goaltending is a huge concern.

 

[Stealth JD]

i think most of the statistical models are garbage, quite honestly. They don't capture the rise (or collapse) of the team until after it happens, and rely too much on averages (i know...imagine that, being a 'statistical' model and all) and past performance. I haven't really been all that impressed with Dom's work, as sports is about the unpredictable, not the results of some nerd's mass simulation of often misinterpreted data.

Though he is right that our goaltending situation is garbage. I don't need simulations to see that.

 

[David Dennison]

This model assumes Jake Allen and Chad Johnson are the goalies all season. I'm certain that if they were performing at a bottom 3 in the league level, there would be a change. We all see the same thing. Armstrong sees it, too. Although the cost would be unpleasant I'm sure, I have no doubt he has already explored options for moving on from Allen. But that can't be Plan A or Plan B.

I'm not one that thinks Husso is going to be the savior, at least not this early.

Its interesting, Dom's model was down on St Louis last season, too...even at the time when they were tied with Tampa for most points in the league. (During that time, Allen was playing fantastic...but we've all forgotten because of how bad he played afterward.) I think he's been fearing the ire of Blues fans again. Last year's model, it was partly because he had Schenn projected MUCH lower than his actual performance.

Personally, I hope all the models predict the Blues to miss the playoffs. I know this roster is deep, and has addressed its major holes. Goaltending is really the only place we may yet see a move, and I've seen Allen play at a high level enough times to know that he could have a great season. It wouldn't surprise me at all. But he could also prove that he just doesn't have the mental make-up to be the guy. None of it matters until they do it on the ice.

We'll that is obvious, but what if the Blues are a bubble team like he is projecting?

I still think Schwartz getting injured and our lack of forward depth was just as big a factor in our mid season slide last year as our goaltending. Schwarz is still an injury risk, but our depth is much, much, much better than last year. The regular season is a marathon and we are much better prepared this season. If I were a betting man (I am), I would take the over on what he has us at.

The thing I did take note of in the article is the rough scheduling and SOS. The central has two cup contenders, 3 other teams who will probably be in the race and the Hawks who will play us tough.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

If Allen/Johnson aren't our tandem all season and Husso isn't the answer, then who comes in? I don't know of any goalies worth a damn that are available. Are Lehtonen, MAson, Lack, Pavelec or other out of work guys any better? If we make a move for a guy like Schneider who may be pushed out, where do we get the cap space? How astronomical would the cost be to grab a young cheap guy like Saros? Would it be worth paying with Husso in the wings? Maybe we can grab a pending UFA at the deadline if their team is out of it (Talbot, Elliott, Varlamov), but we'd have to be in the race ourselves to make it worth while. I just don't see a lot of viable options. We can hope that Armstrong has a plan B or C if our goalies falter, but that does not make it so. So until we know otherwise, goaltending is a huge concern.

Eh. I don't know who Armstrong would target. I'd expect Husso would be the first option. (I personally think his ceiling may be below that of franchise savior, but its certainly conceivable he could be good enough to steady the ship this year.) I guess I'm just a little jaded from the constant trumpeting of the "next" goalie prospect for the Blues dating back for decades now. Its Husso today. But it was Binnington before that. And Copley. And Allen. And Bishop. Etc. I remember folks getting excited for Toivenen. Its almost instantaneous with a guy making it to the NHL that part of the fanbase start anticipating the top goalie prospect to be even better.

Beyond that, I don't know who Armstrong would target, but I am fully confident he has explored options. Much like the moves for centers, these things are the result of conversations that have been going on for a long time. Maybe he picks up someone at the deadline (similar to the Ryan Miller move) from a non-contender. I'm sure it would suck to pay assets for someone to take the rest of Allen's contract, but there are teams that would be willing to do that, that have the cap space. The Blues have a cupboard full of nice assets. I don't want to part with any of them, but if that's what it takes to solve this problem, it would be the right move. The rest of the team is ready to contend.

Armstrong is a lot less reactionary than fans are. The smart move is to let Allen play it out this year and mature as an NHL starter. But it could fail, and if it does he'll be gone.