GDT: Blues @ Blackhawks

[The Note in MI]

The Blues play since January can be attributed to the loss of none other than PocketNines. Come back my friend, for the Blues need you, and thus we need you.

 

[GoldenSeal]

The Blues are slated to make history. They have to in order to win the Lord Stanley if for any other reason, they have never won it and are the last of the expansion six not to win.

This does matter to the team as a whole. It matters to Steve Ott and to Ryan Miller and to each and every one of them, if it didn't, the team would not have posted 111 points, two points off from tying for the #1 spot in the league. And alot of this was done before Ryan Miller, before Steve Ott.

People are using Tarasenko's injury as an excuse. Bullsnot. The team is coasting, pure and simple. They understand these games don't matter, regardless what history says of past winners. These Blues are not going to win by following in the footsteps of history; they are going to make their own steps and trying to follow the footsteps of others have led to collosal disappoints and failures of many stripes, including the hiring of Mike Keenan.

These Blues are not going to follow history. And these aren't the same Blues who everyone is discounting them for. When they get serious, they move with purpose and precision. When a netminder fails, Brian Elliott has been there to pick up the slack. With Ryan Miller, we now have both an extra gear and a calm, focused voice in the lockerroom. If Ken Hitchcock can coach these guys like he did the Stars, and that 111 points did not just magically come out of thin air or arrived unearned, this might be the team the true blue, bleeding blue fans have waited almost half a century for.

Remember, no one believed the Kings would go anywhere in the playoffs and suddenly they made their run.

It's time for these Blues to make their own. History is waiting for them to finish their story with them hoisting of Lord Stanley, so they can begin their next chapter.

And this may be the year to see that.

 

[ManyIdeas]

Where did P9 go, anyway?

 

[Celtic Note]

How many have given up on this team? I see a lot of negativity (seems like fans don't like loosing for some reason) but have all those people given up on the Blues or are there people extrapolating the negativity into the notion people have given up? Apparently there cannot be anywhere on the continuum for people to simultaneously believe in the team and be hard on them. You either think things are rosy now and in the future or you are displeased now and thus don't believe in this team.

Why does our HF community need to get into these discussions of extremes and constantly get at people for different opinions? Can't we atleast try to understand each other and respect each other?

 

[superblues]

Where did P9 go, anyway?

Long story, ask Easton.

 

[BlueDream]

Just took a look at the Ducks forum after their loss to the Oilers.

They are even more negative and have already eliminated their own team from the playoffs. Yikes.

Guess that's how it goes in sports.

 

[The Note in MI]

The Blues are slated to make history. They have to in order to win the Lord Stanley if for any other reason, they have never won it and are the last of the expansion six not to win.

This does matter to the team as a whole. It matters to Steve Ott and to Ryan Miller and to each and every one of them, if it didn't, the team would not have posted 111 points, two points off from tying for the #1 spot in the league. And alot of this was done before Ryan Miller, before Steve Ott.

People are using Tarasenko's injury as an excuse. Bullsnot. The team is coasting, pure and simple. They understand these games don't matter, regardless what history says of past winners. These Blues are not going to win by following in the footsteps of history; they are going to make their own steps and trying to follow the footsteps of others have led to collosal disappoints and failures of many stripes, including the hiring of Mike Keenan.

These Blues are not going to follow history. And these aren't the same Blues who everyone is discounting them for. When they get serious, they move with purpose and precision. When a netminder fails, Brian Elliott has been there to pick up the slack. With Ryan Miller, we now have both an extra gear and a calm, focused voice in the lockerroom. If Ken Hitchcock can coach these guys like he did the Stars, and that 111 points did not just magically come out of thin air or arrived unearned, this might be the team the true blue, bleeding blue fans have waited almost half a century for.

Remember, no one believed the Kings would go anywhere in the playoffs and suddenly they made their run.

It's time for these Blues to make their own. History is waiting for them to finish their story with them hoisting of Lord Stanley, so they can begin their next chapter.

And this may be the year to see that.

You should post more often.

---------------

Bruins will win the presidents Trophy if they win three of their final four games in any fashion. We will have to win out and/or hope for a collapse/couple losses by Boston if we want home ice through the playoffs. Big deal? I don't really think so, but it would certainly be nice.

Western conference home ice odds got a nice boost today with Anaheim losing in regulation and the Colorado OT loss. We need just 5 points for a Central division title, and 6 to lock up the West.

We can win 2 games and lose two in OT/SO or win 3 and lose 1 and still clinch the West.

Tuesday Washington: team that is pretty much done, plus Halak will get destroyed by us.

Thursday Minnesota: we haven't lost in two years. They don't have their starter back yet, and Bryz isn't exactly a brick wall. Will likely only be playing for which powerhouse they get round 1, us or ANA/SJ.

Friday Dallas: team that scares me the most for the last few games. Fast and fighting for a playoff spot, we lose to them, that might actually bump them up to a series vs a California team and us vs Minnesota. Possible win win situation.

Sunday Detroit: team that's pretty much in playoffs already, will get Boston or Pittsburgh. Doubt they care too much who they get. Also possible they'll need a win vs us to get into playoffs, worst case scenario.

Should be a good week. The Masters is on Thursday, but Then again I do have a block test that I haven't started studying for and it's on Tuesday.

 

[The Note in MI]

How many have given up on this team? I see a lot of negativity (seems like fans don't like loosing for some reason) but have all those people given up on the Blues or are there people extrapolating the negativity into the notion people have given up? Apparently there cannot be anywhere on the continuum for people to simultaneously believe in the team and be hard on them. You either think things are rosy now and in the future or you are displeased now and thus don't believe in this team.

Why does our HF community need to get into these discussions of extremes and constantly get at people for different opinions? Can't we atleast try to understand each other and respect each other?

You must have missed the posts that had not only criticism but were also saying that the team was going to fail in the playoffs once again. Not even winning a first round. There's a difference between saying you're concerned with their play as of late and completely jumping over the edge.

It's not as polarizing as you just made it, but there really were a lot of the extremes earlier today.

 

[The Note in MI]

Just took a look at the Ducks forum after their loss to the Oilers.

They are even more negative and have already eliminated their own team from the playoffs. Yikes.

Guess that's how it goes in sports.

They did lose to the Oilers...lol could be worse guys!

Triple post FTW

 

[Majorityof1]

Extreme positivity is as unfounded as extreme negativity. The Blues are a great team and have a good shot at winning the cup. That is true. However, they have also showed some lackluster effort and have major holes in their game (Jax/Polak can't transition, inconsistent secondary scoring,missed opportunities from missed shots, lack of concentration or off-nights by goalies leads to soft goals, etc). That is also true.

Rainbows, unicorns and wishful thinking won't bring a cup to St. Louis. Smart hockey, inspired play, digging deep, and getting it together will. So when I criticize the Blues, I am not saying they are horrible and have no shot in the playoffs. I am not stopping from being a fan of them. I am pointing out where they can improve and hoping they live up to their potential. I am hoping they get the cup their long time fans so richly deserve. I have been a fan for 20+ years. I will be a fan for many more. Fans like me have seen too many great Blues teams fall short in the playoffs, and not just short but very short, to be blindly optimistic.

 

[Dbrownss]

Sharks were shut out by nashville, who smoked Anaheim and then Anaheim lost to the oilers, plus avs lost to an empty shell Pittsburgh team. Now as embarrassing as this is, I've heard the argument that it doesn't matter to lose to non contender teams and while I agree, both of the California teams are hunting for points so that is reassuring about the blues.

I'm not abandoning ship but as I've said and others have mentioned, this isn't over losing games, it's the manner in how we lose. It seems like the blues game plan isn't effective anymore and they are not adjusting. It's extremely obvious with the power play. This is what worries me, Not a couple loses.

 

[GoldenSeal]

Extreme positivity is as unfounded as extreme negativity. The Blues are a great team and have a good shot at winning the cup. That is true. However, they have also showed some lackluster effort and have major holes in their game (Jax/Polak can't transition, inconsistent secondary scoring,missed opportunities from missed shots, lack of concentration or off-nights by goalies leads to soft goals, etc). That is also true.

Rainbows, unicorns and wishful thinking won't bring a cup to St. Louis. Smart hockey, inspired play, digging deep, and getting it together will. So when I criticize the Blues, I am not saying they are horrible and have no shot in the playoffs. I am not stopping from being a fan of them. I am pointing out where they can improve and hoping they live up to their potential. I am hoping they get the cup their long time fans so richly deserve. I have been a fan for 20+ years. I will be a fan for many more. Fans like me have seen too many great Blues teams fall short in the playoffs, and not just short but very short, to be blindly optimistic.

There are 30 teams that play every season for a shot at Lord Stanley. What are the odds that any one of those 30 will win it in a given year?

That statistic alone should tell you that negativity and positivity are non-factors in this. Better teams have lost and worse teams have won.

Every year that statistic is reset for the next season. And the next. And the next.

If the Hawks are such a great team, why aren't they winning a Cup every year or every other year. What about the Bruins? The Ducks? Where are the Sharks two or three Cups?

It just doesn't work that way.

Now with that said, the Blues ARE quite different in this respect that no one talks about. So I shall now:

To date the Blues in their 47 year existance have had, as owners:

Salomon
Ralston Purina, who padlocked the arena and did NOT attend the draft.
Ornest
Lauries
SCP/Towerbrook
Stillman

Now I may have missed an owner, but I think for now, this will do.

Count them.

In the 47 year history of the Blues, they have changed hands SIX TIMES. Name another team who has won the Cup in the NHL to have changed owners that many times. Six times starting over. Six times having the team blown up and starting from go, with the Lauries being the worst of the offenders in recent history.

The fanbase is not even paying attention to this. Their frustrations, if you look at this in this manner, are totally unfounded. The fact this team continues to change owners and yet can make the playoffs more ofthen than not is a true statement to the city of St. Louis, moreso than they realize.

But everyone wants a championship. Understandable.

Now look at teams like the Hawks, Bruins, Wings, etc. How many times have they changed owners to people who aren't members of the original family of owners?

Success is BUILT OVER TIME.

A team that is competitive every year, that makes the moves and spends the money every year, that plays at the top level every year has a far better chance statistically to win the Cup. This is why teams like the Hawks, Wings, etc. have Cups. It's just basic math.

It took five, six years to build a team within range of having a shot at the Cup.

That alone, win, lose or draw is amazing. And that can never be taken away from the team, the organization or the players.

And they've done it SIX TIMES. But right when things are about to hit paydirt, they change owners and start over.

I believe Stillman is the owner where this all changes.

So, I ask you: Why not the Blues?

 

[LGB51]

The Blues play since January can be attributed to the loss of none other than PocketNines. Come back my friend, for the Blues need you, and thus we need you.

Lol, he's only been gone since round the Olympic break, hopefully he comes back as soon as he's able.

 

[BlueDream]

Extreme positivity is as unfounded as extreme negativity. The Blues are a great team and have a good shot at winning the cup. That is true. However, they have also showed some lackluster effort and have major holes in their game (Jax/Polak can't transition, inconsistent secondary scoring,missed opportunities from missed shots, lack of concentration or off-nights by goalies leads to soft goals, etc). That is also true.

Rainbows, unicorns and wishful thinking won't bring a cup to St. Louis. Smart hockey, inspired play, digging deep, and getting it together will. So when I criticize the Blues, I am not saying they are horrible and have no shot in the playoffs. I am not stopping from being a fan of them. I am pointing out where they can improve and hoping they live up to their potential. I am hoping they get the cup their long time fans so richly deserve. I have been a fan for 20+ years. I will be a fan for many more. Fans like me have seen too many great Blues teams fall short in the playoffs, and not just short but very short, to be blindly optimistic.

You are comparing a fan's opinion of a team vs. the things the team actually does on the ice which have nothing to do with each other. Constant criticism won't win a cup either.

There will never be a team that CAN'T improve at something, so of course the Blues aren't perfect. But it's the fact that some fans seem to expect perfectionism and find things to complain about when in reality they are pretty much non-issues to be perfectly honest. For example, there are some people that act as if the Blues are turnover machines when we give the puck away far fewer than any team in the NHL. It's just ridiculous to read sometimes. Realism tells me that the Blues are a very good team that we shouldn't take for granted too much. But, they are still criticized for the failures of Blues teams from 12 years ago as if they had any hand in that. We're all frustrated that we haven't seen a cup yet, but I don't really understand the point of taking the anger of the past out on what is basically a new team, I mean sure they have lost in the playoffs 2 years straight but that came against the same team that has our number. I'm not ready to call these guys choke artists yet. Instead I'll simply enjoy the ride and see what happens. If they fail in the playoffs, then my criticism will be unleashed. Until then, these final 4 regular seasons truly aren't that big of a deal.

 

[LongLiveTheNote]

Tonight, I did a trend analysis of the Blues season in 6 game blocks of wins and losses, i.e. games 1-6, 7-12, etc. The worst the Blues have done over any stretch of 6 consecutive games that I analyzed is 3 wins and 3 losses, a .500 record (this has happened 5 times out of 13 this season). The current 6 game block is 3 & 3, so not a serious cause for concern on its own. The overall trend however is a little more concerning. Over the whole season, the Blues are currently trending at 2.1 losses per 6 games, up from a season low of 1.6 per 6 games.

The more alarming trend applies to our scoring. Considering the whole season, the Blues are currently trending at an average of 2.4 GF per game, down from a season high average of 4 GF per game. Goals against have basically been flat all season, from 2.4 to 2.2 GA per game.

That our scoring has taken such a beating gives me great concern going into the playoffs, especially when scoring has traditionally been our Achilles heel in the post season. I suspect scoring trends downward for most teams as the season wears on, but I doubt it's quite the nosedive the Blues scoring appears to have taken.

I wish I was set up to analyze the other 29 teams in a similar fashion. If anybody knows a place I can download data sets of Wins, Losses, GF and GA, I'm all ears. I will nose around NHL.com some more.

Ahh, a fellow analytics nerd. I've been applying for some jobs in that field (graduate in May with an IT Service Management degree), but mostly for basketball.

I would have to assume that there is an advanced statistics site out there for hockey, 82games.com is grrrreat for basketball. I'll see what I can find.

EDIT: try http://www.extraskater.com or http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ ......both looked legit with sortable categories.

 

[illninofan*]

Best case scenario for me is to win the central, drop behind Anaheim/SJ/Winner of the Pacific and then we play Minnesota in the first round.

 

[LongLiveTheNote]

Best case scenario for me is to win the central, drop behind Anaheim/SJ/Winner of the Pacific and then we play Minnesota in the first round.

Careful what you wish for, I'd rather play Dallas in the first round and have home ice against the Pacific winner if it were to get to that point.

 

[illninofan*]

Careful what you wish for, I'd rather play Dallas in the first round and have home ice against the Pacific winner if it were to get to that point.

True, I guess I'm assuming the worst when it comes to Steen and Tarasenko though. I feel like we could beat Minnesota even without those two. Dallas, we'll definitely need Steen.

Hopefully Steen is ready to go by the playoffs if it is something serious.

 

[LongLiveTheNote]

True, I guess I'm assuming the worst when it comes to Steen and Tarasenko though. I feel like we could beat Minnesota even without those two. Dallas, we'll definitely need Steen.

Hopefully Steen is ready to go by the playoffs if it is something serious.

I will give you this, after looking at those advanced stats sites above, Seguin and Benn are ranked 4th and 5th respectively as the best even strength scorers per 60 minutes of ice time (2.88/60 and 2.85/60). The other pair of teammates in the top 5? Getzlaf is 1st at 3.13/60 and Perry is 3rd at 2.92/60. Kinda scary to think about that.

I realize that it's the teams that make up the difference in the records, but in the playoffs there tend to be more lower scoring games, so having guys who can score is clutch.

It's a conundrum in the fact that do we want the better matchup to have a better chance to move on, or do we want the harder team first and make it easier down the road.

Hopefully that wasn't terribly confusing. For what it's worth Steen is 15th and Tarasenko is 16th both at 2.42/60, which is probably a good indicator as to why we haven't been scoring nearly as much lately with them out.

 

[sup bro*]

Agree, but they play Dallas or Phoenix first rounf. They can get on a roll there. Also teams like the Hawks are built for more the regular season and will have a much tougher time this year because the teams got much tougher. The Blues are built for the playoffs. They are a tough team with a lot of depth and top defense and goaltending. They come hard on forecheck and backcheck. Grind teams out until they're black and blue.

thank you for that.

 

[superblues]

Ahh, a fellow analytics nerd. I've been applying for some jobs in that field (graduate in May with an IT Service Management degree), but mostly for basketball.

I would have to assume that there is an advanced statistics site out there for hockey, 82games.com is grrrreat for basketball. I'll see what I can find.

EDIT: try http://www.extraskater.com or http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ ......both looked legit with sortable categories.

I just want to quantify whether or not the sky is falling and to what degree. Thanks and good luck with the job search.

 

[Oberyn]

Agree, but they play Dallas or Phoenix first rounf. They can get on a roll there. Also teams like the Hawks are built for more the regular season and will have a much tougher time this year because the teams got much tougher. The Blues are built for the playoffs. They are a tough team with a lot of depth and top defense and goaltending. They come hard on forecheck and backcheck. Grind teams out until they're black and blue.

Hawks won the cup last year and the Blues took a first round exit. To say we're built for the playoffs and the Hawks aren't is just ridiculous.

 

[JustOneB4IDie]

As infrequent as I post I for one haven't given up on the Blues, been following this franchise for way too long with no cup but I still believe our time is close. However, the lack of scoring right now with the playoffs looming is a concern and I'm sure I am not alone in that assessment right now. The Lack of a true difference maker Centerman is a painfully obvious weakness.

 

[BigB]

The Blues are slated to make history. They have to in order to win the Lord Stanley if for any other reason, they have never won it and are the last of the expansion six not to win.

This does matter to the team as a whole. It matters to Steve Ott and to Ryan Miller and to each and every one of them, if it didn't, the team would not have posted 111 points, two points off from tying for the #1 spot in the league. And alot of this was done before Ryan Miller, before Steve Ott.

People are using Tarasenko's injury as an excuse. Bullsnot. The team is coasting, pure and simple. They understand these games don't matter, regardless what history says of past winners. These Blues are not going to win by following in the footsteps of history; they are going to make their own steps and trying to follow the footsteps of others have led to collosal disappoints and failures of many stripes, including the hiring of Mike Keenan.

These Blues are not going to follow history. And these aren't the same Blues who everyone is discounting them for. When they get serious, they move with purpose and precision. When a netminder fails, Brian Elliott has been there to pick up the slack. With Ryan Miller, we now have both an extra gear and a calm, focused voice in the lockerroom. If Ken Hitchcock can coach these guys like he did the Stars, and that 111 points did not just magically come out of thin air or arrived unearned, this might be the team the true blue, bleeding blue fans have waited almost half a century for.

Remember, no one believed the Kings would go anywhere in the playoffs and suddenly they made their run.

It's time for these Blues to make their own. History is waiting for them to finish their story with them hoisting of Lord Stanley, so they can begin their next chapter.

And this may be the year to see that.

This was beautiful!