So, a quick perusal of your links shows that every official voice in the league or NHLPA disagrees with your analysis of revenue splits?
Um, thanks, I guess.
Don't give me that, I've been here as long as you, I just choose not to battle the groupthink here as most of the educated voices that go contrary to it have gone... missing (case in point - the guy who pointed out the edit earlier in the thread), or simply tire of having to post or post rebuttals to the exact same arguments over and over as they get ignored (the fact I've already posted a detailed mathematical analysis of Canadian currency which was summarily ignored being a striking case in point). As we see from Fugu's post after yours, there's a considerable amount of positive feedback loopage coupled with some other posters posting utterly insane 'theories' ("Canada will never win a cup with Bettman as commissioner") that make it far too tiring to stay here for very long to defend the truth.
If you are admitting that the percentage isn't nearly as significant if you go before the US crash - which I believe you already have earlier - then you are not as far from my position as you think. When I worked the numbers the first time disproving Fugu I actually worked from 2004.
I have no problem saying that the Canadian share of league revenues has been stronger since the economic crash, though the degree of this is of course what is still being overstated.
You can if you like. All I see is theories to disregard the official statements from the league and NHLPA in order to substitute your own numbers. I can't stop you from doing that. I don't have to believe yours are more accurate, though.
Some did, some didn't. Some US teams did, some didn't too. Take out the unusually high increase from Montreal and the Canadian teams didn't really do any differently once the money came in, regardless of where it originated from. It's worth noting that the fact some Canadian teams did not grow even at the rate of the CAD (which indicates their true revenues actually shrank) seems to have been ignored. Stronger CAD at the rates you are claiming should have made for a smooth ratio of performance from the Canadian teams, but this did not happen.
I would have thought it goes without saying that if the US dollar was stronger, the relative contribution of Canadian teams would be lower, since a stronger US dollar raises its value relative to the Canadian dollar by definition. This is pretty basic stuff and the only reason I can see that you would argue against it is because you have misread it somehow. Do you really think Canadian team revenues relative to the total go up if the Canadian dollar goes up but US team revenues relative to the total don't go up if the US dollar goes up? No, you don't believe that, but you seem to be arguing it suddenly.
If you are a money person as you seem to be hinting, you must know that currency is simply a frame of reference. It doesn't matter in the least what it is reported in. Easy math:
Total revenues: 10b US
US revenues to Can revenues: 5b/5b
Dollars: 1:1
Cut the US dollar in half: 15b US total, contributions 5b from US 10b from Canada, Canadian contribution increases from 50% to 67%. Use CAD: 7.5b CAD total, contributions 2.5b from US 5b from Canada, Canadian contribution increases from 50% to 67%. That is the "US dollar got weaker" math. Or, from original numbers, double the strength of Canadian dollar. 15b US total, contributions 5b from US 10b from Canada, Canadian contribution increases from 50% to 67%. Use CAD: 7.5b CAD total, contributions 2.5b from US 5b from Canada, Canadian contribution increases from 50% to 67%. That's the "Canadian dollar got stronger" math.
The numbers stay exactly the same.
And so follows what I said. The ratio of Canadian team revenues to US team revenues
does not change whether or not you increase the value of the Canadian dollar or decrease the value of the US dollar at the same relative rate. Therefore, it is just as valid to say the US teams' relative share of the league revenues are underperforming because of a weak US dollar relative to the CAD as it is to say the Canadian teams' relative share of the league revenues are overperforming because of a strong CAD relative to the US dollar. However, because this indicates that the league is actually doing better than might be expected from their revenue, which runs counter to the prevailing opinion of those who dislike the league's leadership, this view is for some reason being disparaged, even though it uses the
exact same numbers.
Convert revenues to a third party and it would be blatantly obvious that I am right in this.
The league has already stated it is over 2.9b, but sure, let's use that.
What dates are you using? I've been using a more useful yearly increase of 10%. Using the more likely numbers actually supplied by official sources in your own links puts this at about 29%-30% so far.
Well, thank you for your numbers. They aren't necessarily right, mind you, but its nice to see the assumptions behind them.
Now lets go through your math using the numbers actually given by people with access to the real thing. Given 26% given by the NHLPA and Forbes (which jives with Bettman's statements, though he didn't give a direct number), boosted by a 10% currency gain to about 29% to be kind to you in rounding, and giving the same 2% you're assuming without any numbers from a CBC gain, we now have Canadian revenues at about 870m which oddly enough falls exactly in line with my own estimations from expected gains from 2010 if Canadian teams grew about the same as American teams.
10% lower to drop the currency increase is about 87m. 87m out of 400m is 22%, a bit higher than I was estimating but not out of the ballpark, and the actual amount (rather than the relative percentage) is very much inside what I was suggesting, if a bit at the high end.
Using your math shows my number to be correct using official sources, so unless you believe the NHL and NHLPA were/are lying, the only provable bias is in your own assumptions. I don't have any desire to fight this "1/3" battle with you as you've obviously spent far more time on it than I am willing to go into; I'll just stick with the official numbers given.
Given official numbers, the yearly gains from the Canadian currency is at best a yearly boost of 22% or so each of the last couple years, and since the lockout far less.
And that's undeniable regardless of whether or not Fugu thinks it is...
elegant.
Actually, the problem seems to be that you
are. You are using your assumptions or subjecting revenue to analysis that runs contrary to official sources that are in your own links. Hey I'm not going to say that is wrong. But you, in turn, cannot say my numbers are wrong while using the numbers actually stated by people who do, in fact, have direct access to the league books.
One other thing Fugu is wrong about - I DID, in fact, separate currency revenue from non-currency revenue - in fact, I showed that currency couldn't possibly be the most significant factor (defining this as 50%+) in league revenues because there simply wasn't enough of a gain.