"Blow the Zone" Horvat Strikes Back

[Bleach Clean]

We know the comparable they were using... why do you think they were using that comparable...

And also you somehow think the team will pay Hronek 8+

Sorry, how do we know what comparable the Horvat camp was using? I can’t recall if it was a radio hit from Horvat’s agent.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

We know the comparable they were using... why do you think they were using that comparable...

That is not how comparables work.

Horvat: No Selke
Couturiere: Yes Selke

Horvat best point totals 61.
Couturiere best point totals 76 points, twice.

And also you somehow think the team will pay Hronek 8+

I think he needs to play like he is worth more than 6mil per to justify the trade.

 

[racerjoe]

Sorry, how do we know what comparable the Horvat camp was using? I can’t recall if it was a radio hit from Horvat’s agent.

I linked one article, but it was said by Dhaliwal and I am sure it was said by others.

That is not how comparables work.

Horvat: No Selke
Couturiere: Yes Selke

Horvat best point totals 61.
Couturiere best point totals 76 points, twice.


I think he needs to play like he is worth more than 6mil per to justify the trade.

Yet Bo now makes more...

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Bo now makes more...

You are confused.

This current contract was signed after his career year not last summer.

 

[Bleach Clean]

I linked one article, but it was said by Dhaliwal and I am sure it was said by others.

Thanks.

So you were fine with referencing a third party source for that information?

I believe the original comparison point was made by Friedman.

 

[racerjoe]

You are confused.

This current contract was signed after his career year not last summer.

and his career year was not as good as Couturiere, and he still got more...

Thanks.

So you were fine with referencing a third party source for that information?

I believe the original comparison point was made by Friedman.

Not sure what you are getting at. I am saying we always need to know where the information is coming from and what we actually know. Those are two different things.

If you want to use 3rd party sources, know where it is coming from, and also realize it opens you up to other 3rd party sources.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

and his career year was not as good as Couturiere, and he still got more...

Now you are just spiraling out of control.

 

[racerjoe]

Now you are just spiraling out of control.

Says the guy who thinks Bo is better then JT...

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Says the guy who thinks Bo is better then JT...

That is not what I have said. Stop it with the strawmen arguments already.

Are you just completely giving up on what we are discussing here?

You've moved the goalposts from: Horvat demanded 7.25 to Horvat signed 8.5 after his career year and now are just attacking my post history. Come on. You can do better.

 

[HockeyWooot]

Horvat fan and I'll give him a year to settle in with NYI before I assess his actual level of play. Aside from this contract year he seems like more of a 25/30g guy in the 60/65 pt range.

That said the team needed a change up and dodged a bullet with that contract. Just awful the moment it was signed.

 

[HockeyWooot]

I don't know why this is controversial. Horvat just played (prior to the trade) the best stretch of hockey in his life. And, at 28 years old, it very likely could remain the best stretch of hockey of his life. This is the definition of selling high. Major kudos to management for recognizing the situation and having the will and foresight to trade an asset at peak value.

And, I'll add, from a position of strength. From a cap balance standpoint, there is no way a team should have three centres at 10% or greater of the cap. The 3C needs to be closer to 5%. And, before the argument comes up that Miller could play wing, that doesn't make a lot of sense when he's making $8M and is a capable centre. To me this is all about balancing the cap across the line-up.

Now the team just needs to readjust the money they're spending on wingers.

This. Pettersson and Miller set at 1 and 2C made Horvat as a pending UFA an expendable and potentially expensive piece to keep. Having the foresight and sense to part with a good player which turned into a #2/3 RD is something Benning era could only have dreamed of.

Hopefully more re-balancing of assets can follow this offseason.

 

[racerjoe]

That is not what I have said. Stop it with the strawmen arguments already.

Are you just completely giving up on what we are discussing here?

You've moved the goalposts from: Horvat demanded 7.25 to Horvat signed 8.5 after his career year and now are just attacking my post history. Come on. You can do better.

You can't deny what you were just saying...

Also you don't have the facts correct in this post of what I have said.

Yes I will attack your history if you try to come at me with spiralling crap because its you who can't defend their position.

Do you think Horvat signs for 6.5? I don't think there is a chance now in hindsight looking at the facts. I really did think the opposite of what happened. I thought Miller would go for Money and Horvat would sign cheap... oops.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

You can't deny what you were just saying...

Also you don't have the facts correct in this post of what I have said.

Yes I will attack your history if you try to come at me with spiralling crap because its you who can't defend their position.

Do you think Horvat signs for 6.5? I don't think there is a chance now in hindsight looking at the facts. I really did think the opposite of what happened. I thought Miller would go for Money and Horvat would sign cheap... oops.

What?

I did think you were spiraling. You just desided to no longer aknowledge your flawes representation of the Couturiere comparison.

Miller isnt getting 8x7 if he became UFA after the year he had. With his character issues. But that is again completely besides the point.

I believe 6.5 - 7 gets Horvat done this summer.

Edit. Miller is currently the better player.

The odds he is the better player when the Canucks compete for the cup IMO ... Id bet on Bo there.

Again no team in our position should have extended neither player to their respective contracts.

Do to now understand where I stand on the Bo vs Miller issue? Its more about timing and age.

 

[MarkusNaslund19]

What?

I did think you were spiraling. You just desided to no longer aknowledge your flawes representation of the Couturiere comparison.

Miller isnt getting 8x7 if he became UFA after the year he had. With his character issues. But that is again completely besides the point.

I believe 6.5 - 7 gets Horvat done this summer.

Edit. Miller is currently the better player.

The odds he is the better player when the Canucks compete for the cup IMO ... Id bet on Bo there.

Again no team in our position should have extended neither player to their respective contracts.

Do to now understand where I stand on the Bo vs Miller issue? Its more about timing and age.

Miller would get more than 7x8 after this season for the record.

Have you seen the other UFA centers out there?

 

[Izzy Goodenough]

"Bo Horvat's Greatest Hits."

The shortest highlight video ever made.

 

[Soups On]

Whoa whoa whoa. Miller would absolutely get $8+ million in the open market. He's still a top line center/winger with a track history of putting up elite numbers in the past few seasons. Several teams that are on the cusp or have GMs potentially on the hot seat would absolutely add him to go on a deep playoff push.

 

[Canucks LB]

What?

I did think you were spiraling. You just desided to no longer aknowledge your flawes representation of the Couturiere comparison.

Miller isnt getting 8x7 if he became UFA after the year he had. With his character issues. But that is again completely besides the point.

I believe 6.5 - 7 gets Horvat done this summer.

Edit. Miller is currently the better player.

The odds he is the better player when the Canucks compete for the cup IMO ... Id bet on Bo there.

Again no team in our position should have extended neither player to their respective contracts.

Do to now understand where I stand on the Bo vs Miller issue? Its more about timing and age.

Lmao
Max domi is the best UFA this year
Jt miller would get 9+ on this market

Don’t confuse not wanting to do a retool, and fitting with your vision of the Canucks with other teams.

 

[racerjoe]

Miller isnt getting 8x7 if he became UFA after the year he had. With his character issues. But that is again completely besides the point.

Normally I wouldn't reply, but since you tried to call me out, when arguments like this get made is when I stop replying.

 

[iceburg]

Legitimate third party sources are not required to know the entire picture. They report what they've learned, and we infer based upon that information. But in your estimation, even a reputable source cannot form the basis for inference. That's a very suspect (and difficult) position to maintain.

Worse yet, your second paragraph has you place your own supposition at the level of these third party sources. Sorry, no.

It's a simple matter to work forward from the information that we do have. If you take what has been publicly reported, this management team failed to sign Horvat twice, and then he priced himself out of the market with this play.

Well, in final analysis, I think you have missed my main point. My argument isn't with your conclusions. It's that you present a fact pattern leading you to these conclusions that you then present as fact and malign management in a significant way as a result. It's the strength of your response base on, by your own admission, inferred information that I have issue with.

And I'm glad you brought up my point in the second paragraph. I was wondering whether you'd respond as you did. With this in mind, I specifically qualified the conclusion as "I'm not saying this is what happen" just that it was more likely. In other words, I was trying to subtly give an example of making an argument while recognizing that, with incomplete information, it might not be the case.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Miller would get more than 7x8 after this season for the record.

Have you seen the other UFA centers out there?

Last summer after his 99p season yes.

This year... being horrific for 50 games... maybe there is a team desperate enough...? What team would that be?

Normally I wouldn't reply, but since you tried to call me out, when arguments like this get made is when I stop replying.

Mission accomplished for you then I guess.

Managed to derail the discussion far enough to not have to acknowledge your faulty logic eariler.

Lmao
Max domi is the best UFA this year
Jt miller would get 9+ on this market

Don’t confuse not wanting to do a retool, and fitting with your vision of the Canucks with other teams.

I dont know what your shot at my retool views has to do with anything here.

I would honestly be VERY squeamish adding JT Miller to my team for 7 years and 8mil. Wouldn't you?


From what team would do well to add him? Is there a team that can fit him under the cap, is trying to win RIGHT NOW and has a strong enough leadership group to reasonably take the risk of his character in the locker room?

 

[MarkMM]

Horvat at $6.5m~ AAV is bad? Or are you referring to the $8m+ AAV?

If they had re-signed Horvat to a decent deal early, they could have used assets to jettison cap and then sign a RHD/take on the inflated salary of another RHD. This scenario gives them both Horvat + RHD, not one or the other.

They still expect to move cap from here on out. This needs to be kept in mind when discussing future cap allocation to positions of need.





Yes and?





It's all based off of legitimate third party reporting. I'm not assuming anything further, and that is the best way to make an argument anywhere, base it off of the evidence.

What people are doing here is looking at the end AAV (only part of the evidence) and saying management made the right call because of Horvat's struggles in NYI. That's actually ignoring the previous evidence and timeline to come to a conclusion. Do you see the logic there?

Horvat at $6.5M AAV is great value, but I'm on the fence whether or not I want him over Miller, and I wouldn't want to spend on both. Toss in the assets that we got in the Horvat trade and I'm okay with moving on, plus as mentioned, I like him but don't want him as captain, and stripping him of the C would be unnecessary drama for a guy who hasn't done anything wrong but IMO just wasn't the leader we need.

 

[iceburg]

Horvat at $6.5M AAV is great value, but I'm on the fence whether or not I want him over Miller, and I wouldn't want to spend on both. Toss in the assets that we got in the Horvat trade and I'm okay with moving on, plus as mentioned, I like him but don't want him as captain, and stripping him of the C would be unnecessary drama for a guy who hasn't done anything wrong but IMO just wasn't the leader we need.

A little over a year ago I would have said keep Horvat over Miller. That's changed, in part because I've accepted that a culture change was absolutely necessary and, in part, because my thoughts on the relative value of the players has shifted. Throw in the contracts that put Miller at a lower cap hit and greater offensive production, I'm now firmly in the trade Horvat, keep Miller camp. Horvat just didn't add enough other factors to make up the difference...and I like Horvat.

 

[Bleach Clean]

Well, in final analysis, I think you have missed my main point. My argument isn't with your conclusions. It's that you present a fact pattern leading you to these conclusions that you then present as fact and malign management in a significant way as a result. It's the strength of your response base on, by your own admission, inferred information that I have issue with.

And I'm glad you brought up my point in the second paragraph. I was wondering whether you'd respond as you did. With this in mind, I specifically qualified the conclusion as "I'm not saying this is what happen" just that it was more likely. In other words, I was trying to subtly give an example of making an argument while recognizing that, with incomplete information, it might not be the case.

I think you have to take an insider rumour for what it is: intel. It may be inaccurate, fine, but these legitimate third party insiders make a living off reputability. They rely on corroborating the evidence given to them before releasing it. You can hear it when Dhaliwal talks about not releasing information before verifying it via other sources. There is a diligence involved.

And so, I feel quite comfortable using intel from these sources to form at least part of the case. I don't need the full picture to do that either. They don't even need the full picture. Therefore, I'm only interested in the fact that you agree with my conclusion. I won't quibble with whether Dhaliwal is to be believed or not. That's an entirely different argument.

Horvat at $6.5M AAV is great value, but I'm on the fence whether or not I want him over Miller, and I wouldn't want to spend on both. Toss in the assets that we got in the Horvat trade and I'm okay with moving on, plus as mentioned, I like him but don't want him as captain, and stripping him of the C would be unnecessary drama for a guy who hasn't done anything wrong but IMO just wasn't the leader we need.

Why wouldn't you spend the money on both if the team could afford it?

What about Miller + Horvat signed, plus assets used to sweeten a contract removal, then pay for a RHD? Is the team stronger or weaker in a net sense then?

 

[iceburg]

I think you have to take an insider rumour for what it is: intel. It may be inaccurate, fine, but these legitimate third party insiders make a living off reputability. They rely on corroborating the evidence given to them before releasing it. You can hear it when Dhaliwal talks about not releasing information before verifying it via other sources. There is a diligence involved.

And so, I feel quite comfortable using intel from these sources to form at least part of the case. I don't need the full picture to do that either. They don't even need the full picture. Therefore, I'm only interested in the fact that you agree with my conclusion. I won't quibble with whether Dhaliwal is to be believed or not. That's an entirely different argument.

Did you miss the point that the same fact pattern supports a keep one trade one strategy? No, I don't agree with your conclusion but way to try to put words in my mouth. I think it's one of a few possibilities and one that is indeed less likely.

 

[Tables of Stats]

Last summer after his 99p season yes.

This year... being horrific for 50 games... maybe there is a team desperate enough...? What team would that be?

If Miller was horrific for 50 games what does that make Kane who the Rangers traded for?