Best case scenario if Pietrangelo walks

[Ranksu]

Best case scenario if we lose him, is if we can move Dunn+ and acquire a LHD that can put up some points and play on the top pairing with Parayko.
I’d personally be fine taking on a change of scenery guy like OEL, or just another guy in the same tier as him.

OEL/TBD-Parayko
Scandella-Faulk
Mikkola-Bortuzzo
Gunnarsson


Our pairings would be much more balanced, and I think our window would still be open.

I don't think so.

I would rather go

OEL - Pietro
Mikkola - Parayko
Dunn/Perunovich - Bortuzzo
Gunnar

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

I don't think so.

I would rather go

OEL - Pietro
Mikkola - Parayko
Dunn/Perunovich - Bortuzzo
Gunnar

Well we can’t afford that, and we just extended Scandella lol.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

Nearly $58mm is a huge gamble that change of scenery will boost OEL.

I don’t disagree, but he’ll probably be desperate after losing Petro

 

[blues80]

He should give him some bounses but not in years 7 and 8

 

[Reality Czech]

Best case scenario if we lose him, is if we can move Dunn+ and acquire a LHD that can put up some points and play on the top pairing with Parayko.

I’d personally be fine taking on a change of scenery guy like OEL, or just another guy in the same tier as him.

OEL/TBD-Parayko
Scandella-Faulk
Mikkola-Bortuzzo
Gunnarsson


Our pairings would be much more balanced, and I think our window would still be open.

I like the Scandella Parayko pairing, maybe find a solid LHD to pair with Faulk. I'm still not sold on Dunn fitting into our long term plans but I don't feel terrible about a third pair of Gunnar, Bortz and Mikkola.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

I like the Scandella Parayko pairing, maybe find a solid LHD to pair with Faulk. I'm still not sold on Dunn fitting into our long term plans but I don't feel terrible about a third pair of Gunnar, Bortz and Mikkola.

That’s totally fair. I mention someone like OEL because we’d be losing Petro and Dunn’s offense, and I don’t necessarily want 6/55 as the top pairing if Petro leaves. Scandella would be the best fit with Faulk in that case, and I do think Faulk needs a stay at home guy so he can play his style comfortably.

I also liked the Mikkola-Bortuzzo pairing earlier this year, and I think that’d be a solid defensive minded pair.

 

[Ranksu]

Hopefully they try out Mikkola - Parayko. Potential shutdown pair. Mikkola reminds so much of Jbo + Mikkola can physical game.

 

[Brian39]

The scary thing is not so much losing Petro, the scary thing is that our cupboard of young players coming up to replace vets is nil. Thomas is proven, but he's up for a raise after next season. Kyrou who I thought was going to be a good top 6 player may only be a bottom 6 player, too early to tell, but that clock is ticking. Kostin may not even be NHL quality if he can't get his head on straight. Other than that, who do we have offensive-wise that can make an impact in the next 2-3 years?

Defense-wise, I've given up on Walman as being nothing but an AHL tweener. Mikkola I hope is ready, but not someone who moves the meters. Perunovich is equivalent to Dunn except smaller. Don't know how he will be defensively.

The future is terrifying me unless the Blues start to sell off upcoming UFAs for picks and prospects or try and lure some UFA talent here. This just really feels like 2008-2011 coming at us again. A team that isn't that great, may make the playoffs but never go past the first round.

I think you are massively undercutting our prospect pool. It is shallow, but pretty much all of your statements are worst case scenario projections.

Dunn and Perunovich are very difficult to compare. They took polar opposite development paths and both still have a lot of upside. Both of them may stagnate, but they each still have the potential to be 50 point NHL D men. I think Perunovich is more likely to hit that target, but Dunn could get there if he can take the next step to being a top 4 guy. Having two young guys with that potential in your organization isn't just something to shrug off. Perunovich just had 40 points in 34 NCAA games as a 21 year old D man, won the Hobey Baker and led his back-to-back defending champ team to a top 5 ranking before the NCAA season was cancelled. Acting like his ceiling is just a 3rd pairing 30 point D man is just not accurate.

Kostin had 30 points in 48 AHL games as a 20 year old last season. And by all accounts he was greatly improved defensively. His 3 KHL games this season are his first pro games since turning 21. Acting like he is anywhere close to washing out of consideration as an NHLer absolute insanity. Everything about his development screams that he is on track to be a legit middle or bottom 6 NHLer.

I still think Kyrou projects out to a middle 6 guy. He strikes me as a guy who can put up some points as a passenger on a top 6 line or be the secondary driver on a 3rd line. He could fall short of that, but so far his usage in the NHL has come with a huge emphasis on developing his 2 way play. He wasn't good enough offensively to force the coaches to give him more leash, but at 22 that's not too surprising for a guy taken outside the 1st round. He is 29th in scoring among his draft class. 11th among non-first round picks from that draft. Is this a guarantee that he develops further? Of course not. But I bring it up to note that the lack of a breakthrough by a 22 year old 2nd rounder is incredibly common among guys who become legit contributors by their mid 20s. He's really not behind schedule to develop into a legitimate middle 6 offensive threat with potential top 6 upside.

The prospect pool is thin for sure. But it isn't as bleak as your post suggests and all 3 of these guys are still good bets to contribute. Mikkola may not "move the meter" as a stud D man, but he is absolutely develoing on schedule to be a quality bottom 4 defender. Which has notable value in the NHL.

I think we close the window if Petro walks, but not because we lack prospects who can step in and contribute. We should reliably have 2-3 guys in the system that contribute positively in the next 2 years.

 

[Celtic Note]

I think you are massively undercutting our prospect pool. It is shallow, but pretty much all of your statements are worst case scenario projections.

Dunn and Perunovich are very difficult to compare. They took polar opposite development paths and both still have a lot of upside. Both of them may stagnate, but they each still have the potential to be 50 point NHL D men. I think Perunovich is more likely to hit that target, but Dunn could get there if he can take the next step to being a top 4 guy. Having two young guys with that potential in your organization isn't just something to shrug off. Perunovich just had 40 points in 34 NCAA games as a 21 year old D man, won the Hobey Baker and led his back-to-back defending champ team to a top 5 ranking before the NCAA season was cancelled. Acting like his ceiling is just a 3rd pairing 30 point D man is just not accurate.

Kostin had 30 points in 48 AHL games as a 20 year old last season. And by all accounts he was greatly improved defensively. His 3 KHL games this season are his first pro games since turning 21. Acting like he is anywhere close to washing out of consideration as an NHLer absolute insanity. Everything about his development screams that he is on track to be a legit middle or bottom 6 NHLer.

I still think Kyrou projects out to a middle 6 guy. He strikes me as a guy who can put up some points as a passenger on a top 6 line or be the secondary driver on a 3rd line. He could fall short of that, but so far his usage in the NHL has come with a huge emphasis on developing his 2 way play. He wasn't good enough offensively to force the coaches to give him more leash, but at 22 that's not too surprising for a guy taken outside the 1st round. He is 29th in scoring among his draft class. 11th among non-first round picks from that draft. Is this a guarantee that he develops further? Of course not. But I bring it up to note that the lack of a breakthrough by a 22 year old 2nd rounder is incredibly common among guys who become legit contributors by their mid 20s. He's really not behind schedule to develop into a legitimate middle 6 offensive threat with potential top 6 upside.

The prospect pool is thin for sure. But it isn't as bleak as your post suggests and all 3 of these guys are still good bets to contribute. Mikkola may not "move the meter" as a stud D man, but he is absolutely develoing on schedule to be a quality bottom 4 defender. Which has notable value in the NHL.

I think we close the window if Petro walks, but not because we lack prospects who can step in and contribute. We should reliably have 2-3 guys in the system that contribute positively in the next 2 years.

I think this is a fair assessment of the prospect system. I would only add that while we have guys that can contribute, none look like top flight players that project to overcome the loses we may have soon.

(Edited: Reworded for clarity)

 

[Zizzle]

If our minor league system is as bleak as some suggest more of a reason to move the likes of Dunn, Bozak , Steen?

 

[Bluesnatic27]

If our minor league system is as bleak as some suggest more of a reason to move the likes of Dunn, Bozak , Steen?

Not really considering the Blues are trying to compete for a Cup. It makes little sense to make a move for the sole reason to bolster the prospect pool unless you're 100% convinced the team cannot compete. The reason to move any of those guys is to keep Pietrangelo in order to keep the Cup chances alive.

Saying that, it might hit the point to bolster the pool if the Blues keep losing their high end talent.

 

[tfriede2]

If our minor league system is as bleak as some suggest more of a reason to move the likes of Dunn, Bozak , Steen?

One of these is not like the other.

 

[Brian39]

I think this is a fair assessment of the prospect system. I would only add that while we have guys that can contribute, none look like top flight players that project to overcome the loses we may have soon.

(Edited: Reworded for clarity)

Agreed.

Which is why my stance for months has been "the window is right now so we should absolutely be willing to eat 2-3 painful years from a Petro contract in order to give us the best chance of winning right now." All of our moves for the last 2 years have been with an eye on winning right now. We've repeatedly traded prospects/picks for short to medium term help. We didn't just randomly get into a situation where our prospect pool was filled with potential contributors but not top flight talent. It was several conscious decisions to deplete the prospect pool in return for guys who would fill out the top half of the lineup.

Two 1sts for Schenn (and a Lehtera dump). And then we extended Schenn to a deal on a fair AAV in exchange for a term that will be painful. That trade and extension was 100% with an eye towards building and keeping a window open through 2023 (and possibly beyond, but not by many years).

A 1st, a 2nd and a former 1st round pick for ROR, who is locked up through 2022/23. With 5 years left on the deal, that trade was about a 5 year window (with the possibility of an extension at the end depending on how it goes).

A former 1st round pick and Eddy for Faulk, with an immediate extension. For better or worse in terms of evaluation, that trade and extension was 100% about winning now and for the next few years.

The overwhelmingly obvious strategy here is to win now, worry about 2024+ when it gets here and lean on the existing prospect pool to fill in holes in the middle/bottom of the lineup on cheap contracts. It makes no sense to deviate from that over concerns about what will happen in 2025 and beyond.

And to get back to the title of this thread, this is also why my strategy if we let Petro walk is to go full retool, sell roster players for futures and take another run at a Cup window in 2022 and beyond. Having Schenn/Faulk in the painful part of their contracts as we're in that window will hurt but is better than just being middling for a couple years and then tearing it down.

 

[Celtic Note]

Agreed.

Which is why my stance for months has been "the window is right now so we should absolutely be willing to eat 2-3 painful years from a Petro contract in order to give us the best chance of winning right now." All of our moves for the last 2 years have been with an eye on winning right now. We've repeatedly traded prospects/picks for short to medium term help. We didn't just randomly get into a situation where our prospect pool was filled with potential contributors but not top flight talent. It was several conscious decisions to deplete the prospect pool in return for guys who would fill out the top half of the lineup.

Two 1sts for Schenn (and a Lehtera dump). And then we extended Schenn to a deal on a fair AAV in exchange for a term that will be painful. That trade and extension was 100% with an eye towards building and keeping a window open through 2023 (and possibly beyond, but not by many years).

A 1st, a 2nd and a former 1st round pick for ROR, who is locked up through 2022/23. With 5 years left on the deal, that trade was about a 5 year window (with the possibility of an extension at the end depending on how it goes).

A former 1st round pick and Eddy for Faulk, with an immediate extension. For better or worse in terms of evaluation, that trade and extension was 100% about winning now and for the next few years.

The overwhelmingly obvious strategy here is to win now, worry about 2024+ when it gets here and lean on the existing prospect pool to fill in holes in the middle/bottom of the lineup on cheap contracts. It makes no sense to deviate from that over concerns about what will happen in 2025 and beyond.

And to get back to the title of this thread, this is also why my strategy if we let Petro walk is to go full retool, sell roster players for futures and take another run at a Cup window in 2022 and beyond. Having Schenn/Faulk in the painful part of their contracts as we're in that window will hurt but is better than just being middling for a couple years and then tearing it down.

We are absolutely of the same mindset on these topics.

 

[Bluesguru]

Myth ----------- Blues can't contend for Cup without Petro.

Fact ----------- Blues pick up Cap space, gain flexibility, may pick up more Cap space if Tarasenko is out for year. Army will improve team and Berube, the man who toughened up Petro and turned him into a better defenseman, will do the same with the new leadership group on D.

 

[MissouriMook]

Myth ----------- Blues can't contend for Cup without Petro.

Fact ----------- Blues pick up Cap space, gain flexibility, may pick up more Cap space if Tarasenko is out for year. Army will improve team and Berube, the man who toughened up Petro and turned him into a better defenseman, will do the same with the new leadership group on D.

I agree that we can contend, but I also feel like it will be harder without him - much harder. I am of the mindset that Army needs to figure out a way to trim some of the fat and free up some cap space regardless of whether or not Petro is coming back and regardless of how long Tarasenko ends up on LTIR. The former allows us the cap capital we need to go out and either improve the D (by bringing Petro back, because technically he will not be on the roster on October 9 if he does not re-sign) or to improve the forward group. There will be bargains to be had in trades and UFAs for teams with cap space, and I also feel that the teams that move the "fat" from their roster first will be the ones getting better returns on the marginal players and pay a lesser price for moving "anchor" contracts. I'll be really disappointed if we don't make another cap clearing move before the end of the weekend with the draft starting on Tuesday, but I also acknowledge that it takes two to tango.

 

[TruBlu]

I agree that we can contend, but I also feel like it will be harder without him - much harder. I am of the mindset that Army needs to figure out a way to trim some of the fat and free up some cap space regardless of whether or not Petro is coming back and regardless of how long Tarasenko ends up on LTIR. The former allows us the cap capital we need to go out and either improve the D (by bringing Petro back, because technically he will not be on the roster on October 9 if he does not re-sign) or to improve the forward group. There will be bargains to be had in trades and UFAs for teams with cap space, and I also feel that the teams that move the "fat" from their roster first will be the ones getting better returns on the marginal players and pay a lesser price for moving "anchor" contracts. I'll be really disappointed if we don't make another cap clearing move before the end of the weekend with the draft starting on Tuesday, but I also acknowledge that it takes two to tango.

I agree with you on that it will be harder without Petro. I'd bring up that there are many unknowns that go along with that. Will Tank return to form? Will Binny return to form? Even if we keep Petro, if those two go south then we need to make adjustments. We won't be able to if we sell the farm on his contract. The word on what he's being offered money-wise is already top tier, especially in a covid world. We lost a goalie that has proven to be 1A when in a tandem role and are replacing him with a guy that is wholly unproven. I want Petro to stay, but I think DA's vision is for the team's future and not because he's our captain that won our first cup. I hope Petro retires from the NHL as a BLUE, but the team is still here if he leaves, and that's who I root for.

 

[DeuceNine]

Myth ----------- Blues can't contend for Cup without Petro.

Fact ----------- Blues pick up Cap space, gain flexibility, may pick up more Cap space if Tarasenko is out for year.

Speculation---------------- Army will improve team and Berube, the man who toughened up Petro and turned him into a better defenseman, will do the same with the new leadership group on D.

FTFY

 

[BlueKnight]

In my opinion the worse case scenario is actually the best case scenario which i never saw coming, At least not this soon. Seeing some posts saying the Blues will be fine without Petro. I disagree, Petro is more important to the Blues than some people realise. Without Petro the Blues will be first round fodder at best.

If Petro walks just start a retool, Right then and there. Don't spin your wheels cause you ain't going nowhere. Im just being 100% completely honest.

 

[TruBlu]

In my opinion the worse case scenario is actually the best case scenario which i never saw coming, At least not this soon. Seeing some posts saying the Blues will be fine without Petro. I disagree, Petro is more important to the Blues than some people realise. Without Petro the Blues will be first round fodder at best.

If Petro walks just start a retool, Right then and there. Don't spin your wheels cause you ain't going nowhere. Im just being 100% completely honest.

What would you give to keep Petro?

 

[Brian39]

What would you give to keep Petro?

8 years at less than $9M AAV, structured so that we are stuck with the contract in years 6-8. That's a totally manageable contract for the time we are in our Cup window. It will be painful in the last 2-3 years, but by then almost all of our existing core will be aged out as well. We'll have either gone all in on our older guys and be in cap hell no matter what or we will have moved on from our aged guys to do a rebuild/retool midway through the Petro contract. If it is the latter, we will be relying on cheap guys on ELCs and 2nd contracts so that having an anchor in Petro isn't the end of the world. The pain of those last 2-3 years is worth keeping the window open right now. If you weren't willing to go through pain in 2025+, then the time to draw that line in the sand was last summer with Schenn/Faulk.

With all that said, it appears that Petro would accept way less than what my line in the sand is. It appears 8 years at $8M gets it done with the right structure. With the pandemic, it seems that both sides may have desire to back load, which could help negotiations since the act of backloading offers a form of buyout protection. A backloaded deal with $21M of bonuses and $9M of salary owed in the last 3 years is about as much buyout protection as he can realistically hope for. Spread a few million more bonus dollars throughout the deal to get over the bonuses we will pay ROR and we can say "this is a higher AAV, more total dollars and more bonus money than we have ever given." Add in a NMC, point out that backloading reduces his escrow hit and you could probably get the AAV down a touch. That is a hell of a lot of concessions by the Blues, so I think we could credibly say "we've moved a lot here, but since this essentially guarantees that you will be here at 37 and 38 we are asking you to help us build a good team then by getting that AAV down to 7.727M."

One nice thing about this structure would be that it minimizes the money the team will owe in the years that revenue is down. Another is that there is more time to bank some money to pay his bonuses. Instead of dealing with those "$20M of this contract is due in the first 366 days of the contract" issues, you have time to save that money to pay it out later.

Given everything that has been leaked/rumored/publicly negotiated, there is simply no excuse for letting him walk. It is pretty obvious that he is willing to stay here for much less than my line in the sand.

 

[TruBlu]

8 years at less than $9M AAV, structured so that we are stuck with the contract in years 6-8. That's a totally manageable contract for the time we are in our Cup window. It will be painful in the last 2-3 years, but by then almost all of our existing core will be aged out as well. We'll have either gone all in on our older guys and be in cap hell no matter what or we will have moved on from our aged guys to do a rebuild/retool midway through the Petro contract. If it is the latter, we will be relying on cheap guys on ELCs and 2nd contracts so that having an anchor in Petro isn't the end of the world. The pain of those last 2-3 years is worth keeping the window open right now. If you weren't willing to go through pain in 2025+, then the time to draw that line in the sand was last summer with Schenn/Faulk.

With all that said, it appears that Petro would accept way less than what my line in the sand is. It appears 8 years at $8M gets it done with the right structure. With the pandemic, it seems that both sides may have desire to back load, which could help negotiations since the act of backloading offers a form of buyout protection. A backloaded deal with $21M of bonuses and $9M of salary owed in the last 3 years is about as much buyout protection as he can realistically hope for. Spread a few million more bonus dollars throughout the deal to get over the bonuses we will pay ROR and we can say "this is a higher AAV, more total dollars and more bonus money than we have ever given." Add in a NMC, point out that backloading reduces his escrow hit and you could probably get the AAV down a touch. That is a hell of a lot of concessions by the Blues, so I think we could credibly say "we've moved a lot here, but since this essentially guarantees that you will be here at 37 and 38 we are asking you to help us build a good team then by getting that AAV down to 7.727M."

One nice thing about this structure would be that it minimizes the money the team will owe in the years that revenue is down. Another is that there is more time to bank some money to pay his bonuses. Instead of dealing with those "$20M of this contract is due in the first 366 days of the contract" issues, you have time to save that money to pay it out later.

Given everything that has been leaked/rumored/publicly negotiated, there is simply no excuse for letting him walk. It is pretty obvious that he is willing to stay here for much less than my line in the sand.

I agree with everything but the bolded. I hope you're right about the deal. The problem right now is that we just don't know what is being offered. If he planned on being here I'd expect he'd be willing to do what you suggested. I appreciate your knowledge of contract structure, btw.

 

[MissouriMook]

I agree with @Brian39 here. If he is willing to accept $64M (flat or backloaded) over 8 years with a full NMC and $20M-$25M of his compensation in the form of signing bonus, there is no excuse for Army not getting this done no matter when he wants the SB money. That is perfectly reasonable for a player of his stature, importance and accomplishments. Buyout proofing a contract for a team that never buys out contracts should make this a non-issue.

 

[Frenzy31]

I agree with @Brian39 here. If he is willing to accept $64M (flat or backloaded) over 8 years with a full NMC and $20M-$25M of his compensation in the form of signing bonus, there is no excuse for Army not getting this done no matter when he wants the SB money. That is perfectly reasonable for a player of his stature, importance and accomplishments. Buyout proofing a contract for a team that never buys out contracts should make this a non-issue.

You have to take into account cash flow. Everyone acts like signing bonuses are easy to do, but we really dont know the cash situation of the Blues. How much capital do they have on hand in July.

Think signing bonuses are bs myself. They are often part of NFL contracts, not those are not guaranteed.

 

[MissouriMook]

You have to take into account cash flow. Everyone acts like signing bonuses are easy to do, but we really dont know the cash situation of the Blues. How much capital do they have on hand in July.

Think signing bonuses are bs myself. They are often part of NFL contracts, not those are not guaranteed.

Cash flow should have very little to do with a position on signing bonuses. The CBA rules have taken most of the year-to-year variance out of the total compensation. And a team that isn’t financially healthy enough to have a bank line of credit to help them with cask flow variance has much bigger issues than this.

As a season ticket holder myself, I can assure you that even on my 8 month installment plan they have about half of my money by July or so for the coming season, and I expect some of their advertising and commercial account contracts are front loaded as well for reasons such as this.