Prospect Info: Ben Harpur

[crump]

Anton Stralman.

He was a 3rd pairing guy here, getting 12-15 minutes a game and some AHL time. Then he went to CBus, NYR, and Tampa where he played as a top 4. In Tampa he averaged like 22 minutes or more most of the time. That's more ice time than Gardiner in the last 4 years.

Like you said, though, it's an occasional exception. He wasn't that criticised when he was here, and it was more a case of giving up on him too soon. We weren't the only ones, as Calgary, CBus, and NJD all declined to give him a contract when they had the chance.

I hated that Stralman trade, thought we gave up on him too soon. But as others have said he didn't fair well in Calgary or Columbus either.

Apparently Stralman had an undiagnosed respiratory condition (hello Andreas Johnsson) that the Rangers found a doctor to treat. He then went on to the Stud he has been since with Tampa. He is still getting treatment for it I believe.

Stint with Rangers gave Lightning's Stralman a career

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I always find it funny when the progressive analytics crowd talks about "playing with the puck" as if ignoring the part of the equation where you first manage to get the puck.

Yes that's why you need a good mix of guys. You need guys who can get pucks and you always need guys who can play with the puck. But if you really look at data you will be shocked at how many seconds per game the puck is actually on a guys stick. It is much much lower than you may think even the puck hogs. That is why positional hockey is really the key.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

It's wierd the people who hate on analytics ignore stuff like possession and corsi, when it's the main way to win hockey games.

Players only have puck on their stick for 15 - 30 seconds per game. Some guys like Marner a bit more. Possession is a difficult number to track exactly as puck is on no ones stick for vast majority of the game. I don't think people hate on analytics but I believe it is still in its very early stages of development. So there are a lot of learning curves to it like almost everything new.

 

[biotk]

there have been many top Corsi/possession teams in the past that don't even make the playoffs, LA led the league in CF% and failed to make the playoffs a couple of years ago ...

In 2017/18 3 of the top 4 corsi teams (Carolina, Calgary and Chicago) not only missed the playoffs, but all missed by a mile.

I am a big proponent of advanced stats, but I have never found Corsi to have much value at all.

 

[Joey Hoser]

Players only have puck on their stick for 15 - 30 seconds per game. Some guys like Marner a bit more. Possession is a difficult number to track exactly as puck is on no ones stick for vast majority of the game. I don't think people hate on analytics but I believe it is still in its very early stages of development. So there are a lot of learning curves to it like almost everything new.

I've never really heard of anyone caring much about actual time with the puck on your stick. "Possession" kind of refers to just sort of generally keeping the puck out of your end and in the offensive zone, which is indirectly tracked in various ways.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I've never really heard of anyone caring much about actual time with the puck on your stick. "Possession" kind of refers to just sort of generally keeping the puck out of your end and in the offensive zone, which is indirectly tracked in various ways.

The NHL off ice crew tracks puck possession for each team and player every game much like shots and goals. But it is 1 guys measure. If you had 10 people track puck possession independently you would have 10 different results for every game. It is because it is a deemed control definition. You can have puck possession in your own end either on your stick or by passing or skating with it. and then you can have a loose puck where team which had possession is deemed to still control it until the opposing team clearly takes it back.

 

[54thecup]

Players only have puck on their stick for 15 - 30 seconds per game. Some guys like Marner a bit more. Possession is a difficult number to track exactly as puck is on no ones stick for vast majority of the game. I don't think people hate on analytics but I believe it is still in its very early stages of development. So there are a lot of learning curves to it like almost everything new.

With PPT (puck & player tracking) coming, I think you will see a revolution in possession data that may make corsi obsolete. This will be a very interesting year in that regard as teams, betting institutions, pundits and fans learn to leverage the new data.

 

[moon111]

There's been plenty of season when the entire right-defense has had hands of stones and wingers like Kessel or Nylander have been acting like it was Kaberle, Rielly or Gardiner with the puck. Countless 6th defensemen have crushed the opposing forwards, had seconds to make a play, and the wingers are acting like they're about to be sprung for a breakaway. Some fans gets upset with these 6th defensemen for chipping the puck off the boards, etc. Personally I'm often more pissed that the forwards weren't there to help out.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

With PPT (puck & player tracking) coming, I think you will see a revolution in possession data that may make corsi obsolete. This will be a very interesting year in that regard as teams, betting institutions, pundits and fans learn to leverage the new data.

So true. Anything that takes the human element out of the numbers should make it more accurate. I suspect there will be significant changes in the numbers next year.

 

[Joey Hoser]

The NHL off ice crew tracks puck possession for each team and player every game much like shots and goals. But it is 1 guys measure. If you had 10 people track puck possession independently you would have 10 different results for every game. It is because it is a deemed control definition. You can have puck possession in your own end either on your stick or by passing or skating with it. and then you can have a loose puck where team which had possession is deemed to still control it until the opposing team clearly takes it back.

Well, sure, but the point is that I've never really heard anyone care all that much about possession in that literal sense. It's more about like, for example, making a pass to get the puck out of the d zone instead of off the glass and out, which leads to entering the offensive zone with control more often, which means more time in the offensive zone, more chances to score... Stuff like that.

 

[crump]

You see a Gardiner with the puck, you head to the opposing blue line, you see a Marincin, or Harpur, you stand in the bloody crease.

 

[Stephen]

I've never really heard of anyone caring much about actual time with the puck on your stick. "Possession" kind of refers to just sort of generally keeping the puck out of your end and in the offensive zone, which is indirectly tracked in various ways.

Funny enough, I think of possession like those EA Sports FIFA soccer games where they actually track your time with the ball. I suppose in the future when they have biometric readouts and can actually record pure possession or time/percentage in the opponent's zone, possession won't be inferred by other things.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Well, sure, but the point is that I've never really heard anyone care all that much about possession in that literal sense. It's more about like, for example, making a pass to get the puck out of the d zone instead of off the glass and out, which leads to entering the offensive zone with control more often, which means more time in the offensive zone, more chances to score... Stuff like that.

Agreed the key is type of possession. There have always been what is commonly referred to as perimeter players and teams. They have possession a lot but nothing occurs via a high danger scoring chance or a kill zone chance. So somehow we will figure out a system and way to track possession combined with high danger chances to reflect an offensive strength of a team or player. Same truth holds on defense except exact reverse - possess puck but combined with giving up limited high danger chances against. This is a new field and it is still evolving.

 

[54thecup]

So somehow we will figure out a system and way to track possession combined with high danger chances to reflect an offensive strength of a team or player.

I believe PPT will do just that. I'm sure NHL R & D groups are working on the algorithms to assign possession at each sample point.

With that we can look at the context of a scoring chance. For ex: tips, one timers, screens, etc.

We will then be able to much better quantify the scoring % ( right now the only factor is the position the puck was shot from).

So I am seeing how the tracking data can start doing what you're asking for very shortly. I'm curious if others see it that way as well.

 

[Joey Hoser]

Funny enough, I think of possession like those EA Sports FIFA soccer games where they actually track your time with the ball. I suppose in the future when they have biometric readouts and can actually record pure possession or time/percentage in the opponent's zone, possession won't be inferred by other things.

Well I don't think effectively tracking literal possession of the puck is something anyone even particularly wants. As I said in another post, an outlet pass instead of off the glass and out, leads to better "possession" for your team in terms of playing in the offensive zone. You can be a good possession player without literally possessing the puck any more often, so it's really not that important.

 

[jaric1862]

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.tsn.ca/harpur-leaning-on-physicality-in-battle-for-leafs-roster-spot-1.1357078?tsn-amp

Kristen Shilton wrote a little piece on him if anyone’s interested

 

[nuck]

A 3p guy at best on the softest team in the league. I don't see how anyone could be upset about this addition. He cost nothing and if he can mix it up at all he is unique in the system. Polak was a bit of a fire hydrant and Marincin plays no contact hockey so the bar is set pretty low. As long as the top 4 don't suck so bad they lose minutes to the third pair it should be fine. 15:00 or less and leave it all on the ice .

Ceci is the concern here because they will be dumping the minutes on him to justify the trade. I have no idea what to expect.

 

[ZippityDooDa]

A 3p guy at best on the softest team in the league. I don't see how anyone could be upset about this addition. He cost nothing and if he can mix it up at all he is unique in the system. Polak was a bit of a fire hydrant and Marincin plays no contact hockey so the bar is set pretty low. As long as the top 4 don't suck so bad they lose minutes to the third pair it should be fine. 15:00 or less and leave it all on the ice .

Ceci is the concern here because they will be dumping the minutes on him to justify the trade. I have no idea what to expect.

While we're going to score a ton of goals, Freddy better be ready to face a ton of quality chances.

 

[qqaz]

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.tsn.ca/harpur-leaning-on-physicality-in-battle-for-leafs-roster-spot-1.1357078?tsn-amp

Kristen Shelton wrote a little piece on him if anyone’s interested

Thanks for posting this.

I don't think Harpur makes the team out of camp. I think Liljiegren or Schmaltz get the right spot on the 3rd pair. But If Harpur does get the job, now I'll know why.

We do need a steady PK guy, and the team is definately lacking in grit. I'm not a big believer that a team needs much grit. But it is an element that we lack. If Harpur makes the team, I'll root for the guy.

 

[MyBudJT]

@qqaz

Who do you have making the team at LD with Dermott injured?

 

[FifthLine]

Funny enough, I think of possession like those EA Sports FIFA soccer games where they actually track your time with the ball. I suppose in the future when they have biometric readouts and can actually record pure possession or time/percentage in the opponent's zone, possession won't be inferred by other things.

This is already being done.

There's a lot of ways things are being tracked, along with different kinds of stats that alot of teams are using, that just havent hit mainstream yet.

 

[ZippityDooDa]

@qqaz

Who do you have making the team at LD with Dermott injured?

My name a qqaz

Harpur/Gravel/Kivihalme for LD
Schmaltz/Marincin/Holl for RD

Pretty wide open at the moment.

 

[kb]

My name a qqaz

Harpur/Gravel/Kivihalme for LD
Schmaltz/Marincin/Holl for RD

Pretty wide open at the moment.

Not to mention Liljegren also at RD.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

While we're going to score a ton of goals, Freddy better be ready to face a ton of quality chances.

It has been like this for years with freddy and this year will be no different

 

[ZippityDooDa]

It has been like this for years with freddy and this year will be no different

I'd say, a little worse.