GDT: Blues @ Avs| 9:30pm NBCSN| Sprinting a Marathon

[Brian39]

Overall, I thought our middle 6 was incredible.

Thomas and Kyrou both looked energized and capable of seizing their opportunities.

Binner was solid. He had a couple "big" saves, but was largely just asked to stay in good position, get big before the shot and swallow rebounds. He did all 3.

Oskar Sundqvist. His contract might just be Army's best move in the last couple years. He can play center or wing, he's very sound defensively and he can excel no matter what line you put him on.

Sanford-Bozak-Kyrou look like a pretty damn great 3rd line. I was excited about them in camp but they exceeded my expectations last night. Small sample size, offensive usage and all that, but scoring chances were 5-1 Blues when they were on the ice. Their goal was an absolute beauty, with great plays by all 3 forwards on the ice. Set it and forget it for the month of January. They deomstrated what they can do, now let's find out how often they can do it.

Schenn-ROR-Perron didn't wow me a ton and were on the wrong side of most stats. However, they were mostly going against an elite top line and held that line off the board. Sanford-ROR-Perron were capable of that last year and my hope is that replacing Sanford with Schenn will allow them to be as strong defensively while adding some offensive punch. I didn't see it last night, but I'm not particularly concerned about it. It would be a hell of a nit[ick to complain that our top line "only played the MacKinnon line to a scoreless tie." I'm not trying to complain, just pointing out that this line was the only line we had that didn't exceed my expectations/hopes.

Scandella looked good. He had a couple skates out of our zone and through the neutral zone where he looked more mobile than he did at any point last year. The Scandella-Faulk pairing held their own against a good Colorado offense. They largely limited attempts to low-danger areas and did a good job clogging shooting lanes. I thought they looked like an adequate 2nd pairing.

Krug-Parayko dominated. They were deployed in a ridiculously defensive role and still came out even or positive in every possession metric. 4-2 in our favor in high danger chances with them on the ice and 7-5 in scoring chances overall. We didn't see many flashes of elite offense from Krug, but we saw what he can do getting the puck out of our own zone.

 

[Blueston]

Well Bortuzzo > Faulk

No, but not sure what that has to do with Mackinnon regardless.

 

[Zezel’s Pretzels]

I genuinely think you are just looking for defensive faults if you came away from last night sour on the D performance. Here's the shot heat map at 5 on 5:

At 5 on 5, we allowed 11 total scoring chances, 6 high danger chances and had an expected goals against of 1.17. In all situations, those numbers are 16 scoring chances allowed, 8 high danger chances allowed and an expected goals against of 1.77. Those are remarkably good numbers against a team who was a top 5 offense last year and is expected to do it again this year. To provide some context, the average expected goals against per game in all situations last season was 2.66 and the lowest was 2.27. The average number of scoring chances allowed per game last year was 26.72 and the lowest was 22.99. The average high danger chances allowed per game last season was 10.88 and the lowest was 8.55.

We allowed significantly fewer opportunities than the league's stingiest teams last year and did so against a great offensive team. We practically eliminated half the ice at even strength. Look at the slot and in front of our net. There is one location where the Avs got multiple shot attempts and that area is shaded very lightly. That heat map and the underlying low numbers indicate an incredibly strong defensive game. The forwards played a large part in that, but you can't accomplish those numbers if 3 of your D are shaky. Dunn and Krug each had a couple gaffes, Faulk and Parayko each had 1, and Bortz took a dumb penalty. That's about it and it is exceedingly rare to play a perfect NHL game as a D man. Those gaffes happen in a 60 minute game, especially when you have D who actively push play forward instead of playing more passive. Those handful of gaffes were drastically outweighed by the number of times our D won races, stripped pucks, beat a forecheck, cleared rebounds, clogged passing lanes, skated out of trouble and connected on outlet passes.

Of course the Avs got a few good chances. You are never going to completely eliminate their good scoring chances and you are always going to need your goalie to play well to avoid allowing 3+ goals to the Avs. But let's not pretend like Binner was lights out. We are in great shape if he plays like that consistently this year, but that is also how you expect an average or above average NHL starter to play.

I'm not reading too much into 1 game. This could be our ceiling and other teams catch up to us as the season goes on. This could be a one-off. We could look even better as the season goes on. Trying to extrapolate from 1 game is silly in the NHL, but last night was a great performance. I still have concerns that the D isn't good enough at defending when the other team has the puck in our zone, but last night we demonstrated that we can be extremely successful by limiting the number of times the other team has the puck in our zone.

Great analysis

 

[Brian39]

If I am reading the map right, most of the chances by Colorado that are related to our defense (and even our forwards) largely occurred on the right side. Now, that also is impacted by how Colorado plays and the players on that side of the ice, but it says to me that if anyone had any struggles, the right side was it. That sort of flies in the face of the majority concerns defensively with our left side. Given Parayko and Faulk had the most minutes, I would assume the high danger chances most likely came against one or both of them. Granted, as you noted, all of this is low relatively speaking, which means they still played well.

This is an interesting trend to see. I will have to look at the COL roster to see how much of it was influenced by their personnel.

I wouldn't read that into the image. Berube had Parayko essentially playing man-defense on MacKinnon and shadowing him all over the ice. We had tons of instances where Krug and Parayko switched side. Our defensive structure in general calls for a lot of rotating/switching from the D. The clump of yellow orange above the right circle has nothing to do with the D and the clump of attempts in that right circle above the faceoff dot have little to do with the D.

My eye test from the game tells me that we were actively trying to limit RW Rantanen and MacKinnon when they were on the ice, which forced the puck to our right side. Once it was over there, we largely got Colorado to settle for low-calorie shots from distance.

 

[BlueDream]

I wouldn't read that into the image. Berube had Parayko essentially playing man-defense on MacKinnon and shadowing him all over the ice. We had tons of instances where Krug and Parayko switched side. Our defensive structure in general calls for a lot of rotating/switching from the D. The clump of yellow orange above the right circle has nothing to do with the D and the clump of attempts in that right circle above the faceoff dot have little to do with the D.

My eye test from the game tells me that we were actively trying to limit RW Rantanen and MacKinnon when they were on the ice, which forced the puck to our right side. Once it was over there, we largely got Colorado to settle for low-calorie shots from distance.

Which is impressive that Parayko was glued to MacKinnon because he looked fantastic. He makes it look like the game is easy.

We are fortunate to have him and I hope the defense can keep it up. For a first game against a good team, they did a lot better than I expected.

I’m sure Colorado will play better next game though so we’ll need to stay consistent.

In other news, Blais now has a hearing for his hit so he’s likely the one that comes out for Hoffman. This is my issue with Blais. He has skill and physicality but the dude turns his brain off far too much.

 

[Blueston]

The new comers- Here I was less impressed, although I admit that could be confirmation bias. Krug wasn't bad by any stretch, but he did seem lost a bit at times, but I will readily chalk that up to being on a new team. The worst thing though is how he thinks he is a forward for extended periods at ES. He is not a good ES producer. I'd much rather have Schwartz up front as a forward than having to cover for Krug who is skating around below the goal line for an entire possession. D should pinch when appropriate, but than cycle back and do your job. Schwartz generally puts up more points, and especially at ES. I want Schwartz taking the chances at ES. Too many of our forwards are too good to be relegated to hanging back covering for a guy who just does not produce at ES.

That largely is our system. They want the D to get in deep. It can disrupt defensive coverage and create opportunities. I think for new guys it takes some time to get comfortable as to when and how to do it, but generally that is way Berube wants the D to play.

 

[Majorityof1]

That largely is our system. They want the D to get in deep. It can disrupt defensive coverage and create opportunities. I think for new guys it takes some time to get comfortable as to when and how to do it, but generally that is way Berube wants the D to play.

Yeah, and I have no issue with pinching. I like active D. But the player has to cycle back after the pinch. You can't leave one of our 3-5 best goal scorers 50 feet from the net in coverage for 30+seconds while you skate around behind the net doing nothing. He was up front enough on one shift that the commentator's had time to make multiple comments about Schwartz now being a D-man, and Schwartz had to cover the rush back the other way because he still didn't get back.. You are right though, it might be just adjusting to the system. It is something I saw from him with Boston too. Time will tell how he adjusts and if it ever works out for us.

 

[Got One Cup]

I

Yeah, and I have no issue with pinching. I like active D. But the player has to cycle back after the pinch. You can't leave one of our 3-5 best goal scorers 50 feet from the net in coverage for 30+seconds while you skate around behind the net doing nothing. He was up front enough on one shift that the commentator's had time to make multiple comments about Schwartz now being a D-man, and Schwarctz had to cover the rush back the other way because he still didn't get back.. You are right though, it might be just adjusting to the system. It is something I saw from him with Boston too. Time will tell how he adjusts and if it ever works out for us.

I remember that play. Great defense by Schwartz breaking up a 2-1 with his stick. I don’t mind a smart pinch to keep the play alive but that was not a good pinch situation.

 

[MissouriMook]

Obviously this was just one game, and perhaps more importantly, the first game of the season after limited camp and no pre-season, BUT...

One of the things that I saw last night that causes the Avs to strike very little fear in me is that they seems to lack the ability or motivation to play a team game. We have that in spades.

The three most dangerous elements of the Avs approach are:

1. MacKinnon barreling through the neutral zone and through the defense.
2. Makar skating the puck in circles in the O-Zone looking for a seam to exploit.
3. Rantanen setting up in Ovie's kitchen waiting to unleash a one-timer.

While all of those can be very dangerous and have you chasing the game before you can blink, they are all pretty much reliant on one player doing it all by himself. We, on the other hand, without the game breaking talent but phenomenal depth, have the ability to beat you in so many ways. That's primarily why I think we are being generally underrated as contenders and Colorado is being generally overrated as contenders. We are built for playoff hockey, we just need the consistency to get there. The Avs are not built for playoff hockey, so even if they burn through the regular season schedule, I don't see them making it through four playoff rounds without being exposed by some team that can successfully shut down the two or three elements that they need to have clicking to do damage.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

We are going to see an angry Blais bring the physicality.

You gotz da crystal bawlz, Bruvva!

 

[542365]

I'm not buy-in Dunn and Scandella perform. Dunn particularly looked really bad.

I dont agree our defense looked excellent. I count 3-4 times Avs player 1on1 vs Binny and he pull game savers. Result could be totally different if Binny didnt stand in his head at those moments.

I remember one from Rantanen when MacKinnon gave him a great pass and Rantanen had a partial break and Binnington stopped it. That was the only 1 on 1 look that I remember from the game. 1.2 xG is incredibly low, especially against one of the league’s best offenses. Blues defense wasn’t perfect, but it limited Mack and Makar for the most part, and that’s how you beat the Avs. Blues would’ve won with Husso in net unless Ville really shit the bed.

 

[Ranksu]

I remember one from Rantanen when MacKinnon gave him a great pass and Rantanen had a partial break and Binnington stopped it. That was the only 1 on 1 look that I remember from the game. 1.2 xG is incredibly low, especially against one of the league’s best offenses. Blues defense wasn’t perfect, but it limited Mack and Makar for the most part, and that’s how you beat the Avs. Blues would’ve won with Husso in net unless Ville really shit the bed.

You have link, what is that?

 

[Robb_K]

Not only did I worry about Scandella after The Blues' terrible play during The Bubble, but I worried about the whole Blues team. It seems that, for whatever reason, they simply weren't ready to play when play returned, and just couldn't turn the energy back on. Maybe they were fighting of illness, or they just forgot that you have to play hard to win, because they were Cup Champs, and had recently dominated play during the last 3rd of the regular season, so that result would occur again, just by them stepping out onto the ice.

But last night they were ready, and they executed Berube's plan well, and they shut down The Avs' top line, kept The Avs mostly to the outside, and took advantage on offence when they were given openings. And this was without Hoffman. Krug fit in well already, which is a great sign, given the limited time he's had to practise with his teammates. Scandella looked solid. The "Sundqvist On The Rise" returned. That, and the addition of Hoffman, makes The Blues' forward depth really give The Blues a lot of different line options, and really makes a solid Top 9 - for 3 very solid scoring lines, and a relatively high-scoring 4th Line. They'll still be able to score adequately to compete with the top teams even if a scorer or two get injured or get exposed to a Covid carrier and have to stay out of the lineup for awhile. I'm not thrilled with Bortuzzo playing against fast skating offences. I think he's lost stride ("step") from his speed of 2 years ago. I'm hoping that Mikkola can really improve with more play, and break out into a reliable role as a regular. All in all, I'm confident that the defence will play adequately, and the offence will be better than last season. So, I think The Blues will be in the wider top contending group. However, I don't think they could be considered one of the top 2 or 3 teams in The NHL. It is time for Parayko to take another step forward, and become an all-of-the-time difference maker, instead of a part-time "star". Binnington needs to keep up the level of play he exhibited last night all year, and Husso needs to play well, consistently, to give The Blues the level of backup play they got from Allen (the past 2 seasons), so Binnington won't get overused during the regular season. Kyrou looked good. Thomas looked very good. Both of them need to break out to new levels this season. I was also glad that Steen's retirement (we knew he wouldn't be able to ever play effectively enough ever again) allowed The Blues to keep Bozak. He's still a very valuable cog in The Blues' forward depth they need to keep winning when injuries or Covid protocol take players out of the lineup. And he's a solid veteran, who can save his top effort for the more important games during the run towards the playoffs and the actual playoff games. Faulk looked solid last night. If he and Krug can play like that all season, The Blues' defence will not have lost much from the loss of Pietrangelo. If all those things happen, The Blues will be one of the top contenders. All in all, I'm more optimistic about this season than I was yesterday afternoon.

 

[BlueOil]

Obviously this was just one game, and perhaps more importantly, the first game of the season after limited camp and no pre-season, BUT...

One of the things that I saw last night that causes the Avs to strike very little fear in me is that they seems to lack the ability or motivation to play a team game. We have that in spades.

The three most dangerous elements of the Avs approach are:

1. MacKinnon barreling through the neutral zone and through the defense.
2. Makar skating the puck in circles in the O-Zone looking for a seam to exploit.
3. Rantanen setting up in Ovie's kitchen waiting to unleash a one-timer.

While all of those can be very dangerous and have you chasing the game before you can blink, they are all pretty much reliant on one player doing it all by himself. We, on the other hand, without the game breaking talent but phenomenal depth, have the ability to beat you in so many ways. That's primarily why I think we are being generally underrated as contenders and Colorado is being generally overrated as contenders. We are built for playoff hockey, we just need the consistency to get there. The Avs are not built for playoff hockey, so even if they burn through the regular season schedule, I don't see them making it through four playoff rounds without being exposed by some team that can successfully shut down the two or three elements that they need to have clicking to do damage.

under adversity, the avs appear to quickly retreat into the mackinnon shell, where he does everything, rarely passes, and seems to be attempting to brute force victory in spite of his teammates. honestly, in that shell, they're not far off from being the oilers...very boom/bust way to thrive with one of the, if not the, best player in the game.

 

[Mike Liut]

You definitely have to play physical with the Avs. I think the Blues actually have another level of physicality than they played last night. The Avs do have the speed and skill that can beat you 5-0 on any given night, but i like our chances in a 7 game playoff series. We are too big and strong and play too physical for them in a long series. They just need more grit to win it all. They dont have guys like Sunny, Barbs, Blais on their 3rd and 4th lines like we do.

 

[Falco Lombardi]

 

[Majorityof1]

No wonder we dominated. We had 31 players dressed against their 20.

 

[mike1320]

That largely is our system. They want the D to get in deep. It can disrupt defensive coverage and create opportunities. I think for new guys it takes some time to get comfortable as to when and how to do it, but generally that is way Berube wants the D to play.

 

[stlbluz]

No wonder we dominated. We had 31 players dressed against their 20.

& somehow avoided our usual 'too many men' penalty. What a night

 

[Lezg00]

Was really fun to watch Kyrou and Thomas out there last night. Great energy, playmaking and back checking against a very solid avs team. Hopefully this trend continues from the youngsters.

 

[Meatball]

Faulk was tied with most touches during that sequence (5 with Blais and Scandella) and even had a shot. Really helps highlight what a good game he played (like his outlet pass that lead to the first goal).

Faulk's going to surprise a lot of people. Never understood why everyone was down on him in the first place.

 

[Mike Liut]

Faulk was tied with most touches during that sequence (5 with Blais and Scandella) and even had a shot. Really helps highlight what a good game he played (like his outlet pass that lead to the first goal).

Faulk's going to surprise a lot of people. Never understood why everyone was down on him in the first place.

Yup, agree. Faulk is going to have a good year. I like his style. He has some aggressiveness to him too.

 

[Hrkac Circus]

That seems like an odd combination...

"I'd like to order one Interim Cryogenic Propulsion Stage Booster... and a dozen of the 8 ounce jelly jars."

 

[simon IC]

Several people have commented on the improvement in Kyrou's defensive game, and I agree. It is a huge step forward for him. Here is a question though; is Hoffman going to be asked to do something similar to better fit into Berube's system? More importantly, is he capable of doing so? I am wondering if there are going to be issues between Berube and Hoffman.

 

[mike1320]

Several people have commented on the improvement in Kyrou's defensive game, and I agree. It is a huge step forward for him. Here is a question though; is Hoffman going to be asked to do something similar to better fit into Berube's system? More importantly, is he capable of doing so? I am wondering if there are going to be issues between Berube and Hoffman.

If Hull could learn how to backcheck, anyone can learn how to backcheck.