Big Mac's Bait Shop

[Holtbyisms]

I wouldnt count out Hobbs yet. He is still developing his game. He is only in his 2nd season in Hershey and has had to deal with injuries in both seasons.

I'm not counting him out, in just letting you know what my observations are from watching almost every one of his games the past two seasons. His skating is highly suspect and his decision making is rough most of the time. He's the type of b-level prospect that has tools but some glaring weaknesses. I was a lot higher on him in Juniors until I saw him along other professionals. Bowey also really only played two seasons in Hershey and was also injury plauged so they're comparable to a point.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Fishman has MANY boards, both with and without Holtby. Don’t be fooled.

 

[Silky mitts]

Fishman has MANY boards, both with and without Holtby. Don’t be fooled.

 

[txpd]

Fishman has MANY boards, both with and without Holtby. Don’t be fooled.

Of course. All the scenarios. I didn't say otherwise

 

[Sam Spade]

Man, I must be one cold hearted person cause I say you get rid of the player the year or two before he is done being productive.

Holtby plays this season and next and then you move on before you have to (over)pay him and then have to deal with getting rid of him when he inevitably goes downhill.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Loyalty means something doesn’t it?

If he prices himself out with too much term or AAV I get it, but if he’s still productive as in one on the best in the league, how do you say no if his demands are reasonable?

 

[Calicaps]

Man, I must be one cold hearted person cause I say you get rid of the player the year or two before he is done being productive.

Holtby plays this season and next and then you move on before you have to (over)pay him and then have to deal with getting rid of him when he inevitably goes downhill.

That's pretty cutthroat but also potentially self-destructive. You'd pass on a year or two of production from a proven guy based on a guess of when he'll stop being productive? That formula is more likely to be the wrong one than assuming the other way because you're opting for the unknown over the proven according to some arbitrary time line. Plus you risk your locker room chemistry and like CCR said, you show zero loyalty.

 

[Silky mitts]

That's pretty cutthroat but also potentially self-destructive. You'd pass on a year or two of production from a proven guy based on a guess of when he'll stop being productive? That formula is more likely to be the wrong one than assuming the other way because you're opting for the unknown over the proven according to some arbitrary time line. Plus you risk your locker room chemistry and like CCR sad, you show zero loyalty.

The flip side is you risk what happened with Fedorov and McPhee if you lowball Holtby with some take it or leave it deal and leave other guys in limbo. Beagle was the 5th Cap to lift the Cup and I’m not sure they offered him any contract because they couldn’t pay him close to what he was worth on the open market and everyone made out pretty well.

 

[Calicaps]

The flip side is you risk what happened with Fedorov and McPhee if you lowball Holtby with some take it or leave it deal and leave other guys in limbo. Beagle was the 5th Cap to lift the Cup and I’m not sure they offered him any contract because they couldn’t pay him close to what he was worth on the open market and everyone made out pretty well.

Agreed, but the Beagle scenario shows BMac doesn't operate that way. He'll negotiate with 70's people and if he determines he can't give Holtby what he really wants/can get elsewhere, he'll say so and let Braden make his own decision.

 

[Silky mitts]

Agreed, but the Beagle scenario shows BMac doesn't operate that way. He'll negotiate with 70's people and if he determines he can't give Holtby what he really wants/can get elsewhere, he'll say so and let Braden make his own decision.

I think the likeliest way it plays out it just that way, Caps offer like 3x7.5M at the most without a full no trade, then the agent says there’s no way I can’t get 7x7M from team X, think of all the good you can do with that money, there’s literally nothing more you can do with the Caps, you’re leaving the team in an excellent position - just can’t see him staying and it doesn’t mean anyone who thinks this doesn’t love Holtby.

 

[txpd]

Man, I must be one cold hearted person cause I say you get rid of the player the year or two before he is done being productive.

Holtby plays this season and next and then you move on before you have to (over)pay him and then have to deal with getting rid of him when he inevitably goes downhill.

Or would rather win the cup that first season of a new Holtby deal or lose with a first time starter? At this point I am for winning first, asset management second. Cold hearted is necessary, but the cold hearted asset management might have been to let Oshie walk rather than sign that contract he got. But he was a primary factor in winning the cup.

See, I would rather keep a player to a bad 5 year contract if I get a shot at the cup the first 2 years because he is still there.

 

[txpd]

Agreed, but the Beagle scenario shows BMac doesn't operate that way. He'll negotiate with 70's people and if he determines he can't give Holtby what he really wants/can get elsewhere, he'll say so and let Braden make his own decision.

Beagle was a not shot kind of thing. The Caps couldn't come close to the deal he got. I would be shocked to find that situation comes up with Holtby.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I can easily recall at least three young russian goalies who are better players at the moment than Samsonov, one of them is not even drafted yet and none of them in the NHL right now. All these articles just hyping up high-drafted NHL prospects.

“better”....by what metrics, exactly?

 

[Ridley Simon]

Samsonov is available but Johansen is not? Why?


What have you seen from Johansen that has given you any sense he's going to be a good NHL player. I would move Johansen in a heart beat, he's undersized, he doesn't seem to do any one thing particularly well, he seems like his ceiling is being just a standard NHL d-man.

Samsonov is going to be someone's next franchise G, I'd prefer it be us.

Look who you are asking. That should be all you need to know.

Opinion. In all of its glory. Which is just fine, right?

 

[Ridley Simon]

They have a historically inconsistent Holtby one summer away from a huge payday... I mean, that alone is enough to hoard all the G prospects you can.

While I'm more team Vanecek in the intermediate, Samsonov clearly has franchise G potential. The thing with G's in the modern game is to stay relevant you basically have to have an NHL caliber one in the barrel as your current stud gets put out to pasture or free agency. You can list Russian G prospects all you want, but 0 of those guys are playing a NA style game which is why I'm so in on Samsonov. The amount of traffic in front of the net in the KHL is non-existent, and the times a G gets bumped is basically 0. Those guys look great, but they're also just sitting back and picking off wristers and slap shots with a clear lane, the toughest thing the have to deal with is breakaways. Samsonov is so well regarded because his fundamentals and body positioning have allowed him to make a smooth transition to the NA game. I would certainly keep him in the A for a year, but I'm not certain G prospects like him come from Russia too often.

This little streak at Hershey for Samsonov has been pretty impressive, hasn’t it? Sure...small sample size and all, I get that. But it’s been a terrific streak.

 

[Devil Dancer]

If the Caps traded a still productive Bondra who clearly didn't want to go, they can trade Holtby.

 

[kicksavedave]

Loyalty means something doesn’t it?

If he prices himself out with too much term or AAV I get it, but if he’s still productive as in one on the best in the league, how do you say no if his demands are reasonable?

Right now he ranks 27th in Sv% and 36th in GAA among qualified goalies, that's just not "must sign" numbers. And yes I get some of that belongs to his defense but its also true that a decent part of that belongs to him also. And I trust BMac to analyze in detail exactly how much blame for those dreadful numbers belong to which part.

Again I think this Cup defense will be hugely weighted towards his future in or out of DC. I think we'd all take those crappy numbers every year if he helps us win another Cup or two or at least allows them to compete for one.

 

[peterthegreat12]

If the Caps traded a still productive Bondra who clearly didn't want to go, they can trade Holtby.

Still remember watching his interview when he reacted to the trade. The guy was crying, hard to see.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I think the likeliest way it plays out it just that way, Caps offer like 3x7.5M at the most without a no trade, then the agent says there’s no way I can’t get 8x7M from team X, think of all the good you can do with that money, there’s literally nothing more you can do with the Caps, you’re leaving the team in an excellent position - just can’t see him staying and it doesn’t mean anyone who thinks this doesn’t love Holtby.

I think the market you’re projecting is fantasy (8x7).

 

[hb12xchamps]

I'm not counting him out, in just letting you know what my observations are from watching almost every one of his games the past two seasons. His skating is highly suspect and his decision making is rough most of the time. He's the type of b-level prospect that has tools but some glaring weaknesses. I was a lot higher on him in Juniors until I saw him along other professionals. Bowey also really only played two seasons in Hershey and was also injury plauged so they're comparable to a point.

Agreed, his skating is suspect IMO. I would be okay with moving Hobbs in a deal. There’s just too many D prospects and it makes no sense to hold onto all of them.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Right now he ranks 27th in Sv% and 36th in GAA among qualified goalies, that's just not "must sign" numbers. And yes I get some of that belongs to his defense but its also true that a decent part of that belongs to him also. And I trust BMac to analyze in detail exactly how much blame for those dreadful numbers belong to which part.

Again I think this Cup defense will be hugely weighted towards his future in or out of DC. I think we'd all take those crappy numbers every year if he helps us win another Cup or two or at least allows them to compete for one.

He’s not playing great in my eyes, but you have to give him the postseason before weighing in.

 

[Empty Goal Net]

So many unknowns re. Holtby. Hard to see the Caps of old moving him, seeing as they kept Olie way beyond his useful shelf life. But BMac is not GMGM and the current team has a much wider group of publicly recognizable faces than the Caps of 2004.

No doubt they have expectations for their players and multiple scenarios worked out, so many variables will be at play. How do all the Caps' goalies perform over the next season and a half? What happens with the salary cap? Nicky is also up for a new deal beginning in fall 2020. What is his ask? What are Ovie's plans for after his contract expires in mid-2021?

If Holtby is looking for a long-term deal that would shut out the Caps' tender prospects and potentially have negative effects on other contracts, that could be a problem for the team. If his RS & playoff performance through the end of the 2019/20 season is close to his 2018 Cup Run, then he might deserve a big payday from someone. We'll see what plays out. Interesting times.

 

[Silky mitts]

I think the market you’re projecting is fantasy (8x7).

I realize now it can only be 7 years; whatever Bob gets should be what Holtby asks for minimum because he’s so much better in the playoffs, and I think Bob clears that easy.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Hurts me to see these Hobbs negative remarks. Kinda like Matty Perr. back in the day, he’s been a dark horse favorite prospect of mine to make the big club.

No chance injuries have simply been derailing him?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

If the Caps traded a still productive Bondra who clearly didn't want to go, they can trade Holtby.

Depends on where the franchise is competively....if near the cellar....definitely.