Blue Jays Discussion: Blue Jays rotation in flux

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Bautista needs a hot September and hopefully a playoff to regain some of that money i think. He is still a dangerous hitter at any moment of the game. People are down on him because his season has been inconsistent but i think he'll come around when it matters most.

I am not a fan of Markakis at all. Average player making above-average money for the next 2 seasons. I'd rather go with Upton - Pillar - Pompey and take our chances that way while improving another part of the roster with that 10ish million.

Sanchez
Stroman
Happ
Estrada
****

That 5th spot could be Liriano. We might look to stretch out Osuna next season and take him out of the closers role. In that case we might want to use that extra cash on a legit closer. Thinking a David Robertson type if possible.

Until Dalton Pompey produces an ISO above 100 in Triple-A, I don't think you'll see him be an everyday major league baseball player.

Also, Upton would be best used in a platoon. You're likely going to have to spend at both corner outfield spots, and while I'm all for cost effective solutions, they'll likely cost a similar amount to Markakis.

 

[Eyedea]

Well his value was never 150 to begin with, so there's that.

Even if he put up 30 HR - .350 OBP - 100 RBI he's getting 4/80. Even 90-100 million would be a stretch. He's 36.

There talking about this on the fan, the host (I think his name is Andrew) mentioned 2/30 as a possibility, No way.

Bautista will still be a 25-30 home run guy in my opinion and he still walks as much as he strikes out.

Both injuries were a result of playing the outfield. Going forward, Bautista is 1B/DH where he will be less injury prone. Bautista takes care of his body, I wouldn't be concerned about him being on the DL anymore then a Zobrist, Martinez or Ortiz.

He will get 3 or 4 years and 50-60. If that's the case, his value never dropped that much realisticly. I'm taking him over the gross overpayment Edwin will receive if it's an option.

Edwin is better, but if your talking about saving 100 million, it's not even an option of who I'd prefer. Always buy low if you can.

Beltre's recent 2/36 extension comes to mind as a comparable.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Desmond turned down a 7/107, then the 15.8 QO, and accepted a 1/8 from the Rangers. Bright side is that he is only 30 though and is on the verge of another 20/20 season.

Somebody is going to pay Ian, and somebody gonna get hurt real bad.

 

[MikeK]

If no one will offer him a 3 year contract then there's literally no reason why he wouldn't prefer to do two 1-yr deals to maximize his earnings

And what if next year is just another example of this year? You really think that's maximizing his earnings? You are making the assumption that this season is a fluke. I am making the assumption that this season is an axample of things to come. The guy is 36 years old in a few months. His best days are behind him. No chance he gets a multi million dollar contract at 37 if he has another year like this season. There is no way he takes a one year deal. My guess is he shelves his ego and tries to get a 2 year deal out of T.O.

 

[Sokil]

And what if next year is just another example of this year? You really think that's maximizing his earnings? You are making the assumption that this season is a fluke. I am making the assumption that this season is an axample of things to come. The guy is 36 years old in a few months. His best days are behind him. No chance he gets a multi million dollar contract at 37 if he has another year like this season. There is no way he takes a one year deal. My guess is he shelves his ego and tries to get a 2 year deal out of T.O.

even if he takes a 1 year QO and then ***** the bed again and gets another 1 year deal at like 9, it's still the same net value

if he doesn't have a bum season next year, he could potentially get more in either a 1 year or maybe 2 year deal on top. The only thing he'd be securing himself from by signing a low value multi year deal now is if he has a career ending injury.

i dont want you as my agent

 

[theaub]

If he craps the bed again next year he's done. No chance he gets anything close to $9M as a multi-year sub-.800 OPS'ing player with no position.

I still think he'll get 3/45-ish elsewhere from some dumb team so there's no chance he takes the QO.

 

[Discoverer]

Until Dalton Pompey produces an ISO above 100 in Triple-A, I don't think you'll see him be an everyday major league baseball player.

Also, Upton would be best used in a platoon. You're likely going to have to spend at both corner outfield spots, and while I'm all for cost effective solutions, they'll likely cost a similar amount to Markakis.

If Pompey's power never develops beyond what it is now, he's probably still a better option than Markakis, who has no power either, but also has no speed of defensive ability. He can get on base, which is obviously awesome, but unless Atlanta is picking up a bunch of his salary and not asking for much in return (like the Upton trade) then it doesn't make sense since he's not really even an improvement over the in-house options.

Last three years:
Markakis - 1.6 WAR/600 - declining each year
Upton - 1.5 WAR/600 - worst season was the least recent
Ezequiel Carrera - 1.6 WAR/600 - not quite a full season's worth of PAs
Dalton Pompey - 1.6 WAR/600 - obviously a very small sample

 

[ShaneFalco]

"What we wanted to work through was what’s going to be the ideal playing scenario for everyone involved, and Darrell Ceciliani has been as hot as anyone and playing really well in triple-A, so he’s going to get an opportunity in the short term," said Atkins. "Junior Lake will get more complementary at-bats and we’ll reassess that on a daily basis. Dalton has a chance to be a star, we want to make sure his transition is a smooth one, and one that has as little volatility as possible."

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/loss-bautista-potential-problematic-blue-jays/

 

[Sokil]

If he craps the bed again next year he's done. No chance he gets anything close to $9M as a multi-year sub-.800 OPS'ing player with no position.

So he can't even make Kendrys Morales money if he does significantly better than him?

Granted Kendrys was 31 at the time and not 36, but he hit .218 with 8HR in his contract year and is making 9m average as a DH

 

[trellaine201]

i cant believe that Lake is the only possible person to call up? He's not very good. Look at his stats, minor and major league. God awful from what I see.

Are we really that weak in OF depth?

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

If Pompey's power never develops beyond what it is now, he's probably still a better option than Markakis, who has no power either, but also has no speed of defensive ability. He can get on base, which is obviously awesome, but unless Atlanta is picking up a bunch of his salary and not asking for much in return (like the Upton trade) then it doesn't make sense since he's not really even an improvement over the in-house options.

Last three years:
Markakis - 1.6 WAR/600 - declining each year
Upton - 1.5 WAR/600 - worst season was the least recent
Ezequiel Carrera - 1.6 WAR/600 - not quite a full season's worth of PAs
Dalton Pompey - 1.6 WAR/600 - obviously a very small sample

The only player of those four that I'd feel confident could produce a 100+ wRC+ in 2017 is Markakis.

Ideally, in the scenario is proposed, he clears recallable waivers, and a trade is worked out similarly to the Upton deal (where the prospect going the other way is one I don't miss, and Atlanta eats some salary).

Also, it should be noted that Nick Markakis has been a fine defender for years, and the metrics have hated him for years. Not saying he's a good defender, but one of those cases where they may need to be taken with a grain of salt.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

i cant believe that Lake is the only possible person to call up? He's not very good. Look at his stats, minor and major league. God awful from what I see.

Are we really that weak in OF depth?

Years of pretty sub-par positional player drafting has left the upper minors devoid of young players who can fill holes to be replacement level or better.

When guys like Dwight Smith see their development stall, and guys like Jacob Anderson do God knows what for five years, you get this kind of void in your system. Can't complain too much though because this scouting department has hit homerun after homerun with their pitching selections.

 

[Paladin2799]

Years of pretty sub-par positional player drafting has left the upper minors devoid of young players who can fill holes to be replacement level or better.

When guys like Dwight Smith see their development stall, and guys like Jacob Anderson do God knows what for five years, you get this kind of void in your system. Can't complain too much though because this scouting department has hit homerun after homerun with their pitching selections.

I would also say that this is exactly why in the hutch trade that we acquired a quality outfield prospect as well that can hit.

 

[Leafin]

It'll get better with the 4 1st round picks we'll likely have in 2017.

 

[Woodman19]

It'll get better with the 4 1st round picks we'll likely have in 2017.

You mean 3.

 

[Kurtz]

And what if next year is just another example of this year? You really think that's maximizing his earnings? You are making the assumption that this season is a fluke. I am making the assumption that this season is an axample of things to come. The guy is 36 years old in a few months. His best days are behind him. No chance he gets a multi million dollar contract at 37 if he has another year like this season. There is no way he takes a one year deal. My guess is he shelves his ego and tries to get a 2 year deal out of T.O.

I tend to agree...while his injuries this year have been flukes, the fact that his arm is completely gone cannot be ignored...and that's the only thing that kept him a semi-viable outfielder. As a pure 1B/DH, his market shrinks immensely.

 

[MikeK]

even if he takes a 1 year QO and then ***** the bed again and gets another 1 year deal at like 9, it's still the same net value

if he doesn't have a bum season next year, he could potentially get more in either a 1 year or maybe 2 year deal on top. The only thing he'd be securing himself from by signing a low value multi year deal now is if he has a career ending injury.

i dont want you as my agent

No offense, but you're living in a fantasy world. In this reality, under no circumstances, does a 36 yr old JB take a one year deal. Regardless. Bank on it.

 

[Discoverer]

The only player of those four that I'd feel confident could produce a 100+ wRC+ in 2017 is Markakis.

Ideally, in the scenario is proposed, he clears recallable waivers, and a trade is worked out similarly to the Upton deal (where the prospect going the other way is one I don't miss, and Atlanta eats some salary).

Also, it should be noted that Nick Markakis has been a fine defender for years, and the metrics have hated him for years. Not saying he's a good defender, but one of those cases where they may need to be taken with a grain of salt.

The metrics hating him for years (and agreeing with each other) should suggest that he's not a very good defender. The sample is enormous at this point. He makes all the routine plays and gets lots of outfield assists, so traditional talent evaluators like his defense and he has a good reputation, but he's slow and has extremely limited range.

And I wouldn't be much more confident in Markakis being a league average hitter than I would be with Upton, given their career arcs to this point.

 

[Discoverer]

i cant believe that Lake is the only possible person to call up? He's not very good. Look at his stats, minor and major league. God awful from what I see.

Are we really that weak in OF depth?

Pillar
Saunders
Bautista
Carrera
Ceciliani
Lake

How many teams can go to their sixth outfielder and find someone BETTER than Lake?

 

[Scrub*]

i cant believe that Lake is the only possible person to call up? He's not very good. Look at his stats, minor and major league. God awful from what I see.

Are we really that weak in OF depth?

Carrera should be ready around Monday.

The thought is made often that a young prospect will be better than a Lake or Cecilliani but sometimes they actually never end up figuring out. The other thing they bring is roster flexibilty, a quick call emergency callup until another player is ready.

Saunders, Pillar, Bautista, Carrera, Upton is quite a bit of depth their are not many teams able to replace 2/3 of their outfield like we have temporarily.

But yeah, 3 of our top 4 outfielders are injured. Not weak in outfield depth compared to other teams, just a little banged up.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Pillar
Saunders
Bautista
Carrera
Ceciliani
Lake

How many teams can go to their sixth outfielder and find someone BETTER than Lake?

7th because Upton

 

[BertCorbeau]

O's up big on the A's this afternoon .. Looks like the divisional lead will get cut down to 0.5 a game.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

O's up big on the A's this afternoon .. Looks like the divisional lead will get cut down to 0.5 a game.

I see the A's started some scrub (Triggs?, never heard of him) vs. Tillman.
Crap.

Of course I might not have alot of ground to stand on considering the lowly A's just took the first 3 games of the series. LOL.

 

[BertCorbeau]

I see the A's started some scrub (Triggs?, never heard of him) vs. Tillman.
Crap.

Of course I might not have alot of ground to stand on considering the lowly A's just took the first 3 games of the series. LOL.

You have none This is as best as we could have hoped for from Oakland. The O's don't have it easy after this either, as they go across the Bay over to San Francisco, then go home to play Boston for two games, before playing Houston, and then have 4 games against the Nationals.

Hopefully they scuffle a bit and the Jays can build a 2-3 game divisional lead.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Interesting projections.

Looks like Estrada and Happ have "outperformed" their projections.

Chavez 2.0 ?

[source]