I think people are looking at this "#1 QBs don't always pan out/don't win SBs/don't outperform later QBs/etc" thing all wrong.
First of all, the QB1 in drafts are all different, much like how Bedard was different than Slaf. They're not all built the same. Comparing Luck to Goff, for example, is just not a valid comparison. There are clear tiers of QB prospects, but because of how important and valued the position is, where they're drafted is similar despite their talent difference. So stop looking at QB1 hit rates because that's just not a valid way to think about it. What's more accurate (even if it's still a bit apples to oranges) is looking at how QBs perform in their QB tiers. Obviously this is subjective, but Williams is in the tier below the truly generational guys (Luck, Lawrence), and generally those guys hit and become very good to elite.
In addition, teams that draft QB1s are built different. So far, Jalen Hurts has had a more successful career win-wise than Andrew Luck even though Hurts was a 2nd round pick, but Luck went to a horrible team for essentially his entire career while Hurts has been on an elite team his entire career. Same (to an extent) with Mahomes, Dak, Lamar, Rodgers, Russ, Purdy, etc. A lot of guys who are drafted later/not top 3 are successful partially because the teams around them can support them and allow them to grow. There's obviously a nature vs nurture debate here (would Mahomes become Mahomes if he went to Chicago?), but the fact is that many QB1s go into bad situations that stunt their development.
We have a unique situation here to draft an elite-if-not-generational QB talent in Williams and pair him with a roster that is arguably on the cusp of being a playoff contender already. Add in another offseason of FA (where we have a ton of cap space), an additional top 10 pick, and the growth of our young players, and there's a real chance that we could have the best situation a QB of Williams' caliber has had in recent memory.
We're so lucky that we don't once again have to worry about the age-old issue of being bad enough to get a good QB prospect but have them enter a terrible situation vs be good enough to have a good situation but not be bad enough to get a quality QB prospect (or trade everything to move up). I legitimately cannot think of the last time that has happened for any franchise. Passing over this uniquely advantageous situation for Justin Fields and an elite WR is insane. We could set this franchise up to finally have a QB that we can win because of, and it'd be inexcusable to pass that up.
