Bertuzzi files for Arbitration (UPD: $3.5m)

[jkutswings]

By that math you could trade two Abdelkaders and a Bert for a McDavid.

Sold! I'll take one McDavid please.

 

[Oddbob]

Even if you expand it out to the last ten picks in the first round, just eyeballing the drafts from 2012-2016 says you're pretty unlikely to get a guy as valuable as Bert. Yeah, there is Pasternak one year, but there are a whole bunch of guys who played two or four games, put up nothing, and never saw the NHL again. @Frk It has posted graphs in the past showing expected point production by draft position and once you get out of the top10, it really gets ugly. There's actually a pretty big drop just within the top3.

Yeah, for whatever reason the picks in the 20-30 range of the 1st round tend to be duds, and more often than not, you end up with a Riley Sheahan level player. Trading Tyler for that range of 1st is silly from all angles as we almost guaranteed get a worse player out of it.

 

[Oddbob]

If Mantha plays 71 games like Larkin his numbers going to be-12, Fran's -15. Larkin -21

Mantha would easily have finished worse in +/- than Larkin and the only way he wouldn't is because Dylan plays more shifts against the other teams top offensive guys, which will bring all players down on a good team. Mantha doesn't do much more than poke and hope as far as defence is concerned.

Also, Nielsen was -13 or whatever it was and he only played 13 or so minutes a game and against other teams lower level lines. If he had played against the 1st lines all year with Dylan's ice time, he would have given AA a run for his money.

Go look at other years bad teams and good defensive guys like Larkin and you will see that their +/-'s get pretty ugly. 90% of the players on our team last year had way worse numbers in that category than they would have in just a normal last place finish. Also, Howard was brutal last year, no doubt, but the team still made him look worse than he was. He still had games early on where he played pretty well and deserved a win and the team was dreadful in our own end all year.

 

[kliq]

In 22-23

???? - Larkin - ????
???? - ???? -????
????- Veleno - ????
???? - ???? - ????
????, Nielsen

???? - Seider
???? - ????
Johansson - ?????
McIsaac

????
????

I really wonder what Yzerman is seeing if he's not seeing Bertuzzi in the future plans.

Not sure why you’re leaving out so many players lol, but you’re clearly trolling when you include Nielsen. Get someone else to bite.

 

[kliq]

I like Bert, too, and I'm not sure what there is to know about the guy that you couldn't have learned from the past two years. One thing to remember is that it was bert who filed for arbitration, not the team. Given the asking price for both of them I'm a bit surprised that they couldn't find some middle ground on a longer contract. If it was to save money, I think it was short sighted because I don't think Bert is going to be a radically different player next season than he was this past one. except them you're dealing with a guy with three straight 20 goal seasons under his belt and that much closer to UFA.

I'm with @r0bert8841 with the idea that if we really want team friendly cap hits, we need to be a better team. Also, we're probably going to see NTCs and MNTCs thrown around a bit. I'm fine with just fair deals for guys. The Nylander negotiations were crazy but is Nylander really overpaid? He just hung 30 goals up and 59 points in 68 games. That's pretty darn good production. Maybe Bert wanted something crazy for a 4-5 year deal, but any cap hit under $5m seems pretty fair to me considering the UFA years being eaten such a deal and how lousy this team is likely to be for most of those years.

Yes, I do think Nylander is overpaid. More importantly I think overpaying him was the first domino in also overpaying the others which has put TO in a very tight cap situation.

Yzerman is clearly looking at the long term, and while I wish they came to an agreement, I get it. I’d rather have a GM who looks 4 steps ahead opposed to a GM that just worries about it later.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Not sure why you’re leaving out so many players lol, but you’re clearly trolling when you include Nielsen. Get someone else to bite.

That's what we have under contract. Of course we can be 90% sure about some player, 95% about some, 80% about a few, 50% about some, but that's what is under contract now. And if we want to speculate that Bertuzzi isn't part of the plan, we shouldn't immediately assume all our other RFAs are.
You're right though, Nielsen's contract is expired by then.

 

[Henkka]

Yes, I do think Nylander is overpaid. More importantly I think overpaying him was the first domino in also overpaying the others which has put TO in a very tight cap situation.

Think also, it was the mistake.

If Nylander would have got 1-year deal for cheap first, then that could have kept Matthews and Marner extensions low. It was stupid to sign the mediocre guy first with an overpay. Then you had to overpay for the better stars too.. it just went totally out of hands.

 

[waltdetroit]

Sold! I'll take one McDavid please.

Get 2, in case 1 gets hurt

 

[SirloinUB]

You're more likely to get that team friendly deal the earlier you can get him to commit to something long term. He goes out and hangs another 20 goal/45-50 point season on the stat sheet, and his price is going to do nothing but climb. People can gripe about it being only because he plays X number of minutes or he plays with Mantha or whatever, but guys who consistently put 20 goals on the board are doing something right and they are going to have a market.

How high can it climb?

 

[Winger98]

Yeah, for whatever reason the picks in the 20-30 range of the 1st round tend to be duds, and more often than not, you end up with a Riley Sheahan level player. Trading Tyler for that range of 1st is silly from all angles as we almost guaranteed get a worse player out of it.

I think the ability to predict these kids 3+ years out just gets really difficult out of the top5-10 picks in any given year. We bagged on Kindl for years but, for his draft position, we got pretty good value out of that. I'm fully expecting at least one of Bert/Mantha to be dealt in the next three years, but my hope is that it's part of a package to bring in a missing piece.

Yes, I do think Nylander is overpaid. More importantly I think overpaying him was the first domino in also overpaying the others which has put TO in a very tight cap situation.

Yzerman is clearly looking at the long term, and while I wish they came to an agreement, I get it. I’d rather have a GM who looks 4 steps ahead opposed to a GM that just worries about it later.

I don't know, I look at comparable contracts for Nylander and I don't think he looks out of place. On top of that, the Mantha talks around here I've seen people throw out anything from $5.5-6.5m, and Nylander was putting up better numbers at a younger age, and just scored the number of goals people keep saying Mantha could score. If people are willing to go $6m for Mantha, it doesn't seem crazy at all to give Nylander $7m.

At some point, you have to pay guys if they are putting up numbers. I know @BinCookin was looking at possible salary structure make-ups but something to remember with a bunch of $5m players is that...they are $5m dollar players. This isn't necessarily directed at you, kliq, but I'm just saying that getting production from those guys in the regular season is one thing, it's another to count on them to do it in the playoffs.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Get 2, in case 1 gets hurt

Me: Better get 3, (one for each scoring line). 4th line plays ~5min/gp & pulverizes the opponents D. (Cizikas, Martin, Clutterbuck) types. Loads up PP1 for a 3-headed McDavid Monster etc. Cap navigation 3.0

Guess how many Top6F & Top4 D Yzerman could sign here for short/medium term & cheaper contracts to play with 3 McDavids. Go on numerous cup runs, rinse & repeat. A la Selanne/Kariya with the Avs, Shatty w/TBL etc.

 

[Winger98]

How high can it climb?

I wouldn't be surprised to see another $500k per season tacked on if he has a good year. Remember, it's not just buying a guy who is an even more proven commodity, but you're also buying into more UFA years at that point. That, or you're looking at a shorter contract that will look to dump him into UFA at a pretty young age (and probably increasing the chances we're going to deal him rather than pay a real premium to keep him from free agency).

Personally, if he has another good season and it costs $500k more than it would have cost this year...so be it. I like the guy and I think he's a guy you win with. But it also cuts into the idea of saving a dime this year to pay a quarter later.

 

[Holden Caufield]

This is a fair ruling.

Bertuzzi is a solid all around player and great hockey sense. Does a little bit of everything and can play any role.

But he is not a game changer and does not elevate a team to another tier. He does not have game breaking elite offensive skills and won’t drive his own line....These things he will never be.

history has shown it is not a good idea to give these players long term high dollar contracts. I would do longer term at this rate or maybe up to 4M. But nowhere north of that.

 

[Henkka]

This is a fair ruling.

Bertuzzi is a solid all around player and great hockey sense. Does a little bit of everything and can play any role.

But he is not a game changer and does not elevate a team to another tier. He does not have game breaking elite offensive skills and won’t drive his own line....These things he will never be.

But when a big moment comes, he is the guy who raises the bar at highest.

Former Memorial Cup hero and AHL Calder Cup MVP.

Don't sell this guy short.

 

[Holden Caufield]

But when a big moment comes, he is the guy who raises the bar at highest.

Former Memorial Cup hero and AHL Calder Cup MVP.

Don't see this guy short.

Don’t overpay him long term either.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

We have to consider that Bert will likely be playing w/o Larkin & Mantha in 2-3 yrs. He could be our #6/#7 F by then in terms of TOI also. At that point, how much will he produce? Granted, Bert's impact is far greater than what's on the basic stats sheet & that's why he's a coaches/teammates dream & fan favorite. $4.9 x 5-6yrs is very fair for both sides.

+Top6 UFA's?
Larkin
Mantha
Zadina
Raymond
Veleno
C 2021 1st
C 2022 1st ?
Bert
Fabbri
Berggren
Ras

 

[Henkka]

Production is only one thing. More interested how much our guys prevent opposite points.

 

[Shaman464]

Bert is the guy you trade in a year or two to a bubble team for a good prospect and a middle 1st round pick. I fully agree with everyone who says he's not a guy you give a contract longer than 3-4 years to.

 

[Gniwder]

View attachment 374862



Me: Better get 3, (one for each scoring line). 4th line plays ~5min/gp & pulverizes the opponents D. (Cizikas, Martin, Clutterbuck) types. Loads up PP1 for a 3-headed McDavid Monster etc. Cap navigation 3.0

Guess how many Top6F & Top4 D Yzerman could sign here for short/medium term & cheaper contracts to play with 3 McDavids. Go on numerous cup runs, rinse & repeat. A la Selanne/Kariya with the Avs, Shatty w/TBL etc.

I still want a team with 20 Larkins. He can't be any worse than Howie as a goalie.

Honestly, I'd settle for one elite player. THere's really nothing to watch this season, half the guys playing won't even be on the team the next season. Not sure if it's even worth it to get NHL TV this season...

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

In 22-23

???? - Larkin - ????
???? - ???? -????
????- Veleno - ????
???? - ???? - ????
????, Nielsen

???? - Seider
???? - ????
Johansson - ?????
McIsaac
Pretty
????
????

I really wonder what Yzerman is seeing if he's not seeing Bertuzzi in the future plans.

How do you know Bertuzzi isn't in Yzerman future plans? First off Bertuzzi is still a RFA next summer he's not getting no one year deal he'll either get 2 years or a long term deal. So that still takes Bertuzzi up to the 2022 NHL season. Mantha will be resigned long term. Where's Raymond and Hronek? Nielsen is gone tons of players still on their ELCs that's you're not even accounting for on here. Pretty vague roster here if you ask me doubt there's not this much uncertainty who's on it.

 

[Pavels Dog]

How do you know Bertuzzi isn't in Yzerman future plans? First off Bertuzzi is still a RFA next summer he's not getting no one year deal he'll either get 2 years or a long term deal. So that still takes Bertuzzi up to the 2022 NHL season. Mantha will be resigned long term. Where's Raymond and Hronek? Nielsen is gone tons of players still on their ELCs that's you're not even accounting for on here. Pretty vague roster here if you ask me doubt there's not this much uncertainty who's on it.

I responded to someone who speculated that Bert might not be part of Yzerman's plan. I'm struggling to see what he, or anyone else, is penciling in on our roster that would push Bert out of it.
Made a mistake with Nielsen, but the rest is what we have under contract.

Hronek? Yes he will probably be there.
Raymond? Yes he will probably be there.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

I responded to someone who speculated that Bert might not be part of Yzerman's plan. I'm struggling to see what he, or anyone else, is penciling in on our roster that would push Bert out of it.
Made a mistake with Nielsen, but the rest is what we have under contract.

Hronek? Yes he will probably be there.
Raymond? Yes he will probably be there.

Would imagine Bert is on the team at least for another 3 years or so, 1 year now and at least 2 year next summer when Yzerman resigns him. After that it's any ones guess.

 

[Henkka]

Would imagine Bert is on the team at least for another 3 years or so, 1 year now and at least 2 year next summer when Yzerman resigns him. After that it's any ones guess.

I think Bert will be is on this team for 6-8 years, will win a Stanley Cup and after the Cup win he will be traded like Alex Killorn, because our other prospects have too much salary raise pressure. During his decade-long career with Red Wings, he will create a hard-working never-surrender culture on this team, which other Yzerman-drafted kids will follow.

Many fans will cry after him, when Yzerman will let him go. But he'll let him go, when the time is right.

 

[MBH]

Yes, I do think Nylander is overpaid. More importantly I think overpaying him was the first domino in also overpaying the others which has put TO in a very tight cap situation.

Yzerman is clearly looking at the long term, and while I wish they came to an agreement, I get it. I’d rather have a GM who looks 4 steps ahead opposed to a GM that just worries about it later.

Nylander just scored 31-28-59 in 68 games
Outside of the one year he had the hold out, Nylander has proven himself to be a legit top 6 or even top 3 forward.

The other thing is, Nylander's around 52 percent on faceoffs over the last 3 years.

There's no way he's overpaid.

 

[kliq]

Nylander just scored 31-28-59 in 68 games
Outside of the one year he had the hold out, Nylander has proven himself to be a legit top 6 or even top 3 forward.

The other thing is, Nylander's around 52 percent on faceoffs over the last 3 years.

There's no way he's overpaid.

I feel (and maybe I’m wrong) that you are making your assessment based on 2020.

The context behind my point was the negotiations between Nylanders camp and Dubas. When he signed his contract, he was overpaid.

Your stats are a bit deceiving. Nylander was 50% in face offs last year, but he only took about 100, very small sample size. Guy isn’t primarily used on face offs.

Regardless, arguing Nylanders worth is semantics, I really don’t care enough to debate that (go to the TO boards lol, you’ll find loads of fans ripping him). I was just using the mistake/domino effect his contract had on TO as an example of why I have no issue with how Yzerman handled Bertuzzi.