"Blow the Zone" Horvat Strikes Back

[Killer Orcas]

Oh wow. We have very different expectations of how Miller will age out of his contract.

I would never put money on Miller scoring 90+ again.
I expected him to score ~75 this year, he managed 82p again but it wasn't pretty. His 5on5 production cratered from last year as I predicted it would.

My prediction is ~75 points for him next year. And again a negative 5on5 profile if they deploy him as a center.

Whether you think ones a 90 point player and one isn't doesn't matter. I agree Miller will probably never hit 90 again however Miller I can see him being a consistent 70 plus point guy for the next 4-5 years of his remaining 7 year deal. Horvat not a chance hits 70 I mean his career high is 61 anyway and since trade what did he do? 16 points in 30 games. Horvat makes 8.5 for the next 8.

Not sure how much Horvat's intangibles are worth but his deal is gonna be ugly compared to Miller's moving forward. Hence why I agree with @tantalum that Miller has a much better chance to live up to his deal compared with Horvat.

 

[tantalum]

Oh wow. We have very different expectations of how Miller will age out of his contract.

I would never put money on Miller scoring 90+ again.
I expected him to score ~75 this year, he managed 82p again but it wasn't pretty. His 5on5 production cratered from last year as I predicted it would.

My prediction is ~75 points for him next year. And again a negative 5on5 profile if they deploy him as a center.

I didn’t say it would age well. Note that I’ve never said the contract is worth it. I said of the two players the one that has the better potential to meet the expectations of the salary is Miller. Miller has the higher “upside”. That’s it. One player has been a bit better than point per game the last 300 games they’ve played the other is a 60 point type guy.

 

[rypper]

In all the fun everyone is having dragging Horvat (and after that playoff series, he's opened himself up to it) but lets not pretend that if he wasnt' traded his production would have cratered the same that it did on the Islanders.

If he finished out the season in Vancouver, he tops at least 40 goals, 70 points, and that's a low end prediction.

 

[nucksflailtogether]

In all the fun everyone is having dragging Horvat (and after that playoff series, he's opened himself up to it) but lets not pretend that if he wasnt' traded his production would have cratered the same that it did on the Islanders.

If he finished out the season in Vancouver, he tops at least 40 goals, 70 points, and that's a low end prediction.

And the team plays no better. I have come around to the fact he wasn’t a good leader for this team with his lack of attention to detail. He’s a one dimensional scorer, I guess 2 D with his face offs.

Hopefully Hughes and pettersson can be more effective leaders.

 

[rypper]

And the team plays no better. I have come around to the fact he wasn’t a good leader for this team with his lack of attention to detail. He’s a one dimensional scorer, I guess 2 D with his face offs.

Hopefully Hughes and pettersson can be more effective leaders.

I don't think we can really tell how good of a leader he was or not, we're not in the room, not privy to what's said on the bench/ice, etc. Unless you have imaginary friends in the room like some posters here claim, nobody really knows.

That being said, I've been a big proponent for turning the team over to Pettersson and Hughes for a while and if trading Horvat is what allows that then I'm happy. I always assumed a Miller trade would have to happen too but maybe not?

 

[tantalum]

In all the fun everyone is having dragging Horvat (and after that playoff series, he's opened himself up to it) but lets not pretend that if he wasnt' traded his production would have cratered the same that it did on the Islanders.

If he finished out the season in Vancouver, he tops at least 40 goals, 70 points, and that's a low end prediction.

Why wouldn’t it crater in Vancouver? He was sitting about 7% higher in shooting percentage compared to the bulk of his career (note is sh% as a whole is good). The slump brought him back in line with expected. Could have happened anywhere.

 

[rypper]

Why wouldn’t it crater in Vancouver? He was sitting about 7% higher in shooting percentage compared to the bulk of his career (note is sh% as a whole is good). The slump brought him back in line with expected. Could have happened anywhere.

The linemates and opportunities he had in Vancouver would have kept him going. Canucks had a top 10 powerplay that Horvat was a trigger man for, the Islanders were bottom of the league.

 

[nucksflailtogether]

I don't think we can really tell how good of a leader he was or not, we're not in the room, not privy to what's said on the bench/ice, etc. Unless you have imaginary friends in the room like some posters here claim, nobody really knows.

That being said, I've been a big proponent for turning the team over to Pettersson and Hughes for a while and if trading Horvat is what allows that then I'm happy. I always assumed a Miller trade would have to happen too but maybe not?

I don’t mean rah rah leader though. I mean I guy who leads by example and sets the tone.
Yes he scored goals but his defensive awareness and pk skills had more than enough time to turn around and he never pout in the work.

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

The linemates and opportunities he had in Vancouver would have kept him going. Canucks had a top 10 powerplay that Horvat was a trigger man for, the Islanders were bottom of the league.

It’s hard to judge as you have a point, and Vancouver was his home for almost 10 years and he had some chemistry with our team. But it’s hard to overlook his huge drop off in production after signing that huge extension. I think we need to wait to see how he performs after a full season with NYI while he adjusts to a new team, coaching structure, city, etc. before passing judgment.

 

[EverTheCynic]

I don’t mean rah rah leader though. I mean I guy who leads by example and sets the tone.
Yes he scored goals but his defensive awareness and pk skills had more than enough time to turn around and he never pout in the work.

Bo Horvat outright ignored his coaches and refused to perform the most basic defensive responsibilities of his position. Particularly during slumps, he would cause so many goals against cheating up ice to get a quick rush up and prime scoring chance.

He heard his coaches, he just didn't listen to any of them. We don't need any evidence beyond what we saw on the ice to determine the guy is the worst captain this franchise ever had.

He's been a liability and a net negative player his entire career (barring this season, where he was pretty good). So happy he's finally off the team.

Can't believe we got the package for him we did. Isles fans hate him already. Lol.

 

[JimmyJiveJones]

Do players who get traded at the deadline ever produce at the same rate when they were on their previous teams? Its rare. There was no way Horvat was gonna replicate his career year in Van right off the bat in New York. Everytime he scored was just another nail in the coffin for him to re-sign here. As for people saying Miller is a better player than Horvat, hes definately a better point producer but player..... id say its debatable.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

The linemates and opportunities he had in Vancouver would have kept him going. Canucks had a top 10 powerplay that Horvat was a trigger man for, the Islanders were bottom of the league.

Also.

Canucks net powerplay was like 17th after he left.

 

[Luck 6]

Do players who get traded at the deadline ever produce at the same rate when they were on their previous teams? Its rare. There was no way Horvat was gonna replicate his career year in Van right off the bat in New York. Everytime he scored was just another nail in the coffin for him to re-sign here. As for people saying Miller is a better player than Horvat, hes definately a better point producer but player..... id say its debatable.

I really don’t think it’s debatable at all. Horvat is a bit better on the draw, but that’s it… I can’t really see any other category where Horvat is better than Miller, and that becomes very clear when you look at the numbers.

 

[geebster]

He played badly, even by his normal 50-60pt standards. He showed up for us in the clutch and in playoff games and just didn't for the Islanders. He's playing with worse offensive players than we have now, but he played with worse here for years and showed up when it mattered regardless.

He sucked and makes the 8.5 mil look like such a disaster. He will improve but glad we dodged that.

 

[joelCAMEL]

Bo Horvat ... We don't need any evidence beyond what we saw on the ice to determine the guy is the worst captain this franchise ever had ...

Mark Messier gets my vote for worst team captain, not Bo Horvat. I'll tell you that for free.
Mark may have been before your time.

 

[VanJack]

Bo had seven goals in his last 28 games for Islanders and scored one goal in the playoffs, and that was in garbage time in a lopsided loss to Carolina.

Did the Canucks either by accident or design, actually fleece the cagey Lou Lamoriello in a trade? Beginning to look like it. For $8.5m a season, this contract might not age well.

I'm not getting all the 'Bo-bashing' in Vancouver though. He was an honest hockey player for the Canucks and was a worthy successor to Henrik as team captain. But on the ice, he is what he is--a 50-60 point center who's above average in the face-off dot and average to slightly below average defensively.

At long last, it looks like the Canucks finally dealt a player 'at the top of the market'.

 

[MarkMM]

Bo had seven goals in his last 28 games for Islanders and scored one goal in the playoffs, and that was in garbage time in a lopsided loss to Carolina.

Did the Canucks either by accident or design, actually fleece the cagey Lou Lamoriello in a trade? Beginning to look like it. For $8.5m a season, this contract might not age well.

I'm not getting all the 'Bo-bashing' in Vancouver though. He was an honest hockey player for the Canucks and was a worthy successor to Henrik as team captain. But on the ice, he is what he is--a 50-60 point center who's above average in the face-off dot and average to slightly below average defensively.

At long last, it looks like the Canucks finally dealt a player 'at the top of the market'.

A side benefit to me is that while I don't think he was a horriically bad captain he wasn't the captain we needed, but because he wasn't so obviously egregiously bad we were kind of stuck with him as our leader as there wasn't a justification to strip hin of the "C". Trading him off at the top of the market, dodging his cap hit and giving a fresh slate to re-set the leadership right when Tocchet is trying to establish a new way of doing things is a real benefit to me.

 

[StickShift]

Bo had seven goals in his last 28 games for Islanders and scored one goal in the playoffs, and that was in garbage time in a lopsided loss to Carolina.

Did the Canucks either by accident or design, actually fleece the cagey Lou Lamoriello in a trade? Beginning to look like it. For $8.5m a season, this contract might not age well.

I'm not getting all the 'Bo-bashing' in Vancouver though. He was an honest hockey player for the Canucks and was a worthy successor to Henrik as team captain. But on the ice, he is what he is--a 50-60 point center who's above average in the face-off dot and average to slightly below average defensively.

At long last, it looks like the Canucks finally dealt a player 'at the top of the market'.

I think the primary thing to focus on in the Bo Horvat transaction is not the return. It’s that ownership made the correct calculation that he was not worth the contract that the market was willing to pay him.

It’s remarkably rare when NHL clubs show that sort of restraint and avoidance. It is a competitive advantage if management can continue to avoid those trap contracts. Typically every team has 1-3 of them. Horvat is now one less on Vancouver’s book.

 

[iceburg]

I think the primary thing to focus on in the Bo Horvat transaction is not the return. It’s that ownership made the correct calculation that he was not worth the contract that the market was willing to pay him.

It’s remarkably rare when NHL clubs show that sort of restraint and avoidance. It is a competitive advantage if management can continue to avoid those trap contracts. Typically every team has 1-3 of them. Horvat is now one less on Vancouver’s book.

This exactly. Of all the transactions it’s the one they didn’t do, sign Horvat to 8x$8.5M, that gives me the most confidence in the group.

 

[Bleach Clean]

This exactly. Of all the transactions it’s the one they didn’t do, sign Horvat to 8x$8.5M, that gives me the most confidence in the group.

But that wasn't the numbers involved in the initial speculation. It's only when he was well into a 60 goal/82 game campaign that the number rose to 8m+.

It was management's incompetence (then and now) that had the number get that high in the first place. That should have never happened.

 

[iceburg]

But that wasn't the numbers involved in the initial speculation. It's only when he was well into a 60 goal/82 game campaign that the number rose to 8m+.

It was management's incompetence (then and now) that had the number get that high in the first place. That should have never happened.

I don’t understand. Are you saying Horvat shouldn’t have done well?
The decision was made to signMiller and then Horvat, if they could. When he went on a hot streak he out priced himself and the correct decision was made.

 

[Tables of Stats]

Bo had seven goals in his last 28 games for Islanders and scored one goal in the playoffs, and that was in garbage time in a lopsided loss to Carolina.

Did the Canucks either by accident or design, actually fleece the cagey Lou Lamoriello in a trade? Beginning to look like it. For $8.5m a season, this contract might not age well.

I'm not getting all the 'Bo-bashing' in Vancouver though. He was an honest hockey player for the Canucks and was a worthy successor to Henrik as team captain. But on the ice, he is what he is--a 50-60 point center who's above average in the face-off dot and average to slightly below average defensively.

At long last, it looks like the Canucks finally dealt a player 'at the top of the market'.

Bo was on the ice for those periods where the team went 10+ minutes without a shot on goal. It's tough to say that he did much leading in those tough times as we certainly never saw it on the ice.

 

[racerjoe]

But that wasn't the numbers involved in the initial speculation. It's only when he was well into a 60 goal/82 game campaign that the number rose to 8m+.

It was management's incompetence (then and now) that had the number get that high in the first place. That should have never happened.

I don't honestly get your post...

The team didn't over pay him... offered below market value (normal for negotiations unless your name is Jim Benning)

Then when Horavt demanded way above market value off an unsustainable hot streak they traded him

Somehow this is looked at as bad?

 

[Bleach Clean]

I don’t understand. Are you saying Horvat shouldn’t have done well?
The decision was made to signMiller and then Horvat, if they could. When he went on a hot streak he out priced himself and the correct decision was made.

I’m saying this management team actually should have signed him to a much more manageable figure, earlier. They initially tried to with the RNH comparison. That wasn’t going to work, but a deal in the mid $6m range would have made sense for both sides.

It’s because this management team decided to low ball and slow play him, and risk his performance in season that his price became too rich. Had they not done so, he would still be a Canuck.

Miller/Horvat was not mutually exclusive either. Horvat’s money is just going to go to Hronek instead. Meaning, the budget to sign both was there. They just screwed it up and moved laterally as a consolation.

 

[iceburg]

I’m saying this management team actually should have signed him to a much more manageable figure, earlier. They initially tried to with the RNH comparison. That wasn’t going to work, but a deal in the mid $6m range would have made sense for both sides.

It’s because this management team decided to low ball and slow play him, and risk his performance in season that his price became too rich. Had they not done so, he would still be a Canuck.

Miller/Horvat was not mutually exclusive either. Horvat’s money is just going to go to Hronek instead. Meaning, the budget to sign both was there. They just screwed it up and moved laterally as a consolation.

Or…the better strategy to balance the cap was to keep one and spend the money for the other on a top 4 RHD. It’s the strategy I would have done. of course only because they have another elite centre in the mix.