Value of: Blake Wheeler

[Dipsy Doodle]

It's not a reason to justify it, it's why it could be a bit more palpable because the Jets have a 8-9M dollar player making 6.125M.

I don't think the math makes sense even with Scheif's bargain. They still have to fill out a team once these contracts are signed. But as I said, the calculus might be changed if Wheeler became a full-time center.

 

[DANTHEMAN1967]

Jegs are Cup contenders.

Trading their best player is not in the realm of reality.

I agree he will be the Jets "own rental" this year, similar to how JVR was with the Leafs this past year, and they won't get anything for him.

 

[DRW204]

I don't think the math makes sense even with Scheif's bargain. They still have to fill out a team once these contracts are signed. But as I said, the calculus might be changed if Wheeler became a full-time center.

w/ Scheifele's bargain they're at 40.5M for their top 6 of 2 x Cs and 4 x Ws if you assume the wingers cost 29M. Using your Leafs example their top 6 of Marleau (6.25M) + JT (11M) + Hyman (2.25M) = 19.5M. I think it is a fair assumption that AM+MM+WN will exceed 21M.

Obviously Wing is one of the least valuable positions in hockey, however, I do think the Jets set of wingerss are one of, if not, the best in the league. Wheeler is a top 10 W and Laine is knocking on the door of that too. It is not optimal, but you have to pay for elite players at the position

 

[DANTHEMAN1967]

Bolded seems like completely baseless speculation.

It's not baseless it is based in reality.
Connor, Laine, Trouba are all under 24 and all need to be PAID next year, Wheeler will be 32 next week so it's fairly obvious that Wheeler should/will be the odd man out and will likely walk for free at the end of the season.

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

It's not baseless it is based in reality.
Connor, Laine, Trouba are all under 24 and all need to be PAID next year, Wheeler will be 32 next week so it's fairly obvious that Wheeler should/will be the odd man out and will likely walk for free at the end of the season.

Fairly good chance Trouba will be gone for next season.

I understand the predicament that the Jets are in, probably better than you. Yes it is a very realistic possibility that he would leave, but to say he's "probably going to walk" is baseless and speculation. Wheeler is the captain and a top 5 winger in the league, it is not as simple as just letting him walk out the door and saying see ya later pal. The Jets will likely try to sign him, it will depend on what kind of deal he wants.

 

[Trinity]

As a Jets fan, the most I'd give him is 3-4 years max at an AAV of 7.5m per season. He'll be 33 when his next contract starts and I wont nothing beyond 4 years. Three years preferably. If that means he walks, then I'm fine with that.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

w/ Scheifele's bargain they're at 40.5M for their top 6 of 2 x Cs and 4 x Ws if you assume the wingers cost 29M. Using your Leafs example their top 6 of Marleau (6.25M) + JT (11M) + Hyman (2.25M) = 19.5M. I think it is a fair assumption that AM+MM+WN will exceed 21M.

Obviously Wing is one of the least valuable positions in hockey, however, I do think the Jets set of wingerss are one of, if not, the best in the league. Wheeler is a top 10 W and Laine is knocking on the door of that too. It is not optimal, but you have to pay for elite players at the position

The key is that you're including 2 superstar centers in Toronto's math, and Bryan Little is not that. He's so not that, that the Jets went out of their way to acquire Stastny last year to play that role.

The whole crux of the argument is that wing is the least important position in hockey, and so allocating so much money to that position hurts the Jets in other ways, one of which would be to compromise at the 2C position. You have to pay for elite players at the position if you want them, but the question is whether they should shell out for a 32 year old Wheeler who'll make bank considering their strength at wing with or without him and the concessions they'd have to make elsewhere.

 

[DRW204]

The key is that you're including 2 superstar centers in Toronto's math, and Bryan Little is not that. He's so not that, that the Jets went out of their way to acquire Stastny last year to play that role.

The whole crux of the argument is that wing is the least important position in hockey, and so allocating so much money to that position hurts the Jets in other ways, one of which would be to compromise at the 2C position. You have to pay for elite players at the position if you want them, but the question is whether they should shell out for a 32 year old Wheeler who'll make bank considering their strength at wing with or without him and the concessions they'd have to make elsewhere.

The Jets were a top 5 team this past year w/o Stastny pacing for 110 pts ranked 4th in GF and 4th in least GA with Bryan Little having his worst year since his ATL days. Lots of people, myself included, expect a bounce back year from him to similar production to what he/Stastny has typically put up in recent years (50-55 pts). The Jets also have Roslovic who IMO will follow a similar C development path to a guy like Larkin and eventually be the 2C of the team. The Jets can acquire an upgrade on Bryan Little and still likely be less or equal to what TOR's top 6 would be, so yes it can be done (Little obvs would have to be moved).

The whole point is, having Scheifele having on that contract IS the concession that allows the Jets to have elite strength on the Wing and make it more palpable from a cap POV. Like i mentioned before, it might not be optimal, but it is something that could be worked around. Guys like Perreault, Kulikov, Myers, etc would be the one who'd be moved to make further concessions if necessary. There will be adequate replacements for those guys through the pipeline when the time comes.

I don't know about you, but would you want to retain your top line captain who is an elite, PPG, top 5-10W in the game that leads by example and is pure class personified? I trust Chevy in signing him to a fair reasonable deal. Now if he wants something with crazy term (6, 7, 8 years) then I agree it might be time to move on.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

The Jets were a top 5 team this past year w/o Stastny pacing for 110 pts ranked 4th in GF and 4th in least GA with Bryan Little having his worst year since his ATL days. Lots of people, myself included, expect a bounce back year from him to similar production to what he/Stastny has typically put up in recent years (50-55 pts). The Jets also have Roslovic who IMO will follow a similar C development path to a guy like Larkin and eventually be the 2C of the team. The Jets can acquire an upgrade on Bryan Little and still likely be less or equal to what TOR's top 6 would be, so yes it can be done (Little obvs would have to be moved).

Oh they can? What exactly do you think an upgrade on Little's gonna cost in terms of cap? If Roslovic is that player, what's he gonna make on his next deal?

This is the problem.

The whole point is, having Scheifele having on that contract IS the concession that allows the Jets to have elite strength on the Wing and make it more palpable from a cap POV. Like i mentioned before, it might not be optimal, but it is something that could be worked around. Guys like Perreault, Kulikov, Myers, etc would be the one who'd be moved to make further concessions if necessary. There will be adequate replacements for those guys through the pipeline when the time comes.

My calculations already involve moving these players. They're going to have to be replaced with players making good money too, particularly Myers.

I don't know about you, but would you want to retain your top line captain who is an elite, PPG, top 5-10W in the game that leads by example and is pure class personified? I trust Chevy in signing him to a fair reasonable deal. Now if he wants something with crazy term (6, 7, 8 years) then I agree it might be time to move on.

6 years is in no way a crazy term for Wheeler - I'll be surprised if it's less than that. If you're Wheeler, - a great winger for all the reasons you listed - why would you take less?

 

[10Ducky10]

The Jets probably give him Wheeler 5 years at 7.6m.
8 8 8 8 and 6.
Just like Buff's.
8m USD is roughly 10m CAD. A 2m house around Winnipeg would cost you 8m in Vancouver.. maybe more.

 

[DRW204]

Oh they can? What exactly do you think an upgrade on Little's gonna cost in terms of cap? If Roslovic is that player, what's he gonna make on his next deal?
This is the problem.
My calculations already involve moving these players. They're going to have to be replaced with players making good money too, particularly Myers.
6 years is in no way a crazy term for Wheeler - I'll be surprised if it's less than that. If you're Wheeler, - a great winger for all the reasons you listed - why would you take less?

Oh they can? What exactly do you think an upgrade on Little's gonna cost in terms of cap? If Roslovic is that player, what's he gonna make on his next deal?
This is the problem.

A lot of this work has been discussed and done on the Jets board, if you are interested in full 2019-2020 mocks you can look there but for this sake, let’s assume
- The Jets wingers of Connor, Laine, Wheeler and Ehlers equate to 29M
- The Jets C’s equate to 11.4M
- Jets overall top 6 spend is 40.4M

- Leafs current deals on JT+PM+ZH = 19.5M
- AM+MM+WN = my projection on long term deals (no bridges) 23M low, 26.5M High, so 25M in the middle…so 44.5M for their top6.

So the Jets are dishing out 4M less for their top 6 compared to the Leafs. I think my estimates of 11M for AM, 7.5M for MM and 6.5 for WN are fair.

Roslovic has like 40 games of NHL experience, who knows how much his deal will cost? It is WAY to early to project anything as far as what he makes post ELC. He could be bridged too.

My calculations already involve moving these players. They're going to have to be replaced with players making good money too, particularly Myers.
6 years is in no way a crazy term for Wheeler - I'll be surprised if it's less than that. If you're Wheeler, - a great winger for all the reasons you listed - why would you take less?[/

The only way I offer Wheeler 6 years is if it’s a descending salary making his cap hit less as the years increased. Just because he takes a 4-5 year deal now, doesn’t mean he could get a 1-3 year deal after that one btw. Look at the deals Joe Thornton has been signing in SJ, for instance.

All those players could be replaced by ELC players by the time 2019 commences. Vesalainen for Perreault, Niku for Kulikov and Poolman for Myers. Myers is a 3rd pair dman w/ a 5.5M Cap hit, that is one of the least optimal disbursements of salary on the roster atm. However, it is a luxury the could afford over the past few years but not after this year.

 

[Eyeseeing]

I'd re-sign him, he can teach the young jets and specifically Laine some humility and maturity. Laine would also benefit from lesser competition (while playing on the 2nd line) as he watches the Captain on the 1st line.

Humility?
Really?
Laine isn’t an egomaniac.
Odd comment...

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

A lot of this work has been discussed and done on the Jets board, if you are interested in full 2019-2020 mocks you can look there but for this sake, let’s assume
- The Jets wingers of Connor, Laine, Wheeler and Ehlers equate to 29M
- The Jets C’s equate to 11.4M
- Jets overall top 6 spend is 40.4M

- Leafs current deals on JT+PM+ZH = 19.5M
- AM+MM+WN = my projection on long term deals (no bridges) 23M low, 26.5M High, so 25M in the middle…so 44.5M for their top6.

So the Jets are dishing out 4M less for their top 6 compared to the Leafs. I think my estimates of 11M for AM, 7.5M for MM and 6.5 for WN are fair.

Roslovic has like 40 games of NHL experience, who knows how much his deal will cost? It is WAY to early to project anything as far as what he makes post ELC. He could be bridged too.

The assumption is that you're getting an upgrade on Little at 2C for the same price. This is my whole issue, so I won't assume it. I don't see a winning formula in stacking the wings and then filling in the roster with whatever cash is left.

As for Roslovic, if you assume he's playing well enough to be a definitive upgrade on Little, you have to assume he's going to make more than Little.

The only way I offer Wheeler 6 years is if it’s a descending salary making his cap hit less as the years increased. Just because he takes a 4-5 year deal now, doesn’t mean he could get a 1-3 year deal after that one btw. Look at the deals Joe Thornton has been signing in SJ, for instance.

All those players could be replaced by ELC players by the time 2019 commences. Vesalainen for Perreault, Niku for Kulikov and Poolman for Myers. Myers is a 3rd pair dman w/ a 5.5M Cap hit, that is one of the least optimal disbursements of salary on the roster atm. However, it is a luxury the could afford over the past few years but not after this year.

Why do you think the Jets GM would be able to dictate terms to an impending UFA as successful as Wheeler?

 

[DRW204]

The assumption is that you're getting an upgrade on Little at 2C for the same price. This is my whole issue, so I won't assume it. I don't see a winning formula in stacking the wings and then filling in the roster with whatever cash is left.
As for Roslovic, if you assume he's playing well enough to be a definitive upgrade on Little, you have to assume he's going to make more than Little.
Why do you think the Jets GM would be able to dictate terms to an impending UFA as successful as Wheeler?

The assumption is that you're getting an upgrade on Little at 2C for the same price. This is my whole issue, so I won't assume it. I don't see a winning formula in stacking the wings and then filling in the roster with whatever cash is left.

What are you talking about man? The Leafs spend 44.5M in that scenario on their top 6, the Jets spend 40.4M. The Jets can dump Little if they please and acquire either via trade or UFA a 2C of 6m-7m value for their production and still be under the Leafs spend at 44.5M. What don’t you get? They're able to stack the wings b/c the discount they are getting on their 1C is so large. Heck they were prepared to re-sign Stastny this off-season. I am sure they have a future salary outlook in order to make it all fit.

As for Roslovic, if you assume he's playing well enough to be a definitive upgrade on Little, you have to assume he's going to make more than Little.

Not at all. Roslovic can be bridged if necessary in order to make it work in the short-term.

Why do you think the Jets GM would be able to dictate terms to an impending UFA as successful as Wheeler?

I said that’s what I would offer Wheeler. I have no idea what the Chevy will do for him. I just hope longer the term the lesser the cap hit, that’s all. I would hope if Wheeler wants more term he'd concede on the cap hit. 4x8M vs 5x7.5m, something like that

Also based on what I am seeing for several players on capfriendly, albeit not many as productive as wheeler, who are 32-33 years old they are netting 3-5 years on their deals. Marian Gaborik looks to be the only Fwd who was 32 and got a deal of 7 years. Take it FWIW

 

[SHANNYPLAN]

Wheeler on a line with Matthews would be unreal

Wheeler - Matthews - Marner
Marleau - Tavares - Nylander

but unfortunately we dont have the expandable assets it would take to get him, and he is too old, and will demand to much money to make sense long term

 

[Afterburner]

Chevy will work his magic and Wheeler will stay. He's too valuable on and off the ice for the franchise to lose.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

What are you talking about man? The Leafs spend 44.5M in that scenario on their top 6, the Jets spend 40.4M. The Jets can dump Little if they please and acquire either via trade or UFA a 2C of 6m-7m value for their production and still be under the Leafs spend at 44.5M. What don’t you get? They're able to stack the wings b/c the discount they are getting on their 1C is so large. Heck they were prepared to re-sign Stastny this off-season. I am sure they have a future salary outlook in order to make it all fit.

You're top 6 focus is too narrow - and it's a red herring concerning the Leafs. They also have Kadri and Rielly on sweetheart deals.

One contract where the Jets' 1C is paid a couple mil less than he's worth doesn't mean they can afford to pay a 32 year old winger big money and still fill out the rest of the roster optimally.

Not at all. Roslovic can be bridged if necessary in order to make it work in the short-term.

If he's playing well enough to be a definitive upgrade on Little, that's very much debatable. Why if he's performing at the level of say, a young center who fits that descriptor like Larkin, would he take a bridge deal?

I said that’s what I would offer Wheeler. I have no idea what the Chevy will do for him. I just hope longer the term the lesser the cap hit, that’s all. I would hope if Wheeler wants more term he'd concede on the cap hit. 4x8M vs 5x7.5m, something like that

Also based on what I am seeing for several players on capfriendly, albeit not many as productive as wheeler, who are 32-33 years old they are netting 3-5 years on their deals. Marian Gaborik looks to be the only Fwd who was 32 and got a deal of 7 years. Take it FWIW

I'd be surprised if any of them were as productive as Wheeler, which is my point.

I doubt Wheeler would have to take a 4 or 5 year deal to get 8 mil. With his track record, he'd be well within his rights to ask for 7 years. Gaborik got 4.875 mil per on a 7 year deal despite being a one-dimensional band-aid who scored 57 points in 88 games over the previous 2 seasons. Conversely, Wheeler's one of the most durable and productive wingers in the league.

 

[bumblebeeman]

My calculations already involve moving these players. They're going to have to be replaced with players making good money too, particularly Myers.

Myers' probable replacement (Tucker Poolman) just signed a 3 year 775k contract, so that will be a big cap savings.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Myers' probable replacement (Tucker Poolman) just signed a 3 year 775k contract, so that will be a big cap savings.

Sure. But you're replacing a defenseman who was 3rd in TOI/G at 21 minutes per and 2nd in points with 36 with a defenseman who has 24 career games where he averaged 12 minutes per and scored 2 points.

So long as the Jets are comfortable replacing productive, big responsibility players with unproven players up and down the roster, then yes, they can accommodate Wheeler. Whether that's a sound strategy is another matter.

 

[bumblebeeman]

Sure. But you're replacing a defenseman who was 3rd in TOI/G at 21 minutes per and 2nd in points with 36 with a defenseman who has 24 career games where he averaged 12 minutes per and scored 2 points.

So long as the Jets are comfortable replacing productive, big responsibility players with unproven players up and down the roster, then yes, they can accommodate Wheeler. Whether that's a sound strategy is another matter.

Well one thing that's for sure is they can't keep paying their bottom defense pairing ~10 million a year and expect to keep all their elite forwards and young stud defensemen together.

 

[DRW204]

Well one thing that's for sure is they can't keep paying their bottom defense pairing ~10 million a year and expect to keep all their elite forwards and young stud defensemen together.

Yup. What's less of a hit? Losing a bottom pairing PP specialist-RHD who has been pretty awful at Defense or your PPG 1RW Captain. Seems like an easy choice. Poolman will have growing pains, however he just has to be steady at EV and PK Defense in his expected role, not a high offensive catalyst. Morrissey can take Myers' role on PP2 quite adequately i would think. All these moves are a year away and there will be changes and ascensions throughout the roster and overall system.

The way the cap is disbursed currently (ie: in the bottom pairing) isn't optimal when guys like Laine and Connor are due for raises post-ELC, and when Wheeler is due for his next deal. The Jets could afford this luxury when the high end talent were on ELC. This will be addressed when the time comes.

 

[heilongjetsfan]

The only way I offer Wheeler 6 years is if it’s a descending salary making his cap hit less as the years increased.

That's not how the salary cap works. The cap hit is salary + bonuses ÷ years.

 

[Drake1588]

It's (total salary + total bonuses) / years, technically.

Wheeler will be aging, but not yet 35+ and therefore not eligible for performance bonuses - which are calculated at year's end and included as an overage penalty for the following year, if applicable.

His bonuses can only be of the signing variety, paid on July 1st for the year to come. They're indeed included as part of the cap hit.

Anyway, if his salary+bonuses is $9M and then $8M and then $8M and then $7M over a four-year deal, his cap hit will be $8M in all four years.

 

[BatVader]

Wheeler to Edmonton for Draisaitl
Screw the cap!!!!

 

[780il]

Wheeler to Edmonton for Draisaitl
Screw the cap!!!!

f*** no.