Value of: Blake Wheeler's Next Contract

[Blackmon]

Anything more than 6.5M AAV would be too much, IMO. He’s a great player, but he’s leaving his prime, and the last couple of his next contract could leave the Jets with an albatross of a contract if he’s in his decline.

I’d give him a nice signing bonus in the first few years and a low overall salary, similar to the Tavares contract, but obviously not as big.

 

[Sparky93]

This is the problem for sure. How do you let the captain (and probably your best overall player) of your team walk away.

In hindsight of course, the Jets should have given him an 8 year contract @ $5.8 million last time instead of 5 years.

Arguably the best RW in the game right now but man 32!

 

[Benji Frank]

Definitely hope not but very possible. All depends how much value he places on being here. Buff could have gone the way of Stastny a year and a half ago but he didnt. Can't tell until the deal is signed.

Buff may have left a bit of term on the table, but they paid for it. If memory serves correct, his AAV was in the top 3 or so among dmen in the NHL after signing. I actually thought of Buff's contract when trying to come up with a number for Wheeler. With them handing out AAV approaching and passing $10M AAV like it's candy now, I just don't see Wheeler going below $10M next summer unless we give him term.

I certainly hope I'm wrong!!!!

 

[Taylorst]

Blake Wheeler hast steadily grown into one of the best playmaking wingers in the NHL today. He is coming off a 91 point season, captaining the Jets to their best record ever. He is very good 5 v 5, and exceptional as a playmaker on the PP. He is big, skilled, and very fast. Over the last 5 years, he has missed almost no time with injuries.

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM	+/-
2013-14	Jets	NHL	82	28	41	69	63	4
2014-15	Jets	NHL	79	26	35	61	73	26
2015-16	Jets	NHL	82	26	52	78	49	8
2016-17	Jets	NHL	82	26	48	74	47	6
2017-18	Jets	NHL	81	23	68	91	52	13

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

He will be 32 years old in August. He's coming into the last year of a 5 year contract with a annual salary of $5.8 million.

What do you think the term and AAV of his next contract will be?

I think when he signs his next deal it will be 3 years 6.5 to 7 million based on his age he will be 33 and that will be the factor to the length of a contract

 

[Rabid Ranger]

The best the Jets can hope for is higher dollars, fewer years. Five years at $8 mil per. These posts about him coming in at $6.5 per is pure fantasy.

 

[KingsFan7824]

It'll be one of the tougher contracts to swallow in the last few years. It'll be the ultimate hard cap contract question. Especially if the Jets don't win this year. Do you sign a 33 year old when the new contract kicks in for multiple years at some sort of substantial raise, if he hasn't helped you win the prize? If the Jets do win this year, they'll pay him his massive thank you for the Cup contract, and whatever happens after that happens.

If the Jets don't win this year, he might take a little less to stay. He's not Stastny. He's been in Winnipeg for a long time now.

One year before Laine has to be signed. You want to take advantage of that ELC.

 

[McDLT]

I would bet on Wheeler still being a good top-6 forward in his late 30's. I would give him max term if it meant shaving 1-2 mil off of the AAV. 7 years x $6.5M would be ideal. If he wants $8M, then I would only offer 4 years.

 

[Flair Hay]

When is the next lockout, err CBA due to be signed?

Might be in the Jets best interest to give him a front loaded deal for the first 4 years. But with potential to amnesty out of the back end when not much money is left but the cap hit is still high.

 

[MasterMatt25]

5yrs 40mill (8mill aav) is my guess

 

[member 157595]

Do you give Laine or Wheeler more per year I wonder? These young superstars have got quite a bit of money lately in different teams and who knows how good Laine will get. Wheeler is probably more valuable for the Jets right now, but this is probably the best Wheeler will ever be as a player aka I think he has reached his ceiling, so it should be pretty close.

It's tough, obviously no one would take Wheeler going forward over Laine due to the age difference but Wheeler is the better player right now by far.

Jets are ludicrously talented on the wing.

 

[JetsHomer]

8m x 7yr...he's not taking less term

No team in the league is paying Wheeler 8m for his age 38,39 and 40 year old seasons

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

short term high cap hit, if he has another monster season hard not to pay him 8-9 mil at 4-6 years.

 

[Uncle Scrooge]

This one makes me scared.

I love Wheeler, he's a great captain and obviously has had his best years recently. Losing him probably isn't an option and the organization will feel obligated to pay him what he's worth.

But i have this gut feeling he might regress considerably in a couple years.. he's worked so hard for this team on and off the ice and putting up career numbers + getting a big contract + getting past his mid 30's (he'll be 33 at the start of 19-20 season) is a combination that makes me worried about how he'd live up to it.

Wheeler's game is all about effort. He's not a guy who puts up points on the board unless he's fully engaged.. Everything he does is through sheer determination and using his physical tools as an advantage. So once he loses a step in that regard and/or gets too comfortable he's going to trend down.

Basically i hope he doesn't get more than 5 years.

But who knows, he might not even want to stay. There will be great teams offering him contracts if he gets to FA.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

The Belichick move would be to trade him right now (after a 91 point season) and make it somebody else's problem.

Tough trigger to pull though.

 

[Royale With Cheese]

The Belichick move would be to trade him right now (after a 91 point season) and make it somebody else's problem.

Tough trigger to pull though.

Problem is, you wouldn’t get an equivalent asset back.

Jets have some good young wingers but it’s unknown if one of them could get to that complete of a package.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Problem is, you wouldn’t get an equivalent asset back.

Jets have some good young wingers but it’s unknown if one of them could get to that complete of a package.

You're right. It would definitely be a "3 quarters and a nickel for a dollar" type of deal. But maybe those quarters would be in the 20-27 year old range (where the rest of the Jets' core is) and doesn't require a risky financial commitment. Not a fun decision to have to make.

 

[StatisticsAddict99]

8m but if any player is gonna take a hometown discount it’s this guy, he’s always been a team first guy though he deserves 8m for decent term.

 

[robertocarlos]

So I read all the comments and I will be Chevy and split it all down the middle. 6 years, 51 millions.

Even though I know Chevy comes up with a reasonable term and number and then adds 10% more max.
Which would be 5 years at $7.75

 

[lablite47]

This is the problem for sure. How do you let the captain (and probably your best overall player) of your team walk away.

In hindsight of course, the Jets should have given him an 8 year contract @ $5.8 million last time instead of 5 years.

NYI just did. Anything is possible under this cap era.

 

[Kial Bonetti]

Given wheelers age and his point totals up to this point, it would be safe to assume he will drop back down to around PPG. Maybe he does stay in the 90 pt area, maybe not. Given how GM’s are forced to give term to these players in order to keep them, I say trading him is the best situation while he has his best value. I think NHL teams should operate like MLB teams when it comes to trading. If there wasn’t this sense of loyalty in the NHL teams can skip the rebuilt phase or at least make it re-tool rather than rebuild. Trade the players for younger pieces/picks and keep the cycle going. Just how my Sharks should have traded Thornton, Marleau and Pavelski several years ago. They might have missed playoffs for one year, maybe two but they would have been set for years to come with the pieces and picks thy got back (assuming they drafted correctly).

 

[Mestaruus]

8m but if any player is gonna take a hometown discount it’s this guy, he’s always been a team first guy though he deserves 8m for decent term.

7.0-7.2 mil x 5 for hometown discount sounds reasonable?

As the previous poster said I'd consider the trade option as well while his value is high.

 

[migi]

8x7,5m.

 

[Whileee]

probably something around Benn's contract I'd assume

Don't think so...

Benn was 28 when his contract began. Wheeler will be 32. Those 4 years make a big difference in value at that age.

 

[Whileee]

The best the Jets can hope for is higher dollars, fewer years. Five years at $8 mil per. These posts about him coming in at $6.5 per is pure fantasy.

It's likely Wheeler's last real contract.

7x6.5M = $45.5M
5x8M = $40M

I think the Jets would prefer the 7x6.5M contract, and it would give Wheeler a guaranteed extra $5.5M. I don't think it's that far-fetched. It will be all about term.

I could see the Jets giving him a 7 or even 8 year term. That would take him to 39 or 40. He seems like a player that will age like Marleau - very durable, fit and with great wheels.

Given the Jets current roster age and composition, I think the Jets will give term over AAV.

 

[chethejet]

Winning has it's cost. Players who are the stars will be paid. Chemistry and leadership are important to keep it going. Problem is not being a big market revenue franchise, decisions are harder to make.