Blue Jays Discussion: Baseball is back. Yay Controversy.

[Discoverer]

If it makes anyone feel better, Wuilmer Becerra has struggled in his first six games at A+.

 

[zeke]

Man Syndergaard is special. Onley saying he would take him over everyone in baseball on TSN

Not even mad; we have Donaldson in another trade. I would stick with Donaldson over Syndergaard.

It's just... Dickey never came close to what we thought we would get. I hate when he pitches

Noah will always be the one guy I'm annoyed AA traded. A rare misstep where AA traded the underrated kid instead of the overrated kids (Wallace, TDA, Norris, Hoffman, etc.). He was my favorite prospect at the time and I'll always love the guy. Still think Stroman is better, though. Noah depends all on power pitching, and his fastball as fast as it is has proven to be quite homer prone so far, especially in the warmer months. And he doesn't have a very deep arsenal. Any injury or anything which hurts his velo might take a big toll on him.

Here's how they've done so far in their careers as SP:

Stro: 27gs, 6.3ip/gs, 81era-, 77fip-, 3.7fwar, 4.1ra9war
Noah: 27gs, 6.3ip/gs, 80era-, 77fip-, 4.2fwar, 3.6ra9war

And Stro put up those numbers in the AL East, not the NL East.

(Of course, I enjoyed having a guy as our GM who astoundingly managed to collect all of Stroman, Syndergaard, Sanchez, and Osuna within a year or two. )

 

[metafour]

There was risk in trading Sanchez or Thor, but at the time, Sanchez looked like the better bet. Who would've thought Noah would have jumped 5mph to sit at 99 after leaving A ball, and improve his secondary stuff to this degree?

I think its highly debatable to claim that Sanchez looked like the better bet for the simple fact that high command/control looked atrocious whereas Syndergaard was already showing a highly abnormal ability to command his fastball. What makes Syndergaard scary is his ability to command his absurd arsenal; and he was already showing those glimpses as a super-young and really inexperienced prospect when we had him. The jump in velocity isn't rally surprising as he was already touching 96/97 when we had him and there was presumably more in the tank given his god-like physical frame.

The biggest surprise has been the development of his secondary stuff, particularly his slider. That was really the only talking-point against him: that he was having trouble spinning a breaking ball (this is where Sanchez had an advantage, even-though he really couldn't command his curveball at all) and his changeup only looked average. I think its a testament to people underrating the ability of a pitcher with an obviously great arm AND pitchability to refine his secondary pitches; as we've seen quite a few pitchers pick up dynamic secondary pitches well into their late 20's (like Marco Estrada and his changeup).

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Noah will always be the one guy I'm annoyed AA traded. A rare misstep where AA traded the underrated kid instead of the overrated kids (Wallace, TDA, Norris, Hoffman, etc.). He was my favorite prospect at the time and I'll always love the guy. Still think Stroman is better, though. Noah depends all on power pitching, and his fastball as fast as it is has proven to be quite homer prone so far, especially in the warmer months. And he doesn't have a very deep arsenal. Any injury or anything which hurts his velo might take a big toll on him.

Here's how they've done so far in their careers as SP:

Stro: 27gs, 6.3ip/gs, 81era-, 77fip-, 3.7fwar, 4.1ra9war
Noah: 27gs, 6.3ip/gs, 80era-, 77fip-, 4.2fwar, 3.6ra9war

And Stro put up those numbers in the AL East, not the NL East.

(Of course, I enjoyed having a guy as our GM who astoundingly managed to collect all of Stroman, Syndergaard, Sanchez, and Osuna within a year or two. )

I respect your opinion of Stroman being better then Syndergaard and I am a huge Stroman fan....but if you watch the two of them pitch this year, the gap between them really isn't that small it is a massive difference in quality that really anybody can see. Thor is well on his way to being a top 5 pitcher in baseball, I doubt Stroman reaches that.

 

[zeke]

I respect your opinion of Stroman being better then Syndergaard and I am a huge Stroman fan....but if you watch the two of them pitch this year, the gap between them really isn't that small it is a massive difference in quality that really anybody can see. Thor is well on his way to being a top 5 pitcher in baseball, I doubt Stroman reaches that.

Stroman has more and better pitches, and the numbers speak for themselves anyways.

Though I'm sure Stroman would enjoy pitching to the phils and marlins instead of the yanks and sox, too.

 

[TootooTrain]

Mike Wright - 2 games started, 9.45 era 2.85 whip.
Ubaldo Jimenez - 12 games started, 3.89 era 1.33 whip.
Chris Tillman - 20 games started, 5.79 era 1.38 whip.
(numbers are vs toronto)

I want to see some fireworks.

Jays are going; Stroman, Dickey, Estrada.

 

[Mach85]

I think its highly debatable to claim that Sanchez looked like the better bet for the simple fact that high command/control looked atrocious whereas Syndergaard was already showing a highly abnormal ability to command his fastball. What makes Syndergaard scary is his ability to command his absurd arsenal; and he was already showing those glimpses as a super-young and really inexperienced prospect when we had him. The jump in velocity isn't rally surprising as he was already touching 96/97 when we had him and there was presumably more in the tank given his god-like physical frame.

The biggest surprise has been the development of his secondary stuff, particularly his slider. That was really the only talking-point against him: that he was having trouble spinning a breaking ball (this is where Sanchez had an advantage, even-though he really couldn't command his curveball at all) and his changeup only looked average. I think its a testament to people underrating the ability of a pitcher with an obviously great arm AND pitchability to refine his secondary pitches; as we've seen quite a few pitchers pick up dynamic secondary pitches well into their late 20's (like Marco Estrada and his changeup).

IIRC, Sanchez was universally thought to be the better prospect of the Lansing three. It's hard to tell with pitchers that young of course. Syndergaard's secondary stuff had a loooong way to go at the time, and I think there was a better chance than not at the time that he wouldn't be able to figure it out to this extent to be so dominant. To think otherwise is probably hindsight.

 

[metafour]

Syndergaard is CLEARLY above Stroman. Its not even up for debate.

He's not even "homer prone". I pointed this out months ago when I analyzed his season last year. Given everything we know about HR-rates, his 1.14 HR/9 last season was clearly an outlier (as we see so far this year wherein he's given up zero in 20 innings). Its also the only thing that falsely deflated his WAR as it dragged down his FIP and therefore didn't accurately portray just how well he was pitching. I told you guys months ago that his elite SIERA was a much better portrayal of his pitching ability; and sure enough you're seeing that carry on into this season where he looks like the best pitcher in baseball.

 

[Muston Atthews]

Syndergaard is CLEARLY above Stroman. Its not even up for debate.

He's not even "homer prone". I pointed this out months ago when I analyzed his season last year. Given everything we know about HR-rates, his 1.14 HR/9 last season was clearly an outlier (as we see so far this year wherein he's given up zero in 20 innings). Its also the only thing that falsely deflated his WAR as it dragged down his FIP and therefore didn't accurately portray just how well he was pitching. I told you guys months ago that his elite SIERA was a much better portrayal of his pitching ability; and sure enough you're seeing that carry on into this season where he looks like the best pitcher in baseball.

We get it, "you told us"

 

[metafour]

IIRC, Sanchez was universally thought to be the better prospect of the Lansing three. It's hard to tell with pitchers that young of course. Syndergaard's secondary stuff had a loooong way to go at the time, and I think there was a better chance than not at the time that he wouldn't be able to figure it out to this extent to be so dominant. To think otherwise is probably hindsight.

By the time of the trade it wasn't as "universal" as you describe. Sanchez was showing little to no improvement in his control or command. He had slightly more movement on his fastball and could spin a big curveball, but again he had zero feel for commanding that curveball. Syndergaard didn't have that "wow" breaking ball, but he was already commanding his heavy mid 90's fastball which is more or less the most important tool you can possess as a pitcher.

It basically came down to whether or not you believed that Sanchez would learn to command his stuff, or whether Syndergaard would improve his secondary pitches.

 

[zeke]

Syndergaard is CLEARLY above Stroman. Its not even up for debate.

Career as SP

Stro: 27gs, 6.3ip/gs, 81era-, 77fip-, 3.7fwar, 4.1ra9war
Noah: 27gs, 6.3ip/gs, 80era-, 77fip-, 4.2fwar, 3.6ra9war

Last 10 starts

Stro: 7.3ip/gs, 70era-, 77fip-
Noah: 6.4ip/gs, 75era-, 70fip-

And again, Stro is doing this in the toughest offensive division in baseball, Noah in the easiest.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

If two players get similar results, does it really matter if one has better tools/looks better while doing it?

 

[theaub]

Average Attendance / Game Cost Rank & Amount (Payroll Rank & Amount in brackets)

1. LAD: 49,028 / #29 $55 (#1 $248)
2. STL: 44,270 / #11 $81 (#9 $149)
3. SFG: 41,598 / #7 $91 (#5 $172)
4. TOR: 39,193 / #4 $109 (#13 $140)
5. NYY: 38,879 / #3 $109 (#2 $228)
6. CHC: 38,348 / #2 $116 (#7 $167)
7. LAA: 38,093 / #30 $48 (#6 $168)
8. KCR: 34,659 / #8 $89 (#14 $138)
9. BOS: 34,478 / #1 $157 (#3 $200)
10.TEX: 33,260 / #21 $66 (#8 $163)


I wonder if we're gonna hear more about "Payroll Parameters" this offseason as our free agents run for greener pastures.

Probably be 40K on Friday, sellouts Saturday/Sunday as well based on current sales.

What is game cost rank?

 

[Mach85]

By the time of the trade it wasn't as "universal" as you describe. Sanchez was showing little to no improvement in his control or command. He had slightly more movement on his fastball and could spin a big curveball, but again he had zero feel for commanding that curveball. Syndergaard didn't have that "wow" breaking ball, but he was already commanding his heavy mid 90's fastball which is more or less the most important tool you can possess as a pitcher.

It basically came down to whether or not you believed that Sanchez would learn to command his stuff, or whether Syndergaard would improve his secondary pitches.

I recall the rankings having Sanchez above Syndergaard, but I could be wrong if you'd like to correct me. I'm just going off my memory here.

You need more than 1 pitch as a starter, no matter how good that fastball is. And a lot of people thought Syndergaard wouldn't get to the point where he'd develop his secondary stuff good enough. And he was sitting at 94 at the time of the trade.

 

[theaub]

Sanchez and Syndergaard were incredibly close, with Sanchez a touch higher.

Norris was higher than all of them IIRC

 

[frost king]

All the trades AA made, have all been basically disasters except for the Donaldson move, and that all depends on whether we can sign him long term, or he walks like all Blue Jays have. We can usually sign them for the 1st term of duty, but when it comes to renewing the contract for the 2nd time, they leave. History has a way of repeating itself.

 

[Eyedea]

Sanchez and Syndergaard were incredibly close, with Sanchez a touch higher.

Norris was higher than all of them IIRC

Norris was a complete afterthought (compared to other arms in the system) after the 2012 season and had to completely rework his mechanics. Sanchez/Syndergaard/Nicolino/Osuna/Stroman ranked ahead of him in 2013. I think even Nolin landed on BP's list.

 

[metafour]

I recall the rankings having Sanchez above Syndergaard, but I could be wrong if you'd like to correct me. I'm just going off my memory here.

2013 was the first time they both made the BA Top 100; this was right after the trade was made. Syndergaard was 54th o that list, Sanchez was 65th.

 

[zeke]

Probably be 40K on Friday, sellouts Saturday/Sunday as well based on current sales.

What is game cost rank?

took it from here:

http://fortune.com/2016/04/03/mlb-ballparks-tickets/

 

[ShaneFalco]

Yeah, I think a lot of people will be looking at it as a "Where does Travis fit now?" question rather than "What should happen with Goins and Barney?" Which, of course, is ridiculous.

Actually, a relatively large segment of the fanbase will take it a step further into "What could we get for Tulo?" territory.

It's been so long since Travis has played, I think a lot of people forget how good he can be

 

[BayStreetBully]

Re: Syndergaard

The way I see it, you win some, you lose some. We lost the Syndergaard trade, and we won the Donaldson trade.

With the ripple effect resulting from doing things differently, would we have experienced 2015? Last year re-vitalized this fan base, and won over both an older and a newer set of fans. I wouldn't change that experience for anything, not even Syndergaard.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Stroman has more and better pitches, and the numbers speak for themselves anyways.

Though I'm sure Stroman would enjoy pitching to the phils and marlins instead of the yanks and sox, too.

0.82 FIP, 1.58 xFIP
- 13 K/9
- 7.25 K/BB
- 98.3 MPH fb
- 19.3 SwStr%
- 60% GB Rate

He has been elite at literally everything so far this year meanwhile Stroman has been decent. I am not arguing that going back they were comparable but what the two pitchers are showing right now, it is pretty clear which pitcher a)has the higher ceiling and b)is better right now. Neither is Stroman.

 

[Mach85]

2013 was the first time they both made the BA Top 100; this was right after the trade was made. Syndergaard was 54th o that list, Sanchez was 65th.

System rankings when they were both in Lansing is what I'm talking about, because that's the evaluations we had to go on at the time of the trade, and Baseball America and Fangraphs both had Sanchez ahead. I'm not going to bother looking for any others, because I'm not finding my memory contradicted.

 

[zeke]

0.82 FIP, 1.58 xFIP
- 13 K/9
- 7.25 K/BB
- 98.3 MPH fb
- 19.3 SwStr%
- 60% GB Rate

He has been elite at literally everything so far this year meanwhile Stroman has been decent. I am not arguing that going back they were comparable but what the two pitchers are showing right now, it is pretty clear which pitcher a)has the higher ceiling and b)is better right now. Neither is Stroman.

He's no Vincent Velazquez, though.

And Dexter Fowler is the best player in baseball.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

He's no Vincent Velazquez, though.

And Dexter Fowler is the best player in baseball.

Strawman's are fun.