Bettman got 4% raise last year

Fugu

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Fugu - you raise interesting points and figures, and educated me (at least) along the way.

I guess my question then is this: if things are as uneven as you state economically - and I have no basis whatsoever to dispute your information - why then is Bettman seemingly in good favor among NHL owners? (Not to be confused with many NHL fans' opinion of him.)

My own speculation leads me to conclude that he's in very good standing with a core group of hardline owners, and always has been. I think this group includes Jacobs, Snider, AEG, formerly Wirtz, Leipold, formerly Hotchkiss and the Oilers previous ownership group. He isn't on good terms with Ilitch or Dolan, for example, and I'd imagine MLSE are at odds on at least one matter (the Nov 2006 letter on territorial rights). Obviously Moyes went his own way, in a big way. What about ASG? All speculation really.

With regard to Calgary and Edmonton, they really were hurting, but it was currency instability coupled to the need to pay out in USD while earning in the CAD.

I also believe Bettman has taken several of his cues from the NBA. I don't view this as an evil thing, just an objective observation that several of the more powerful owners in the NHL also own(ed) NBA teams. What one learns in one league may seem to be applicable in the other-- and to a certain extent this may be true.

Thus they all may be "comfortable" with the approach and with each other.

If you aren't going to have a sports league that has relegation built into it along the lines of European leagues, then how do you breach the gap between massive markets and the 'barely big enough to register', who all have somehow come together as equals in one league?

As you note, revenue sharing is the real answer from the revenue side of things, but it's completely unacceptable from the ROI side of the equation. Each owner owns one team, not shares in the league, and thus each owner has invested vastly differing sums of money (Molson group at $500+ MM vs Vinik in TB at $100 MM + assumption of that year's remaining operational costs).

Cap systems are an evolutionary change to this reality--- increasing competition for players among a group of teams with vast disparities in income. Why not? It's that or a luxury tax or soft caps, etc., but if you're going to stick to the single league of equals model, you have to get creative. The other factor that offered protection to lesser equals was a restraint on free agency and lack of information for players on salaries. That has also changed drastically in the past two or so decades.

In a sense, the cap system with some level of revenue sharing was palatable to both big and small because both benefited from the expected savings the cap would bring. The bigger teams would spend less money overall -- in spite of writing the big transfer checks -- because they'd also spend less on players due to there being a cap. The smaller teams would get help paying for the players. It was supposed to be a win/win.

Where I believe it went off the rails is that the NHL treated the small Canadian markets similarly to the US smaller revenue generators. It was supposed to be a one size fits all solution. I guess no one expected the USD to crash against the CAD. The other factor is that everyone promised 'winning' so the teams most in need of a boost (the small revenue teams) were usually the worst in on ice performance as well. Maybe the 'Any Given Sunday' promise was the wrong to make?

Today we're at a point where the Canadian teams have driven a good chunk of the cap growth, while any US growth only feeds the fire, so-to-speak. Did anyone really expect the ceiling to be at $64 MM within five years of the lockout? Had the growth come from the weakest teams [who ostensibly were going to benefit from parity], it might have worked out. Only problem is that you weren't going to have the big boys sitting on the sidelines so the others could catch up--- at their expense.


As for the franchises treading water: to be sure, that remains part of his challenge as Commissioner. But without putting spin on this, it's not unreasonable to expect that some franchises in any kind of business model of this type are going to underperform, no? I mean, the McDonalds in Sheboygen, Wisconsin certainly does nowhere near as well financially as the one in downtown Manhattan.

I suppose bonafide revenue sharing might address this issue to an extent, but that seemingly is a non-starter.

It really may be that the real problem is simply structural. Should Sheboygan be competing head on with Manhattan? Europeans approach it differently. Why have US leagues chosen this direction?


(I think the answer is the TV network expectations, but that assumes those guys actually know what they're talking about.... I'd say they don't if they just keep showing the same 6 teams over and over. I don't know really, to be honest.)
 

bbud

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Sep 10, 2008
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What does this even mean? Can you elaborate?

I can but was simply saying its same old cronyisms , GB makes sure he cuddles /coddles or whatever it takes to keep Jacobs and his little bff group happy and gets rewarded for it i personally dislike him will be happy the day he is gone as i do believe Canadian teams will never ever win a stanley cup as long as he is there he has succeeded his entire career so far .
 

Bear of Bad News

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Sep 27, 2005
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I can but was simply saying its same old cronyisms , GB makes sure he cuddles /coddles or whatever it takes to keep Jacobs and his little bff group happy and gets rewarded for it i personally dislike him will be happy the day he is gone as i do believe Canadian teams will never ever win a stanley cup as long as he is there he has succeeded his entire career so far .

Thank you for elaborating - I appreciate it.
 

v-man

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Apr 19, 2006
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I can but was simply saying its same old cronyisms , GB makes sure he cuddles /coddles or whatever it takes to keep Jacobs and his little bff group happy and gets rewarded for it i personally dislike him will be happy the day he is gone as i do believe Canadian teams will never ever win a stanley cup as long as he is there he has succeeded his entire career so far .

While I can't argue about his cronyism, you can't blame him for Canadian teams not winning the Stanley Cup. They're all on an equal playing field, and the only reason Vancouver lost is because they tanked it, not because of anything GB did.
 

Jonas1235

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Jan 8, 2008
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Calgary
There's people in this thread saying that the NHL's growth is because of the Canadian dollar and isn't real growth. But isn't that the same as a businesses on the stock market going up in value because their product becomes more in demand? Or how the price of gold keeps going upwards.

Monetary growth is still financial growth.
 

Butch 19

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May 12, 2006
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I can but was simply saying its same old cronyisms , GB makes sure he cuddles /coddles or whatever it takes to keep Jacobs and his little bff group happy and gets rewarded for it i personally dislike him will be happy the day he is gone as i do believe Canadian teams will never ever win a stanley cup as long as he is there he has succeeded his entire career so far .

So, it's safe to assume you're part of the 10% that think Elvis is still alive?


And GB may personally dislike you as well.
 

Gnashville

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Jan 7, 2003
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I can but was simply saying its same old cronyisms , GB makes sure he cuddles /coddles or whatever it takes to keep Jacobs and his little bff group happy and gets rewarded for it i personally dislike him will be happy the day he is gone as i do believe Canadian teams will never ever win a stanley cup as long as he is there he has succeeded his entire career so far .
:shakehead:laugh:

Most of Canada wanted the Canucks to lose also.
 

Killion

Registered User
Feb 19, 2010
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Thank you for elaborating - I appreciate it.

:biglaugh::thumbu:

:shakehead:laugh:

Most of Canada wanted the Canucks to lose also.

How'd you cotton on to that one from all the way down there in Arizona?. :huh:

because you win trophys for your game face alone?...
because you have proof the Bermuda Triangle is actually a parallelogram?...
because you once ran a marathon backwards just to see what coming in second place looks like?...


:cheers:
 

Fugu

Guest
There's people in this thread saying that the NHL's growth is because of the Canadian dollar and isn't real growth. But isn't that the same as a businesses on the stock market going up in value because their product becomes more in demand? Or how the price of gold keeps going upwards.

Monetary growth is still financial growth.


If your business is currency trading or hedging, then it's the only kind of growth in which you're interested.

For businesses that provide a product or service, it's necessary to understand if you're growing due to selling more units or to more customers, or if you sold the same amount but you raised prices, for example. Organic growth is a barometer of how well you're doing at selling your product/service. If more people bought what you're selling, and they were paying you as much if not more than previous years, that's a good sign. If you sold the same amount or more, but had to slash prices in half, that's not a good sign.

I think you get the point.

NHL teams don't get revenues solely from ticket sales, and the number of tickets they can sell any given year is a fixed number. Supply isn't infinite. They have several sources of revenue in addition to ticket sales, so it's important to understand how each segment is doing for a team or the league.

Gains or losses in translating a currency can be highly misleading because what the NHL does is select one annual figure (that year's average from Jul-Jun 30) and translates all the revenues earned in CAD from all sources to come up with one figure. Let's say they had $100MM in CAD revenues one year. For the Canadian teams, it's mostly irrelevant what the USD does except with regard to player salaries. They'll still earn $100 MM CA, but they'll have X% more or less gain/loss in USD based on when they have to buy the US dollars.

One area where the NHL does benefit if the CAD rises is for the national contracts in Canada. If CBC is paying them $100 MM CA, and the value of the CAD increases, the NHL will translate that money into USD at some point when it's beneficial to do so, and have more money than projected when they signed the agreement. As far as the cap calculation goes, they don't have to report the actual gain (which could have been more than year's average). [I'm assuming the CBC's contract is negotiated in CAD and not USD, btw.]
 

Killion

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Feb 19, 2010
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If your business is currency trading or hedging, then it's the only kind of growth in which you're interested.

Finally, someone touches on the crux of the issue here in considering Gary Bettmans performance as Commissioner of the NHL from 94 through 2011. Just how much of the leagues growth was due to "organic factors" as opposed to that particular individuals hand being on the tiller?. What exactly has he ever really done, pro-actively, that vaults his reputation into the stratosphere based solely on the growth of league wide revenues?. Right guy, right place, right time who simply "reacts" as opposed to giving anything much thought or conscience, a "custodian"?, Or is he in fact some kind of Machiavellian Lex Luthor with plans & contingencies that run the alphabet?. An overachiever with a Napolean Complex or a decidedly pedestrian attorney from Long Island?.

Currency trading is simply a game, played to perfection by the late Edward the VII prior to, during & post WW2, which unfortunately for him brought on some unwanted attention from the US Treasury Dept but I digress. The Rothschilds & many other families having built much of their wealth on that precept. Most of the major Euro football leagues employ major money trading houses to hedge funds, the German's with the Bundesliga in particular, the most successful sports league on the planet. Here in North America, the games a little more direct, trading Yankee Greenbacks against the Loonie in order to show profit where often its in reality a loss. Again, is this mechanism one conceived by & devised by Herr Bettman or more likely the NHL's accountancy firms & merchant bankers?. Its truly quite complicated & complex, but with patience & focus, the scales, bars & notes (pun intended) can be understood & played to perfection.
 

Crazy_Ike

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There's people in this thread saying that the NHL's growth is because of the Canadian dollar and isn't real growth.

Those people have been mathematically shown to be wrong, but continue to say it anyways. The Canadian dollar hasn't grown anywhere near enough to be responsible for even a fifth of league revenue growth.

I would demonstrate it again but considering its been ignored the two times I did it before and the falsehood perpetuated I don't much see the sense. Simply ignore that argument and be aware that revenue growth has not been driven by currency.
 

Fugu

Guest
Those people have been mathematically shown to be wrong, but continue to say it anyways. The Canadian dollar hasn't grown anywhere near enough to be responsible for even a fifth of league revenue growth.

I would demonstrate it again but considering its been ignored the two times I did it before and the falsehood perpetuated I don't much see the sense. Simply ignore that argument and be aware that revenue growth has not been driven by currency.

I'd like to see your math, Ike. I'll tell you one thing though. I'd trust Fourier's math before anyone else around these parts. :

Originally Posted by mouser
For those interested in guesstimating what effect the USD/CDN exchange rate might have on HRR this season, here are some figures to get you rolling:

08-09 season noon rates, 251 days, average $0.8625
09-10 season noon rates to date, 69 days, average $0.9135

You can estimate a final average value for 09-10 by plugging in your estimate for the rest of the 09-10 season.

Rate = (0.9135*69 + $ESTIMATE*182)/251

For example if today's closing rate of $0.9492 stayed consistent the rest of the season that would yield a final 09-10 NHL season HRR exchange rate of $0.9394.

rates from BOC:
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/rates/exchange-look.html

I have used the figure of $8.5M for every 1 cent change in the $CDN. So using your projected figure of $0.9394 it looks to me like we would have about $60M US in additional HRR.

http://hfboards.com/showpost.php?p=21541743&postcount=14


Now imagine if you will a CAD that is even higher in value.


The thing that you fail to show, or for that matter, the other mathematicians have failed to show is exactly has grown. Furthermore I certainly didn't say that ALL of the growth has been in currency translation, but keep in mind that if Calgary, for example, increased its revenues by 5% in a year where the CAD also increased in value, you will see revenues from Calgary that will be greater than the 5% they achieved in the NHL's tally.
 

Ogopogo*

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Bettman is doing a good job. The salary cap is the greatest thing ever brought into the NHL and Bettman was instrumental in making that happen.

Good work Gary.
 

Crazy_Ike

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I'd like to see your math, Ike.

Then you should have read it when I posted it before. It's in my history you'll just have to look it back up.

I'll tell you one thing though. I'd trust Fourier's math before anyone else around these parts. :

http://hfboards.com/showpost.php?p=21541743&postcount=14

Now imagine if you will a CAD that is even higher in value.

Fourier's math is reasonably close to mine where I demonstrated just how high the Canadian dollar had to go to actually be a substantial part of revenues. But 60m out of a ~3b industry is not a very large chunk. Remove it, and you find the NHL is STILL getting record revenues even if the Canadian dollar was nowhere near what it is now.

This is, of course, because the CAD exchange rate is not a significant contributor to revenues.

The thing that you fail to show, or for that matter, the other mathematicians have failed to show is exactly has grown.

wut

Furthermore I certainly didn't say that ALL of the growth has been in currency translation, but keep in mind that if Calgary, for example, increased its revenues by 5% in a year where the CAD also increased in value, you will see revenues from Calgary that will be greater than the 5% they achieved in the NHL's tally.

The difference is insignificant on a leaguewide basis. A 5% increase for Calgary increases their revenue from what is likely about 100m US to 105m US; if they were at 80 cents before and finished at 90 cents US, then at best we're looking at about a 10-15m increase. Six teams, with Toronto being about double that and Montreal 1.5x... just under 100m total. Again, a drop in the bucket compared to 3b revenue (about 3%) and revenue gains haven't been following the Canadian dollar anyways. NHL revenues grew something like 15% last year alone, while this currency growth only accounts for 3% of revenue.

Mathematically insignificant and empirically dubious. Currency is NOT the driving factor in NHL revenues.

Sorry, Fugu, the money just isn't there for your CAD theory to hold water. It hurts even more when you realize the NHL revenue has grown considerably more than the Canadian dollar has in the last two years which means the NHL revenues would still be showing significant non-currency growth even if the entire league was based in Canada. Numbers just aren't there for that theory to stand up to scrutiny.
 

Fourier

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Dec 29, 2006
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This is, of course, because the CAD exchange rate is not a significant contributor to revenues.
I don't agree with this statement though there is no clear definition of what significant means. Since the big downturn, the change in the $CDN has played a big role in the league's revenue growth. If I had to guess off the top of my head I would say that the number is about 40-45%, with the relative impact being somewhat smaller this year. That said I do agree that if you go back to the lockout that the change in the $CDN has been less of a factor in revenue growth than many people suggest.

The difference is insignificant on a leaguewide basis. A 5% increase for Calgary increases their revenue from what is likely about 100m US to 105m US; if they were at 80 cents before and finished at 90 cents US, then at best we're looking at about a 10-15m increase. Six teams, with Toronto being about double that and Montreal 1.5x... just under 100m total. Again, a drop in the bucket compared to 3b revenue (about 3%) and revenue gains haven't been following the Canadian dollar anyways. NHL revenues grew something like 15% last year alone, while this currency growth only accounts for 3% of revenue.

Mathematically insignificant and empirically dubious. Currency is NOT the driving factor in NHL revenues.
I am not really sure where you got the 15% figure from. To me it looks like it is about 9.5%. But in any case, I will try and find some time to work this out a little more accurately.

From the lockout until the downturn I would have said that revenue growth was actually quite broad across the league. But since the downturn I think that has been less the case. If I had to guess I would say that about half of the teams have experienced very minimal growth.
 

Fugu

Guest
Keeping in mind that this $3 billion industry receives about a third (or more) of its revenues denominated in the CAD, and yes, the currency fluctuation indeed may be significant. It's been established that the six teams in Canada plus the national TV money from Canada is far greater than Ike would like to acknowledge. Per capita, Canadian fans simply spend.

So again, no one said ALL the growth was from CAD, but it has had a wonderful compounding effect. What I still keep asking for, and will likely never see, is NHL revenues expressed in CAD (especially for the Cdn team portion). :)


Edit: There's a quote from Daly about 2-3 yrs back, when iirc the NHlL's revenues grew about 11%. I believe he mentioned 4-5% of that was currency value gains.... so a third? Yes, that's significant.
 

Fourier

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Waterloo Ontario
Not to restart the great 1/3 wars, but I would expect the number to be somewhat higher at this point. Indeed, given the disproportionate amount of recent growth that that has come from north of the boarder we may well have been getting close to the fabled 40% number in terms of the proportion of revenue that is in $CDN. Factor in the move of the Jets to Winnipeg and I would say that a case could be made that going forward we could well break this barrier. This helps to strengthen your point even further.
 

Fugu

Guest
Not to restart the great 1/3 wars, but I would expect the number to be somewhat higher at this point. Indeed, given the disproportionate amount of recent growth that that has come from north of the boarder we may well have been getting close to the fabled 40% number in terms of the proportion of revenue that is in $CDN. Factor in the move of the Jets to Winnipeg and I would say that a case could be made that going forward we could well break this barrier. This helps to strengthen your point even further.


I'd forgotten about the Jets, and agree that if the Canadian teams have been contributing disproportionately more in real/organic growth, we probably are much closer to the fabled 40% (per Melnyk, btw). ;)


@Ike:


Sorry, Fugu, the money just isn't there for your CAD theory to hold water. It hurts even more when you realize the NHL revenue has grown considerably more than the Canadian dollar has in the last two years which means the NHL revenues would still be showing significant non-currency growth even if the entire league was based in Canada. Numbers just aren't there for that theory to stand up to scrutiny.

You appear to treat NHL revenue as detached from the Cdn teams' revenues or national contracts in Canada? There is real growth that has nothing to do with the CAD (until the NHL translates that portion), but a good portion of that revenue growth originates in Canada. That's a point you seem to avoid every time. Where is the money coming from, Ike? Which teams?
 

Crazy_Ike

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Keeping in mind that this $3 billion industry receives about a third (or more) of its revenues denominated in the CAD, and yes, the currency fluctuation indeed may be significant. It's been established that the six teams in Canada plus the national TV money from Canada is far greater than Ike would like to acknowledge.

This has been claimed, not established. The best numbers I've seen put it at about a quarter, which fits in nicely with the numbers being used for this.

So again, no one said ALL the growth was from CAD, but it has had a wonderful compounding effect.

The effect is very small.

What I still keep asking for, and will likely never see, is NHL revenues expressed in CAD (especially for the Cdn team portion).

Actually, that number was worked out in the previous posts of mine that showed the actual absolute growth from Canadian teams. If you "will never see", it's because you ignored the posts showing it to you. In any event, the final outcome simply showed the 60m (or so) you've already said you trust.

[Edit: There's a quote from Daly about 2-3 yrs back, when iirc the NHlL's revenues grew about 11%. I believe he mentioned 4-5% of that was currency value gains.... so a third? Yes, that's significant.

Sounds like the period when the CAD shot up twenty cents. You don't get to keep counting that increase as a currency gain every year, you know - the dollar doesn't keep dropping back down during the NHL offseason only to pop back up at the end of the season.
 

Crazy_Ike

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Mar 29, 2005
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I don't agree with this statement though there is no clear definition of what significant means. Since the big downturn, the change in the $CDN has played a big role in the league's revenue growth. If I had to guess off the top of my head I would say that the number is about 40-45%, with the relative impact being somewhat smaller this year. That said I do agree that if you go back to the lockout that the change in the $CDN has been less of a factor in revenue growth than many people suggest.

I don't need to guess off the top of my head, it mathematically cannot be even close to that high.

The math is quite simple. The league claimed a 15% revenue increase earlier in the year but lets conservatively estimate it at 300m gain. You give a 40% number which is 120m. Canadian teams factor in at about 750m revenue or so in 2010. That's a 16% increase in revenues from currency alone. The CAD has grown about 10% in that time, give or take. This means for your 40% number to be true the revenue of the Canadian teams would actually need to be shrinking to account for the other 6%, which is unlikely to say the least.

If we assume the Canadian teams are growing their non-currency related revenues at a similar rate to US teams, and assuming double for Toronto and 1.5x for Montreal, you get about 20m in real revenue increase from Canadian teams. The rest is from currency, which means from 55m to 80m increase in revenues due to the 10% increase in the CAD depending on what share of revenues the Canadian teams are contributing to the league you happen to believe - somewhere between 15% and 25% of revenue growth over the last year and therefore not enough to be the driving force of revenue gain. The NHL would still have record revenue even if the Canadian dollar would have dropped.

It's also worth mentioning looking at it as if the US dollar has dropped (which in any event is more the case) rather than the CAD growing. Given this, the league US revenues have continued to grow despite the value of the US dollar falling back; trying to use the CAD as an argument against the league refuses to acknowledge this, and you can't have it both ways. Claiming the league revenues would be significantly lower if it weren't for the CAD begs the question that the league revenues would be significantly higher if it weren't for the flagging US dollar. Six in one hand, half a dozen in the other; either way points to the NHL performing very well regardless of currency exchange rates.

From the lockout until the downturn I would have said that revenue growth was actually quite broad across the league. But since the downturn I think that has been less the case. If I had to guess I would say that about half of the teams have experienced very minimal growth.

This is not wrong. NHL revenues have far outstripped the contribution of the Canadian dollar since the lockout, but the gains aren't completely even and while the NHL has done a lot better than many other companies during the downturn, there's still no doubt that US revenues slowed down. I should hope no one would be surprised by that.
 

Fourier

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Dec 29, 2006
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Waterloo Ontario
I don't need to guess off the top of my head, it mathematically cannot be even close to that high.

The math is quite simple. The league claimed a 15% revenue increase earlier in the year but lets conservatively estimate it at 300m gain. You give a 40% number which is 120m. Canadian teams factor in at about 750m revenue or so in 2010. That's a 16% increase in revenues from currency alone. The CAD has grown about 10% in that time, give or take. This means for your 40% number to be true the revenue of the Canadian teams would actually need to be shrinking to account for the other 6%, which is unlikely to say the least.

If we assume the Canadian teams are growing their non-currency related revenues at a similar rate to US teams, and assuming double for Toronto and 1.5x for Montreal, you get about 20m in real revenue increase from Canadian teams. The rest is from currency, which means from 55m to 80m increase in revenues due to the 10% increase in the CAD depending on what share of revenues the Canadian teams are contributing to the league you happen to believe - somewhere between 15% and 25% of revenue growth over the last year and therefore not enough to be the driving force of revenue gain. The NHL would still have record revenue even if the Canadian dollar would have dropped.

It's also worth mentioning looking at it as if the US dollar has dropped (which in any event is more the case) rather than the CAD growing. Given this, the league US revenues have continued to grow despite the value of the US dollar falling back; trying to use the CAD as an argument against the league refuses to acknowledge this, and you can't have it both ways. Claiming the league revenues would be significantly lower if it weren't for the CAD begs the question that the league revenues would be significantly higher if it weren't for the flagging US dollar. Six in one hand, half a dozen in the other; either way points to the NHL performing very well regardless of currency exchange rates.

Ike, your math may be quite simple. Unfortunately it is also clearly wrong.

As I said I will try to find the time to answer your post but to show just one pice of evidence let's take a look at your claim that revenues grew 15%. We know that the mid point of the cap is set in direct proportion to league revenues. The midpoint last year was $51.4M and the increase was $4.9M. That looks to me to be a 9.5% increase not the 15% you quote.

You are using a made up number of 25% of the league revenue in $CDN. We may not know the actual percentage, but we do know this is not even close top correct. This is not some feeling I have. We ran this one through the ringer some time ago. But as just one piece of evidence to support my position, we saw from the leaked Globe and Mail numbers from several years ago that the Canadian teams had between 28 and 29% of the leagues gate receipts. Factoring in known TV revenues and merchandising and the most conservative of us would have put the % of revenue in $CDN at between 31-33% at the time. Since then the disproportionate success of the Canadian franchises through the down-turn and the very significant rise in the $CDN would mean that this percentage would very likely have been between 36-40% of the actual revenues. (I am happy to live with the midpoint of 38%). So your estimate of $750M in revenues in $CDN needs to be explained.

Finally, your last point makes no sense since revenues are always quoted in $US.
 

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